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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    From 2013-2016 Tillman was very valuable. He averaged 32 starts a year with a solid 4 year ERA in an AL hitter’s park. I would imagine if he hit free agency a year ago he would be seeking 20 million a year for 4-5 years. Given his age, he would have ranked above Lynn and Cobb. One shoulder injury later and he is looking for a make good one year deal. Someone will give him a shot. I hope it works out for him. His poorly timed injury cost him tens of millions. From the Twins perspective an incentive laden one year deal would make sense whether or not the sign Darvish. If I were his agent I would advise he go to a team like the Padres, White Sox or Royals who might be more patient early in the season. They would then hope for a good first half to flip him at the deadline.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t think league average ages 25-28 projects to league average ages 30-32.
  3. jorgenswest
    ZiPS seems to get more notice but hasn’t done as well as Steamer or Marcel recently. Here is a comparison of 2016. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded I haven’t seen the 2017, but ZiPS did not do as well as Steamer or Marcel in 2015 or 2016. Looking at the summary, ZiPS may have been less reliable on the pitching side. I would guess teams have far better systems given their access to more detailed data. I sure hope the Twins project well in their search for a free agent starter.
  4. jorgenswest
    I still have hopes for Duffey as a starter. I would send him to AAA to begin the season in the rotation and sign a guy like Belisle to take his spot in the pen. I think I would start May in AAA also until he is ready. Teams generally need 7 starters in the first two months. Duffey and May might fit that need well allowing Gonsalves, Romero and Littell a half season of AAA experience. Jorge, Stewart or Ens can move into the AAA rotation as needed. The Twins also need someone with options they can send out to bring up a fresh arm when the bullpen gets spent. They can’t do that with Kinley without a phantom injury. A rule 5 player can really make difficult in season roster moves and drive sooner the need for 13 pitchers. Busenitz might be in that shuttle role pulling up Moya, Curtiss or Chargois.
  5. jorgenswest
    The Twins are getting fantastic value out of Escobar. He was such a great return for a few months of Liriano. I wouldn’t offer a significant extension though. I would seek the next player to fill that role. It could be Adrianza.
  6. jorgenswest
    Interesting take on Darvish and the Twins at Beyond the Box Score https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/1/3/16843352/twins-offseason-free-agency-signings-hot-stove-rumors-yu-darvish-lorenzo-cain-playoffs-wild-card You might note that the author also blogs regularly at Let’s Go Tribe.
  7. jorgenswest
    Jamie-The walk and strike out rates as well as the O-Swing likely indicate growth in Rosario’s skill level. I appreciated that you stayed with numbers where the sample likely shows a change. Mike- I worry about defensive metrics also. However, they have the stability of slash stats at a season level and can vary significantly from one season to the next. It is just as likely the change in defensive metric is random variation due to sample as regression. Watching him, I am left with the impression that he makes the mistakes of throwing to the wrong base sometimes trying to do too much than he can do and sometimes it seems to be lack of focus. I don’t have data to back it up though. There must be some detailed Statcast data that can better answer that question.
  8. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Encouraging article. I would bet on Kepler will take a step forward. His BABIP will be better. He will improve against lefties though increased opportunities will be a drag on his overall numbers. I think we will see more power against right handed pitching.
  9. jorgenswest
    I look forward to when the Twins don’t have a spot for a Lynn. They can’t win without developing their own pitching and making significant commitments to 60% of a rotation in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes dudnt get them closer. How many good years out of the 14 will they get from those three. So far they have 3 of 11 good seasons and a lot of bad ones.
  10. jorgenswest
    There are 15 catchers in the hall of fame. Mauer is above the median of that group.
  11. jorgenswest
    It isn’t just the 2B piece. Players that have the “old player skills” of power, strikeouts and walks tend to decline earlier. In Kinsler’s 12 season he has exceeded 100 strikeouts just once. Everyone of Dozier’s full seasons have more strikeouts that any of Kinsler’s seasons. Kinsler had much more space to decline from his 12% K rate. Dozier starts at 20%.
  12. jorgenswest
    If that were the standard few catchers would make it. Johnny Bench hits only two on the five predictors and he is the top ranked catcher. Mauer ranks as the number 7 catcher.
  13. jorgenswest
    By BR similarity, Dan Uggla is not only the best comp for Dozier at age 30 but also by career through age 30. https://www.sbnation.com/2011/6/22/2235737/braves-dan-uggla-news-2011-season-31-year-old-second-basemen
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Dozier will age well. I would pass on any significant extension. At some point before the end of his next contract he will be a league average hitter playing 1B. Let some other team pay for his decline.
  15. jorgenswest
    We disagree. Next year’s work will be made much easier if passing means that they find someone from within that is cost controlled and approaching league average. All of a sudden instead of committing 16-20 million a year to a pitcher declining from league average, they have a very inexpensive pitcher on the other end of the career projection and much more money in the budget to spend on that pitcher next winter. Wouldn’t that make it easier? If they believe in the young group that has just entered AAA, it might be a smart risk to bank on one of them stepping forward rather than give a 4 year contract to a second or third tier free agent. The long term success of the Twins relies on them developing and acquiring cost controlled starting pitching.
  16. jorgenswest
    Not nearly as likely. Look at recent large contracts for pitchers in Cueto, Samardzija, Sanchez and Zimmerman. All had very significant drop offs in year 2 of the contract. If 2019 is the target to truly contend rather than be competitive then it is far better to sign that pitcher next off season. In a blog 3 years ago when we could still use tables I listed several signings and how they aged through their 4 year contracts. Year 1 was so much better overall than years 2, 3 and 4.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Rays will get a lot of interest in Archer. Another team will offer a more valuable player than Sano to headline that deal.
  18. jorgenswest
    Samardzija had 3/60 left on his deal with no buy out of the last year. Cueto has 5/110 left on his deal though it could be 4/93 if they buy out the last year. This does point out how crippling it can be to sign decline phase starters to long contracts. The Tigers are stuck with the contracts of Sanchez and Zimmerman. It would be hard to argue that either Lynn or Cobb have more upside than any of these 4 at the time they signed their deals for 80 million or more. Lynn and Cobb just don’t have a lot of space to decline. Darvish can decline and still be useful but the cost is enormous. The only road to long term success is to develop enough cost controlled pitching from within the system so that you don’t need to fill your rotation with free agants like Santana, Nolasco and Hughes or worse. That is a long road made longer as our previous front office created a huge void.
  19. jorgenswest
    I hope we see the jump. If not, he still is a reliable back end reliever with options to move back and forth from AAA as needed.
  20. jorgenswest
    This proposal has been published a few places (recently SI). East: Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Miami, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington North: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, Montreal, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Midwest: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Colorado, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas West: Anaheim, Arizona, Los Angeles, Oakland, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle I hate it for the Twins. They need to be in the Midwest. Yours is much better.
  21. jorgenswest
    They really need Sano at 3B next year. Looking and planning beyond next year isn’t helpful. There are too many variables in the rest of the infield. How will Polanco and Gordon continue to develop? Is either a SS long term? How will the resolve the expiring contracts of Dozier, Mauer and Escobar?
  22. jorgenswest
    2013-2014 is a long time ago to try to project a pitcher’s 2018-2021. I wonder how much weight the Twins should give those seasons. It isn’t about fairness to Cobb. His significant injury shouldn’t be a positive in projecting forward. You really only have his 2017 that is useful. As for Lynn, entering 2017 his FIP and ERA were essentially identical over his career previous to the injury. His xFIP was greater than his ERA but not significantly greater. It was 2017 data that caused the imbalance. Since it was 2017, an organization has to at least wonder whether his skill level post injury is closer to his ERA or peripherals. Teams going beyond 4/50 are really gambling that ERA is the better projector for the future. That isn’t usually the case.
  23. jorgenswest
    From 2015-2017 Lance Lynn has an xFIP of 4.34 and Alex Cobb has an xFIP of 4.26. Kyle Gibson has an xFIP of 4.24 from 2015-2017. Proceed with caution particularly on Lance Lynn who throws mostly fastballs. He can’t afford any decline in velocity as he ages through this contract.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think he would boot both Grossman and Vargas off the roster. Vargas is still around because he had an option. Without that option, he would have been removed as soon as they needed the 13th pitcher. This year they might start with a bench plus DH of Garver, Escobar, Adrianza, Napoli and Grossman (or Vargas). Who gets DFA’d when a 13th pitcher is needed? They really need one player with options who can easily be moved to AAA when pitching is needed. The two best candidates are Granite and Garver. If it is Garver, they would be counting on his bat helping against lefties playing a similar role as envisioned for Napoli. Resigning Gimenez would be part of this plan. If it is Granite, a Napoli signing would be at the cost of Grossman and Vargas.
  25. jorgenswest
    Awesome article. Thanks. Duke is certainly worth the small contract and left handed relief depth was needed. You left me more encouraged that Duke has something to contribute.
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