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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Rosario and his ability to hit enough is the key. They need his defense in LF. If he is in LF and Buxton in CF, the OF defense overall should be better than average even with Sano or Arcia in RF. I would be very concerned about an OF with Rosario in CF and Arcia and Sano on the corners. There would be too many long innings, short starts and calls to the bullpen.
  2. jorgenswest
    The team is better and deeper with Jackson. Masterson and Duensng may help as long as they are willing to cut ties if they don't pitch well. That same statement should be made with Nolasco and Fien in mind. I would pass on Stubbs. Jackson is worth the difference in salary.
  3. jorgenswest
    Evidence that Perkins can't get out lefties will come when opposing teams routinely bring a left handed pinch hitter off the bench to replace a right handed batter.
  4. jorgenswest
    I was drawn in by the statement "Perkins can't get lefties out" That is very definitive and damning statement. If the statement had been "I wouldn't count on him being a weapon versus lefties" it would have been much easier to ignore the use of the sample to support the statement.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don't have evidence either way. How could I from my couch, computer or seat at the game? You absolutely can not use slash stats. They require a very large sample. Strike out rates, ground ball rates, fly ball rates and eventually walk rates can be examined but not in a single year of the lefty v lefty reliever split. A team would have to go to the pitch level data. They then should normalize for quality of batter faced from each side. It could be true that Perkins can't get out lefties. That determination might come from video study, pitch level data beyond our access and the trained eye of a major league staff. I need to try to keep from being drawn in to these conversations. Understanding the impact of sample in a data set isn't trivial and we are bombarded on broadcasts with meaningless data in small samples. Spring training numbers are coming soon. It is going to be difficult to stay out of these types of conversations.
  6. jorgenswest
    Perkins and splits. Do we realize that it takes around 600 plate appearance or more for pitcher slash stats to become reliable? It would take most of Perkin's career to get there. Perkins lefty v lefty split would also be highly skewed by the quality of left handed hitter he would face at the end of the game. Only the better lefties would not be removed for a pinch hitter. Strike rates stabilize early. Walk rates stabilize around 170 plate appearance without a split. It would take Perkins three years to get past that level at lefty v lefty. If we go back three years, his strike out rate v lefties is 24.4% (26.6 overall) and walk rate is 4.6 (3.5 overall). That difference might be explained by the difference in quality of left handed hitter he is facing at the end of the game. It might that last year's numbers were randomly skewed badly to the left handed side. It can happen. In a small sample a mediocre hitter can hit .350 in September. Not meaningful. Just random. If the Twins assess that Perkins can't get out lefties, I sure hope they do it based on their trained eye. The data is not near enough sample to support that statement.
  7. jorgenswest
    It takes a pretty large sample for slash stats to be meaningful and reliable. I don't see how such a definitive statement can be made based on that data. What are his career numbers? Three years of lefty v lefty splits as a reliever might be enough to look at strike out rates and walk rates. Nothing more. The reality is that a left handed closer is only going to see the best left handed hitters at the end of the game. Other will be pulled for a pinch hitter. His sample too small to be reliable is likely to be skewed with a much greater ratio of the better left handed batters. It might be true that Perkins can not get left handed hitters out. One season slash stats of what is certain to be fewer than 100 plate appearances skewed by game situation can not possibly support that statement.
  8. jorgenswest
    Signing Quentin keeps them from looking for a younger option with more upside. I heard the same no risk line when they signed Kubel and Bartlett. That same winter and spring JD Martinez was available as the Astros DFA'd outrighted and released him. The Twins could have been the first team to claim him. Instead they filled spring spots with Kubel and Bartlett. It was particularly frustrating their second opportunity in March when it was clear that Bartlett could not hit. The Tigers acquired Martinez on March 22. How does Quentin fit? It could be as a bat on the bench if he demonstrates he can hit. They haven't had that bat the last few years instead carrying multiple utility players. If he demonstrates that he is a much better threat with the bat than Nunez, he is more valuable to the bench. If he can't hit, let's hope Molitor recognizes it and releases him. The Twins are stuck with the weak bench they had last year.
  9. jorgenswest
    To add ... his numbers as a starter were highly impacted by a BABIP of well over .400. At the time he was moved to reliever his FIP was close to his 2014 FIP when many were excited about his future.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Yankees DFA'd Nunez because he couldn't play 2B and fill a utility role. He may have improved his SS play from the poor level but it isn't possible to use metrics to support an improvement. The sample size for his offensive statistics are not enough to support improvement either. His strike out rates and walk rates with the Twins are in line with his career numbers. His ground all rate is up and his line drive and fly ball rates are down. That may indicate a change in approach leading to a better batting average. If the Twins believe he is a different player based on a partial year of slash numbers and UZR, they have little understanding of the sample necessary for those offensive and defensive numbers to be reliable.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is doubt in most major league front offices. They show through their roster decisions at catcher and hiring people like Mike Fast. I still wonder about Suzuki. By most measures, he is a poor to below average defensive choice at catcher. Is there some aspect of catching that goes unmeasured in which Suzuki excels? For some reason pitchers on his teams appear very confident in him behind the plate. That confidence can't come from his ability to frame pitches or throw out runners. It has to be something else. Note: the one measure where Suzuki once excelled was blocking pitches and preventing wild pitches. If true, it was baffling to me that Gardenhire would choose to sit him with the very wild Deduno on the mound. If anyone needed help preventing wild pitches, it was Deduno.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would be more interested in comparing pitch level data like swing rates, contact rates or swing and miss rates for example. The sample isn't small for those numbers to be reliable. Free swinging doesn't have to equate to poor contact or strike zone judgement. Puckett and Oliva were considered to be free swinging. I am sure they had extreme swing rates. I am guessing they matched that with high contact rates in and out of the zone. Rosario has an extreme swing rate, but his rate of contact on pitches out of the zone is below league average. That is a worrisome combination.
  13. jorgenswest
    Most hitting, pitching and fielding stats all need more than a single season's sample. The pitch level data and the strike out, walk and maybe ground ball/fly ball rates are useful for projecting based on a single full season. Rosario's poor plate discipline rate's are reason for concern. These are stats that are reliable in a single season. They can improve, but it will take a change in skill. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=150&type=5&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d
  14. jorgenswest
    Without an injury or move, it seems like the positional players are set. It is possible Park will need adjustment time in AAA. Arcia might have a really rough spring and be DFA'd but both seem unlikely. The limited positional flexibility from Park and Mauer will present a problem over the next three years. They need one or the other to play a passable corner OF. The Twins are going to want to keep Sano in the line up every day and there will be times when he is injured where he can still play DH. The Twins also have Walker in the pipeline who has a well below average arm. Either Mauer or Park may be a better option on a corner. They need to prepare Mauer or Park on a corner OF this spring. It will become necessary at some point during the season and they need to be prepared. I hope they give Tonkin a role. I think he will be a better option than Fien and could be a good 7th inning option. The two are headed in opposite directions in their careers. I agree Graham should be in AAA. He has the pitch mix to be successful as a starter. He should spend the majority of the year starting in AAA. Unless Pressly shows he is not healthy, he is probably a better option than Fien or possible Nolasco. Keeping Nolasco and Fien while designating Tonkin and Pressly could be very short sighted.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Twins should not give up on him as a starter. When they moved him out of the rotation last year his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It was a BABIP well into the 400s that was the difference between the two years. Add his relief work and he ended the season with a FIP of 3.28. The insanely high BABIP last year had to mess with his mind and confidence. The Twins were wise to get him out of the rotation. They would be unwise to give up on him as a starter knowing that his peripherals as a starter were essentially the same as 2014.
  16. jorgenswest
    I hope this is the thinking. That would mean that next year they will have 12.85 that has come off the books and the payroll number for 2017 start at 118 million rather than 110 million.
  17. jorgenswest
    Career strikeout rate dropped below 30% with last year's rate of 26.8%. Walk rates remain above 10% and fly ball rates remain above 50%. He can't afford any more drop in strike out rate and remain valuable as a pitcher. His xFIP of 4.27 last year shouldn't be ignored as an ERA projector. It would be foolish to give him 3 years. He will soon pitch his last good season and that may have been 2015. I am with Seth as far as the one year deal. I would not go beyond.
  18. jorgenswest
    Why do they need more than one utility man? Is it a greater need than three catchers? I think it is less. The chance of an injury after a late inning substitution is very small. Wouldn't another bat on the bench, particularly one with options, be more valuable than insuring an infielder replacement should an injury occur after a late inning substitution? Worst case and that injury occurs, they can play Rosario at 2B or Plouffe at SS for an inning. I believe you are correct in your projection. I wasn't writing what I think the Twins will do. It is what I think they should do. They had the worst hitting off the bench in baseball last year. They can fix that with more corner guys and fewer utility guys on the bench. If they start with a bench of Murphy, Santana and Arcia they have every position covered. The fourth guy on the bench can be given to a pinch hitter. Ideally a player that has an option left so they can go to a 13 man pitching staff when necessary. It will be necessary at some point. At that time Nunez seems like the least valuable guy and the bench and the logical one to go.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins have an opportunity to build a better bench utilizing Danny Santana's ability to play middle infield and centerfield. If Plouffe remains a Twin, it is hard to see the value in Eduardo Nunez. Santana is the better glove at any up the middle position. Santana is at least an equal option to pinch run. While Nunez has the better bat, if that is his purpose the Twins can do better by finding a better bat from a corner player. The Twins were at the bottom of the pinch hitting ranks last year and that can be improved if they don't have both Santana, Nunez with the back up catcher. There is a chance that Nunez would not be claimed and by an option in AAA if injury occurs. Teams might not want to pay the arb award he will earn. Even if he is lost, Polanco offers a more than adequate option when needed.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is difficult to measure how much his back and hip trouble impacted his ability to hit. He battled through two injuries last winter in the Venezuelan league. The second was persistent back trouble. He then had trouble with his hip early in the season. Any injury to a hitter's core can effect the swing and particularly the power. Did the injuries significantly alter his mechanics? Can it be fixed? I am glad to hear he is in Florida working hard rather than winter ball. Hopefully he enters spring training with a healthy core and improved mechanics.
  21. jorgenswest
    The Twins have an opportunity to utilize Danny Santana's versatility on the bench. Santana combined with Suzuki give the Twins coverage up the middle. The corners are more than adequately covered. The remaining two spots must go to bats that can pinch hit for Escobar and Murphy. I am hoping Arcia performs well in the spring and earns one of those spots. The other spot needs to go a guy with options that can be juggled when a 13th pitcher is needed. If Plouffe stays, I don't see how Nunez is an asset on the bench. They might be able to move him through waivers with the contract he earns in arbitration. If not, they can turn to Polanco if an injury up the middle occurs. Most importantly, Santana ability to play 2B, SS and CF enables them to address a bench that provided very little offense last year.
  22. jorgenswest
    The strength of the rotation is the depth. They might not have a pitcher post an ERA+ better than league average but instead have 8 that are reasonably close. Guys that perform as number 4 starters may not be enough to get to 88 wins but they are significantly better than replacement level. The key is the young power arms coming up in the system. A bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May combined with Burdi and Meyer taking a big step forward can make this a playoff caliber staff.
  23. jorgenswest
    The 4% should be discounted. for example it is 40 points of batting average. We have also seen how defense has helped the Royals. It is important to avoid any players who cut into the 62% that are almost always outs. When the Twins had Kubel, Willingham, Colabello, Parmelee and Arcia in the outfield a few years back, they weren't getting those 62%. Dozier is likely getting most of the 62% and some of that extra 4%. The outfield of 2013-2014 was a liability and a dilemma. Dozier isn't either.
  24. jorgenswest
    Arcia is a key. The Twins need that left handed power bat.
  25. jorgenswest
    I do agree this is a big year for Meyer. I don't think last year was a flame out. At the time he was removed from the rotation his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It ended much better than 2014 at 3.28. The difference in the two seasons early on was an insanely high BABIP that was far out of line with his career. I don't think the Twins handled it well as they tried to have him make adjustments that may not have been necessary. I expect he will be a valuable part of the staff by midseason.
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