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roger

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roger last won the day on February 5

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About roger

  • Birthday 02/13/1945

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    retired, options trader

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  1. Interesting. Also, true. Let’s cross our fingers and hope for the best for this young man.
  2. Damn, Doc, I wish I could express my thoughts as well as you have for me. Thanks. Have been talking for awhile that an ACE isn’t what is important. Give me a staff with #2-#4 better than the team I am playing and I am gonna win series, lots of them. And great #2-#4 are a lot easier to find/develop. And a heck of a lot less expensive. Come to think about it, this may be what the FO has been doing this past year or so.
  3. Doc, don’t know if you saw my comment above. Go to the Twins site and the post about Cruz working with Arraez again this year. They work from 7-4 and again at night. The point I got was their talking about his hamstring injury this year, not knee.
  4. This is one of the belief's in baseball that drive me nuts. Yes, a good team has a mix of on base guys, power guys, and guys that can do both. But what I don't understand is what difference it makes where they play in the field. If my on base guy is a first baseman and my power guy is a shortstop, who cares. Remember back when most of the shortstops were light hitting with zip power. Then there was Ernie Banks. Where the guy plays in the field shouldn't have any effect on his value as a hitter. edit. Read something on the Twins website about his injury this year. It wasn’t his knee, rather his hamstring. Talked about his going to the D.R. To work with Cruz on his conditioning. He was lighter and healthier this year. Sounds like he wants to take another step next year.
  5. Interesting. Arraez seems it should be higher. But he also jumps on the first pitch a lot if he likes it. Expect that evens it out.
  6. Have been a huge Arraez fan since he was in the low minors. Kid can flat out hit. Yes, he doesn't have a lot of power, but he will get on base at a very high rate. And let's give this young man credit for something he does that nearly no other Twins do, work the crap out of pitchers. I don't know the numbers, but I'll bet there were some games where the opposing starting pitcher threw a quarter of his pitches to Arraez. In today's game where the most important piece of equipment is the 'pitch tracking gigmo', having 7-8-9-10 pitch at bats is an asset, a huge asset. I also am uncertain to what the problems are with his knees. I don't recall seeing a lot written about the real medical problem. Is it something that is expected to be permanent? Or has he had a couple years where he developed some problem. So the knee problem may not (or it may) be a major concern to a longer term contract. For a kid who was elated when the Twins scout returned and told him they had found what was it, $40,000, I expect a reasonable extension can be worked out. In my opinion, get it done.
  7. Great topic and great young player. I say, yes, get it done. Must disagree with one of your comments, however, I believe he does have a defensive position and that is first base. For not having played it, he did a heck of a good job. Also got a good smile from your comment that FanGraphs had his value at $38M. As Rodney Dangerfield once said, they should probably be renamed to FantasyGraphics.
  8. Early in your post you state that neither Polanco or Arraez have been particularly valuable on defense. Seeing the number of innings Arraez had played first prior to last year was a handful, if any, it is understandable that he made some mental errors . But the player I saw got better as the season went on, until his knee limited him to part-time DH the last several weeks of the season. But wasn't Arraez the runner up for the AL gold glove at first base? That sure as heck seems to me that he would have to add some value to earn that consideration. Spring training was so short last year and I doubt they expected Luis to be their first baseman, so I suspect he had minimal reps at first, if any. With the off-season and normal spring training I can see Arraez being an excellent first baseman, even though he isn't built like one.
  9. Heck GKuehl, with our Manager they need three or four of those long relievers.
  10. You nailed it Doc. They have no opening day starting shortstop, other than moving Polanco which they don't want to do. But they have at least 2 third basemen. As you said, this type of move makes a ton of sense, although like many I really liked Urshela.
  11. The Twins must take into consideration who Maeda is. I have seen him as a very serious person, perhaps some of that has to do with his Japanese culture. So I expect he worked hard on his rehab. None of us know whether or not he could have returned for a few starts or relief appearances last September. But the Twins were out of it and "why push him." There is a realistic chance that Maeda can return as the starter he was before his injury derailed his 2021 season. It is also likely that his elbow was the reason his velocity and performance declined well before being shut down. This guy has always appeared to me to be the ultimate professional. So I expect there is a strong probability he will return as the pitcher we knew in 2020. I expect the Twins have him penciled in as one of their starters and where that fits into the rotation will be decided in spring training. I also expect they are aware that there will need to be some limitation on the number of innings he can throw. Should he not perform in spring training, they can easily move to Plan B with either Winder, Varland or SWR moving into the rotation on opening day.
  12. Must disagree Matt. I expect the Twins know they aren't getting Correa and are planning on Farmer being their starting shortstop until Lewis is ready come June or July. Farmer then moves to a super utility role for the balance of the season, starting somewhere every time they face a lefty.
  13. Question. You begin talking about the Twins needs. Yet, you fail to mention catcher which I maintain is their greatest need, perhaps three catchers needed. There are three veteran starters who all should be considered for extensions. What the pecking order is for that group is hidden in the minds of those who make these decisions. Timing is also a question. Do they talk to one or more this winter? Or do they wait until spring training to get a feel for their respective health?
  14. I expect the Twins believe that Royce Lewis will return healthy and be the shortstop we all have hoped for since whenever. I also expect they know they will not be resigning Correa, although I expect they are making a real attempt to do so. So that puts your plan A front and center. I believed that the Twins biggest need entering the offseason was signing two or even three catchers. They need a solid starter and a Leon type on a minor league deal at St. Paul to be an injury backup and to work with several exciting young pitchers. They also need to find a solid young prospect who will be at AA or higher. Their other needs, IMO, include a short-term shortstop to fill the position until Lewis, or Lee, is available. Their only other need on my to do list was getting a top quality late inning reliever. Although I knew nothing about him prior to Friday, he seems to fill the bill for need #2. They certainly have a ton of money available for the catcher(s) and bullpen arm. The truth, however, is there is no way they can spend enough to get them anywhere near last year's total. So I expect the wolves will be out as we go thru the winter and their spending remains below what most of you expect. The bright spot of having those dollars, however, should enable them to have serious conversations with several of those starting pitchers and a few of the young guys like Arraez, Miranda, et.al. Spend those dollars wisely and the Twins may again be set to compete for the next five plus years.
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