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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    This is Falvey’s team and Falvey’s staff. Three years in the bar needs to be buyer at the deadline.
  2. jorgenswest
    Supporting the strawman... The Twins committed to 14 years and 168 million to Santana, Hughes and Nolasco to get three good seasons in return. Maybe it would be better to go big on one player instead.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins can’t top the pitcher prospect. The Twins don’t have a 25 year old catcher with promise. If the Marlins’ priorities were getting the best pitching prospect and young catcher they can find, the Twins can’t win that deal. Kiriloff, Graterol and Garver is as close as they can get to beating that offer.
  4. jorgenswest
    For 3B depth I am feeling good about Astudillo. I would love to have Gonzales for this year as an upgrade over Adrianza but I don’t want him on a three year deal and I think that is why he remains unavailable. I think his glove will be declining pushing him to a corner and any decline in his bat will not fit well on a corner. I would be interested in a one year deal but pitching is a higher priority.
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t think we need the three batter minimum. The problem is the mound visits and warm up. If you want to change the pitcher, inform the umpire and bring him in. No commercial breaks. No prolonged mound visit as they get ready. No warm ups on the mound. Play baseball. We also need to end the coach visit to the mound. If it is health related go to the umpire and check the pitcher. Otherwise prepare your team so they know what to do during the game. You don’t need a mound visit where the purpose is often to delay the game.
  6. jorgenswest
    Kirilloff may have been an upgrade over Lezcano but if they wanted pitching the Twins can’t win that deal. The Twins don’t have a comp for a promising 25 year old catcher in Alfaro. Garver isn’t close given his age and projection track. The only way to win the deal is the third piece. Add Graterol to Garver and Kirilloff, throw in some international money and maybe Realmuto is a Twin. I think the Marlins still take the Phillies offer though. The return stopped me from talking. That is too much for two years at catcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    My interest is anything that improves pace of play and adds generates debate about in game strategy. I also want to see great play from skilled players. Going outside the box I suggest trying... 1) eliminate DH 2) in its place allow all starters one re-entry during the game 3) instead of 3 batters no longer allow warm up pitches for a reliever entering mid inning. 4) add the 26th spot I think the re-entry will be generate strategic talk all game. When do you bat for pitcher? Do you put in a pinch runner defender for Sanó? Follow with a debate when to re-enter Sanó. Teams will have a need for a deeper bench of position players. Their value to the team will be greater than LOOGYs and reduce the number of mid inning changes. It will also bring back platooning. As for the relievers with out warm ups, the time when bullpen mounds were non existent or very poor has long since gone by. Want to change your pitcher? Great. Bring him in and let him go. No commercial. I don’t think we need a mound meeting for this either. Just go tell the home plate umpire. The re-entry is radical but no more radical than the DH was in the 70s. This will lead to better baseball and fewer empty moments in the game. Let’s argue about whether or not to use that pinch hitter for the pitcher with two outs and a runner on second. Let’s argue about how to use that speedy outfielder with great range and no power. I don’t know if it will shorten the game but I do believe the time in the game will be much better spent.
  8. jorgenswest
    Catcher might be shaky. I am not confident Castro will return as plus defender given his injury and age at the catcher position. I really hope they are ready to cut ties or disable him if he doesn’t return to his previous form. I am also not confident that Garver and Astudillo will be adequate defensively as the regular. Of the three Astudillo might offer the best overall contribution. With question marks for all three I don’t think it is a stretch to think they might need to turn to a Wilson or Gimenez type for too many starts.
  9. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a good glove as a 4th OF. Kepler and Rosario can play all three spots. It could be Austin or Astudillo. Cruz can finish a game. Cave is a call away if a starter goes down.
  10. jorgenswest
    I like the signing. Mid market teams need to sign and win on some of these guys. They also need to be willing to take on a few big contracts. I expected them to couple the Cruz signing with another signing. My disappointment is with that lack of second signing and not with Perez.
  11. jorgenswest
    They should battle it out in spring training. However it would be very foolish to use stats from spring training to assess which player wins the battle. We rely on the skilled eyes of the staff to make that determination.
  12. jorgenswest
    I just scanned through the deals last deadline. I don’t see a deal where the Twins could have done better. Other lefties were traded but the return of Costello and De Jong were in line with the other deals.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins can afford to pay the arb reward if they earn it. I want players hungry for that reward. I am not interested in deals where the only purpose is cost certainty without extending team control. If they end up star players the Twins will have to rewrite the last few years to get them to extend into free agency so it is no win. If the player tanks the Twins will continue to roster them because of the dollars. Keep the players hungry during arb and only extend to buy free agency years and a real extension of control.
  14. jorgenswest
    Is it considered an extension if it does not go beyond years on control? I read lock up to longer term deals as extending control.
  15. jorgenswest
    The Marlins have held onto Realmuto demanding an elite prospect. The Twins are s fit. The Twins should strongly consider this deal contingent on a three year extension with Realmuto. They should front load it the first two years. It will be expensive but the Twins should pay up.
  16. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t seem like blown saves is a very useful data point to support an argument. Bad teams don’t have as many opportunities and good teams more often have bigger leads. I don’t think we need anything to support that the Twins bullpen doesn’t look very competitive at this point. It appears the bullpen is going to cost the team wins next year and it certainly did early last year when the Twins were on the losing side of a bunch of close games.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is it reasonable to expect their payroll rank to be about the same as their revenue rank? How do the two compare since Target Field?
  18. jorgenswest
    I have two wonders about Polanco before being convinced he is a top of the batting order hitter. I wonder if PEDs were a factor in his huge spike in power (as shown by ISO) the second half of 2017. I wonder if his relatively high BABIP in 2018 gave a more favorable perception of his performance than his true skill level. One thing that has been very consistent is a DRC+ that is 3%-7% below league average. He is young. He should improve. I just wonder about the baseline where that improvement starts.
  19. jorgenswest
    A good bunter is going to need good pitch recognition and good hands. Buxton needs that pitch recognition to be a good bunter. Without it he will end up in a bad count having to swing away way too often. I don’t think regular bunting is s good plan.
  20. jorgenswest
    BPs deserved runs created based on last year’s performance suggests otherwise. Kepler had a DRC+ of 111 and Cave 90. League average is 100. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/drc-deserved-runs-created/
  21. jorgenswest
    The hidden benefit to preventing more runs at the cost of scoring fewer runs is the reduced burden on the pitching staff. If the differential is the same I believe the better team more often will be the one with fewer runs scored. It is a hidden benefit because the additional run prevention resulting from better pitching the rested staff will not show up in the data of the defensive players. If you believe in the Pythagorean win expectation the best way to improve a .500 team is to prevent runs even at the cost of scoring fewer runs. On the other hand if you are a bad team trying to get to .500 adding offense is the quicker path towards mediocrity.
  22. jorgenswest
    With Buxton’s defense they can be incredibly patient with the bat even if it takes as long as Hicks.
  23. jorgenswest
    The money to Perez only matters if it impacts roster decisions. It should have been clear that Hughes was done early last spring yet he was rostered. It should have clear at the time they dropped Sanchez. If Mejia is clearly the better pitcher and Moya is a better lefty option in the pen they need to be able to cut ties and take the loss. If the 3.5 million is enough to influence that decision it matters.
  24. jorgenswest
    I watch or listen to almost every game but I am following from the west coast. Thanks and appreciate to all season ticket holders. We need a badge or some identifier for you. Your words in these discussions should carry much more weight than mine. I do nothing to specifically support the Twins.
  25. jorgenswest
    In projecting Perez I think the 2016-2017 should carry significant weight. Last year started with injury and never went well.The 2016-17 version with the slightly below league average FIP (FIP- 102 both years) is a number 4 starter and a good value at the contract. I just don’t care about getting good value though. With their payroll space I want them to take a big risk on an elite player.
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