Steven Buhr

I confess. It's been a while since I posted anything on this site. Like... a couple of years maybe? There are reasons for that, but you honestly don't care. Anyway, I had some time today while I was waiting for the Vikings game to start. For the last couple of years, I would typically use that free time to work on one of the books I've been writing. But I'm taking a little rest from all that for a few days. Instead, I had a thought... Let’s FIX the College Football Playoff! I mean, the first weekend of the CFP is in the books, and almost nobody is happy, right? Okay, as a Hawkeye fan, I'm not all that interested in the whole topic, but it's all over my social media timelines, so I can't avoid the complaints. “It’s not fair!” Alright, SOME of that whining is coming from Alabama and Mississippi because they felt that even after losing in embarrassing fashion to Vanderbilt and Kentucky, their SEC membership status should have gotten them into the playoffs. Well, boo-hoo, go away. But, sure, the bracket was flawed. The primary reason is that the negotiations that convinced all the conferences to sign off on this thing in the first place resulted in a provision that the four byes should automatically be reserved for conference champions (but I bet nobody in that room would have predicted Boise State and Arizona State would be two of the first set of teams to get byes out of this deal). So, yes, as soon as those two teams got the 3rd and 4th seeds, there were going to be problems. But we can fix some of them, at least. What if… instead of simply seeding the playoff, and sending the teams on their way to play their assigned games, we let each team, in order of their seed, decide whether they want to trade spots with another lower-seeded team? Oregon thinks Penn State got a better deal because they got a walk-over warm-up home game and a quarterfinal matchup with Boise State? Fine, Ducks, Tell the Nittany Lions (or any other team on the board) that you want to swap places with them. Then, we’ll move on to Georgia and ask them… and so on, until 12th seeded Clemson finds out what slot is left for them at the end. Sound ridiculously impossible? It’s not. Well, it may be ridiculous, and it may be impossible, but it’s honestly not both. Let’s imagine how it might have played out this year. Set the stage: The CFP Committee starts calling the lucky 12 schools bright and early on Sunday, December 8 (or maybe even late Saturday night). They tell each program what their seed is and tell them to get their head coach and maybe two other people on a plane for New York to participate in the “CFP Bracket Extravaganza,” the live television rights to which the CFP has sold for a zillion dollars to Disney/ABC/ESPN. The format is simple… and dramatic. At the appointed prime-time hour, Oregon will go “on the clock.” They will have FIVE MINUTES to announce whether they wish to keep the spot in the bracket that they’ve earned by being the 1-seed (and host of the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals) or TRADE that spot for any other spot in the bracket. Once they make their decision (or the giant clock above the stage in Madison Square Garden hits 0:00), Emcee Scott Van Pelt announces, “The Georgia Bulldogs are on the clock!” and cameras focus in on Kirby Smart, his Athletics Director, and the M.I.T. kid they’ve hired to quickly analyze their chances of beating every other team in the CFP field. You have to admit, this would be great theater! Not ready to admit that? Okay. Let’s play it out. Here’s the “big board” we start out with: Everyone just assumes Oregon’s Dan Lanning and his cohorts will keep the Ducks’ spot and then take in a Broadway Musical, but just MAYBE they’ve looked at the board and feel envious of Penn State’s route through the bracket. “We sit around for three and a half weeks getting rusty and then get Ohio State or Tennessee after they’ve worked their kinks out against one another the week before? Meanwhile Franklin’s guys at PSU get a home walk-over game and then Boise Freaking State in the quarters? That’s not right!” Lanning complains to his AD, although there would be conflicting reports concerning whether he actually said “Freaking.” The intern they brought along from Microsoft can be seen on camera nodding his head at Lanning. He also doesn’t have to work too hard to convince his AD. After all, swapping with the Nittany Lions means the Ducks will get an extra home game out of this deal! And we all know that there’s NOTHING Athletics Directors of big-time college football programs covet more than an extra home football game. So, the fifteen talking heads that ESPN has on hand get their first shock. “Oregon swaps their seed with Penn State!” Van Pelt announces and then has a laughing fit before composing himself to add, “The Georgia Bulldogs are on the clock!” Cameras switch to the Georgia table where Smart and buddies are also laughing. Then, he doesn’t even fill out a card or press a button or whatever method the Disney people have come up with to communicate the teams’ decisions. He just stands, waves his hand at the stage and shouts, “No, we’re good! Thanks!” Instead of walking to the microphone, Van Pelt just takes one step onto the stage and shouts, “Boise! You’re up!” Now, NOBODY is going to expect Boise State or Arizona State to give up the byes that, let’s be honest, they did not earn on the football field. But Spencer Danielson has done some homework. Well, that or he just looked up at the huge display board and realized that instead of facing the winner of Penn State and SMU, he’s looking at the prospect of a quarterfinal game against Oregon! “Boise State swaps their seed with Arizona State,” Van Pelt announces. “What say you now, Sun Devils?” The cameras immediately pan to the ASU table where one member of their contingent is shown saying one word. It clearly started with an F, and it probably wasn’t “Frig.” They chat about it, but the reality is, they can’t make a move. In all likelihood, someone at that table said (or at least silently thought), “Hell, we’re not going to beat anyone we play, anyway. Let’s just stay where we’re at. At least now we’re going to play in the Fiesta Bowl. So, we’ll get Oregon in our back yard. Who knows? Maybe we’ll get lucky.” “Arizona State keeps their current spot. The Texas Longhorns are on the clock!” The cameras show Steve Sarkisian in a heated debate with AD Chris Del Conte. Kirk Herbstreit states the obvious to the TV audience (hardly a rarity, I know) “The Longhorns should move up and grab that bye away from Penn State.” “They should, yes, but there seems to be some disagreement at their table,” Rece Davis points out. You don’t think Del Conte is refusing to give up that first-round game in Austin, do you?” The rest of the panel laughs. The clock shows less than ten seconds left when Sarkisian leaps to his feet and yells, “We’ll take that bye from Penn State!” Del Conte stands up and stalks out of the room. “The Texas Longhorns will swap with Penn State. Penn State is on the clock,” Van Pelt announces. Then he adds, “Stay tuned to learn whether Coach Sarkisian will be coaching that game for the Longhorns.” Once again, the talking heads are unanimous concerning Penn State keeping their new spot and hosting Clemson. “Ironically, that would give them a potential quarterfinal game with Boise State… just like they would have had if everyone had kept their assigned seeds,” Nick Saban points out. Five seconds later, Van Pelt announces, “Penn State has swapped their seed with Notre Dame.” “What!?” several voices cry out into hot mics. “They must have really wanted to get a shot at Indiana,” Desmond Howard laughingly comments. In an interview with Holly Rowe after the announcement, PSU coach James Franklin did, indeed, say, “We simply felt more comfortable with a first-round matchup against the Hoosiers than with Dabo Swinney’s group at Clemson.” Asked by Rowe whether the difference was great enough that they were willing to accept a potential quarterfinal game against Georgia rather than Boise State, Franklin replied, “Honestly, you know, five minutes isn’t a lot of time, and things were happening so fast. We started as the six seed, then we were number one, then we dropped to five. It was hard to keep up. And then we were on the clock! So we didn’t have an opportunity to discuss that aspect of the decision. But at Penn State, we’ve always preached focusing on one game at a time, without regard to whoever might be next on our schedule.” “Well… clock management has never been Franklin’s strong suit,” Saban comments after Rowe’s interview concludes. As the telecast cuts to commercial, the entire table of ESPN analysts are laughing. On returning from commercial, Rece Davis catches the TV audience up. “While we were gone, Notre Dame decided they are not afraid of the 12th seed in the playoff and will happily host the Clemson Tigers that Penn State wanted no part of. Immediately after that announcement, Ohio State indicated they would stand pat with their number eight seed. Ninth seeded Tennessee is now on the clock, and are considering whether they are fine with their contest with the Buckeyes or would prefer to try their luck elsewhere.” “Tennessee has swapped its seed with Indiana. Indiana is now on the clock.” Van Pelt announces. Nobody on the telecast blamed the Vols for choosing a date at Penn State over traveling to OSU. The consensus being that, seedings aside, almost the entire panel would have preferred playing Penn State rather than the Buckeyes. The Hoosiers immediately decided they wanted no part of a rematch with Ohio State, opting instead to swap with 12th seeded Clemson. SMU, faced with keeping their new matchup with Oregon or swapping with the only team seeded lower than they were, Clemson, decided to take their chances against the Buckeyes. That left Clemson pitted against Oregon. Confused? Don’t be. Here’s the resulting CFP bracket (pardon the low-tech effort): Some interesting results to note: Only Georgia and Ohio State retain their original seeds. Everyone else either elected to swap or were given no choice but to do so. Indiana still goes to Notre Dame for a first round game and embarrasses itself. Lane Kiffin still shares his ignorant tweets, rather than spending his time game planning for that big rematch at Kentucky he’s got coming up on September 6. SMU most likely gets blown out even worse by the Buckeyes than they did by PSU. Clemson gets what a 12th seed deserves—a total thrashing by the number 1 seed. We may get at least one competitive game out of the first round this time. Tennessee possibly may give Penn State a better game than they did OSU. But don’t count on it. This time, it’s the Fighting Irish who get some help in the quarterfinals, facing Boise State in Atlanta (instead of Georgia in New Orleans). Likewise, Oregon avoids a clash with Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, getting Arizona State, instead. It’s essentially a home game for the Sun Devils, though, so there’s a reason to watch the first half anyway. Penn State’s clock-management issues once again bite them in the butt. Instead of a quarterfinal game against Boise State (which they would have had in the existing format OR if they hadn’t chosen to swap spots with Notre Dame to avoid that pesky 12-seed Clemson squad), they go to New Orleans to get their butts kicked by a rested team of Georgia Bulldogs. Ohio State has an even easier time with SMU than they did against Tennessee. Their resulting quarterfinal matchup against Texas is no cupcake, but at least they avoid Oregon (unless/until both teams reach the championship game). So, not a bad result, right? And here’s the best part… nobody gets to complain!* No “It’s not fair that they got a warm-up game and we hadn’t played for three weeks.” No “That worse-seeded team got an easier path to the finals.” You literally had the chance to swap with EVERY team assigned a worse seed than you were! Too confusing? No. That's part of its beauty! It’s confusing enough that anyone who tries to complain will assume they’re missing something obvious and won’t want to sound stupid by bringing their gripe up. *Well, yeah, Kiffin and the other SEC coaches that didn’t get in will still complain. They’ve never cared about how stupid they sound by complaining. But nobody outside the south listens to those guys anyway. They still think the SEC should get 8 of the 12 CFP spots… or more. Oh! Vikings game is starting! See ya!

I don't want to assign a comparable. But he's just one of those guys you start to take for granted. Somewhere around the 3rd inning, there will be an eye-catching play made at SS that will make you say "Wow!" Then, you're like, "Oh... yeah... that's Miller out there tonight."

I'm not going to make excuses for him, but I will say this much... he's had PAs where umpires clearly weren't adjusting their strikezones to account for his height. He clearly has higher knees than pretty much anyone, but he gets "shin high" pitches called strikes with considerable regularity.

Couple of observations... I agree the Nowlin performance at AA is surprisingly positive. When he was promoted, I was skeptical... he just hadn't impressed me in the several starts I'd seen in CR. But whatever the Twins minor league staff was thinking, they obviously got it right. Hope he keeps it up! Miller's situation makes me smile. He's SO good in the field and everyone you talk to at the ballpark would say, "If he could just hit a bit better." Well... he has. And more than a bit. It's been so fun to watch him prove himself at the plate this month. And McCusker. Wow. 6 HR in 13 games in CR. Extrapolated over a full season, that would be... um... a lot of dingers. Just a real feel-good story there. Hope he keeps it up as he moves up the ladder.

The challenge system makes no sense at all. When the tech reaches the point where it is accurate and consistent, use it for every pitch. To KNOW whether a pitch is a strike or not and ONLY correct mistakes if it's challenged is dumb. Which means that's what baseball will opt to implement. MLBPA has a segment of their membership (catchers who make a good living framing pitches) who will not want to see their value diminished. Umpires' union will balk because it takes some authority out of umpires' hands. At the very least, both unions will want concessions in return for accepting the change... and MLB won't be so enthused about it that they're willing to give in on anything important in those negotiations.

Great article, Lucas! You've provided some helpful insight into the situation. I also grant that the Mets and Giants (but especially the Mets) come out of this looking bad. That said, I'm just a little more cautious about piling on. Those front offices are now face a significant disadvantage, as compared with Correa. While Correa obviously waived his HIPAA privacy rights to some extent, that doesn't mean the Mets and Giants are now free to discuss his medical information with media/fans (or anyone else). Such a waiver is not a blanket waiver allowing anyone and everyone with knowledge of his medical information to disclose/discuss it publicly. Correa, conversely, is free to share whatever information he cares to (and can enable his agent to do so, as well). But even after he and Boras speak publicly about it, that doesn't throw the door open for others to do so. The result is that, even if the Mets wanted to step up and say, "Wait a minute... it wasn't JUST the Giants' doctor we relied on. We had these opinions from four other doctors, and this is what we found out AFTER we agreed on the contract numbers that made us feel we couldn't stick to that deal," they aren't allowed to do so! The result is that they are left largely unable to defend themselves by explaining their thought processes. It doesn't mean the Mets (and, especially, their owner, who unwisely spoke publicly about the signing before anyone had signed anything) weren't stupid. It just means they aren't as free to detail WHY they were stupid to the degree they might like to.

What you're suggesting perhaps SHOULD be the case, but I'm skeptical. I think it would take something bordering on catastrophic like a 90+ loss season to cause another complete management shakeup. If it's another .500 season, with enough injuries to point to as excuses, I don't see ownership making wholesale changes. Maybe the FO would axe Rocco to save their own jobs, I suppose. I also don't think they'll be "using that money" that would come back on the books with a Correa opt-out. In fact, Assuming Correa is gone, what do you expect the Twins' opening day payroll to look like in 2023? It was $134M this season... a club record. Do we really think it will be at that level (or even higher) next season? I don't. I'd set the over-under at about $125M. That's the level at which I probably wouldn't want to put money on either side. And, at that level, I don't see it as likely they put together a roster that would be a serious contender to do more than what they've accomplished this year... merely being at least arguably competitive in the AL Central.

I have no idea what credence people give to baseballtradevalues.com values (It's probably been beaten to death here, but I admit I don't peruse the comment sections like I used to, so forgive me if such is the case), but I've found it to be surprisingly accurate when I look at trades that occur. For example, according to the tool, The Yankees received $8.1M in Benintendi's median value, for which they gave up 3 minor leaguers with a total value of $7.4M. So... not too far off. So, just for comparison, here are that tool's top 5 Twins based on trade value: 1. Polanco 39.4 2-3 (Tie) Ryan, Arraez 32 4. Larnach 28.4 5. Lewis 26.1 And, just for kicks, these 3 players also had median values of $20M+: Kirilloff (24.2), Kepler (22), Miranda (20.3). Interesting others of lower value: Buxton (13.2), Correa (15.4), Duran (15.1), Jeffers (17.8), Martin (11), Ober (15.2), E. Rodriguez (14.2), Steer (14), Thielbar (10.1), Winder 13.2. Are there some headscratchers there? Yeah, seems like it. For example, some guys on IL are probably not valued terribly high until their recovery from whatever ails them is assured. But it's a fun tool to look at whenever trades are proposed.

Interesting enough to look into deeper. I think you're probably going to need to give up quite a bit more to get Syndergaard. Think something like Julien or Celestino, in addition to what you proposed. Bard for Povich sounds about right. Could see something like that happening (though Povich has not looked as great lately as he had been). I think you're being way too generous for Moore. Julien, alone, is probably too much for Moore, imo. I applaud trying to get anything out of Sano, but that's going to be tough to do. Sano's value is so far below "zero" that they're stuck with him until they're ready to simply DFA him. I suspect they'll see if he can do something... anything... to resurrect his value. And, yeah, one of those catchers for a PTBNL makes a lot of sense. I think the Twins should be aiming higher than you're inclined to believe, but if you're looking at Syndergaard/Hill types, I'd be more intrigued by a lefty like Blake Snell. Bad start, but trending a little better the past month.

I agree. Not saying I agree with that approach, just that it has that feel to me. I've always believed games you add in the W column in April and May count just as much as those you rack up the rest of the season. Now is when you step on the gas. Bury the competition, and make THEIR front offices question whether there's any point to "buying" at at the deadline. Make them decide to be sellers as soon as possible.

I'm not buying this. If they had NO plans to contend, it made no sense at all to give Correa what they had to know... maybe even expect... to be a 1-year deal. They were planning on contending with the White Sox... maybe Cleveland. It seems more likely, to me, that they're looking around and thinking, "We've had half the team on the IL and nobody has closed the gap on us. The rest of this division REALLY sucks! We can coast a little bit, make some deals at the deadline and make a run at things this year."

See, this is where you lose me... If struggling "happens to everyone," so it's inevitable with Lewis, then sending him down now just prolongs that event, doesn't it? I don't necessarily believe he MUST have some kind of inevitable meltdown beyond just regular slumps, but if the premise is correct, why wouldn't you want to get that out of the way sooner, than later? I simply don't buy that spending some time learning positions that are LESS demanding would threaten his sensitive psyche.

This is an example of the FO using the convenient explanation and hoping nobody notices it's inconsistent with what they've done over and over again with other players. Lewis did not "need" to go down, and sending him down now could cost wins. It certainly doesn't INCREASE their chances of winning games he misses while he's in St Paul. I won't say "The FO doesn't want to win this year." However, I will say the FO doesn't appear to be all that concerned about winning every game possible. Maybe that's fine. Maybe they feel they're going to win this weak division with several games to spare, or at least they feel there's a reasonable enough chance of that being the case that they're willing to roll the dice on it. As for the service time issue that's been brought up, I simply don't know where all that landed with the new deal MLB made with the Union, so I have no idea if that's even a consideration at this point. I would hope not.

I was bumfuzzled this morning when I read Lewis was sent down instead of Miranda. The Twins have struggled to score runs, so they elect to send down a guy who IS producing offensively, and keep a guy who clearly could benefit from some AAA at-bats? As usual, of course, I come to TD and discover a couple of things. 1 - I hadn't paid close enough attention to realize Garlick also has an option left. Of course, this just made me more confused, They could have demoted a LHP-hitting-only platoon option and kept both Lewis AND Miranda (since, sure, he has some defensive benefit at the moment)? 2- But then, reading through the possible rationales for this move, I realized there was one more thing I had NEVER known... Apparently, games you fail to win at the end of May don't matter as much as those you could lose at other points in the season, so banishing one of your hottest bats to St. Paul for at least a couple of weeks this time of year isn't really a big deal. So glad to know that. Can't believe I never heard about that before, they say you learn something new every day.

Looks like we should get our first look at Stankiewicz in CR sometime the middle of the upcoming homestand. I'm looking forward to it. Gotta love to see a guy who comes in with little fanfare and just does the job every time he gets handed the ball.