jorgenswest

75 or 95- the likelihood that player has a significant career is remote. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-9343-don-mccormack-tino-martinez-lance-lynn-and-the-75th-pick/

Fantastic deal.

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95. What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision? With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first pick 75 was Frederick Marden. Marden never pitched in the majors topping out in A-Ball. The first #75 pick to reach the majors is Don McCormack. McCormack might be remembered for his career major league batting average of .400. He accomplished this splitting his 2 career hits evenly over his 2 seasons. The first significant major leaguer was drafted in 1975. With 24.8 career WAR, Jason Thompson is among the very best players drafted at pick 75. There are three others with career WAR in the 20s in Tino Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Yunel Escobar. One other major league has had a significant career. Wade Davis has 11.7 career WAR. Five players with a significant career. Rounding out the top 10 are Scott Radinsky, Joe Lefebvre, Joel Johnston, A.J. Minter and the previously recognized Don McCormack. Since Yunel Escobar was drafted in 2005, the 75th pick has a cumulative total of -1.2 WAR. Yes... there might be a significant player among them. Significant players occur about once a decade at this pick. That significant player isn’t going to come from players drafted between 2006 and 2013 though. That group is ages 25-32 and done or almost done. Maybe pick 75 has just been unlucky. The Twins have never drafted 75th. Maybe they know better. Let’s increase the sample size and look at picks 74 and 76. Pick 74 has three players of 53 thus far with a career WAR of 20 or better including the very first pick 74 in 1965. The Twins drafted Graig Nettles in 1965. The Twins do know better! He finished with a career WAR of 68.0 and has a good chance to remain the MV74P at least through my lifetime. Let’s hope Akil Baddoo challenges that number. I would hate to miss out on a Nettles to add Lance Lynn. Ironically, the Twins did lose out on Nettles in order to bolster the rotation by trading him for Luis Tiant. Tiant pitched well in one season for the Twins until hit by significant injury. David Cone comes in as the number 2 pick 74. He has career WAR of 62.5. The Royals missed out on 62.6 of that WAR when they traded him for Rick Anderson and Ed Hearn. Two fantastic pick 74s but the drafting teams had little to show for the wisdom of their picks. The other player with better than 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy at 21.3. Two players are still active with a small chance to get there are John Jay(13.1) and Tyler Chatwood(10.2). How about pick 76? Chase Utley is the MV76P almost in the clubhouse at 65.4 WAR. He will get challenged by Giancarlo Stanton currently with 35.1 WAR at age 28. The only other player drafted 76 with a career WAR above 20 is Marquis Grissom at 29.4. Only 9 of the 53 players drafted pick 76 have a positive career WAR including current major league catchers Nick Hundley, James McCann and JR Murphy. The Twins have drafted 76th twice. They drafted Graig’s brother Jim Nettles in 1968. His 1.1 career WAR ranks him 8th. Let’s hope Blayne Enlow adds his name to the short list of players with a significant career. What is a pick 75 worth? Ten players with significant careers thus far among the 159 players drafted picks 74 through 76. Nettles, Cone, Utley and Stanton had seasons where they were among the best at their positions. Teams hit on a major league star about 3% of the time although two drafting teams did not recognize their star. You find a player with a solid career about 7% of the time. Around 20% of the players will have achieved positive WAR in the majors. Do you give up that pick to sign a free agent? I think so. I think you do so without blinking. It would be awful to lose out on Giancarlo Stanton but that likelihood seems so remote. If he is there at 75, he would have been there at 60. Pick him then. Losing the draft pick should have no impact on the Twins decision about signing Lynn or Cobb. It all has to be about the years and the dollars. If they can get either for two years, I would offer that contract without hesitation or thought of pick 75. *WAR as calculated by baseball reference. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_type=junreg&overall_pick=75&query_type=overall_pick

At some point I think they wait into the season. The draft pick will go away. Injuries and poor pitching will create a better market.

There will be a need for a 13th pitcher. At that point someone will need to be DFA’d if the bench is Adrianza/Aybar, Escobar, Grossman and Garver. The catcher can’t be moved. If Granite isn’t on the opening day roster he will likely be the one coming back as they go from 13 to 12 to 13. He really is most option ready to be the player that goes back and forth from the minors as the 13th position player. Last year Vargas was on that shuttle.

Granite has options so I would think he fits better as the 4th man on the bench. He can be sent to AAA when a 13th pitcher is needed. They don’t need to start the season that way though. They can start with a bench of Escobar, Adrianza, Garver and Grossman. That can last as long until there is a need for a 13th pitcher and then someone will be DFA’d. Neither Grossman or Vargas have any trade value. How could they? Good DHs can’t get a contract in this market.

I think the Twins have 14 position players on the 40man roster. The position players here are not yet ready or pretty underwhelming. They really need those position players to remain healthy.

Santana and May will be ready early in the season. The young pitchers will be in AAA. They will be ready soon. With the addition of Odorizzi, the Twins have depth in the rotation. They all need to get off to a solid start because Santana and May will be taking or pushing for a spot upon return. If Duffey doesn’t make the rotation out of camp, I would have him stretched out in AAA and ready to jump into the major league rotation also. There are a lot of question marks with Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson, Mejia and Sanchez but they will need to perform with Santana, May, Duffey, Romero and Gonsalves in the wings. All of this and there is a possibility Hughes is healthy and his velocity has returned. It’s on the Twins staff now to get the most out the talents of their starters.

I am hopeful that the current staff is able to get more out of the talent on hand. Does Gibson start this season where he ended last season? Can Duffey’s performance move closer to his peripherals? What can they get out of Mejia? How do they help the pitchers that are close in AAA advance that next step?

The debate should be whether a Sanchez is worth a spot on the 40. I am having a hard time finding a spot. I don’t think I want to add him and risk losing a player with options. We are going to need pitchers with options to shuttle back and forth. I really need two spots since I would plan to sign another starter even if it is a one year deal to Tillman. We can use the 60 day DL. That clears at least one spot and maybe more. If only one, it needs to be for a better signing and not Sanchez. Pineda May(?) Hughes (?) I need a second spot for Sanchez. Players without option flexibility I might remove to add Sanchez. Kinley Vargas Hughes Worst case I add Sanchez and lose Kinley. I think I would do that.

I really appreciate your refocusing is on the topic of contingency plan. The Astros might be a good place to find pitching. I hope they fill with Garcia or a three year deal for Cobb, but a trade like that will help. It seems odd that the new folks on this site have an easier time staying on topic than the long term members. DaveW started a discussion about the front office and signing free agents or not. I would invite those interested go the and those interested in looking forward to this year’s starters continue here.

At this late point hopefully they get a pitcher at a little less cost than originally expected. Some team might react and overpay but if the Twins get Lynn/Cobb for 3 years instead of 4 or 5 or Garcia/Tillman on a 1 year deal they get help this year and still can pursue that starter in trade. It is critical that a couple of prospects take a big step forward towards top 20 mlb so that the Twins have the currency to make that deal.

The late market on starters is going to create the opportunity to get a good deal with someone. That might mean a one year deal for one of the above. It might mean getting Cobb or Lynn on a three year deal instead of 4.

For the playoffs, I would love to have the 2013 Lynn or Cobb. That is the last either won a playoff game. That was 5 years and a significant injury ago. The Twins need to be projecting forward and not looking backward. Projecting forward through their mid thirties won’t be as hope filled as looking back at their primes.

I think Lorenzo Cain is a better long term bet and would get better offers. He did get 80 million over 5 year at 16 million a year. I don’t see Dozier getting that kind of deal. He may get the year amount over a shorter term.

A quick aside... K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.

They could always commit millions and many years to Lynn or Cobb who have similar 2017 xFIPs and similar 2018 steamer projections.

It does not factor in a batter’s speed as a skill. xwOBA is concerned only with what happens just after the ball leaves the bat, and what the hitter does once he leaves the box doesn’t change it all. Of course, a speedy batter is much more likely to turn a gapper into a double or a triple than a slow batter is. Any difference as a result of speed should not change. Another factor that might account for differences in xwOBA and wOBA is ballpark factors. xwOBA doesn’t care about the ballpark. Since the Twins are playing in Target Field any difference due to park should not change. The last of course is luck. This is what xwOBA hopes to measure. Which batters hit the ball better than their numbers indicate? They might expect that their numbers did not match their ability and can expect that they would this year. I also think a fourth factor might be a hitter’s spray chart. How easy is it to shift the defense in areas where the player consistently hits the ball hard? What does it mean for those Twins? Is Buxton difference mostly due to good luck or his baserunning skill? How about Mauer? How much is bad luck and how much is slow baserunning? How about Mauer vs. Rosario? Rosario’s line drives are spread from foul line to foul line. Most of Joe’s are left field to center field. Which player is easier to shift against? Wouldn’t that effect this number? It would be awesome to have a measure bad and good luck to help determine a player’s skill level? Baserunning is a skill. The ability to hit the ball to all fields is a skill. I don’t think this number factors those skills out.

They have several with options. The crowd is only a problem if they don’t have pitchers with option flexibility. They won’t have 8. They will have depth. Kinley can’t be optioned. He is going to have to win a higher leverage spot so that the low leveraged can be optioned as needed.

Sigh. We are already slamming the character of a player before he has put on a Twins uniform. Any man who has pitched successfully into their 40s has done so by being extremely dedicated to their craft continually learning and working hard. There are accounts from the DBacks and others that he has helped the younger pitchers on the team because that is how he was treated when he arrived. That points to a good teammate. It is the Twins management that negotiated this deal and made commitments to Rodney. If they told him he would be used as a closer that is on them. Let’s question the wisdom of the front office. Rodney did not force them into the commitment.

Unless Kinley is more reliable than Pressly there is no way to justify the roster spot. He doesn’t help as the low leverage reliever. He can’t be optioned and that flexibility is valuable to a team that should be competitive.

When all are healthy... Rodney, Reed, Duke, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly might be the first 6. Busenitz is a good fit for the seventh spot. He has options. Instead of going to 13 pitchers when the pen is exhausted they can send out Busenitz and call up Curtiss or maybe Chargois.

I would guess that the order would have been out on Darvish sign Reed rather than we just signed Reed now we don’t have money for Darvish. The additions of Reed, Rodney and Duke add nicely to the bullpen at minimal commitment.

The Twins committed 174 million to Nolasco, Santana and Hughes over 14 years. The return thus far has been 3 of 11 season of league average or better starting pitching for the 134 million they have spent thus far. A good season for a starting pitcher has cost them almost 45 million a season. The 40 million looks like a bargain.

What recent comps are there for younger players signing away their arbitration and maybe a few free agency year away? The Altuve deal was 2013. Singleton 2014. Astros haven’t been able to make similar deals with Springer or Correa. I would think Buxton would need to blown away by a deal to sign. In any case, the Twins can afford to pay for play in arbitration. They can’t afford to commit significant money towards poor performance.