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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Sell High... How long does it take to establish a high level? I don't think it can be done in a half season. GMs aren't dumb. Players don't ride a roller coaster of value. Suzuki's value didn't change significantly after a good first half in 2014. Nolasco's value is not going to change if he were to string a handful of good starts before the deadline. Establishing value takes years of play. Nunez is having a good year and has also put together a few good years. His OPS from ages 27-29 is .766. His OPS through age 26 was .692. It should be better in the prime but that is a little more increase than typical. A mid 700s OPS is probably around what teams should expect for the remainder of this year. Assuming a winning team values defense at SS, he probably fits best as a 3B. A mid 700s OPS at 3B would rank 18th among team OPS from 3B. That is a new high in value that he has established over the last three years. His previous level was DFA by Yankees and a return the same as the Twins were able to get for Butera. The Twins should listen to offers but there could be more upside in keeping him (if he really is an 800 OPS talent) than the upside in the return.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins have to go for upside. If they end up with the 15th best player in the round, it will be a disappointment. Go back 10 years. The player ranked 15th in WAR drafted in the first round (not including supplemental) of the 2006 draft is Hank Conger. An aberration? Maybe. In 2005 it is Chris Volstad. In 2007 it is Pete Kozma. The safe pick lands them a back up catcher, fringe starter or utility man off the bench. It is far better to go for a guy with upside that may never see the majors. If they end up with the 15th most productive player in the round, that player will have little impact on the future success of the Twins. FYI- the Twins drafted Matt Garza, Chris Parmelee and Ben Revere over those three years. All have a WAR rank in the round better than the spot they were drafted.
  3. jorgenswest
    It would be unwise to extend him based on two months or a half season. It would also be unwise for a team to trade for him valued at his half season performance.
  4. jorgenswest
    Nunez was DFA'd by the Yankees. Similar to JR Graham, they had 10 days to make a move and the Twins stepped in and acquired him. Even though he had an option left the Yankees did not only wanted to remove him from their 25 but also their 40. They did not feel he could play even a poor 2B and kept Dean Anna (as well as Solarte) in a utility role. His poor defense is real and for that reason he doesn't comp well with Zobrist. His bat both last year and this year makes him one of the top 30 shortstops or third basemen even with the bad glove. His ultimate role for a team might be starting 3B. He has enough bat and it isn't as demanding defensively as SS. Teams in need of a 3B must be considering making the Twins an offer.
  5. jorgenswest
    Is there reason to be concerned that his numbers in the first inning over the last two years are markedly worse than other innings? A starter does face the other teams best hitters in the first inning but it doesn't explain a 11.70 ERA in that inning this year or the 5.04 first inning last year.
  6. jorgenswest
    Teams are too smart to get swayed by hot and cold streaks. Suzuki had a great first half in 2014 but teams look at multiple years when they project the second half. He didn't increase his value to anyone beyond the Twins. Streaks are not going to change the reality that the Twins have little veteran value to deal. Dozier and Plouffe will have more value than Nunez. Winning teams value defensive skill and owning several gloves isn't the same as defensive versatility. I can't imagine any winning team would play him in the middle of the infield with any regularity. Jepsen will be a free agent. While he closes for the Twins, he had the value of a 7th inning guy last year with a year and a half of control. Now he is a 7th guy that is a rental. It will be hard to find a taker for Santana's contract. There will be little if any competition for his contract driving down any perceived value. For Suzuki, Nolasco and Hughes, it is probably place on waivers and hope for a claim. If someone makes the mistake of claiming as the Orioles did with Willingham, the Twins must let them go (as they should have with Willingham).
  7. jorgenswest
    I looked for instances when teams changed GMs in season. I did not see an example of a team hiring away a key member of another team's front office during the season. Most recently the Tigers fired Dombrowski last August but stayed in house to replace him with Avila.
  8. jorgenswest
    1) It was a mirage but probably around 4-6 wins. Perkins was so incredibly successful the first half. Other members of the pen, Boyer and Thompson, were very successful early. 2) Mauer's concussion radically shifted his aging curve. 3) Prospects require patience. The Twins have not had the patience to give many a half season at AAA before bringing them up. The path has been AA and then the majors and then return to AAA and bounce back and forth. Fans react to good or bad months when they have little meaning statistically. We might want to wait until age 26 before deciding if a prospect is overrated. It is fair to say Meyer was overrated. Guys like Arcia who made a top 100 list in only one season were really not rated that highly to begin with.
  9. jorgenswest
    Players will struggle when enter the majors. They can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. Players might need two full seasons of major league plate appearances to make adjustments and show consistency. It is hard to wait out those 1000 or more plate appearances. There is important development that happens at AAA. Pitch recognition at the forefront as there are older pitchers with more refined change ups and breaking balls. Players should be given the chance to find sustained (1/2 season) success against AAA pitching. With that success, they can be ready to struggle at the major league level. The Twins have brought up several players with little AAA experience. Many were sent back. They need to show a long stretch of sustained success before they return.
  10. jorgenswest
    Nunez mixes poor defense and base running mistakes with a productive bat. There may not be a place for him on a playoff team but this Twins team needs him.
  11. jorgenswest
    Kepler has 85 AAA plate appearances. There shouldn't be any discussion about blocking him before he has a considerable stretch dominating at that level. If he is dominating that level at the All Star break I will buy into the argument that Santana, Arcia, Plouffe or Rosario are blocking him. The Twins have had enough guys go from AA to the majors only to have to send them back. Giving Kepler 200-250 plate appearances in the AAA isn't going to hurt his development. It is the wise path.
  12. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz is managing a last place team in AA. He did a good job the last two years when he had the best talent in his league. I am sure he would do fine if given the best talent in the AL.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins inability to recognize and develop pitching talent will keep this team from the playoffs into the future. Young under team control pitching is a key to any mid market team's success. Pitchers decline too quickly and suddenly in their careers to count on aging free agents signed to long term commitments to fill the holes. In addition, defensive talent and skill has not been a priority since 2011. They have ignored defensive reputations in the signings of Willingham, Doumit and Suzuki. They have thrown guys into the outfield with virtually no experience often giving up defense on both corners and in the case of Santana and Schafer centerfield also. Asking mediocre pitchers to get extra outs accelerates their pitch count and forces bullpen into games in the fifth and sixth inning. Any talent they have in the bullpen is overworked early and requires a revolving door on the 40 man. There is hope in their starting 9 but as they mature. It won't matter how young they are now if the pitching isn't with them.
  14. jorgenswest
    They can strengthen the lower minors. There are never enough starting pitchers or up the middle players. Plouffe, Dozier and Jepsen should merit a return of something that bolsters the depth in the lower minors. Maybe they get a return of a failed starting pitcher or catcher like the Cubs received in Arrieta. It would be a lottery ticket but they occasionally pay off though very rarely like Arrieta paid off. Most of the rest are aging players performing well below their contract. The best value they get there is someone taking the contract.
  15. jorgenswest
    Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Meyer need a long stretch of success. Meyer's 3 or 4 starts wasn't near enough. Two months might be the floor on long enough. That takes them to about the the all star break. The Twins should trade Dozier and Plouffe if they can get a return with some value. They don't need a return for the trio aging long term contracts filling the bottom of their rotation. They made a mistake a few years ago when the Orioles claimed Willingham. The Twins should have let him go instead of insisting on a marginal prospect in return. If they give the Orioles the contract, they look for a solution in the winter. If any of Hughes, Santana or Nolasco is claimed they need to give serious consideration to letting them go for salary relief and no return in players. If those three are on the 40 this winter, they won't look for other solutions. This year can't be fixed. They can stop bouncing around their best assets. If sent to AAA to develop, they must be allowed time to develop. Next year is going to look a lot better if several of Rosario, Santana, Buxton, Kepler, Arcia, Murphy, Polanco, Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, Duffey and Berrios put together solid second halfs. That is the fix we can hope for.
  16. jorgenswest
    Hopefully the extra spot on the 40 man roster is with Berrios in mind.
  17. jorgenswest
    Murphy doesn't shake up the roster. Trading Plouffe or Dozier would shake up the roster. Trading top young players or prospects for an established player with some years of team control would shake up the roster. Firing Molitor would shake up the roster. I am not advocating for a shake up but those moves would do it. Signing a replacement level aging outfielder to a AAA contract is a meaningless move. If management thinks otherwise, they are clueless. If they compound it by exposing a young player to waivers they are beyond clueless.
  18. jorgenswest
    A take on outfield defense from Ben Lindbergh http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-kansas-city-royals-san-diego-padres-outfield-defense-lessons/ Re-examining the defensive spectrum by Jeff Zimmerman http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/
  19. jorgenswest
    I think it is better to look at RF defense as a team and then look at the individual contributions. The Twins right field defense ranked 17th-22nd in the various measures. Hunter contributed 72% of the innings and Rosario 18%. Robinson, Hicks, Arcia and Kepler combined for 10%. Overall the defense in right field was adequate but not an asset.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Twins are paying Santana for games like tonight. A game that a veteran pitcher takes leadership of this team and shuts down the Royals and stops this losing streak. Will he step up?
  21. jorgenswest
    Adding... Sano was 0/29. He did have a couple of hits at the height but off the plate inside or outside. Mike Trout over his career has more difficulty with that part of the strike zone. It takes a very good pitcher to successfully and reliably locate the ball in the top third. Miss by a few inches and the ball is in the zone where Sano and many others crush the ball. Another addition... Sano has seen 6 pitches in the upper third of the strike zone this season (according to Brooks Baseball). He has put three of them in play and is 0/3.
  22. jorgenswest
    The start of the season makes it more obvious, but wouldn't a handful of games of data be far too small to point to a trend? I would think you might be able to look at strike outs, walk and fly balls in 5-6 starts from a pitcher and see if there is a trend pointing to a different skill level. A batter might need 30 games for those same measures. Perhaps I don't know what meant by a trend. If it means a general direction in which a skill is changing, I don't think a few games, a week or probably even a month is enough to point to any direction.
  23. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the research.
  24. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  25. jorgenswest
    AAA will matter if he doesn't produce. He has produced every year. The Twins have responded by advancing him every year. The only thing that matters now is how well he handles AAA. Success in AAA will lead to opportunity in the majors.
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