jorgenswest

I echo and add that his FIP was very good last year and the early BABIP of .420 was not in line with his career and had to mess with his head.

At 500 innings there isn't a better gauge. It takes three full seasons of starting to get to that point. At 200 innings, SIERA is a little better at estimating future ERA than FIP and xFIP and significantly better than ERA. Short of 200, none are very reliable. That Milone has maintained the performance for 600 innings is significant and sets him far apart from Diamond. In 2012 they had identical 3.93 FIPs and future projections based on that performance would be similar. Milone backed it up with 400 more innings of performance and Diamond did not. There is no comparison any longer.

No one would. If Diamond had 3 years and over 500 innings of 2012 performance he would be worthy of that contract. At some point performance becomes important. The better ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. At that point ERA does a very good job of describing performance. Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

Side note on using splits by inning or times faced. In the first inning starters are guaranteed to see the best the other team has to offer. The data is skewed by the batters faced. As for third time around the lineup, the data is also significantly biased. Pitchers will often make 2+ times around the lineup. The split for third time around will be heavily skewed with many plate appearances from the top of the line up and few plate appearances from the bottom. Generalizations and conclusions should not be made about a pitcher's ability to go deep in games or his ability to be strong in the first inning use these splits.

I am not certain that Milone is incapable of going beyond 6 innings. He hasn't been given the chance very often. That can happen with lefties and several right handed options sitting in the bullpen. He was asked to throw over 100 pitches much more often while in Oakland and maintained his performance level. In any case, it may not be that important. Teams are rethinking the need for a pitcher to go deeper into games. Some teams are facing success turning to their bullpen in the 6th inning. It important that he is able to pitch deep when the bullpen needs rest. I think he showed in Oakland that he is capable.

I don't think the Twins discount Milone. They will be going to arbitration with him for a second year. They shouldn't discount Milone. He has performed better than any other Twin starter since his first full season of 2012. By ERA+ (adjusted for league and park) Milone 99 Hughes 96 Santana 96 Nolasco 85 The varying ERA estimators converge with ERA by 500 innings and the sample for all of these starters is significantly more than 500 innings over 4 years. Steamer projects him to have a better ERA next year than any other Twin starter (with 10+ projected starts) other than Berrios. He is the only lefty. He is younger than Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. He has performed better according to ERA+ going back 4 years. He is projected by Steamer to have better ERA next year and likely the year following. Why would anyone discount him?

Abad's fastball velocity dropped by almost 2 mph last year and it was no longer an effective pitch for him. He added a cutter which was not effective. He also had difficulty getting out lefties for the first time as they put up an OPS of 860 against him. The combination of fly ball tendencies and decreased velocity led to too many home runs. He goes from a park that has been near the bottom every year in home run factor (27th - .777) to one that has been middle of the pack (13th - 1.058). Seems like a typical Twin reliever signing. If his velocity isn't routinely around 93 next spring they need to drop him.

Revere through age 25 had an OPS of .654Hicks through age 25 has an OPS of .655

My concern is that May will not stay healthy as a reliever. He spoke towards the end of last season about his back trouble and not having the rest days he used to get as a starter.

The Twins waited a few years before they made their first winter meeting trade. In December of 1964 they traded Gerry Arrigo to the Reds for minor league infielder Cesar Tovar. It was a trade of two 23 year olds. Arrigo made his debut in 1961 and played his first full season with the Twins in 1964. He was a left handed starter pitching in a "plug in starter/long relief" role that year. He finished the season 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA. He struck out 96 batters and walked 45 in 105 innings. He was a promising young left handed starting pitcher. Cesar Tovar was a minor league second baseman blocked by Pete Rose. He had moved into a utility role in the minors playing SS, OF, 3B and a little 2B in 1964. The Reds could not find a place for Tovar and envisioned him a utility player. The Twins were looking for help at 2B or 3B. The Twins were ridiculed at the time of the trade. Dick Sisler, manager of the Reds, commented at the time that teams did not deal lefty starting pitchers for minor league infielders. That comment certainly resonates with me. I can't imagine being very excited about trading a major league 23 year old left handed starting pitcher for a minor league infielder stuck at AAA. Arrigo had pitched a one hitter in one of his 12 starts in 1964. Calvin Griffith said they had to pay through the nose in that trade. Reports for the Cincinnati Enquirer said that the Twins were seeking Tommy Helms but settled for Tovar. The Reds were seeking a power hitter and had been trying to get Bob Allison or Jimmie Hall from the Twins. The Twins must have know something about Tovar. They had him on loan from the Red in AAA in 1963. He worked with Billy Martin and played with Tony Oliva that year. Martin pushed for Tovar. He appreciated his aggresive style of play. Tovar was a player you had to see play. He was better than the numbers. Jack McKeon was the manager of that 1963 club and he had to get him in the lineup to lead off. Trying him in the OF McKeon saw that he got amazing jumps as if he had always played there. He returned to the Reds minor leagues in 1964 and helped his team win the AAA title. Frank Lucchesi commented that Tovar killed them in the field and with the bat. Still he was stalled in his third season of AAA. When he did play in the majors in 1965 with the Twins he was the ninth Venezuelan to reach the majors. He did not play a lot with the team that year, but the Twins had Billy Martin tutoring him. He finally arrived in 1966 and was among the games best lead off hitters. He played all over the field his first few years playing all nine positions for the Twins and repeating that feat in the Venezuela winter league. The Twins clearly won the trade. Arrigo never was able to command the strike zone for sustained success. He had 1.6 WAR after the trade and one good season. Tovar is credited with 28.1 WAR. I am sure I would have criticized the trade at the time. Even more now in the era of so much data. Someone on the Twins, likely Billy Martin, saw the player outside of the numbers. He was such a joy to watch at the Met. You could see his love for the game and his all out effort and aggressiveness that somehow does not get measured well in the numbers. I hadn't see a similarly aggressive young player since until this year. Eddie Rosario's aggressive style on the basepaths, approach at the plate and range in the outfield are very much like the young Tovar when he arrived. For more reading and sources that I used to write this article follow the links below. http://www.cooloftheevening.com/cesar_tovar.htm http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/fb4be4bb http://www.baseballhistorian.com/trade_details.cfm?first_name=Gerry&last_name=Arrigo

It seems like there have been winter meetings with major leagues as long as I can remember. In fact it used to be more significant prior to free agency. Seems like one winter Bill Veeck set up in public and made a bunch of trades with the White Sox. I can remember stories of Frantic Frank Lane or Trader Lane being very active at the winter meetings. If it ever just a minor league event it must have been long before my time.

Since his first full season in 2012, Milone has an ERA+ of 99. That is better than either Hughes or Santana over that same time span. He is also younger. He is certainly worth his cost in arbitration.

The Angels probably made a mistake in 2005 by allowing Santana to develop as a starter. Six of his first 10 starts his rookie season went less than 6 innings. He ended the season better but still averaged less than 6 innings a start his rookie year. He likely tore apart the bullpen. Ten years later, teams are even more conservative with pitch count. Managing pitch count is part of the learning curve for young pitchers at the major league level. Teams can avoid that learning curve and save the bullpen by continually buying mediocre veterans who are real starting pitchers. I believe the Twins prefer this direction.

Did the relief role contribute to Trevor May's back trouble in September? Mike Berardino reported following the season. "May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have been easier to ward off had he remained in the rotation. In his starter days, his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts." http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_28924045/twins-trevor-may-has-one-goal-return-rotation

The Twins chose to add Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario to the 40 man roster. There is no doubt they have major league velocity. They also haven't found success in Low A ball yet. They opened in Cedar Rapids in 2014 and were injured early in the season. Last year both returned from injuries and pitched in rookie ball before entering low A in 2015. They need a career path where they can be established in the majors before they run out of options 2016- They really should start in Cedar Rapids again with the hopes of making it to High A for the second half. A dominant half season in Low A followed by some success in high A would be a good progress. One Option used. 2017- By the end of 2017, they hopefully can be finding success in AA. Perhaps they start by dominating high A ball. The transition to AA can be difficult. Ideally they will have spend a good part of the season at that level. Two options used. 2018- AA is the key. If they did not have a full season of success at that level in 2017 it might be the start point for 2018. Dominance should get them some time at the major league level. Third option used. Option rules do allow select players to get a fourth option year, but they’re only eligible during their first five seasons in full-season ball. Both Landa and Rosario opened 2014 on the full-season Cedar Rapids roster. I think they will get three options. Someone can help here because I am not certain. With good progress they might span the 4 minor league levels in over 2+ seasons and arrive in the majors in 2018. They will need to pitch well right away. They will be on their last option. Neither will have an option on opening day 2019 at 24 years old. It is very unlikely either will be an established major league pitcher at the point the Twins need to decide whether to keep them. There is a long discussion about the merits of keeping Pinto and protecting Jones instead. That should continue in the major league forum. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20798-article-twins-add-seven-to-their-40-man-roster-lose-achter-pinto/ Did the Twins make a mistake in putting them on the Cedar Rapids roster to open 2014? They were 19 years old on opening day. If the Twins had sent them to extended spring training instead, they would have been allowed a fourth option year. The Twins have been criticized for moving their players too slowly in the past. Is this a case where they were too aggressive?

Graham should be in the starting rotation in AAA next year. He is worth a 40 spot to see if the talent he had before the injury resurfaces.

Thanks. The context relative to other teams and players available is important.

I think Meyer will be a contributor. I think we will see an AFL guy or two by midsummer. They need to get one more solid reliever to start the season. Fien is no longer reliable and doesn't have upside. I think they can get a solid younger reliever for Plouffe to add to May, Jepsen and Perkins innings 7-9. Maybe someone like Smith from the Brewers.

I had a note arbitration last year that Milone's steamer projection was 4.49. I don't see the full run difference. Doesn't really matter though. Not worth trying to locate steamer for the rest. This objective and respected projection shows that the Twins starters do not compare well with the rest of the central. The Twins have to hope they all outperform. That doesn't seem likely. I have Bill James projections but have not compared to rest of central yet. Maybe the Twins will look better.

I think the majority of the 30+ relievers that sign multiyear deals will be signings that eventually hurt their team. They will be kept and their performance will not be at the level of playoff bound bullpen. Younger players will not get an opportunity. A single investment can be very good. Do the Twins have the skill to select the correct reliever who will produce for three years? In general, they need to sign players well above league average so their decline takes them to league average. Otherwise they get for the mediocre return of decline while paying for the previous level of performance in their prime.

Signing one of those three long term to be at the back end of the rotation would have been reasonable. The second signing needed to be a top of the rotation pitcher where the decline would have taken him to the middle. Maybe a guy like that wasn't going to sign with the Twins. Then they needed to use their prospects to get one in trade. Making more multiyear commitments to number 4/5 starters might help a team get to .500 but also makes it difficult to move beyond that. Their strength again this year is they have a lot of those guys. They have 8 guys that could pitch at the back end of many rotations. Teams aren't going to be willing to pay tens of millions for that player but it is a steal when you get that player for Sam Fuld. So they will use May to bolster the late innings. They will have Duffey and Berrios in AAA. Any injury to the other 5 and there will be no drop off in the rotation. It might even be an upgrade.

Did you read the original article and the link to Cameron's earlier study? The 11 that I added from 2013 averaged 38 innings per season. No one had an ERA under 3. Six of the 11 severely underperformed their contracts. Three of the 11 finished their contract with their teams and performed as expected (Peralta, Choate, Gorzelanny). If the argument is that using WAR or fangraph dollars as a one number summary doesn't work, they are based on FIP which is based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Would you prefer ERA? WPA?

The risk in signing a 30+ reliever to a multiyear contract is that they will be mediocre and their contract will keep them on the team. Instead of giving the ball to younger stronger arms, they will keep giving the ball to the veteran with the declining strike out rate and velocity. Trade for a younger reliever with a lively arm. Pay up for a free agent on a one year deal. Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

I would agree about the bullpen. However, it is very difficult to determine which 30+ free agent reliever will maintain their level of performance. Signing a free agent, particularly for multiple years, might add mediocrity to then pen with a contract that blocks the young relievers similar to the money they spent on mediocre starters. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8023-gambling-on-the-relief-market-simply-folly/ The best hope is that some of the young relievers are ready for the majors. The Twins might also see if they can get a younger impact reliever for Trevor Plouffe.

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here. Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is based on previous year's peripherals. Phil Hughes 32, 4.20 #121 Ervin Santana 31, 4.34 #140 Kyle Gibson 29, 4.15 #117 Ricky Nolasco 19, 4.34 (#140) Tommy Milone 16, 4.10 (#112) Tyler Duffey 13, 4.19 (#121) Jose Berrios 11, 3.99 (#92) Comparing the 169 starters projected for at least 20 starts the median ERA is 3.90 in Ian Kennedy. The ERA's in the AL are generally higher. Last year the NL had a better league ERA by 0.10 so the median AL starter might be around 3.95 and the median NL starter around 3.85. The Twins do not fare well. The Twins have one pitcher with a projected performance that would fit a number 3 starter around the league median in Berrios. Gibson, Milone and Hughes look to be number 4 starters with Hughes on the fringe. Nolasco and Santana fit in with the number 5 starters. Trevor May's projected ERA of 3.49 is based on relief work. His outstanding 3.25 FIP last year leads to his solid ERA projection. What about the rest of the AL central? The Indians have some of the best starters in baseball. Kluber(3.02) and Carrasco(3.04) are clear number 1s. Salazar is a fringe number 1 ranking 29 with a 3.44 projection. Tomlin(3.82) is a solid number 3 and Bauer is a fringe #4 matching Hughes at 4.20. The Royals have two pitchers projected better than the median in Ventura (3.51) and Zimmer(3.84). Two others projected to be around the AL median in Duffy(3.93) and Medlin(4.00). The projection for Volquez is 4.27 which is in the midst of number 5 starters. Verlander(3.77) and Sanchez(3.84) top the projected median, but the Tigers run thin after those two. Norris(4.28), Boyd(4.28) and Farmer(4.75) all project to be number 5 starters or worse. I would expect the Tigers will add to their pitching staff before the start of 2016. The White Sox have the elite Chris Sale(2.82). Thankfully the Twins owned him last year. Quintana is projected well above the median at 3.70. Rodon might be a fringe #3 at 4.05. The other two Johnson(4.72) and Danks (4.75) ranked 165 and 167 of the 169 pitchers. The White Sox might add pitching also. The Twins have a problem. They have invested too much money in the bottom of their rotation. This type of performance was projected at the time of their signing. They can hope that Santana, Hughes and Nolasco outperform their projections. One might. It is very unlikely that all three will. The Tigers and White Sox have not invested the same kind of money into the bottom of their pitching staffs. The White Sox have one more year of money invested in Danks. The Twins have 2-4 more years invested into Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. Their contracts would make them very difficult to move. If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?