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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I have been intrigued by BP’s DRC+ and wondered how it saw Matthews and Hicks. According to DRC+ Hicks has had three years of above average offensive play (108,114,121). Matthews only had one season with a DRC+ above 100. It was his age 31 season. I would be much more confident in the Hicks contract.
  2. jorgenswest
    Angels have Curtiss and Bard. The Twins have their money on Parker. I hope they win that bet.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am not sure of a way to pull that from BR play index but since the number of pitchers per game has increased significantly the number of all types of appearances has likely increased including those that start an inning. I did check for how many appearances were less than an inning. Virtually all of those would result in a mid-inning change with the exception of walk offs. In 2018 there were 4492 appearances of less than an inning and in 1998 there were 3479 for a little over 29% increase. Last year ranks second in those type of appearances behind 2015 (4613). 1998 fits in line with the trend with more than any year previous and fewer than any year since with the exception of 2000 (3474).
  4. jorgenswest
    This is a result of a steadily increasing number of pitchers used in each game. Since so many more pitchers were used in 2018 than 20 years ago that 11% is part of a much larger number. The number of 1 and 2 batter outing has increased significantly since the 90s but not quite as fast as the number of pitchers per game (partly due to shorter starts). Last year a record number of pitchers were used in games making the fourth straight year that record was broken.
  5. jorgenswest
    The trend of pitcher games with 1 or 2 batters faced continues up since LaRussa's use of the bullpen in the late 80's. In 1988 there were 1006 games where pitchers faced 2 or fewer batters. His impact caused a large jump in the 1990s but the trend continues. 1998: 1876 2008: 2057 2018: 2307 2015: 2588 (most) Note: In 1988 there were fewer teams and thus fewer games. From 1988 to 1998 the number of games increased by 15% but the number of short relief stints by 86%. I appreciate that MLB and MLBPA are addressing the number of mid inning pitching changes. My preference would have been to address it by no mound visit/no warm up and no restriction on batters faced but this will help.
  6. jorgenswest

    Images

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  7. jorgenswest
    1 or 2 batters

    From the album: Images

  8. jorgenswest
    Screenshot 2019 03 16 09.22.58

    From the album: Images

  9. jorgenswest

    tables

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  10. jorgenswest
    1 Or 2 batters

    From the album: tables

    1 or 2 batters faced 1961 to 2018
  11. jorgenswest
    Now that we have lowered our discourse to calling humans dogs which is never OK in any setting, I think the moderators should consider closing this discussion.
  12. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t every calculation of UZR come out the same? The subjective piece has always been part of baseball. A score keeper is deciding whether a hit is an error and 1000 people might not always make the same decision. An umpire has to decide if it is a ball or a strike. Once determined the calculation is the same. I think UZR and DRS would be the same. If we want to use a measure to project the future, it is important to consider how well it correlates year to year. The defensive measures correlate similarly to many outcome based hitting stats like slugging percentage. Like those stat they need a full season of data or more to be reliable.
  13. jorgenswest
    (13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP + constant (usually around 3.2) Some might argue that the weights assigned to each event is worthy of debate.
  14. jorgenswest
    Eno Sarris claims that there is enough sample to look at velocity. Before today’s games he was on his list of pitchers with noticeably improved velocity this spring. Of the 19 big gainers, three are Twins (Pineda and Gonsalves). Is it simply higher readings from their home park? Perez was 94-97 on the road today.
  15. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the skill of a batter. I am confident that batters will evolve to the point where extreme shifts on most hitters isn’t useful. We don’t need to ban shifting. Simply let the batters evolve to the point where they are better at taking advantage of the shift. I also appreciate the skill of the catcher. I don’t look forward to automated pitch calling though I am certain it is coming. I guess I should appreciate the skill of the lefty relief specialist. I don’t appreciate it enough to endure all of the pitching changes and game breaks. If mid inning pitch changed didn’t include a mound visit and warm ups I am good with the continuing role of the LOOGY. Inform the umpire, bring in the pitcher and start the at bat. No breaks.
  16. jorgenswest
    Should the Twins purposefully overuse Pineda next year? Of course not. I do think that they should not treat him the same as a younger longer term asset though. They should not be shutting him down on the short end of a range of innings as the Nationals did with Strasburg as he passed 150 innings. It is in the Twins interest and Pineda’s that they push the higher end of that range erroring on the overuse side of that range. Pineda is in his prime. He missed his first shot at a contract with injury. Next off season will likely be his last chance at a significant contract. He needs to show that he is fully healthy and can be very effective at handling a full load. The Twins need those innings. They can’t afford to invest into a one year asset shortened starts or extra days for rest. If the Twins are in contention later in the season they need to keep giving him the ball. If they aren’t in contention, they need to show he can handle the workload so they can trade him at the deadline. Perhaps the the term overuse in my earlier phrase “error on the side of overuse” carried to much weight. The Twins need to push the upper end of the innings expectation. It is in their interest and Pineda’s.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I appreciate the work. Pineda is likely a one year Twin. I would error on the side of overuse.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is it possible they promoted some players too fast? Hicks, Arcia, Buxton all came up for the first time with little or no AAA experience and all had difficulty with pitch recognition whether it is recognizing a pitch to lay off or in Hicks case a pitch to attack. I don’t know if Gonzalves can get major league hitters out but his own command was at best questionable in AAA last year. Major leagues hitters will take advantage where the minor leaguers did not. It isn’t clear to me he is better option than Perez though he his 3 years younger. There is more work Gonzalves can be doing in AAA with his command.
  19. jorgenswest
    Defensive stats do need a significant sample size so do many of the batting and pitching numbers that are heavily used on almost any baseball telecast. Not only are these stats presented as meaningful in a partial season sample they are often used in splits that further degrade the sample. One 2018 article with some discussion of the reliability of defensive metrics and reliability. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcasts-outs-above-average-and-uzr/ Defensive stats have evolved since 2012 but here is an early article on their reliability. They have improved since. https://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ I join those of you that are skeptical of defensive metrics in samples smaller than a full season or even more. I think we should be just as skeptical of slash stats, ERA, FIP and others that are much more commonly cited.
  20. jorgenswest
    I am not so sure. The difference between his uncertain value due to injury/age and salary may be negligible. Where is the market? Are there enough buyers to drive up the prospect close?
  21. jorgenswest
    They probably could have signed Miller for the money they paid Cruz. They would have needed to commit another year to Britton. Maybe they could have won that deal at 3/42. They chose to sign Cruz and invested in the pitching staff in hopes of being everyone forward. I might have gone with the reliever and hoped on the bat of Austin and Austudillo but it isn’t clear to me that a good reliever is the better way to go.
  22. jorgenswest
    Certainly with the pocketbook. I would have spent the budget differently. Behind the scenes with the new staff and tech they certainly seem to prioritize pitching. They seem very invested in moving all of their current assets forward. I am very interested to see how it plays out.
  23. jorgenswest
    Looks like the fringes if the 40 have some value to other teams. It is a positive sign when players aren’t easily passed through waivers. Granite’s defense in CF was second to Buxton. Kepler and Cave are adequate in CF so the need for Granite wasn’t there. I am not sure Reed will be around after they get to 25 and I hope they don’t need to go 4 deep in CF.
  24. jorgenswest
    I guess we go in circles so I will restate my original conditional “Even when everyone is healthy...” The fine tuning is an addition to the clear benefit of being able to insert a league average hitter when someone is out injured.
  25. jorgenswest
    It is a good thing. Players aren’t going to play every day and they have much better match up data. For instance Sano has done well against fastball pitchers over his career where Schoop has done better against pitchers who feature a sinker and cutter. Gonzalez has struggled more with the curve ball. The Twins will have the data and flexibility to fine tune the line up with the additional solid hitter.
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