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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Great. The guy hasn’t played a game for the Twins yet and he is already taking crap from our wonderful fan base. He is an option because he is hitting well. He has started games at third base this year and last and he can play catcher. He has worked hard at low pay to turn himself from organizational filler to a chance to play in the majors.
  2. jorgenswest
    If Motter isn’t called up now I don’t know when he would ever get the call. If they go with someone else that needs a 40 man spot it ought to be his spot.
  3. jorgenswest
    Does he need the 10 days or is it different with an outright? He would need that 40 man spot. I guess if they don’t select Motter, Petit can take his 40 man spot.
  4. jorgenswest
    Astudillo might be that third catcher with some experience at 3B. Motter is on the 40. Gordon has the best future. Which of those three backs up Adrianza and Escobar? Is there anyone else on the current roster that can play SS or 3B?
  5. jorgenswest
    Needs to be an infielder. Motter is on the 40. Gordon hasn’t done that well in AAA.
  6. jorgenswest
    The only possible reason is that the front office doesn’t believe that Duffey and Busenitz will not perform well at the major league level. It that is the case, they had last year to make that assessment and it is a critical failure that they did not find better alternatives this winter. On the other hand if they believe either or both can be relievers on a competitive major league team it is a critical failure to keep them in AAA behind Belisle. There is no way I can know whether Duffey or Busenitz have the talent to be a good piece in a bullpen. I do know that the Twins bullpen has cost them more games than reasonable and that responsibility is on the shoulders of the front office and coaching staff.
  7. jorgenswest
    Do they believe in the AAA relievers? I think it is clear that they don’t believe they can help. Belisle does not set a high bar for them to pass. Partial season minor league stats aren’t very helpful in describing how a player will perform in the majors. They are even less helpful for relievers. Maybe the AAA relievers really aren’t going to be helpful. Either the management fails to recognize a reliever in AAA who can truly make a difference or they have failed to develop a reliever in the minors who can truly make a difference. Whichever the case the Belisle signing shines a light on a critical failure that has crippled this season in close games.
  8. jorgenswest
    I know it is still not predictive but Adrianza adds a better glove to similar production at the plate. Projecting forward it is important to realize that this is Adrianza’s prime and likely ceiling and Polanco is a few year away from his prime.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above. Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.
  10. jorgenswest
    My plan at catcher this year is play Garver four times a week. My hope is that he earns the job for next year with his performance the remainder of the season. It is way too early to make that call. Castro is not a solution as a starter next year but would be a good backup to Garver. If they can find a better veteran than Rupp or Wilson to pair with Garver this year it would help.
  11. jorgenswest
    Their hope is in the young former top prospects. They won’t truly contend for a championship without them approaching their upside. I wouldn’t give up on Buxton’s upside until he is 27. I think Sano cares a great deal. I also think he will always have trouble with weight and conditioning and hence injuries. They need to stay the course with Kepler. Their hope is in that trio in combination with the young starters Berrios and Romero being aces. They are the recipe for a championship. The odds are not good but trading off any of the bats for lower ceiling but reliable talent won’t be enough. Stay the course.
  12. jorgenswest
    It really comes down to how much the Twins believe in Garver as a starter this year and next. If they see him as a back up, go for Realmuto. If they see him as a starter, the one year guys would be a great addition to split time with him in his rookie year. There is so much to learn and so much more prep work at catcher. They should not count on Castro as a reliable solution as a starter next year.
  13. jorgenswest
    If you believe in his bat patience. If not, look elsewhere. It is way too early to judge his performance based on data. In another 40 plate appearance you might look at strike out and walk rates but even then you have to factor in adjusting to the level. Patience.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would think 4 games a week would be the right workload if he isn’t hampered by any nagging injuries. Seems like he has been close to the rate since Castro left though I think he was held back one game after taking a foul ball in the knee.
  15. jorgenswest
    Just looked through signings from last year. There are a few near 74 where teams saved about 125000- 150000 with the pick and were able to add that amount. There is one case where the Mariners paid well below slot and gained 450000 to add to their pool. Realistically would 500K be enough to make a difference? The difference between top 10 money and slot at 20 is far more than 500K. In fact it is far more than the 74 slot value.
  16. jorgenswest
    At what number would you have sold the pick? Is there a number?
  17. jorgenswest
    I blogged a brief history of pick 20. Brief enough to copy here. The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  18. jorgenswest
    The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts. Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system. Mike Mussina posts the best career from a pick 20 and Chris Parmelee's career is at about the median ranking 23rd in WAR of 48. The last five number 20 picks have not reached majors but I didn't include them in the median calculation as they have a chance. It is kind of sobering to know that our selection today may not hit the majors for several years. In taking a closer look at the last five pick 20s only 1 of 5 has ever been on a top 100 list. Baseball America had Casey Gillespie at 74 prior to the 2017 season. Sobering. The Twins have done very well with that pick relative to the league. I hope that continues today.
  19. jorgenswest
    Another opinion on the deal... (MLBTR quoting fanrag)
  20. jorgenswest
    A year ago when Rosario hit 1000 PAs (maybe ABs) there was an article on this site and discussion on the KFAN Sunday radio show about how he had the poorest OBP among all LFs with 1000 PAs. There was a big flaw in that comparison. It wasn’t comparing all LFs at the point they reached 1000 PAs. If it had there would be several other LFs with poorer OBPs. Some like Joe Rudi had very good careers. It is so important for organizations to have patience with players 25 and under with even as many as 1000 plate appearances. The first 1000 is not a good predictor of how they will perform as they get to 1500 or 2000.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think they don’t bump him because they believe he gives them the best chance to win in his 8th inning role. Previous performance is not a good predictor of the next performance. Unless there is an injury or something that might indicate injury like drop in velocity, they should keep putting him in that role. It won’t be a matter of him working anything out if he does well in the next opportunity but rather the random variation of day to day performance.
  22. jorgenswest
    Hildenberger on WCCO this morning talking about Garver and his comfort in working with him.
  23. jorgenswest
    The 40 man piece is the key. They don’t know which injuries are ahead and what kind of flexibility they will need on the 40 man roster. If a guy is going to be added to the 40 man roster at this point, they better be extremely confident that the player is here to stay and will make an impact.
  24. jorgenswest
    I would like to see Wade by the end of the year but he comes with some questions that can’t be answered with data. The Twins staff seeing him everyday likely do have some answers. Defensively he has moved off of center field and has been reported to have a below average arm. He may be an upgrade in LF over Rosario. Is he a liability in RF and CF? Offensively there should be some concern about the number of walks absent of good power. With a high number of walks he is seeing a lot of pitches. He must be seeing a lot of pitches he should be barreling up. Is he not recognizing and attacking those pitches? Is he fouling them off when he should be driving them to gaps? He won’t see nearly as many good pitches to hit in the majors. If major league pitchers don’t have to worry about him attacking hittable pitches, they will pound the zone and his minor league walks will turn into weak contact. I would like to see him in AAA. With success, I would like to see him in September. I don’t advocate for him to be called up now. AA walks without good power doesn’t translate well to the majors.
  25. jorgenswest
    Honest question What is the most ever spent? Does it count re-signing or extending their own players?
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