jorgenswest

The lack of platoon split is much more common for hitters like Granite and LaMarre that rely on speed and contact rather than driving the ball. Neither would make a good platoon on a corner or bench bat to hit against a left handed pitcher. I am hoping that Garver can be an effective late inning pinch hitter against a lefty reliever.

Spring training matters. Spring training data available to us is meaningless. The eyes of a skilled staff seeing these players everyday matters. Jobs can and should be won in spring training. From our end, we have no means to argue one way or another who should be on the roster based on spring. We certainly shouldn’t use the small and skewed sample we see in the stat lines. Performance in spring training matters and I hope the Twins have a staff skilled in evaluating that performance because there will be little correlation to performance in the data we can see.

LaMarre bats right handed but he has had better splits the last two years against right handed pitching. Last year he was 7/40 against left handed pitching with no extra base hits, 4 walks and 14 strikeouts. Most of the at bats were in the hitter friendly PCL. He played more in 2016 and his OPS against right handed pitching was better 851 vs 752. Granite also hits better against right handed pitching but his 822/781 differential is relatively neutral. I don’t see how LaMarre’s batting right handed helps here. It should matter more how well he hits left handed pitching.

I like the moves and the depth this year. I think both Duffey and Busenitz have some upside that a stay in AAA might help them realize. It would be harder to do that at the back end of the bullpen. I expect at least one of them will return and be a sold contributor.

The Ervin situation is good relative to Nolasco/Hughes but it could turn out to be 2 good years out of 4.

It is hard to imagine so many teams missed out on Adrianza if he can match above average defense with a close to league average (for a SS). That is starter quality. He put up those PCL averages prior to being DFA’d twice A year ago. I don’t think those numbers impressed anyone or he would have acquired in trade before the DFA process. On the other hand, he is at a point in his career where he would likely be near his peak. It is possible the very best of his bat matched with good defense come perfectly timed for this opportunity. I wouldn’t trust any good numbers long term, but there is reasonable hope for a good first half.

We won’t know from data we can see but the Twins better have a pretty good idea right now.

I agree with starting the best player and I would give more weight to the better defender at the catcher position. I suspect Castro is the better defender but I really don’t know how much better.

I don’t think it is reasonable to think that the Twins can get a lot of benefit from a catcher platoon unless they go with three catchers. Let’s suppose the catcher spot is hitting near the bottom of the order against a lefty starter. Unless that pitcher is an ace, he is out of the game after two plate appearances from the catcher. The other two plate appearances are against a reliever. Most teams aren’t pinch hitting for the catcher unless they carry three so the remaining at bats are likely against a right handed pitcher. I think there is more to gain by matching the catcher with our pitcher. It can also help to switch catchers in a day game following a night game even if those two games are started by a lefty. There just isn’t enough to gain by planning to start Garver against all lefties.

I wonder if Vargas will have a beak out season like Morrison in his late 20s. I would have had more confidence in Morrison though. The strike out and walk rates distinguish the two. I don’t think Vargas will walk enough to succeed with a strike out rate near 30%. Morrison changed his approach last year and his k% went up but so did his bb%. Vargas really needed to show progress last year and the nearly 500 plate appearances between Rochester and Minnesota at age 26 were underwhelming for a DH.

They need both Granite and Cave. Their position player depth on the 40 was very thin.

Rochester got hammered by weather early last year. I think they had something like 6 postponements in the first month. Romero in AA is much more likely to get regular work and be ready if needed early.

I would add Mejia as one in the developed category also as the Twins get all of his years of control. Next year could be the year where they have 80% home grown.

I agree. The only road to winning for a small to mid revenue team is devloping minor league talent. The Twins won’t sustain success unless they develop their own pitching. Signing free agent pitchers whether short or long term will not lead to sustained success. The free agent signings this winter are great. Lynn is a great add on a short term deal. The long term success relies on their ability to develop their talent to success at the major league level.

75 or 95- the likelihood that player has a significant career is remote. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-9343-don-mccormack-tino-martinez-lance-lynn-and-the-75th-pick/

Fantastic deal.

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95. What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision? With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first pick 75 was Frederick Marden. Marden never pitched in the majors topping out in A-Ball. The first #75 pick to reach the majors is Don McCormack. McCormack might be remembered for his career major league batting average of .400. He accomplished this splitting his 2 career hits evenly over his 2 seasons. The first significant major leaguer was drafted in 1975. With 24.8 career WAR, Jason Thompson is among the very best players drafted at pick 75. There are three others with career WAR in the 20s in Tino Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Yunel Escobar. One other major league has had a significant career. Wade Davis has 11.7 career WAR. Five players with a significant career. Rounding out the top 10 are Scott Radinsky, Joe Lefebvre, Joel Johnston, A.J. Minter and the previously recognized Don McCormack. Since Yunel Escobar was drafted in 2005, the 75th pick has a cumulative total of -1.2 WAR. Yes... there might be a significant player among them. Significant players occur about once a decade at this pick. That significant player isn’t going to come from players drafted between 2006 and 2013 though. That group is ages 25-32 and done or almost done. Maybe pick 75 has just been unlucky. The Twins have never drafted 75th. Maybe they know better. Let’s increase the sample size and look at picks 74 and 76. Pick 74 has three players of 53 thus far with a career WAR of 20 or better including the very first pick 74 in 1965. The Twins drafted Graig Nettles in 1965. The Twins do know better! He finished with a career WAR of 68.0 and has a good chance to remain the MV74P at least through my lifetime. Let’s hope Akil Baddoo challenges that number. I would hate to miss out on a Nettles to add Lance Lynn. Ironically, the Twins did lose out on Nettles in order to bolster the rotation by trading him for Luis Tiant. Tiant pitched well in one season for the Twins until hit by significant injury. David Cone comes in as the number 2 pick 74. He has career WAR of 62.5. The Royals missed out on 62.6 of that WAR when they traded him for Rick Anderson and Ed Hearn. Two fantastic pick 74s but the drafting teams had little to show for the wisdom of their picks. The other player with better than 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy at 21.3. Two players are still active with a small chance to get there are John Jay(13.1) and Tyler Chatwood(10.2). How about pick 76? Chase Utley is the MV76P almost in the clubhouse at 65.4 WAR. He will get challenged by Giancarlo Stanton currently with 35.1 WAR at age 28. The only other player drafted 76 with a career WAR above 20 is Marquis Grissom at 29.4. Only 9 of the 53 players drafted pick 76 have a positive career WAR including current major league catchers Nick Hundley, James McCann and JR Murphy. The Twins have drafted 76th twice. They drafted Graig’s brother Jim Nettles in 1968. His 1.1 career WAR ranks him 8th. Let’s hope Blayne Enlow adds his name to the short list of players with a significant career. What is a pick 75 worth? Ten players with significant careers thus far among the 159 players drafted picks 74 through 76. Nettles, Cone, Utley and Stanton had seasons where they were among the best at their positions. Teams hit on a major league star about 3% of the time although two drafting teams did not recognize their star. You find a player with a solid career about 7% of the time. Around 20% of the players will have achieved positive WAR in the majors. Do you give up that pick to sign a free agent? I think so. I think you do so without blinking. It would be awful to lose out on Giancarlo Stanton but that likelihood seems so remote. If he is there at 75, he would have been there at 60. Pick him then. Losing the draft pick should have no impact on the Twins decision about signing Lynn or Cobb. It all has to be about the years and the dollars. If they can get either for two years, I would offer that contract without hesitation or thought of pick 75. *WAR as calculated by baseball reference. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_type=junreg&overall_pick=75&query_type=overall_pick

At some point I think they wait into the season. The draft pick will go away. Injuries and poor pitching will create a better market.

There will be a need for a 13th pitcher. At that point someone will need to be DFA’d if the bench is Adrianza/Aybar, Escobar, Grossman and Garver. The catcher can’t be moved. If Granite isn’t on the opening day roster he will likely be the one coming back as they go from 13 to 12 to 13. He really is most option ready to be the player that goes back and forth from the minors as the 13th position player. Last year Vargas was on that shuttle.

Granite has options so I would think he fits better as the 4th man on the bench. He can be sent to AAA when a 13th pitcher is needed. They don’t need to start the season that way though. They can start with a bench of Escobar, Adrianza, Garver and Grossman. That can last as long until there is a need for a 13th pitcher and then someone will be DFA’d. Neither Grossman or Vargas have any trade value. How could they? Good DHs can’t get a contract in this market.

I think the Twins have 14 position players on the 40man roster. The position players here are not yet ready or pretty underwhelming. They really need those position players to remain healthy.

Santana and May will be ready early in the season. The young pitchers will be in AAA. They will be ready soon. With the addition of Odorizzi, the Twins have depth in the rotation. They all need to get off to a solid start because Santana and May will be taking or pushing for a spot upon return. If Duffey doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, I would have him stretched out in AAA and ready to jump into the major league rotation also. There are a lot of question marks with Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia and Sanchez but they will need to perform with Santana, May, Duffey, Romero and Gonsalves in the wings. All of this and there is a possibility Hughes is healthy and his velocity has returned. It’s on the Twins staff now to get the most out the talents of their starters.

I am hopeful that the current staff is able to get more out of the talent on hand. Does Gibson start this season where he ended last season? Can Duffey’s performance move closer to his peripherals? What can they get out of Mejia? How do they help the pitchers that are close in AAA advance that next step?

The debate should be whether a Sanchez is worth a spot on the 40. I am having a hard time finding a spot. I don’t think I want to add him and risk losing a player with options. We are going to need pitchers with options to shuttle back and forth. I really need two spots since I would plan to sign another starter even if it is a one year deal to Tillman. We can use the 60 day DL. That clears at least one spot and maybe more. If only one, it needs to be for a better signing and not Sanchez. Pineda May(?) Hughes (?) I need a second spot for Sanchez. Players without option flexibility I might remove to add Sanchez. Kinley Vargas Hughes Worst case I add Sanchez and lose Kinley. I think I would do that.

I really appreciate your refocusing is on the topic of contingency plan. The Astros might be a good place to find pitching. I hope they fill with Garcia or a three year deal for Cobb, but a trade like that will help. It seems odd that the new folks on this site have an easier time staying on topic than the long term members. DaveW started a discussion about the front office and signing free agents or not. I would invite those interested go the and those interested in looking forward to this year’s starters continue here.