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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Back to plan B and I appreciate those stay on topic. Did Jimmy Nelson land anywhere? With his injuries he might be a reliever now but there is talent in that arm.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think Byron Buxton plays 140 games and is team MVP.
  3. jorgenswest
    Hill would be insurance against injury for the second half. There are so many question marks and their need for a Hill in the second half appears greater than most. They should top other team’s offers and win this deal.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they trade Rosario unless they sign a significant bat and feel Larnach or Kirilloff or Rooker are near ready. They do have three tiers of prospect depth at corner OF in Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker. It is from that depth that they are best positioned to make a trade. It is also that depth where they are best positioned to fill the void of a traded starter.
  5. jorgenswest
    Sano would have a similar trade value as Rosario. They both are in arbitration and have two years of control. Sano's number at baseball trade values is 1 little less at 8.1 but he has not been nearly as consistent as Rosario the last three years. Mike Foltynewicz has the same value as Sano. I agree that Lewis should be available and it might take him instead of Kirilloff to really help the rotation. Baseball trade values has him at 54.1 and he would have to lead any kind of package that brings back a Syndegaard(77) or Clevinger(82.5). It might take Lewis plus Buxton or Lewis plus Graterol to open that door. I wouldn't advocate for either of those trades. On Price and Archer... David Price has the lowest trade value among starters at -60. He certainly is a valuable pitcher but the Red Sox are going to need to pay down some salary and still get little in return for prospects. Chris Archer at 3.0 might be an interesting pitcher to take a chance on for Nick Gordon (4.6). According to baseball trade values Chris Archer has similar trade value to the recently dealt Corey Kluber (2.7). I appreciate all of those that can put aside the front office discussion for this space and speculate trades for a starter.
  6. jorgenswest
    Robbie Ray seems to be available. He slots between Larnach and Balazovic in trade value. Perhaps a trade of one of those two for Ray can be accomplished. Trade now and the Twins will get the opportunity to make a qualifying offer as well as try to work an extension.
  7. jorgenswest
    Starting pitching is always a premium. Price has a significant contract cost. Boyd and Gray have a significant prospect cost with a starting value around Kirilloff. I don't see it is overpaying though. It is the cost of starting pitching. I hope the Twins enter that market one more time after adding Pineda and Odorizzi this offseason. The Twins have the prospect capital to pay up and get one more starter.
  8. jorgenswest
    Good thought on Toussaint. He is a close comp in value to Rosario at 11.7 and is listed at medium availability. I should have added the availability status of others according to baseball trade values. In the Kirilloff group Lucchesi, Boyd and Jon Gray have medium availability. The rest are low. In the Rosario group Peacock and Yamamota are listed low. None of these pitchers is so untouchable that they are unavailable. They can be had at the right price. Every year teams pay more in free agency for starting pitching. The Twins will need to pay more in a trade for starting pitching. It might take Kirilloff plus Enlow plus another but they have the prospect capital and they can find a team that will deal. It is time to make a deal. With their prospect capital it might have been the best route from the beginning.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would guess that Rosario's salary, two years of control and the ability to sign a similar player at a similar salary like Dickerson or Garcia in free agency cuts into his trade value. He is certainly a valuable player as is a guy like DeSclafini with his 3.89 ERA and 167 K's and 44 BBs in 166.2 innings but with just two years of control.
  10. jorgenswest
    Can the Twins trade Rosario and sufficiently address a spot in the rotation? I went over to baseball trade values and sorted starters finding a group of starters that is within 10% of Rosario. These are Rosario's comps according to baseball trade values. 11.5 Zach Eflin 11.1 Anthony DeSclafani 11.1 Trevor Williams 10.8 Jordan Yamamoto 10.5 Rosario 10.4 Eric Lauer 10.0 Dylan Bundy 9.6 Brad Peacock Perhaps it would be better to look at the group within about 10% of Kirilloff. 46.8 Kyle Hendricks 44.0 Dylan Cease 43.9 Frankie Montas 43.5 Kirilloff 42.5 Sonny Gray 42.2 Lance McCullers Jr. 38.2 Joey Lucchesi 37.7 Matthew Boyd 37.7 Jon Gray What do you think? Maybe they can take someone in the range of the top group and build them into a playoff caliber pitcher. Maybe they need to part with Kirilloff and get a more established starter. I am partial to Lucchesi here. He was on our little league team ages 9 to 12.
  11. jorgenswest
    It isn’t about “wouldn’t have wanted to” it is simply about control. I would absolutely get the best I can for Escobar in a lost season and no more control. Good move. I would not have traded Pressly and his additional year of control knowing that I was going to have to replace him for 2019. Really bad move.
  12. jorgenswest
    He really only used two pitches while in the majors last year. If spending some time in AAA working on the change up will help his development I would start there. Give him short starts in AAA and make sure to mix in the change up. If he shows an improved change up in the spring put him on the opening day roster but I wouldn’t plan to have him in the rotation. As for the opener that is fine but I hope they don’t worry about who is getting the win. If not getting a win has a negative impact on his performance imagine how many other things will. The main reason it reduces stress on his arm is because he starts with the bottom of the line up and sees the heart of the order and those difficult battles less often.
  13. jorgenswest
    They traded Escobar for prospects and replaced him with Marwin.
  14. jorgenswest
    Minnesota ought to be the place a guy like Walker would want to land. Opportunity and an offense that will give him some runs.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think the total pay out matters more than the year but if Price’s health risk is worse than Ryu’s then I would back off on Price. I don’t think Ryu gives more than two years of starts out of four but maybe Price does make it through 2. I guess they are both the next injury away from ending a career and the Twins should avoid both. I am finding arguments persuasive that these deals are going to work out pretty badly. I went in thinking the Twins needed to get three established and go with youth on the 5th spot but maybe two is the better plan.
  16. jorgenswest
    I can’t either but I think paying him the 96 is a similar risk to paying what it would have taken to get Bumgarner or Ryu and a better bet than Keuchel. If I was advocating for Bumgarner or Ryu then I need to advocate for Price. The cost of pitching has skyrocketed in salary and the cost in trade and prospects will rise accordingly. The Twins might have the best two deals of the winter in Odorizzi and Pineda but they need one more. On the other hand the comments about Price are persuasive. It might be better to lock up Donaldson and get Walker.
  17. jorgenswest
    We are signing the Keuchel of 2020. I don’t think the Keuchel of 2016-2017 is relevant,
  18. jorgenswest
    I think they pay the full Price now. 96 million assuming the medical checks out. I would prefer Price than Ryu at 80 million and a lot better than Keuchel. They lose the year at the end of the deal on Ryu but I would rather have three years. Price may make more starts in three years than the oft injured Ryu in four. Is Price more valuable than Donaldson plus the hope in a guy like Walker?
  19. jorgenswest
    On Keuchel holding off the Yankees for five innings in the playoffs... Maybe but he will have to be better than last year. He started two playoff games and didn’t make it through 5 in either. No DH. No Yankee line up to get through. I have serious doubts that he will be a number 3 beyond this year and fear that the salary is enough that he would continue to get starts long after he declined below league average level.
  20. jorgenswest
    I think the Donaldson signing is about a really good bat. I think Sano will be at 3B otherwise. The heart of the defensive struggle in the infield is shortstop and second base where they ranked 30th and 29th according to Fangraphs. Had Arraez been the full time starter at 2B I don’t think they could have held that 29th ranking. Donaldson does not fix the heart of the infield defense problem. They need to be better at shifting, healthy and better skilled. The skills up the middle don’t improve much if at all as a player ages. Those spots are too dependent on athleticism. We can hope that Polanco’s persistent leg troubles have healed and he will approach a mediocre level of play. Arraez is young enough to improve skill before losing some of his limited athleticism.
  21. jorgenswest
    Second base White Sox ranked 8th and Twins 29th according to Fangraphs WAR. They had a net +14 DRS compared to the Twins and 13.2 by DRS. With more Arraez at 2B this year the Twins can only go backwards here. Shortstop White Sox 29th and Twins 30th. The Twins UZR at SS was -15.9 vs. -9.2 for the White Sox. Third base White Sox 3rd. Twins 25th. Keuchel may have disagreed with the opinion that Chicago’s infield defense is worse than the Twins.
  22. jorgenswest
    Swinging strikes on the rise across the league but the last two years Keuchel’s swinging strikes rate is down. Opposing batters (non-pitchers) put up an OPS of over 800 against him last year. The decline has begun. There is little space for more decline. The Twins need to acquire a pitcher that can match up in the playoffs. Had they signed a Keuchel they would still have that need. They don’t need Keuchel for the back end the next three years. They need those opportunities to go to the young players.
  23. jorgenswest
    There is a good chance at least one will have a solid first half and get flipped for a prospect or two.
  24. jorgenswest
    Really respect the reply here. Short, genuine and humorous. I don’t find myself as passionate but it captures so well for me the passion of many.
  25. jorgenswest
    On the 40 man... Pineda would be on the restricted list. During the season he would not count on the 40. I am not certain if he would be on the 40 in the off-season. With Clippard and Romo it seems less likely that Wisler would make the team. He doesn’t have options so at some point they would likely have to DFA him. When they need a spot on the 40 it might be his spot. Harper is a candidate also but his options give him some value as a shuttle reliever.
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