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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz is managing a last place team in AA. He did a good job the last two years when he had the best talent in his league. I am sure he would do fine if given the best talent in the AL.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins inability to recognize and develop pitching talent will keep this team from the playoffs into the future. Young under team control pitching is a key to any mid market team's success. Pitchers decline too quickly and suddenly in their careers to count on aging free agents signed to long term commitments to fill the holes. In addition, defensive talent and skill has not been a priority since 2011. They have ignored defensive reputations in the signings of Willingham, Doumit and Suzuki. They have thrown guys into the outfield with virtually no experience often giving up defense on both corners and in the case of Santana and Schafer centerfield also. Asking mediocre pitchers to get extra outs accelerates their pitch count and forces bullpen into games in the fifth and sixth inning. Any talent they have in the bullpen is overworked early and requires a revolving door on the 40 man. There is hope in their starting 9 but as they mature. It won't matter how young they are now if the pitching isn't with them.
  3. jorgenswest
    They can strengthen the lower minors. There are never enough starting pitchers or up the middle players. Plouffe, Dozier and Jepsen should merit a return of something that bolsters the depth in the lower minors. Maybe they get a return of a failed starting pitcher or catcher like the Cubs received in Arrieta. It would be a lottery ticket but they occasionally pay off though very rarely like Arrieta paid off. Most of the rest are aging players performing well below their contract. The best value they get there is someone taking the contract.
  4. jorgenswest
    Kepler, Buxton, Polanco and Meyer need a long stretch of success. Meyer's 3 or 4 starts wasn't near enough. Two months might be the floor on long enough. That takes them to about the the all star break. The Twins should trade Dozier and Plouffe if they can get a return with some value. They don't need a return for the trio aging long term contracts filling the bottom of their rotation. They made a mistake a few years ago when the Orioles claimed Willingham. The Twins should have let him go instead of insisting on a marginal prospect in return. If they give the Orioles the contract, they look for a solution in the winter. If any of Hughes, Santana or Nolasco is claimed they need to give serious consideration to letting them go for salary relief and no return in players. If those three are on the 40 this winter, they won't look for other solutions. This year can't be fixed. They can stop bouncing around their best assets. If sent to AAA to develop, they must be allowed time to develop. Next year is going to look a lot better if several of Rosario, Santana, Buxton, Kepler, Arcia, Murphy, Polanco, Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, Duffey and Berrios put together solid second halfs. That is the fix we can hope for.
  5. jorgenswest
    Hopefully the extra spot on the 40 man roster is with Berrios in mind.
  6. jorgenswest
    Murphy doesn't shake up the roster. Trading Plouffe or Dozier would shake up the roster. Trading top young players or prospects for an established player with some years of team control would shake up the roster. Firing Molitor would shake up the roster. I am not advocating for a shake up but those moves would do it. Signing a replacement level aging outfielder to a AAA contract is a meaningless move. If management thinks otherwise, they are clueless. If they compound it by exposing a young player to waivers they are beyond clueless.
  7. jorgenswest
    A take on outfield defense from Ben Lindbergh http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2015-mlb-kansas-city-royals-san-diego-padres-outfield-defense-lessons/ Re-examining the defensive spectrum by Jeff Zimmerman http://www.hardballtimes.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/
  8. jorgenswest
    I think it is better to look at RF defense as a team and then look at the individual contributions. The Twins right field defense ranked 17th-22nd in the various measures. Hunter contributed 72% of the innings and Rosario 18%. Robinson, Hicks, Arcia and Kepler combined for 10%. Overall the defense in right field was adequate but not an asset.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Twins are paying Santana for games like tonight. A game that a veteran pitcher takes leadership of this team and shuts down the Royals and stops this losing streak. Will he step up?
  10. jorgenswest
    Adding... Sano was 0/29. He did have a couple of hits at the height but off the plate inside or outside. Mike Trout over his career has more difficulty with that part of the strike zone. It takes a very good pitcher to successfully and reliably locate the ball in the top third. Miss by a few inches and the ball is in the zone where Sano and many others crush the ball. Another addition... Sano has seen 6 pitches in the upper third of the strike zone this season (according to Brooks Baseball). He has put three of them in play and is 0/3.
  11. jorgenswest
    The start of the season makes it more obvious, but wouldn't a handful of games of data be far too small to point to a trend? I would think you might be able to look at strike outs, walk and fly balls in 5-6 starts from a pitcher and see if there is a trend pointing to a different skill level. A batter might need 30 games for those same measures. Perhaps I don't know what meant by a trend. If it means a general direction in which a skill is changing, I don't think a few games, a week or probably even a month is enough to point to any direction.
  12. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the research.
  13. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  14. jorgenswest
    AAA will matter if he doesn't produce. He has produced every year. The Twins have responded by advancing him every year. The only thing that matters now is how well he handles AAA. Success in AAA will lead to opportunity in the majors.
  15. jorgenswest
    I hope he gets off to a good start. He may get a chance in Fien's role with a good start.
  16. jorgenswest
    A DH who can put up an RC+ of 120 or better is a major league player. In spite of the increasing strikeouts, Walker has been able to maintain that level of production. When he produces at that level in AAA over a season, an opportunity in the majors will arrive. The prospect rankings or projections really don't matter. The Twins have steadily moved him up the ladder and Walker has steadily produced. Let's see what he does with his AAA opportunity this year.
  17. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the story. These young men have a great place to play ball.
  18. jorgenswest
    2013 set the record for most strike outs as well as strike out rate relative to AL. The Twins strike out rate of 23% was 16.4% above league average rate. The top (or is it bottom) 5 Twin teams. 2013 +16.4% 1982 +15.6% 1973 +13.8% 1997 + 7.8% 2014 + 7.7% The Senators stand out for strike outs just prior to coming to Minnesota and posted rates relative to league above the +16.4% in 1959 and 1960. From 2004 to 2012 the Twins batters struck out less than league average. After 1 game in 2016 they are 13.2% above league average.
  19. jorgenswest
    2013 - 1430 2014 and 2015 are second and third. I would guess several other teams have set franchise record in the last 5 years. It is more work but I wonder what is the Twin record relative to percent above league average.
  20. jorgenswest
    I believe Fien has an option. He should be in AAA showing the Twins he is closer to the 30% strike out guy than the 20%. With his fly ball rate, he can't survive without a better strike out rate.
  21. jorgenswest
    Either Rosario will continue to play well or the playing time will land with Kepler or possibly Arcia. The Twins will get better production from left field than Rosaro's projection. The same probably can be said at SS with Nunez, Santana or Polanco ready. Someone will do better than that projection and emerge as the starter. The Twins have too much depth at both spots. They will end up with better than replacement level production.
  22. jorgenswest
    Chris Tillman an opening day? Tillman's projections from ZIPS and Steamer are essentially identical to Minnesota's opening day starter. Tillman's projected to be very slightly better. In fact, the Orioles are more similar to the Twins in projection than any other team. They project almost the same in both runs scored and runs allowed.
  23. jorgenswest
    Thanks Seth. The best part of TD is the quality coverage of the minor leagues.
  24. jorgenswest
    Logan Lombana is one of the new guys in the bullpen. Drafted last year in the 25th round from Long Beach State. Baseball America, in their review of the draft, listed Lombana's above average 85-87 mph slider with Jay's slider as the best secondary pitch drafter by the Twins. They also listed him as the best Twins late round pick crediting his lower slot and quality secondary stuff.
  25. jorgenswest
    I don't think there are any numbers from 23 innings of use that anyone should be interested in. FIP is based in home run, strike out, walk and hit by pitch rates. Home run rates need a tremendous sample to stabilize. The number is nonsense at 23 innings or even a full season of innings from a reliever. Tonkin's three years of time in the majors is enough sample to consider stake out rate (19.3%), walk rate(7.7%) and ground ball rate (48.8%). His xFIP(3.96) which is based on strike outs, walks and fly balls could be interesting in his three year sample.
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