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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Gourriel and Valencia might need to go first before teams look to Plouffe or Nunez. Escobar and Solarte are probably also available and might be better fits. The Royals value defense do it is hard to see them taking Nunez. I don't think they would equate versatility with having played several positions poorly. They probably have a better solution in Cuthbert than Plouffe or Nunez. The Indians have some flexibility. They can put Jose Ramirez at 3B. The supply might be greater than the demand. The best option could be to keep Nunez for 2017.
  2. jorgenswest
    Buxton struggles with plate discipline in the majors and then dominates AAA in 129 PAs. He returns to the majors and struggles with plate discipline. Maybe it wasn't enough time in AAA. Solution - call up Rosario and his 126 PAs dominating AAA.
  3. jorgenswest
    Oscar Hernandez might be a closer example then. Cabrera was 21 In low A. Young prospects at low levels need to be protected. Though they are years from being successful, teams can't risk losing the upside. Better to lose a Gilmartin.
  4. jorgenswest
    I assume success means that the player was lost to the organization. Rule 5 guys often spend their second year with the acquiring club in the minors. They still have options. For example Oscar Hernandez was taken by Arizona a year ago. He played as a 20 year old in A-Ball with Tampa Bay.. He spent last year at the end of the bench and is now in high A with Arizona doing well.
  5. jorgenswest
    Everth Cabrera
  6. jorgenswest
    Johan Santana
  7. jorgenswest
    I am not as certain about Rosario. He has three extremes that will makes it difficult. He swings and misses at an extreme rate. The leader in that category is often a power hitter which isn't Rosario. He swings at pitches out of the zone at an extreme rate. That can work if your out of zone contact rate is also high. Unfortunately Rosario contact rate out of the zone is below average. It is not just out of the zone but his swing rate in general is extreme. He doesn't match that with an extreme contact rate. It is possible to be successful swinging aggressively but players need to match that with high contact rates. No hitter is going to be successful long term if they swing at a higher rate of pitches than anyone else with a swing and miss rate also amongst the leaders. The AAA slash stats tell us little about his progress. My guess is that AAA pitchers aren't as deceptive and his contact rate is up. I am hoping that he has improved his plate discipline but there is nothing in the slash stats that would show that improvement.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think it is about pitch recognition. The players above were not given the time in AA/AAA to develop that skill. Even in Hicks' case, he came up not recognizing a pitch to attack. Others were stacking pitches they shouldn't. It is the same skill and the Twins didn't have the patience or plan that allowed them to develop it.
  9. jorgenswest
    Through age 25, Ortiz and Arcia had very similar offense relative to the league with an OPS+ of 103 and 101 respectively. Through age 24, Arcia had the edge. A difference is the opportunity Ortiz was given in his age 25 season by Kelly.
  10. jorgenswest
    In Paredes case, the Phillies made the trade to circumvent an anticipated waiver claim according to MLBTR. A team may do the same in acquiring Arcia. The best return is likely cash. If no trade occurs, there is very little interest.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think any trade will involve cash considerations in return. The only hope is that someone puts in a claim forcing a team with a lower priority to make a trade. It will likely mean a little more cash like the Paredes deal after being DFA'd. Extra cash doesn't help much closing out ball games. Federowicz is interesting. For some reason the Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres and Cubs have all had him in their organizations without giving him a significant shot at the majors. The bar is pretty low for the Twins. He might get more opportunity.
  12. jorgenswest
    Winning percentage as manager Molitor - .450 Gardenhire - .507 Maybe a little
  13. jorgenswest
    Where might Arcia fit? It has to be as a RF or DH. The team with the least production in RF is the Phillies. They have DFA'd Lough and recently acquired Paredes. That might be a platoon fit but Paredes has shown reverse platoon splits as a right handed batter. Milwaukee has had limited production from RF with Domingo Santana is on the DL. It probably depends on his outlook. They wouldn't want to take at bats away from Santana to give to Arcia. They might claim Arcia and DFA him when Santana is healthy. The Yankees production in RF has been poor thanks to Aaron Hicks. That might be a platoon pair if Beltran wasn't in the way. It was suggested that the Royals and Rays might need a DH. Would the Royals see Arcia as an upgrade over Morales at DH or Orlando in RF? Probably not. The A's have a similar situation with Butler at DH. The Rays use DH by committee and have a young RF. The Braves production in RF has been poor. Would they cut ties with Markakis? I think there are two teams that are in the most need of production from DH or RF without having anyone like Markakis, Butler or Morales in the way. The Phillies and the Twins are the teams most in need of Arcia.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am interested to see how Arcia's DFA resolves. The Twins must have assessed that he will not be claimed. They had other options and a great need for players with an upside. I see two possible bright sides. -Arcia makes it to Rochester and hits well given consistent playing time. -Arcia is claimed by another club. He plays regularly and hits well. The eyes of the Twins owner are finally opened and the result is new management in the front office and on the field.
  15. jorgenswest
    Is there any position where Nunez can help a winning team? I can't imagine how teams watching his most recent game at 3B or last night's game at SS could possibly want him in their infield. It isn't just error in the fourth. The ground ball from Pujols should have been an out at first in the fifth. Should the Twins see if he can play RF while Sano is out?
  16. jorgenswest
    It will be reality if Molitor doesn't play him regularly. The Twins have few left handed power options in the organization. You would think he was at least worth two months of consistent play. Had they started the season with that plan, they could be much more confident cutting ties now.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A player can get a fourth option year if they 5 or fewer seasons of professional baseball. Seasons are 90 days or more so short seasons won't count. Kepler may qualify for a fourth option. Polanco is similar but had a combined season in the Dominican League (starting May 29) and GCL (ending August 28) in 2010 as a 16 year old. I think it will help the development of both to play in AAA this year. Give Arcia consistent playing time through at least July.
  18. jorgenswest
    Buxton and Sano should be set aside from the guys like Rosario, Arcia and Polanco that have made an a appearance on someone's top 100 list. You hope they can be moved quickly. Buxton was moved up two levels a year and hit AA in his second full season. Unfortunately he was injured after 3 plate appearances at the level and lost significant time. Sano hit AA at age 20 and then unfortunately lost his age 21 season to Tommy John. The Twins correctly moved them quickly to AA. Injuries and not the Twins management slowed or altered their career path. It is the other guys that really needed the significant time in AA/AAA. It is guys that you hope make a significant contribution through their prime 5 seasons from 26-30. It is guys like Rosario, Polanco, Arcia, Santana, Kepler and Hicks that might be better in their primes if they are given that chance to develop in the upper minors. Utilize their options to get them significant time at AAA. Expect struggle when they are 24-25 and are out of options. Play them through those struggles.
  19. jorgenswest
    Let's see where he is at 200 PAs. Once there look at strike out rate, walk rate and ISO as well as pitch level data. How often is he staying in the zone? What is his contact rate? Chase rate? Ignore slash stats. They are useful in full season samples.
  20. jorgenswest
    Yulieski Gourriel could make it more difficult to find a buyer for Plouffe or even Nunez as a 3B. There is no prospect cost attached to Gurriel. http://nypost.com/2016/06/13/cubas-next-impact-free-agent-is-slugger-with-possible-yankees-fit/
  21. jorgenswest
    I think anyone would. If that doesn't happen, we can knock TR for not selling high as if players ride this month to month roller coaster of radically changing value. Value is created over years and not partial seasons. Nunez has increased his value from the level of DFA in 2014. It is a long way from DFA to top 250 prospect. It only takes one desperate team though. We can hope.
  22. jorgenswest
    He has two position for which he has played 900 innings in his career. The other positions have samples not near enough to look at UZR. Of all third baseman his career USR/150 is only better than Ryan Braun. Braun played 3B in 2007 and the Brewers found him a new position. Of all shortstops, his UZR/150 is only better than Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar. Gordon hasn't played SS since 2013. Villar persists until Arcia arrives. Poor defense leads to extended innings, shortened starts and stressed bullpens. Hallmarks of a losing team.
  23. jorgenswest
    He inability to field will make it so difficult to sell him. Two double play ball throws to Dozier today. One was bad but Dozier did a great job of staying in the bag and getting the ball. The other cost 2 runs. Even on the early fielding play to his right, his feet work put him in a poor position to throw and Mauer received the ball in foul territory. I have been thinking his only position is 3B. After today, I can't imagine any winning team would see him as a starting solution anywhere in the field. Utility fielders won't get much return.
  24. jorgenswest
    In a redraft wouldn't Bradley go in the top 10 if not better? There aren't 30 good players to have emerged from that draft. Wouldn't Trout, Donaldson and Syndegaard go in the top 3 or even number 1? By the time you get to the 20s the players in those redrafts wouldn't be very exciting. How does a redraft make sense if the only team withe the benefit of hindsight is the Twins?
  25. jorgenswest
    Awful. It would be a disaster defensively. Nunez can't play 2B. Perhaps swapped with Escobar it would move from distaster to significantly below average.
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