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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Stewart is up to offer some length as the 12th man. I hope he isn’t needed. His value is his length and an option as well as some hope in his future as a number 4 or 5 starter. Meanwhile the Twins are raising the bar for the bullpen with the DFAs of Mejia, Morin and Magill. All could catch on with another team but I don’t think they would trust any in the playoffs. There is no space for a pitcher on the roster unless they have options or can be trusted in the playoffs. Looking forward to see who is added in the next two weeks.
  2. jorgenswest
    Catchers rarely catch day game after night game. The Twins face two lefties so Baldelli chose last night to start Castro. I would have made the same choice given it was a bullpen game for the Mets. It turned out Castro had one completed at bat against Matz though he was up a second time when they failed to execute a double steal. A move the Twins likely made because they lacked confidence in Castro.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am not confident that previous success with men in scoring position is a good predictor of future success. I did wonder how the Twins compared to other teams. Good hitting teams should hit well relative to the league across the board. According to Fangraphs the Twins WOBA with men in scoring position ranks 4th.
  4. jorgenswest
    I went to baseball.tradevalues.com and entered in DeGrom who had a trade value of 55.2. Kirilloff, Thorpe and Rortvedt match that value exactly. Larnach, Javier, Duran and Rooker do also but were not enough. They generated a reality check message directing me to add a player of high value.
  5. jorgenswest
    I agree but if I can’t win in a deal on quantity I would still be willing to give up higher ranked prospects. In this market I think it is going to take quality.
  6. jorgenswest
    He might be a good insurance option on a player to be named later deal. The return would be contingent on the number of starts (or equivalent given the possibility of an opener) Wheeler makes for the Twins. If he makes 8 starts the Twins give up Kohl Stewart. I have some comfort here knowing that the only way he gets 8 starts is if he is effective. The Twins have too many AAA options if he doesn’t pitch well on return from injury. If fewer than 8 starts they give up a player they were going to have to expose in rule 5 this winter. Perhaps someone like Adam Bray. The trade gives the Twins some insurance for an injury to a starter after the deadline. It gives the Mets a return and a chance at a guy like Stewart that could be in the back end of their rotation. This trade would not alter any other trade plans. It simply uses the depth that they will have to manage as they set their 40 man roster this winter to buy some insurance.
  7. jorgenswest
    Assuming everyone is healthy and I question whether Buxton is healthy, I would drop back to 12 pitchers and DFA Morin. I think the Indian series made clear that Magill and Morin are the last two in the pen right now. It is a matter of time before they are moved. I am also confident that there are pitchers in AAA who can take that spot in the pen if needed.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think the market is going to drive prices up. Only the Marlins are truly out of wild card contention in the NL. The Giants are 3 games out and playing well right now. The Mets are 5.5 out with an unpredictable front office. In the AL the Blue Jays and Tigers have some very good pitchers to offer that are not rentals. They don’t need to trade them unless blown away. The Giants are not in a budget crunch. They don’t need to trade their expiring contracts and throw in this season unless they are blown away... certainly not while they are three games back. I am not sure comps from last year are going to apply in this market. It might take more. It also might take some patience. In two weeks a few more teams might drop out.
  9. jorgenswest
    The 2018 fangraphs values Dillon Tate FV 45 - 24 years old starter Cody Carroll FV 40 - 25 years old reliever Josh Rogers unranked - 23 year old lefty starter with 3.95 ERA in AAA I used July 1 age but Rogers and Tate are virtually the same age with birthdays on both sides of July 1 In Gonsalves, Smeltzer and Thorpe the Twins are close to Tate but not quite there. It might take two of them plus a reliever or maybe one of them Stewart and reliever. I know my suggestion on Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak is light because there is one FV 40 compared to a 45 and a 40.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think Britton is a better comp by age and handedness. Smith is a better piece than Soria and Medeiros was significantly younger than Stewart. Smith is still a better add than Britton as Britton was coming off injury. It took three near ready major league pitchers to get Britton. Maybe Stewart, Gonsalves and Stashak would be a match for that deal. It might take Thorpe over Gonsalves.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think Schoop has more value to this team than Morin or Magill and if somehow all off the position players are healthy when Rosario and Cron return I would go with 12 pitchers and DFA Morin. They made it through this Cleveland series using 11 pitchers. If they lose Morin, I have as much confidence in some of the pitchers in AAA. Two factors might work against Arraez as the season progresses. He won’t likely sustain his plus .400 BABIP. Teams may adjust in both the way they pitch to him and shift (or not). He may endure some struggle that he has not encountered in the minors and it is hard to predict how he will handle the struggle.
  12. jorgenswest
    He started warming up when it was 3-2. The broadcast showed him warming up top 8. Cave got the job done and his load was reduced an inning but I think we would have seen Rogers for two innings if Cave (or Buxton) failed to bring in those runs. I don’t have any problem with handing the game to Rogers for two innings against Cleveland if the game stayed 3-2 or putting him out there for one once the lead became larger. Once warmed up he was probably not an option for today.
  13. jorgenswest
    I suppose they could have optioned Littell or Duffey but those two are performing better and it was only a matter of time before they needed Mejia’s spot. I expect they will add two pitchers this month and Morin will face a similar fate with an option being used on the one of the pair above.
  14. jorgenswest
    I like the control Boyd and Greene offer. Pay up for these two. If they are truly available the winner of this deal will overpay. Every contender can use a good starter and reliever and would be willing to make a reasonable offer. The team making the deal will have to overpay. There are two ways teams will overpay as the deadline approaches. They will take on large contracts or pay up in prospects. Boyd and Greene don’t have large contracts so it is going to take prospects. If we get to August 1st and the Twins haven’t overpaid to get pitching they will not have done enough.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is so difficult to predict future pitching performance based on a half season. We can certainly look backwards with WAR and FIP and use that data to describe which pitcher performed better in the first half. I hope the Twins are not using FIP or WHIP or ERA or WAR as any part of their analysis. How do they account for Stroman having a 2018 xFIP better than his 2019 when his 2018 season won’t help anyone reach the playoffs? The Twins scouts and analytics department need to get this right and fangraphs isn’t going to help.
  16. jorgenswest
    There may be some stretches where he is sent to AAA but I would expect there will be opportunity on the big league roster for the majority of the remainder of the season and the playoff roster. If he has a stretch in AAA it will be an opportunity to work in the OF. I am confident in his talents and would plan on him as the starting 2B in 2020.
  17. jorgenswest
    Just wondering... Can a player be removed from the 40 while injured? When the player is on the major league IL they can be moved to the 60. Perhaps they want to make this move while he is healthy knowing that he is the one they would move when they need a spot. An injury might mess that plan up.
  18. jorgenswest
    I would be very concerned that his swing and miss rate has not changed and his xFIP is 3.71. Someone will be buying high here. I think he had a mediocre second half.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to take advantage of this season. The future is too hard to project. While the Indians look like they might be retooling, the White Sox may take a huge step forward with their young starting pitching and some key young position players. The Twins need to be aggressive and get a playoff caliber starting pitcher as well as a late inning reliever this month even if it costs a prized prospect.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is Kirilloff and Lewis that sets the Twins apart from some of the competition. Having more depth in 40-45 prospects (fangraphs value) doesn’t matter in the trade market. Everyone has enough of those prospects to put together a package. The Twins have the headliner for a package if they choose to use those assets.
  21. jorgenswest
    Intriguing article in the Athletic about how they are working with Sano to manage the upper half of the strike zone. Simplistically his hands start higher. Maybe we are seeing some of the fruits of that work. We also might have seen the cost of trying to make the change in his really poor stretch. Change often comes with a drop before growth.
  22. jorgenswest
    Their depth in position players has been helpful but they are just about tapped now on the 40. It might get be wise to get Gordon some games in the outfield in AAA.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would add the Twins only traded the 2 months of Dozier 2018. I would consider trading every one on the quick list in a package for Pressly.
  24. jorgenswest
    Would ripping players in the postgame help the team win more games? If so. Do it. I don’t think it helps and if anything makes it harder to work with a player. With social media a manager’s words are immediately available and easily repeated. That wasn’t the case when Gardenhire started managing. I think Rocco has this part figured out.
  25. jorgenswest
    Without the bullpen stepping up this week it could be a six game losing streak.
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