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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Duffey threw his change at about the same rate and effectiveness as Santana threw his third pitch. Santana has been a successful starter throwing a 4 seam fastball and slider over 90% of the time in his career. Last year 4seam 55.3% Sinker 1.0% Slider 39.1% Change 7.9% Duffey 4seam 28.8% Sinker 24.5% Cutter 1.1% Curve 38.7% Change 6.8% Is it possible that the research on xFIP and Siera is correct? Is it possible Duffey's awful ERA last year was fueled by very poor defense and a HR/FB rate that was 20% that will regress? Bad luck and bad defense or bad pitcher? Do you believe ERA or the components of his pitching line that Duffey controls?
  2. jorgenswest
    I hope that Chargois' demotion doesn't lead to Duffey in the bullpen. They can't give up on the possibility he is a useful starter and we saw how they were not able to stretch out May last year once he was on the pen. There were numerous needs for a starter. Duffey has an xFIP- for his career. There aren't very many pitchers 25 or under in 2016 with a better career xFIP-. They can't give up on that. He is a groundball pitcher with a double play rate that tanked last year. Give him Adrianza when he starts. He had an extremely high HR/FB rate last year. That rate will regress. Let's see if Castro has an impact on his sequencing and location. I don't care if he is the 5th starter or starting in AAA on opening day. I do care that he is a starter. The Twins need to develop their own middle and back of the rotation starters.
  3. jorgenswest
    They need both Mejia and Duffey starting somewhere to begin the season. if Mejia wins the spot they need to keep Duffey stretched out in AAA.
  4. jorgenswest
    The data from pitchf/x as shown in fangraphs or brooks baseball suggests he has more than two pitches. I think they are basing it on varying angles, spin rates rates... and then classifying the pitch. Looking at his pitch mix and comparing it to Santana's, I see more variation in his pitches. I also see a four seam fastball in 2016 that wasn't an effective pitch - likely due to command. I think his fastball command is the greater greater hurdle towards success whether it be in the pen or rotation than pitch mix.
  5. jorgenswest
    I am glad that he is being given a chance. It would be a shame to dismiss the pitcher with the best xFIP among Twin starters last year.
  6. jorgenswest
    Great work!
  7. jorgenswest
    If thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms set in over the course of the game, wouldn't Hughes be a better fit in a relief role?
  8. jorgenswest
    They could turn to the guy that had the best xFIP among their starters last year at 3.89 (Santana was 4.21).
  9. jorgenswest
    Why does there have to be any issues? It is a tiny sample of spring at bats.
  10. jorgenswest
    My concern would be this will turn into Mauer sitting only against tough lefties. While true that a mediocre lefty would be easier for Mauer to handle it is also the kind of pitcher that Vargas might crush. If Mauer faces any lefties at all, it should be those that might be more difficult for Vargas or Park. They need to make sure they crush mediocre pitchers.
  11. jorgenswest
    Escobar had a bad year. Injuries played a part. I wouldn't forecast the next year based on a single season for any player. I think it is reasonable that he can post an OPS of .700 while being average defensively at SS. That isn't exciting but he was better than that in 14 and 15. If he is at that level, he is a very valuable bench player.
  12. jorgenswest
    The starter with the best xFIP and SIERA was Tyler Duffey last year. Both have a higher correlation to future ERA than ERA. His xFIP+ was 8% better than league. The disparity between the two was huge. He had the perfect storm of a bad defense, abnormally high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in DP rate compared to 2015. I would plan to have Duffey in the rotation entering spring. The Twins can't afford to miss on any young starter. Duffey, May and Berrios are critical to the Twins short and long term future.
  13. jorgenswest
    How is his data more trustworthy than that of Dozier, Santana or Plouffe? I see in the data 200 games at 2B in the minors and almost exclusive play at 2B by his winter ball coaches. It would have to be extreme incompetence on the part of the Twins to play his that often at 2B that often if they thought he had a shot to be a decent SS. It is critical teams keep players as far to the right of the defensive spectrum as long as possible. I am curious what you see in the data that gives you more confidence in his ability to be decent than the three players above who couldn't make it. All three played SS a much greater rate of time in the minors.
  14. jorgenswest
    I suppose the same could be said about Plouffe, Nishioka and Dozier as they started playing shortstop for the Twins. There were people who questioned their ability to play decent defense at SS in the majors. Perhaps they were unreasonable. The Twins did seems to have more confidence in Plouffe and Dozier at the time they arrived given they had stayed at SS through the minors. The Twins moved Polanco away from shortstop a few times including the start of 2016. Reports of his struggle with defense have been around since he hit high A. I think there is a good chance his defense won't approach my understanding of decent (not in the bottom quartile). Call me unreasonable.
  15. jorgenswest
    Groundball pitchers Duffey and Gibson will benefit most from Adrianza. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA among their starters last year and he seems the getting little consideration for the rotation. He mixed an extremely high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in double play rate last year driving a huge disparity between ERA and xFIP. The HR rate will regress and Adrianza should help considerably. I could be wrong about whether the Twins view him as a starter but I hope his xFIP- of 92 offers them some hope that his ERA was driven by both very poor luck and very poor defense. They should be counting on him for the rotation.
  16. jorgenswest
    Izturis had 7 seasons as the primary SS with more than 100 starts in seasons between ages 22 and 30. The two years he fell short of 100 he bounced between two teams. He never really was a utilityman. His glove was good enough to be a starting SS for most seasons through his prime. If Adrianza's glove is the level of Izturis, he might be the Twins best option at SS. If not, he is AAA depth.
  17. jorgenswest
    Light or Belisle? I would take a Belisle. His veteran presence should be valuable. Light has limited upside. Park or Adrianza? Park has the upside, but if they can pass Adrianza through waivers he adds an excellent glove at SS in AAA. Adrianza is not a good fit in a utility role. His value is all in his glove at SS. He either hits enough to start at SS or bounces around. My guess is They DFA him when they sign a veteran hoping he passes through to AAA. They might already have that deal with a veteran and needed to time his signing first. It could be a veteran bat to go with Belisle with the additional depth of Adrianza in AAA at the possible cost of Park and Light.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am not talking about an emergency catcher though Gimenez did play some 1B and 3B last year. He also has played OF. That isn't my vision of an emergency catcher but rather and emergency corner player. Our new GM came from an organization that valued catching enough to put 3 catchers on the ALDS roster. Is it possible that he would do the same with the Twins roster this year? Is there some value a veteran catcher like Gimenez brings on the bench and in the bullpen that exceeds the value of a guy like Santana, a bench bat or a 13th pitcher?
  19. jorgenswest
    Any chance the Twins carry 3 catchers? The Indians made news carrying 3 catchers on the roster in the ALDS (Perez, Gomes, Gimenez). Falvey and Levine know Gimenez well. I would not be surprised if he were the number 2 or 3 catcher on the roster. I have no way to value his presence on the bench but he must bring something unmeasured to the game that keeps him employed. If he is on the roster as the 25th man, I will trust that Falvey's sees value that is not measured well by the metrics we have available.
  20. jorgenswest
    Belisle hasn't been able to stay healthy the last two years pitching about a season worth of innings in the last two. I wonder if he had other major league contract offers. He went to the Nationals on a minor contract last year. I don't see a pitcher the Twins should be counting on in high leverage situations. On the other hand, he could be a good veteran for the young relievers to learn from in the pen. It sounded like Falvey and Levine were looking for that quality from a veteran. Hopefully he stays healthy and post another ERA significantly lower than his peripherals while being a leader in the pen.
  21. jorgenswest
    They could lose the guy they drop off the 40. It is possible that the guy they drop has a better career moving forward than one year of Matt Belisle. If they lose a player and Belisle pitches at a mediocre level, did they make a mistake? Edit: If they drop Tonkin, he had essentially the same xFIP in the context of the American League and essentially the same Steamer projection (also in the AL context).
  22. jorgenswest
    Any similarities to Tim Stauffer?
  23. jorgenswest
    Twins who have received the same recognition as best defensive infielder from 2006-2014. All were shortstops at the time. Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla, Deibinson Romero, Matt Tolbert, Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Levi Michael, Danny Santana I think it is more telling that Dozier, Michael and Santana were seen as better defensive infielders at shortstop over Polanco 2012-2014. Edit: Romero was a 3B when recognized
  24. jorgenswest
    I would sign any but Drew to a one year deal. I don't think Drew can play middle infield any longer and he has little value to this team as a bench bat occasional 3B. The others can all be flipped by mid season or released if they can't play anymore.
  25. jorgenswest
    They can go ahead and play Polanco at SS but they shouldn't do so thinking he will turn a corner at the position. That would be foolish. They have had him in the organization since he was 16. They have seen him at the position. A major league ground ball or throw from the hole or feed for a double play isn't that different from those in the minors. It would be like thinking that Pinto was going to become a good catcher or Plouffe a good SS in the majors after seeing them struggle for years in the minors. Polanco needs to have his bat in the line up regularly. He needs major league at bats. Right now it looks like the best option is to acknowledge that his play will cost them runs defensively and play him at SS until Dozier is moved. Meanwhile they can balance it with improved defense at catcher and the outfield. Last year they opened with Arcia and Sano on the corners and Suzuki at catcher. That was a disaster.
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