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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The money is a wash. Busenitz is an organizational player. The Twins might project 1 win better with Santiago in 2017. Beyond that they are both gone. Meyer is the only player who has the possibility of making an impact for his current team in 2018. This is the kind of trade losing teams like the Angels should be making. If Meyer works out, they win big. If not, they lose the difference of Santiago vs Nolasco in 2017. The way the Twins win this trade is if Santiago has a fairly good half season next year and they are able to deal him before he hits free agency. It could happen but Angel stadium is a much more friendly pitchers park. It is possible but I don't think it is as likely as Meyer being a valuable reliever for the Angels.
  2. jorgenswest
    Mejia has 8 starts in AAA. He should get at least another 5 this year. With success and a good start next year in AAA, he hopefully can be ready early in the 2017 season. There is no magic number of starts, but significant learning happens in AAA.. Most prospects don't blow batters away with raw stuff and the mistakes they get away with in the minors are barreled up in the majors. The Twins need to have the patience to develop his talent and waiting some of April has the side benefit in an extra year of control.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think strategically Lucroy would list teams without a long term catcher and some possibility of contending. That would give him the best chance to leverage his no trade clause.
  4. jorgenswest
    He needs to be up for good no matter what he struggle. He has nothing to learn in AAA. I really think Duffey is in the same position. He has 46 starts in AA and AAA. He was very successful. He doesn't need more time in the minors. He needs time to work it out in the majors. Viola and Radke were very up and down their first 50-60 major league starts. The Twins can afford to let Duffey and Berrios work out their struggles at the major league level.
  5. jorgenswest
    McCann and Norris are still in the supply with Suzuki. I don't know if the demand is large enough. Suzuki's framing and throwing probably make him more difficult to deal to a team looking for a number 1 catcher. The offensive numbers are nice and over three years above average relative to catchers. I would take the best offer which might be a player closer to 500 than 100.
  6. jorgenswest
    With Norris and Lucroy in the market, will there be an offer for Suzuki? The demand for pitching will generate offers on Kintzler, Abad and Santana. They should take the best return offered on those three. I am not as sure the demand at catcher will generate an offer for Suzuki.
  7. jorgenswest
    Watch the third base coach. Not much of a stop sign.
  8. jorgenswest
    Additional data... Best Twins defensive infielder last 6 years from BBA. Polanco's ranking following 2010 season. 2011- Jorge Polanco 2012- Brian Dozier 2013- Levi Michael 2014- Danny Santana 2015- (can't find book) 2016- Engelb Vielma Not sure about 2015 but they must have liked Dozier, Michael and Santana better at shortstop than Polanco following the 2011-2013 seasons.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don't know why the Twins aren't playing him at SS, but if he can play that position I would replace every one starting involved in the decision starting with Brad Steil and the AAA and AA staffs that see him every day. He was Mientkiewivz's regular shortstop for 2 years. He must not have given good feedback to the organization about Polanco's ability to play SS. There are two possibilities and I tend to think that the Twins are correct on this one in their assessment. I haven't seen him play regularly and have no way of judging otherwise. If the Twins are wrong a lot of people need to be cleared out. You can't miss on a guy who could be a regular SS.
  10. jorgenswest
    Nolasco through his years of team control was a number 4 pitcher or better. That would be an incredible return for Nunez. Hopefully they will have learned that guys who are number 4s in their primes aren't very useful 32-35.
  11. jorgenswest
    I would agree that Dozier in the midst of his prime. At his age, two more seasons close to this year are reasonable. The market for 2Bs seems very limited. I don't think it is anyone's top priority. His bat wouldn't play as well at DH or a corner position. His value is at 2B and there needs to be a team that has a significant need to make a significant offer. Blue Jays? Travis is healthy. Cardinals? They have Carpenter, Diaz, Peralta and Gyorko (as well Wong) under contract next year. With two injuries they have a short term need. They would seek a short term cheaper solution. Pirates? They have committed to Harrison for years with Mercer, Kang and Rodriguez. I don't see the market.
  12. jorgenswest
    I have seen Mejia pitch twice for San Jose when he was 20. I haven't seen Gilmartin in person so I really can't compare. At 20, Mejia was impressive. He seemed like a veteran though he was young for the league. I did wonder if his pitch mix would continue to fool AA and AAA hitters. He wasn't blowing guys away like Kyle Crick did on that San Jose club.
  13. jorgenswest
    Maybe. I thought Gilmartin's velocity was 86-89.
  14. jorgenswest
    It is hard to believe the AAA staff and the organizational as a whole would take a guy that might actually be the best option for shortstop and never play him there. If true, there are much bigger problems to worry about than Polanco getting playing time the next few weeks.
  15. jorgenswest
    It just makes no sense that he wouldn't play SS regularly in AAA. They have developed him to be a starting 2B and reduced the likelihood of success as everyday SS or even utility to fielder. I fear he is up until Plouffe is healthy. There isn't a good solution. Dozier is likely the more valuable 2B this year and next. They need a very solid return. Unfortunately, there is little market for a 2B right.
  16. jorgenswest
    Mejia stepped it up the year. He is a good prospect and near ready. A good return for Nunez. If his status as a prospect matters, this winter's list will have the best gauge on how he ranked at the time of the trade. Maybe the Twins can add another potential rotation candidate in the next few days. It takes several rotation prospects to hit on a few. May was on every top 100 list while with the Phillies. Same for Meyer with the Nationals. Neither look like starting rotation hits. They need to keep searching. Nothing is more critical than getting young team control starters in the rotation long term.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think most of these are mid season ranks which skew up. Many players have exited the ranks when entering the majors and the new draft crop isn't represented. Mejia has one appearance on an off season top 100 list. He has yet to appear on the off season MLB or BA lists. He was ranked 86 prior to 2015 by BP. He is a good return for Nunez but maybe not a top 100.
  18. jorgenswest
    Great trade. Mejia has just 7 starts in AAA. He isn't blowing batters away. It is probably best to have the patience that allows him to begin at that level next year. The Twins can expect to see him in the majors within a year. They just shouldn't count on him for 2017. I look forward to seeing him.
  19. jorgenswest
    I appreciate your work. When I see stuff like this questions abound in my mind. I wonder why 10 rounds? Why not all rounds? Why not 6 rounds? What is special about 10? I would guess the Twins had a below average draft position from 2008-2011. I wonder about the draft positions of the teams below them. I also order how much of the WAR above was generated by players drafted before the Twins or any specific team had an opportunity to select. Finally, I wonder if a focus on high school players vs college players would skew the results.
  20. jorgenswest
    Seth stated at the time of the trade that Chris Herrmann could be an average hitter for a catcher. If you followed his minor league career, you might make the same assessment. I keep reading posters quote slash stats, but they really don't have any meaning in his major league sample or as a career starter. If the Twins had anyone recommend this deal based on Herrmann's major league slash stats, they need to be cleared out by the new GM. His upside might have been an average bat, average arm and poor other catcher skills. That has value to the Twins and other teams. The Twins really needed to assess whether they could improve the catcher position to the point where he was an obvious DFA. Adding Murphy, who had options, should not have been that clear. Why not go to spring with both? A DFA of Herrmann at the end March when every team is making similar moves probably would have passed him through. Where is the greater need? Catcher or corner/DH?
  21. jorgenswest
    Chris Herrmann is not a good framer this year or previous. On a per game basis though, he is in the neighborhood of some regular catchers like Navarro and Vogt. Centeno (in samples over 1000) has the poorest per game framing numbers in baseball. Herrmann did pretty well throwing out runners with the Twins and has continued to do well with the Diamondbacks. Seth argued at the time that he could be an average major league hitter relative to catchers. This is not the kind of player the Twins could afford to give up for a corner guy. I am not convinced that Herrmann has the defense to be a regular catcher or enough bat to have a Doumit type role. It is quite possible that he is a better option than either Centeno or Murphy. The same personnel that recommended the Murphy and Herrmann moves are the people advising Antony right now.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think the original writer's point was that though they had high picks they didn't have the opportunity for those players. If they had tanked, they may have had that opportunity. I could be mistaken. I certainly expect them to fight for every win. Every baseball game is a joy in itself. None should be wasted.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is not a matter of trusting Murphy. It is a matter of having the patience to develop the next catcher. Patience the Twins should have shown with Hicks. They could have played another guy while he developed in AAA following the trades of Span and Revere. They can have patience with Garver. Garver has all of 39 starts at catcher above A ball and 202 games caught overall. How do you go from there to a starting major league catcher? Even Brian Harper had over 400 games at catcher in the minors.
  24. jorgenswest
    The trade deadline is of little importance compared to the need to overhaul the front office. They need a real analytics department, a real medical department and minds from the outside. Even if Antony were to get a great return for Suzuki or Nunez, that should not be the deciding factor in whether he stays as GM. What is his plan to overhaul the front office? What is his vision for the future and how will the Twins not only catch up to the curve but stay ahead of it? What is his vision for skills from a manager? Can he pinpoint where the current management has failed and areas where he needs to replace staff? Trades are a very small part of this job.
  25. jorgenswest
    The Twins have moved so many guys up with little AAA time. Will it be a mistake with Garver? There isn't a position on the field that takes more time to develop than catcher.
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