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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Seth can probably chime in on whether my perception seems accurate. In tracking back on a few players who have moved up in season, there appears to be a migration upwards coinciding with the A ball all star games. The MWL and FSL host their all star games on the June 15-17 weekend. I would expect that some of the better performing high end prospects will be moved up around that time frame this year. It also coincides with EST ending and draft signings filling some slots in A-Ball.
  2. jorgenswest
    Wade on base 4 times and another good game from Gordon. We will see several teams start moving guys up as extended spring training ends and some of those players fill low A pushing other guys up through the system. The June draft will also fill the system with a few players that need a spot in A ball. I expect both to move in the first half of June.
  3. jorgenswest
    He had to be relieved. The high fastball he missed that allowed the runner to advance from 2nd to 3rd and leading to the fielders choice run from 3rd and the the ball he missed later leading to the third run kept the Angels in the game led to 2 runs. Those are plays most major league catchers makes. Yesterday he didn’t need to make either but making one of them would have prevented extra innings.
  4. jorgenswest
    What does that tell us about the second half? How much should it be a significant factor in the playing time decision?
  5. jorgenswest
    The bullpen was rested after some good starts. Tomorrow is an off day. The Twins had a comfortable lead. Odorizzi could have gone another inning but it seems like a good move by Molitor. There was little to gain having him go through the lineup the third time and push his pitch count over 100. A week ago when the bullpen was gassed in the middle of a long stretch of games without a day off it would have made sense to keep him in another inning.
  6. jorgenswest
    I agree. It is critical midmarket teams make good decisions. Thus far the Twins have 3 good seasons to show for the 13 they purchased in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes. That is not a winning recipe. Midmarket teams can’t easily dump a Nolasco or Hughes contract. Every time we advocate for that winter signing we have to know that it comes with the risk that we will likely be buying some bad years that will be hard to watch.
  7. jorgenswest
    Maybe Wade is working on his swing to get more power. If that is the case, they really need to give him the time to develop that stroke. With moderate power, he might project similar to Matt Lawton instead of Robbie Grossman.
  8. jorgenswest
    I would prefer another bat over the extra mop up reliever. Hopefully one of them is removed when Buxton returns
  9. jorgenswest
    Lots of stuff above. LaMarre is the only true centerfielder of the group. Grossman is the best hitter (today) of the group. Could that why be the front office has chosen these two? As for sample, I didn’t use rate stats for that reason and used a count but the ISO are so similar I could have done the count across two years. When using ISO I used his 2017 numbers. Yes 8 singles would turn into doubles otherwise the batting average would change. In this case it was about increasing in power to increase SLG without increasing AVG. To stay focused on the big picture though... A minor league corner OF profile of very good OBP and low ISO does not translate well to the majors.
  10. jorgenswest
    This was a steamer projection. My understanding of steamer is that it uses a system of weighted averages and not component comps of minor leaguers. I don’t see a lot of difference either but 8 total bases would be an increase from 22 to 30 doubles. Wade has 3 extra base hits in 91 PAs this year. I don’t see how that is going to work well as a starting major league player on a corner. In AA, the first thing I look at as a hitter is age. The second is ISO. Walks are way down on the list for a few reasons. 1) Absent of power walks don’t translate well to the major leagues. 2) In order to get to that walk, the batter often would have seen a pitch or two that they could have barreled up in that at bat but didn’t. With all of his walks, Wade has seen a lot of pitches with few extra base hits as a result.
  11. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the link. It is the 1 PA steamer projection that they are comparing. I hope that steamer and other minor league projections based only on data can not be found in the Twins front office. It would be better to find comps of guys the same age with an ISO near 100 at 23 in AA but good OBP. How many of those guys make it? How long does it take them? Grossman is kind of close but better. He was 22 in AA with an ISO of 144 and lots of walks. ISO is a better indicator of future success because those walks off of minor league pitchers drop significantly against major league pitchers particularly if a player has little power.
  12. jorgenswest
    I see a steamer 1 plate appearance projection. Is that the one you are referring to?
  13. jorgenswest
    . Reminds of a guy the Twins have who started as a CF in the minors but moved to a corner while producing low ISOs and lots of walks. In his prime with luck we might expect a Robbie Grossman. Wade’s defense is better than Grossman at 28 but no reasonable projection would expect a contribution from his bat. Walks with low ISO doesn’t translate well to the majors.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t think anyone really expected Garver to be more than a below average defensive catcher this year. He is going to have bad games. He certainly will be exposed by a pitcher that isn’t close to hitting the target.
  15. jorgenswest
    Rotating through the end of the bullpen with options and AAAA pitchers is reasonably typical practice for competeting teams. The Yankees certainly lengthen their bullpen with this practice. It fixes a short term need while doing little for the long term. Where is the Twins focus? Should it shift towards the long term? The middling short term signings kind of make it appear that they want to focus on both. They aren’t doing it both well thus far this season.
  16. jorgenswest
    Is there data on how often Twin pitchers are throwing first pitch fastballs? The Reds were jumping all over those fastballs. I am not sure Hughes has any useful pitch but he was getting killed on early fastballs. Duffey’s rate of throwing fastballs is way up in his short stint this year at the expense of his curve ball. Maybe he needs to reverse and throw his off speed and breaking stuff first. Neither of these pitchers should be consistently throwing fastballs early in the count. On the other hand, Hildenberger’s most successful pitch last year was his fastball. Why is his fastball usage way down this year?
  17. jorgenswest
    I am sending out a reliever. If forced to pick I have to go with the younger player who has the longer track record. The older guy has options.
  18. jorgenswest
    I was wondering what the thoughts were about the Hughes extension at the time of the signing. I think this is the most critical comment.
  19. jorgenswest
    If we are going to judge by numbers, we can start using slash stats at around a full season of plate appearances. We can look at strike out rates, walk rates and ISO at around a quarter season of regular play. Are you asking for to get an opportunity to the point where the sample is meaningful?
  20. jorgenswest
    According to JAWs, Joe is the 7th ranked catcher and Ernie is the 7th ranked SS.
  21. jorgenswest
    I I think they will treat him like Ernie Banks who is in as a SS though he only had 45% of his PA as a SS and more as a 1B. He was a great SS through age 30 winning both his MVPs. 80% of his WAR came through age 30. Banks was a HOF SS and mostly a below average 1B the second half of his career. I have no doubt that Joe Mauer will be in the HOF.
  22. jorgenswest
    Are you arguing this is how you expect HOF voters to look at his career or is this how you personally look at his career? I have to believe most voters will see him as a catcher for those 10 years and understand the significance. There will always be critics but a solid majority will get him elected to the HOF.
  23. jorgenswest
    Joe Mauer was a catcher through 2013. In every one of those years he had the wear and tear of catching. It is hard to imagine that he is close to matching his plate appearance in seasons since. It can’t even be close. It would not make sense to split out any DH/PH/1B at bats from his seasons as a catcher but maybe that was what was done. He was still catching a lot of games in those years which would be tough on the body,
  24. jorgenswest
    All the credit does to Dozier. He would have made it with someone. He worked himself into a player way beyond any expectations. It is so rare for an 8th round pick to have a significant career. At his pick #252, he has more WAR than all of the 52 other pick #252s combined.
  25. jorgenswest
    He has some shaky defense behind him in Sano and Adrianza that resulted in an elevated pitch count and stressful innings. The Gibson of old might have imploded and left the game in a lot worse shape than down 2-0.
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