jorgenswest

Nolasco through his years of team control was a number 4 pitcher or better. That would be an incredible return for Nunez. Hopefully they will have learned that guys who are number 4s in their primes aren't very useful 32-35.

I would agree that Dozier in the midst of his prime. At his age, two more seasons close to this year are reasonable. The market for 2Bs seems very limited. I don't think it is anyone's top priority. His bat wouldn't play as well at DH or a corner position. His value is at 2B and there needs to be a team that has a significant need to make a significant offer. Blue Jays? Travis is healthy. Cardinals? They have Carpenter, Diaz, Peralta and Gyorko (as well Wong) under contract next year. With two injuries they have a short term need. They would seek a short term cheaper solution. Pirates? They have committed to Harrison for years with Mercer, Kang and Rodriguez. I don't see the market.

I have seen Mejia pitch twice for San Jose when he was 20. I haven't seen Gilmartin in person so I really can't compare. At 20, Mejia was impressive. He seemed like a veteran though he was young for the league. I did wonder if his pitch mix would continue to fool AA and AAA hitters. He wasn't blowing guys away like Kyle Crick did on that San Jose club.

Maybe. I thought Gilmartin's velocity was 86-89.

It is hard to believe the AAA staff and the organizational as a whole would take a guy that might actually be the best option for shortstop and never play him there. If true, there are much bigger problems to worry about than Polanco getting playing time the next few weeks.

It just makes no sense that he wouldn't play SS regularly in AAA. They have developed him to be a starting 2B and reduced the likelihood of success as everyday SS or even utility to fielder. I fear he is up until Plouffe is healthy. There isn't a good solution. Dozier is likely the more valuable 2B this year and next. They need a very solid return. Unfortunately, there is little market for a 2B right.

Mejia stepped it up the year. He is a good prospect and near ready. A good return for Nunez. If his status as a prospect matters, this winter's list will have the best gauge on how he ranked at the time of the trade. Maybe the Twins can add another potential rotation candidate in the next few days. It takes several rotation prospects to hit on a few. May was on every top 100 list while with the Phillies. Same for Meyer with the Nationals. Neither look like starting rotation hits. They need to keep searching. Nothing is more critical than getting young team control starters in the rotation long term.

I think most of these are mid season ranks which skew up. Many players have exited the ranks when entering the majors and the new draft crop isn't represented. Mejia has one appearance on an off season top 100 list. He has yet to appear on the off season MLB or BA lists. He was ranked 86 prior to 2015 by BP. He is a good return for Nunez but maybe not a top 100.

Great trade. Mejia has just 7 starts in AAA. He isn't blowing batters away. It is probably best to have the patience that allows him to begin at that level next year. The Twins can expect to see him in the majors within a year. They just shouldn't count on him for 2017. I look forward to seeing him.

I appreciate your work. When I see stuff like this questions abound in my mind. I wonder why 10 rounds? Why not all rounds? Why not 6 rounds? What is special about 10? I would guess the Twins had a below average draft position from 2008-2011. I wonder about the draft positions of the teams below them. I also order how much of the WAR above was generated by players drafted before the Twins or any specific team had an opportunity to select. Finally, I wonder if a focus on high school players vs college players would skew the results.

Seth stated at the time of the trade that Chris Herrmann could be an average hitter for a catcher. If you followed his minor league career, you might make the same assessment. I keep reading posters quote slash stats, but they really don't have any meaning in his major league sample or as a career starter. If the Twins had anyone recommend this deal based on Herrmann's major league slash stats, they need to be cleared out by the new GM. His upside might have been an average bat, average arm and poor other catcher skills. That has value to the Twins and other teams. The Twins really needed to assess whether they could improve the catcher position to the point where he was an obvious DFA. Adding Murphy, who had options, should not have been that clear. Why not go to spring with both? A DFA of Herrmann at the end March when every team is making similar moves probably would have passed him through. Where is the greater need? Catcher or corner/DH?

Chris Herrmann is not a good framer this year or previous. On a per game basis though, he is in the neighborhood of some regular catchers like Navarro and Vogt. Centeno (in samples over 1000) has the poorest per game framing numbers in baseball. Herrmann did pretty well throwing out runners with the Twins and has continued to do well with the Diamondbacks. Seth argued at the time that he could be an average major league hitter relative to catchers. This is not the kind of player the Twins could afford to give up for a corner guy. I am not convinced that Herrmann has the defense to be a regular catcher or enough bat to have a Doumit type role. It is quite possible that he is a better option than either Centeno or Murphy. The same personnel that recommended the Murphy and Herrmann moves are the people advising Antony right now.

I think the original writer's point was that though they had high picks they didn't have the opportunity for those players. If they had tanked, they may have had that opportunity. I could be mistaken. I certainly expect them to fight for every win. Every baseball game is a joy in itself. None should be wasted.

It is not a matter of trusting Murphy. It is a matter of having the patience to develop the next catcher. Patience the Twins should have shown with Hicks. They could have played another guy while he developed in AAA following the trades of Span and Revere. They can have patience with Garver. Garver has all of 39 starts at catcher above A ball and 202 games caught overall. How do you go from there to a starting major league catcher? Even Brian Harper had over 400 games at catcher in the minors.

The trade deadline is of little importance compared to the need to overhaul the front office. They need a real analytics department, a real medical department and minds from the outside. Even if Antony were to get a great return for Suzuki or Nunez, that should not be the deciding factor in whether he stays as GM. What is his plan to overhaul the front office? What is his vision for the future and how will the Twins not only catch up to the curve but stay ahead of it? What is his vision for skills from a manager? Can he pinpoint where the current management has failed and areas where he needs to replace staff? Trades are a very small part of this job.

The Twins have moved so many guys up with little AAA time. Will it be a mistake with Garver? There isn't a position on the field that takes more time to develop than catcher.

The Indians have stated that catcher is not a priority. I am sure they would listen if the deal had a cheap prospect cost. Gimenez and Perez are both good defensive catchers. Suzuki may not be a significant upgrade worthy of a good prospect.

Whatever direction the Twins take at the deadline, it will be different than the direction Ryan planned. A new GM from outside should lead to an overhaul of on field personnel throughout the organization this winter. Keeping Antony would probably not lead to that overhaul. If the move was about the short term deadline direction, Antony has a shot a keeping the job. If it is about long term direction, an outsider is necessary.

Isn't the definition of cherry picking selectively picking a sample based on the case? I still have no idea what sample should have been chosen to avoid cherry picking. Of course the confidence interval shrinks when comparing Kluber against Pomeranz. Pomeranz would be more likely to underperform and out perform a projection. There is more risk that Pomeranz has not pitched 200 innings. On the other hand, he also has less wear on his arm. You made the statement extreme cherry picking when using three seasons. What do you suggest should be used so that I am not selecting a sample case by case? I guess the Red Sox must have been picking the same cherries when offering one of the best prospects in baseball for a guy that has made only 36 starts over three seasons.

Three seasons is typical for projecting forward. Far better than a half season stats. I think I also used three seasons in other posts looking at Suzuki and Santana. Was I also cherry picking there? What would you suggest in general to avoid cherry picking? I know that selecting samples differently case by case would be cherry picking.

His strike out and walk data is OK. He has a very poor ISO. He has not been very successful throwing out runners. Not enough data for slash stats to be meaningful. There is very little that can be seen in 183 PAs of AAA ball.

Since 2014, Pomeranz has an ERA+ of 137 striking out more than a batter per inning. He is 27 and under team control through 2018. That kind of pitcher will get a good return in any market. It has no meaning for 2016 other than to set the bar for guys like Teheran.

I don't get the connection between the value of Pomeranz return and Suzuki (or Santana) for that matter. Young starting pitchers will get a good return in any market. I don't think it has any meaning for Suzuki's trade value. His trade value will depend on the supply and demand of catchers. It will depend on how other team's value defense at catcher. It will depend on how they project second half offensive performance. No team is foolish enough to take first half stats and use them to project second half stats. Slash stats need a larger sample. They probably go back to 2014 to project (if they use stats at all). In that case, they would see Suzuki as a slightly better than league average hitter (relative to catchers) with a very poor arm, history of poor framing numbers and adequate ability to block pitches. That has some value to a team like the Indians, but they have many other options in the market. Considering offense and defense, Suzuki probably isn't a significant upgrade to many other teams in a starting role.

Brad Radke was drafted 25 years ago. He arrived in 1995 and averaged over 30 starts a year through 2006. The Twins haven't developed a pitcher of his quality since. I wondered about today's better pitchers. What were their numbers in the minors? In particular I wondered about strike outs and walks. Those numbers are relatively fielding independent. I went to fangraphs as teams were hitting the 81 game point in the season. Starting with 2013 through mid 2016, I sorted the pitchers by fWAR and pulled the top 30. A group of consistently solid pitchers resulted with many top of the rotation pitchers. They range from Clayton Kershaw to Anibal Sanchez. I grabbed the minor league data for the group of pitchers (throwing out anything that appeared to be a rehab stint). As a group they faced 43897 batters in the minors over 10464 innings. I compared their minor league rates with their major league rates (2013 to mid 2016). K% (Majors) 23.92% BB%(Majors) 6.15% K%(Minors) 23.50% BB%(Minors 8.78% The strike out rates in the majors and minors were similar. The walk rates were not. This group of successful pitchers has significantly greater walk rates while pitching in the minors with an increase of more than 40% of 6.15. Why? Maybe there was some trouble in the low levels of the minors. I compared walk rates at the different levels. 9.32% AAA (3035.1 IP) 8.66% AA (2927.8) 8.15% A+/A (3616.9) 9.08% Short Season (758.1) The group actually had more trouble with walks in AAA. I also noticed that the group as a whole spent about the same amount of time in AAA as AA. I would have guessed that the better pitchers would have jumped to the majors from AA. The data wasn't skewed by high walk rates and different levels. I then wondered if individual pitchers having seasons with very high walk rates skewed the data. I looked at individual season/level lines and considered any line with at least 100 batters faced. There were 128 season lines to consider. There were 39 season/level lines with a rate 10% or greater or a little 30% of the total. There were 14 lines with a rate of 5% or lower or about 11% of the total. Overall there were many more season lines where pitchers exhibited significant trouble with walk rates than there were season lines with very good control. Shouldn't walk rate matter in the minors? Why did so many of baseball's better pitchers struggle with walks in the minors? I wonder if their stuff is so good that they get far fewer outs as a result of weak contact in the minors. Their stuff is so good that a batter (even at AAA) struggles mightily to put the ball in play. The result is deep counts and many more walks. In the majors, some of those swings and misses turn into weak contact and longer counts are avoided. It seems counter intuitive that a walk would be good. It might be. Maybe when looking at minor league stat lines, the strike out rate and the walk rate should be added. I added the rates and found that the majority (62.5%) of season lines had K+BB% rate of over 30%. There were few season lines (16%) in which the pitcher combined for a K+BB% rate below 25% In all of those plate appearances the batter was not able to put the ball in play. The pitcher's stuff was just too good. Perhaps we should call the K+BB% rate their stuff rate. What might it mean for an organization? I wonder if some teams see high walk rates and try to fix a problem that really isn't there. In trying to lower the walk rate, they may end up taking away from a pitcher's strengths also. The deep counts as a result of keeping the batter from putting the ball in play is a good thing even if it results in more walks. How about Brad Radke? He had a very low 5.5% walk rate and a strike out rate of 19% in the minors. Since he retired 10 years ago, the Twins seem to be looking for the next Brad Radke. Maybe that wasn't such a good idea. The google sheet with the data can be found here.

I don't think the Twins can get a significant return in prospects for Santana. I think teams will see him as the route to go if they don't want to pay the prospect cost of an Odorizzi or Teheran. They might prefer taking the contract and keeping the better prospects. Even if the Twins offer to pay salary it doesn't help because they enter the Santana market with the hope of keeping their good prospects and willing to spend the dollars. He might be at his high selling point this July. That high point might not include the kinds of prospects that some are hoping for in return.