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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Yankees added more international money today.
  2. jorgenswest
    Seth - you are not wrong on Diaz if he gets selected.
  3. jorgenswest
    They have to wonder whether May can stay healthy as a reliever. If they go with the reliever role, they need to avoid pitching him on back to back days.
  4. jorgenswest
    I expect the Twins will throw fewer change ups. They ranked 8th in change up frequency and 23rd in change up effectiveness. That 23rd is only that high because Santiago had one of the most effective change ups in baseball at 7.2 runs above average. The rest of the team was -14.3. Kyle Gibson was the only other starter with a positive change up. I expect them to help pitchers make their best pitch even better. Tyler Duffey entered in 2015 with an effective fastball and curve ball. My impression from reading reports is that there was a lot of emphasis in Duffey developing his change up. Would it have been better if he put in that energy towards making his promising curve ball better? Ryan Pressly had one of the better curve balls in the league. Can he improve it further? Is he throwing it enough? They need to work pitchers and make their best pitches better.
  5. jorgenswest
    Over three to four years, I think there is more upside in Chatwood than Lynn. Chatwood’s peripherals last year and age project to that better upside. I also wonder if remixing his pitch mix and sequence holds some unrealized value. It might be best to pass on both and go after a pitcher that can lead in the playoffs. Go after Darvish. Seek Cole in a trade. Failing that wait until the deadline. At that point a prospect like Lewis may have taken another step forward and be the piece that can bring in that top pitcher. Chatwood does have my interest though but it mainly relies on the possibility of unrealized value that may not be there. Signing a guy like this requires thorough homework and a talented staff.
  6. jorgenswest
    Earlier this year Chatwood and his change up made fangraph’s underthrown pitch series. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/underthrown-pitches-and-the-pitchers-who-underthrow-them-vol-3-sliders-and-changeups/ The combination of leaving Coors and the possibility of better utilizing his pitch mix are intriguing.
  7. jorgenswest
    At the risk of derailing this conversation further by replying to the constant push back I will clarify once more and then I suggest we might ignore each other after your last word. - I suggested buy big or seek a trade. Darvish is far enough above league average that he is much more likely to be a guy we want starting in the playoffs as he declines into his 30s. - I use strikeout and walk rate because it stabilizes in a small sample. There is real reason to be concerned about Lynn’s strike out and walk rates as well as his move to AL. - I started with that teams must do their homework. The skill of our front office in projecting the performance out 3-4 years is critical. The data available to teams makes this possible. I would endorse opening the coffers for Darvish and be very cautious about committing to Lynn.
  8. jorgenswest
    Darvish
  9. jorgenswest
    I think I would either spend big or seek a trade. Failing either of those, I would wait until trade deadline and pay for a rental. Santana is the exception for signing league average pitchers to a 4 year contract into their 30s. There are more Nolascos than Santanas.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think I do have enough doubts not to be the team that gives him a 4 or 5 year contract. There is a high likelihood that he will decline and be a Nolasco like burden on a team. I would go after the top pitchers and failing that seek a trade. As for FIP and xFIP, in his 5 years he has outperformed in 3 of them so his career numbers after this season are better. The difference was negligible entering the season with an ERA of 3.38 and FIP of 3.39. The weight of this season has significant impact on his career numbers. Is that what you meant by throughout?
  11. jorgenswest
    Simply responding to an earlier question about first half/second half in response to significant downturn in rates. I think that poster had hoped they improved during the season as he moved further away from TJ. They didn’t. Not everyone returns to their pre TJ level. Not every pitcher pitches as well at 31 as 28. Any team signing Lynn really needs to do their homework. They need to be confident that he will return close to his age 28 level. His value in fWAR was very similar to that of Gibson in 2017. The Twins don’t need to pay big dollars for that performance.
  12. jorgenswest
    First half k/bb 22.0/9.0 Second half 17.0/11.3 His first half number were close but worse than his career norms. His second half and season overall were significantly worse than career norms entering 2017. Not everyone comes all the way back from Tommy John. The Twins need to do their homework here. His reasonable 2017 ERA is of little value projecting 2018-2021. His poor 2017 FIP and xFIP are more telling of the future than his ERA.
  13. jorgenswest
    With the lowest K rate at 19.7% and high walk rate at 10.1% of his career, any team should carefully do their homework. His career rates entering this season were 23.1% and 8.7%. I think both numbers have shifted in the wrong direction significantly. The drop and the move to the AL seems a very risky signing.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it would be wise to give him an extension beyond two years even if that means he gets a boost next year plus two more. He likely wouldn’t take the deal and move on. Even at two years, I don’t think it is a wise move. Polanco’s best fit is probably 2B.
  15. jorgenswest
    Easy decision to put Sano on the roster for the wild card game. Would you have more confidence pinch hitting Garver or Vargas for Castro late in the game? They probably should take all 3. If they need more than 10 pitchers, it won't matter if Sano is on the bench. There is a spot for everyone but Goodrum.
  16. jorgenswest
    How many teams have a utility player with 20 home runs and 75 RBIs? The Escobar deal was a steal.
  17. jorgenswest
    What valuable would be learned in a September look? The Twins have had eyes on them all year. A September sample is not going to add anything worthwhile. Wins, on the other hand, are worthwhile. They need to give themselves the best chance to win each game.
  18. jorgenswest
    FIP relies on HR rate which stabilizes around 1320 batters faced. It is pretty useless for relievers but starters can get there in two years. xFIP relies on fly ball rate which stabilizes much quicker at 70 balls in play. This assumes however that pitchers trend to the same HR/FB rate which probably isn't correct. Comparing to a reliever's ERA is further complicated by pitchers who enter mid inning or leave mid inning where inherited runners are part of the equation. Those factors have no impact on FIP. For a starter where most of their innings are self contained, partial innings has limited impact. For a middle reliever it is significant. ERA and FIP are virtually useless for relievers. I don't think any conclusion can be drawn from comparing them.
  19. jorgenswest
    Polanco should have another half season and that is plenty of time for hi, to show the Twins he can hit. Nick Gordon will benefit from time in AAA and the Twins need to make sure he comes up fundamentally sound and skilled at shortstop. Escobar and Dozier have one year left on their contracts. Escobar could be moved to make room for Gordon if Polanco establishes his bat by next July. If Polanco isn't hitting, he probably is headed towards a Danny Santana career. Adrianza can continue in a utility role. He will not be blocking Gordon from coming up mid season. All five can coexist until the next trading deadline and it is quite possible the depth will be needed.
  20. jorgenswest
    Yes.
  21. jorgenswest
    Do you have a source that he didn't? It should not be a surprise that an older player with concussion symptoms is going to get days off particularly when night games are followed by day games. Molitor's thoughts on playing Mauer less this year are documented. Is it an unreasonable decision on Molitor's part that Mauer sits against Hamels instead of Martinez?
  22. jorgenswest
    Is there a source? I did read that a Molitor sat him due the tough lefty. I did not see that it was Mauer's request.
  23. jorgenswest
    My contribution to the discussion is that I value the devopmental time in the minors towards improving his catching skills. Is that not worthy of discussion? Perhaps it would be worthy of discussion if we agreed. I don't want to send Garver back next year to work on catching. His bat as a catcher will be valuable.
  24. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Encouraging. Jeff Smith also spoke of Pinto being vastly improved and how he was impressed with his work to do both (offense and defense) while managing him in AA. The did not have trackman data for Pinto in AA.
  25. jorgenswest
    What is the alternative? Is there anyone here that sees him working on catching daily? I guess I could put my trust with them assuming they have also demonstrated skill in assessing catcher defense. I am concerned that he has not been called up yet. What could be holding him back? It isn't the bat. The Twins are desperate for a right handed bat. While I believe that you can't fully learn how to hit major league pitching in AAA, I don't believe the same for defense. The Twins have had far too many players coming to the majors without being fundamentally sound at their position. In some cases, the player didn't have the talent to play the position. Garver's bat needs to be in majors. If the glove part needs more development at catcher, give him that time. If he isn't close to an average catcher when he arrives, the potential for a league average bat probably won't matter.
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