jorgenswest

Platooning at catcher might often leave the Twins on the wrong side of the platoon late in games. Thinking through how they want to manage those late in game situations is essential. Do they pinch hit knowing they are down to their last catcher? Do they carry a third catcher? Do they lose the platoon advantage and stick with the starting catcher?

Castro's signing shows what Falvey values in a catcher and defensive metrics. It is a 180 degree turn from the Ryan era. Falvey does seem to be getting a pass on this one as those critical of the signing and skeptical of framing metrics are leaving Falvey out of the discussion for the most part. This is his first mark on the organization. Unfortunately, it is no longer possible to acquire a weak hitting catcher with good receiving skills at a bargain contract. The Twins missed the boat on that one and now Falvey and the Twins are paying full retail for the skill.

I hope Garver is a future starter. There are a few reasons to be concerned. Garver is older than John Ryan Murphy. He was very old for a AA prospect. Prospects are not usually near their prime when they play that level. His defense is often referred to as improved which is better than not improved but usually not indicative of a good defender. Sickels recently wrote a report of Garver and his improved defense. You can find Sickels having a very similar take on Josmil Pinto in 2013. We can hope that Garver is a legitimate starting prospect but there are good reason to be skeptical of both his offense (due to his age at the level) and his defense. The Twins can't afford to hope on Garver. They need to be certain that he can receive the ball and give pitchers extra strikes rather than cost them strikes and give the batters more hitters counts. A plan of Garver starting as the top catcher in AAA and signing a defense first catcher for the major league team is probably the best option.

Time will tell. I hope you are right.

He doesn't make the top team prospect list in BBA and isn't among the hundreds in the minor league baseball analyst. It isn't his bat. Antony one of improvement on his radio show this summer. Most recent comment came from Sickels and the fall league this year. "Garver has made considerable progress refining his defense, throwing out 50% of his runners this year" That is good news but they don't make those kinds of comments about good defenders. He could have said he is a good receiver or even average receiver but went with improved. It also sounds as if the improvement is in the throwing game. I think it will be the receiving and game calling skills that will be valued by Falvey. I expect he will seek an above average receiver and not worry about the bat at catcher. Garver will have an opportunity to show he can defend at that level in AAA. If isn't at least an average receiver, he will probably go the way of Josmil Pinto. if Garver is a good receiver, Falvey will recognize it and he will play.

Cleveland was a defense first organization at catcher. They were horrible offensively, Gomes was hurt and they still had no interest in Suzuki. They stuck with Perez who can't hit but does everything well defensively. If Falvey brings that same model, I can't see him giving the catcher job to Mitch Garver. It could be that Garver is a very good pitch framer and game caller. That has never been his reputation though. Turner has had a reputation of a good defensive catcher. I think both will start in AAA and their defense will be under the microscope with the better defender getting the nod when needed.

Neither split sample is enough to draw a conclusion about Vargas' ability to hit left and right handed batters. It takes a large sample for slash stats to become reliable - particularly those chunked over the first three years of a career. Did you know that in each of the last three years in the minors he hit better against right handed pitching than left? At Rochester last year, he had an OPS of 926 against right handed pitching and 484 against left handed pitching. Over the last three year he has been better against right handed pitching when combining majors and minors. That doesn't mean anything either except to point out the need for a large sample to make sense of situational slash stats. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=573627#/splits/R/hitting/2016/MINORS

Solid offense doesn't do a good job of making up for poor defense up the middle. There are just too many opportunities for lack of range, poor feed on the double play and errors to occur at those spots. When that happens innings are extended, pitch counts are extended and bullpens are overused. The burden on the pitching staff of poor defense at key defensive positions takes a toll in places beyond a player's defensive ranking. I still do think it is possible that the Twins find a way to play Polanco at SS. They need to mare than make up for his deficit at catcher and center field in order to play him. Buxton should be the starting CF all year. They need a real back up plan that can actually be a plus glove in CF though. Santana is not an option. Rosario and Kepler are not options for any long term play in CF. The combination of any of those three and Polanco would be a losing one. If they want to play Polanco, they need a catcher who can contribute more outs stopping the running game. They need a catcher with receiving skills that is on the plus side of framing strikes. A handful of extra pitches every game will lead to more innings from the starters. It is not a matter of just raw count either. Getting that extra strike in any at bat is going to shorten the entire at bat. Starting 1-2 vs 2-1 or 0-1 vs 1-0 will force the batter to be more aggressive and swing at pitches outside the zone. The Twins don't have that catcher ready for next year. It isn't going to be Centeno. It isn't going to be Garver. I don't know if Murphy can be that framer. For his career, he is a plus. He isn't going to contribute outs in the running game. Want to start Polanco? Find a defense first catcher (no bat required) and back him up with Murphy. Do you like the possibility of Garver's bat at catcher? Find a defense first SS and see if Garver can be ready by June. Want to give up a lot of runs and burden the bullpen? Play Suzuki, Polanco and Rosario(or Santana) at the key up the middle spots.

Falvey needs to shake up the pitching staff throughout the system this winter. I hope he has Pohlad's blessing on a short leash for Molitor in 2017. A shake up during season may be necessary.

This starting staff seems so far away from winning. Might be wise to trade Ervin before he falls. Is this team going to contend next year? What will Ervin have left two years from now? They must get starting pitching in any return, but maybe that starting pitching is going to be a key piece towards a contending team.

By age and rank at position, Maeda is a good fit. There is a premium on starting pitching so the Twins would probably have to send an arm to the Dodgers. Maeda also has a laden incentive contract that is very reasonable with longer control. He doesn't have a long track record though. Dozier has three solid seasons from which to project forward. A popular name to throw out in this site is Stewart, but I have to think that the Dodgers might not see a lot of value added from a guy with such a low strike out rate. That will depend a lot on what the scouts see. Scouting Stewart by stat line isn't very encouraging. It will probably need to be someone more significant. Another target might be Chris Archer. He also has a solid three years. They are close to the same age. Archer's season this year looks like a drop in performance but his xFIP remains among the best of starters. This is the guy I would target. It would take more than Dozier. The Rays would find a place for Dozier in the field and have always been very flexible positionally. If not the Rays than perhaps a three team deal where the Dodgers get Dozier and the Twins Archer. The Dodgers send one of the young prospect pitchers like Deleon and the Twins send a significant prospect (It will take more than ABW) to the Rays.

Wouldn't Garver's success to this point suggest the Twins have handled him well? His bat has remained solid as he moved up the ladder and his defense is reports to be much improved. Mishandling might be expecting him to be a major contributor at the major league level from opening day next year. They can hope that he will arrive with little time in AAA, but need to plan otherwise. Planning for him to arrive in the summer with a larger major league role in 2018 would be more reasonable.

If reports are true that his defense is much improved to go with his bat that remains solid, wouldn't that suggest they have handled him well? They might mishandle him by bringing him up before he has established his bat and glove in AAA over a long stretch. They shouldn't count on him for the start of 2017, but can hope he will be a contributor by midseason. They can go ahead and give him some time in September but they must be cautious to read anything into the results.

I can join those concerned about lack of playing time at SS in AAA. I can't join those that are concerned about the option use. I think a poorer use of options is bouncing back and forth from minors to majors without long stays at either spot. Optional assignments allow a player to develop in the minors though they are on the 40 man roster. The Twins have utilized that development time for Polanco and he has arrived displaying a good sense of the strike zone. Is it possible that his path to the majors with significant time in AA and AAA has helped him be ready to take on major league pitching? The Twins did waste an option year with their handing of him in the DSL/GCL. It would have been better that he had the fourth year. They do appear to have done a good job utilizing his option years to give him the development time he needed with the bat. I am perplexed why he didn't get that development time at SS with his glove this year.

I don't think looking at slash stats in partial seasons would point to a trend in any meaningful way. Looking at a three year stretch, it seems reasonable to project an OBP around .300 and SLG around .400. That would make him a pretty useful utility player that could fill in for longer stretches when an injury occurs. Giving Polanco a long look at SS with the security of Escobar on the roster would be a reasonable direction for next year.

Many good pitchers had high walk rates in the minors. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/

Gonsalves is in a similar spot as Berrios in 2014 splitting the season between A and AA. It still may a lengthy path towards major league success.

Antony's explanation that they needed to bring up pitchers who were ready to give innings right away makes some sense. Rochester was also in need of arms which may have motivated the way they moved Albers so he could return quickly. In hindsight maybe it wasn't all necessary, but it really helped to get that start from Duffey.

Players can take a significant step up in performance as they approach their prime. It could happen to Rosario as he improves pitch recognition. He is worth the investment of playing time.

I don't really care why they moved May to the pen. Whatever the reason, they should have move him back to the rotation for this year. His back trouble and inability to get loose in a relief role was known at the end of the 2015 season.

Why wouldn't they bring him to camp next year? He is under team control. His on base skill has value. He is entering his prime. He is absolutely worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter and an opportunity to retain his role next spring.

I am not aware of anything substantive related to interest in Suzuki. I don't think the Twins should be interested in Suzuki over two years. I do think that he will go to free agency looking for that deal. His agent should have a better read on interest beyond the chatter though.

Both his framing and pitch blocking ability rank high at BP. He may not hit as well as Suzuki next year but might be able to make up for it if he can get more called strikes and reduce wild pitches.

Suzuki will be looking for a multiyear deal. The supply this year is limited. Ramos and Wieters are better options if they make it to market. Hundley, Castro and Suzuki are the only others teams might consider starting. Castro has the framing numbers and younger. He might be more valued than Suzuki. Suzuki is next and could get a couple of year from a desperate team. The Twins may need to try to trade again this winter. Maybe they can offer up something better than Hicks.

Let's look forward. Tendering Plouffe will give him a contract that is not tradeable. Do they tender him? If not, do they let him go without compensation if claimed this August?