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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I hope he gets off to a good start. He may get a chance in Fien's role with a good start.
  2. jorgenswest
    A DH who can put up an RC+ of 120 or better is a major league player. In spite of the increasing strikeouts, Walker has been able to maintain that level of production. When he produces at that level in AAA over a season, an opportunity in the majors will arrive. The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.
  3. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  4. jorgenswest
    2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams. 2013 +16.4% 1982 +15.6% 1973 +13.8% 1997 + 7.8% 2014 + 7.7% The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960. From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.
  5. jorgenswest
    2013 - 1430 2014 and 2015 are second and third. I would guess several other teams have set franchise record in the last 5 years. It is more work but I wonder what is the Twin record relative to percent above league average.
  6. jorgenswest
    I believe Fien has an option. He should be in AAA showing the Twins he is closer to the 30% strike out guy than the 20%. With his fly ball rate, he can't survive without a better strike out rate.
  7. jorgenswest
    Either Rosario will continue to play well or the playing time will land with Kepler or possibly Arcia. The Twins will get better production from left field than Rosaro's projection. The same probably can be said at SS with Nunez, Santana or Polanco ready. Someone will do better than that projection and emerge as the starter. The Twins have too much depth at both spots. They will end up with better than replacement level production.
  8. jorgenswest
    Chris Tillman an opening day? Tillman's projections from ZIPS and Steamer are essentially identical to Minnesota's opening day starter. Tillman's projected to be very slightly better. In fact, the Orioles are more similar to the Twins in projection than any other team. They project almost the same in both runs scored and runs allowed.
  9. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. The best part of TD is the quality coverage of the minor leagues.
  10. jorgenswest
    Logan Lombana is one of the new guys in the bullpen. Drafted last year in the 25th round from Long Beach State. Baseball America, in their review of the draft, listed Lombana's above average 85-87 mph slider with Jay's slider as the best secondary pitch drafter by the Twins. They also listed him as the best Twins late round pick crediting his lower slot and quality secondary stuff.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't think there are any numbers from 23 innings of use that anyone should be interested in. FIP is based in home run, strike out, walk and hit by pitch rates. Home run rates need a tremendous sample to stabilize. The number is nonsense at 23 innings or even a full season of innings from a reliever. Tonkin's three years of time in the majors is enough sample to consider stake out rate (19.3%), walk rate(7.7%) and ground ball rate (48.8%). His xFIP(3.96) which is based on strike outs, walks and fly balls could be interesting in his three year sample.
  12. jorgenswest
    Rogers will start in bullpen http://m.mlb.com/news/article/168647328/twins-option-jr-graham-taylor-rogers
  13. jorgenswest
    Keeping Quentin for a time allows them to see if Park is ready.
  14. jorgenswest
    I like the depth in AAA. Kepler and Polanco can come up and start in several positions. Vargas can tear it up and force his way onto the roster. Catching as a whole has more depth with Murphy, Hicks and Centino replacing Herrmann and Fryer. Berrios and Duffey give depth and upside when a starter is needed and there are some strong arms very close to ready in the bullpen.
  15. jorgenswest
    I have serious questions about whether Nolasco's difference between FIP and ERA is based on 10 years of bad luck or rather his skill in pitching with runners on base. His career splits with runners on base are very different than with bases empty. Maybe he only has bad luck with runners on base or maybe it is a skill. If it is a skill, it is one that shows up in ERA and not FIP. In either case, the starting rotation is the spot. He is the last pitcher I want coming in with runners on base. I would suggest the Twins start him and give him a very short leash with runners on base innings 5 and later. Let's see how he does his first 8 starts. If he doesn't perform well, release him and go with Duffey or Berrios. If Nolasco can pitch as a mid rotation starter this year, it will go a long way toward a successful season.
  16. jorgenswest
    The best possible case for the Twins is Nolasco contributing in the starting rotation. His start today is very encouraging.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks for all of the reports.
  18. jorgenswest
    They can begin with Duffey starting in AAA. He will be needed. It is worth seeing if Nolasco can approach the pitcher he was with the Dodgers. Their rotation depth is a strength if they have Duffey ready and Nolasco has something left. The bullpen will sort itself out. The last spot is not going to shift the record. Giving it to Tonkin and having him pitch in a low leverage role might give him a chance to show he is a major leaguer before they expose him.
  19. jorgenswest
    Is there any concern that he won't stay healthy in the bullpen role. Mike Berardino wrote about it towards the end of last season.
  20. jorgenswest
    It has been the Twins practice to roster three catchers at times or roster two utility men for the bench. Those decisions have made it very difficult for a manager to use a platoon. Santana's versatility creates an opportunity to roster an extra corner player on the bench that might be used to platoon and pinch hit. Up the middle can be covered by Santana and Murphy and the other two spots could be bats.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am with you as long as results are not based on statistics from spring. Results must be based on the assessment of a skilled staff seeing the approach at the plate and on the mound. The assessment in work outs about the quality of pitches and the ability to defend in the field and recognize pitches at the plate.
  22. jorgenswest
    I don't care about the box score or any stats in spring. I do care about the approach he brings to the plate. In the at bat that happened to go for a double, he patiently looked at the first four pitches. The first two were balls. The third was a strike on the corner that a good hitter gives the pitcher as strike one. The fourth was a good curve ball below the zone that he was able to recognize and check his swing. Ahead 3-1 he made great contact on a good pitch to hit. Had he lined out to the left fielder instead of doubling, it would not have changed the major league approach he brought to that plate appearance.
  23. jorgenswest
    Mauer was underpaid the first half of his career and overpaid the second. In the end he will have been worth more to the Twins than they spent. The money is committed and they have to pay him. They don't need to roster him though. He should be expected to earn that spot based on his performance. If the Twins can improve the team by replacing him, they must do so.
  24. jorgenswest
    At some point before the contract runs out the Twins will have at least two better options at 1B/DH than Mauer. Even this year, Park, Arcia and Vargas have an OPS projection from steamer greater than Mauer's. All three have too many questions but if two are clearly better a some point this season or entering next, it will be time to move Mauer to the bench and eventually release him.
  25. jorgenswest
    Maybe Vargas should be in the bench bat discussion. I do see value in having him ready at AAA when needed for injury replacement. I also see value in utilizing his option and having him on the 25 man roster at times. Nunez, Santana and Arcia are out of options. If they are the bench, one will go when a 13th pitcher is needed. I also wonder if the Twins would consider moving Sano to 1B when a defensive replacement in RF might be used. It keeps his bat in the game and strengthens the defense in RF. Maybe he will be an adequate RF and it won't be necessary.
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