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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Helpful. Another honest question. I have not seen any of the potential selections pitch. Shouldn't there be more concern about his first part of his season? At a small sample of 6 weeks, the difference is much more likely to be random variation rather than a change in skill level. Is it possible the last 6 weeks represent an outlier of his skill set? Could selecting him be like buying high in a trade?
  2. jorgenswest
    It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?
  3. jorgenswest
    Are there other teams interested in Dyson? Rangers won't get much in return. I would guess they would move him to a team that isn't going to compete with them for the wild card. NL clubs or a team that is off to a poor start might the direction. The last thing the Rangers need is for Dyson to pitch well for a team competing for the wild card.
  4. jorgenswest
    No reason to expect Breslow or rest of the bullpen to have anything after yesterday. Why make the moves if you aren't going to use the fresh arms to protect a 5 run lead?
  5. jorgenswest
    It sure sounds as if they were waiting for him to repeat something mechanically with consistency. I believe I last heard Falvey reference it is the Inside Twins show. While no one would know how he was going to fare, they would be able to assess whether he was consistent with the mechanics they were trying to establish. I think that is the "readiness" they were seeking.
  6. jorgenswest
    Changing the catching was the only real move this front office made as they take over. They chose Castro and Giminez knowing they wouldn't hit much. They must believe the value they bring to roster contributes significantly to preventing runs. I find myself agreeing with them though this skill is very complex to measure. Some of the pieces can be measured over the long term. If you don't support Falvey and Levine's only fundamental roster decision, it is hard to imagine that you would support their continued role leading the Twins front office.
  7. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz and his staff saw a lot of Polanco at SS. Their input should have had significant weight in the decision to play him at 2B exclusively in AAA last year. Let's hope the assessment of that staff was wrong. Any implication that someone outside the organization might influence that decision is inconceivable. Let's also hope that they still are heavily invested in Gordon at SS. The future of the middle infield is Gordon and Polanco.
  8. jorgenswest
    Short of an injury, the front office should stick with the roster they determined twas the best to begin the season. They could not have learned anything new in 9 days. They shouldn't react to a 8 game sample. It would not have been my 25, but I want a front office that makes a reasoned decision followed by patience in the short term.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am having a hard time wrapping my head around the statcorner data from this series. Is it possible that 32.2% of called pitches in the strike zone were called balls with Perez as catcher? The number was 21.7% for Castro. I wonder what the scouting report on those umpires must look like. Don't swing at anything on the edges has to be a key emphasis. The Twins did a good job of staying patient. Patience in the next series may result in more pitches in the zone being called strikes and adjustment will be critical.
  10. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. You always remind us of the tremendous work and commitment of those aspiring to play in the majors. I am curious about players that are in extended spring training or released.
  11. jorgenswest
    Spring training stats are useless in projecting who will perform well in April. They shouldn't be kept or considered in roster decisions short of any pitch level data collected on velocity, location and spin rate. That doesn't mean spring training is meaningless. The thoughts and observations of a skilled staff interacting with players in work outs and games has significant meaning.
  12. jorgenswest
    Do we see any evidence that roster construction is different with the new leadership? Has there been any impact on the roster?
  13. jorgenswest
    In support of riverbrian's statement, 177 pitchers started at least 1 game in April last year. That is 27 pitchers beyond an opening day starting rotation.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would take a Nolasco at 26 through his prime. I wouldn't give up on a career xFIP- of 91 through age 25. I certainly wouldn't shut down his starting career. If the Twins front office believes his ERA represents his true ability better than his peripherals I would be very disappointed.
  15. jorgenswest
    Duffey threw his change at about the same rate and effectiveness as Santana threw his third pitch. Santana has been a successful starter throwing a 4 seam fastball and slider over 90% of the time in his career. Last year 4seam 55.3% Sinker 1.0% Slider 39.1% Change 7.9% Duffey 4seam 28.8% Sinker 24.5% Cutter 1.1% Curve 38.7% Change 6.8% Is it possible that the research on xFIP and Siera is correct? Is it possible Duffey's awful ERA last year was fueled by very poor defense and a HR/FB rate that was 20% that will regress? Bad luck and bad defense or bad pitcher? Do you believe ERA or the components of his pitching line that Duffey controls?
  16. jorgenswest
    I hope that Chargois' demotion doesn't lead to Duffey in the bullpen. They can't give up on the possibility he is a useful starter and we saw how they were not able to stretch out May last year once he was on the pen. There were numerous needs for a starter. Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that. He is a groundball pitcher with a double play rate that tanked last year. Give him Adrianza when he starts. He had an extremely high HR/FB rate last year. That rate will regress. Let's see if Castro has an impact on his sequencing and location. I don't care if he is the 5th starter or starting in AAA on opening day. I do care that he is a starter. The Twins need to develop their own middle and back of the rotation starters.
  17. jorgenswest
    They need both Mejia and Duffey starting somewhere to begin the season. if Mejia wins the spot they need to keep Duffey stretched out in AAA.
  18. jorgenswest
    The data from pitchf/x as shown in fangraphs or brooks baseball suggests he has more than two pitches. I think they are basing it on varying angles, spin rates rates... and then classifying the pitch. Looking at his pitch mix and comparing it to Santana's, I see more variation in his pitches. I also see a four seam fastball in 2016 that wasn't an effective pitch - likely due to command. I think his fastball command is the greater greater hurdle towards success whether it be in the pen or rotation than pitch mix.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am glad that he is being given a chance. It would be a shame to dismiss the pitcher with the best xFIP among Twin starters last year.
  20. jorgenswest
    Great work!
  21. jorgenswest
    If thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms set in over the course of the game, wouldn't Hughes be a better fit in a relief role?
  22. jorgenswest
    They could turn to the guy that had the best xFIP among their starters last year at 3.89 (Santana was 4.21).
  23. jorgenswest
    Why does there have to be any issues? It is a tiny sample of spring at bats.
  24. jorgenswest
    My concern would be this will turn into Mauer sitting only against tough lefties. While true that a mediocre lefty would be easier for Mauer to handle it is also the kind of pitcher that Vargas might crush. If Mauer faces any lefties at all, it should be those that might be more difficult for Vargas or Park. They need to make sure they crush mediocre pitchers.
  25. jorgenswest
    Escobar had a bad year. Injuries played a part. I wouldn't forecast the next year based on a single season for any player. I think it is reasonable that he can post an OPS of .700 while being average defensively at SS. That isn't exciting but he was better than that in 14 and 15. If he is at that level, he is a very valuable bench player.
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