jorgenswest

The Twins have a better chance to win today with a rested May, Romo and Rogers and I would argue a better chance of winning one of two in New York. Rocco needs to manage for the series and not the moment.

Every game is going to be a bullpen game in this series. The Yankees bats are too good and too disciplined. Add in below to well below average defenders at every position around the infield and pitch counts exceed 20 per inning.

Would we roster Arraez if it looks like he is ready for game 3? I would if I were confident in the health of Gonzalez. The challenge is having so many other position players with questionable health in Kepler, Gonzalez, Cron and Adrianza. How many roster spots can be devoted to those question marks?

Four and 50 should do it. Power at 1B/DH has been pretty inexpensive the last few years. That trend will continue with the explosion of home runs this year. To really get paid players are going to need to bring something else to the table. It could be positional flexibility or defense or speed or leadership or even a record of good health. What else will Sano offer to get that elite contract?

I think it could be argued that Fernando Romero’s first 5 starts with an ERA below 2 and 29 Ks in 28 2/3 innings were even more encouraging in that moment. We love this moment of Dobnak’s first 28 1/3 major league innings but I am not sure I would bet on Dobnak having a better career than Romero.

The Twins should be guaranteeing any money to a 30s reliever coming off shoulder surgery.

I should have looked at that and now that I did I was surprised by the data. Smeltzer has faced right handed batters in over 75% of the plate appearances against him. That is much higher than the team split of 59% right handed batters. I guess it isn't that surprising since most of the plate appearances against him have come in starts where the other team stacked the line up with right handed batters. I was surprised that he has been much more effective against right handed batters this year who have posted a .721 OPS against him. Lefties have hit him much harder at an .869 OPS.

I think Littell is a lock. He has been used against more difficult batters and has been better than the league against those opposing batters.

I explored some more with BP's statistics. This time I looked at the quality of batters each pitcher has faced. The pitcher who has faced the highest quality of opposing batter is Devin Smeltzer. I found it interesting that opposing batters have fared worse by OPS against Smeltzer(.756) than the rest of the pitchers they have faced (.780). Tyler Duffey has dominated this year. He hasn't faced near the quality of batter (.731) but with a .582 OPS against he has the biggest differential on the team. I don't know what to make of slash stat data at this sample. The opposing batter data set would be huge but the data set for the individual player maybe small. While I am very certain that Smeltzer overall has faced a more difficult set of hitters than Duffey I don't know what to make of their individual opposing OPS number. In any case I find it encouraging to be on the positive side. Of the pitchers that could be eligible for post season there are 11 who have a better OPS against than the opposing pitchers of their batter set. This set is order from biggest positive differential to least. Tyler Duffey Trevor May Sergio Romo Taylor Rogers Jake Odorizzi Randy Dobnak Ryne Harper Jose Berrios Zack Littell Devin Smeltzer Brusdar Graterol Harper has performed much worse recently. I don't think I would have him on my playoff roster. The other 10 would be on my roster. The remainder needs to come from pitchers who have performed worse by OPS than the other pitchers that have faced the same batters. Stashak, Perez and Gibson are close to even but Perez and Gibson have not performed well recently either. The only other pitcher in consideration is Thorpe who has been hit hard by opposing batters. I guess I would go with Perez and Stashak but treat Perez as more of an opener with a really short leash second time through the line up. Two other Twin pitchers posted a positive this season. Mike Morin and Michael Pineda. Pineda really let us down.

While we don’t have enough information the Twins have plenty of information. The major league ball spins the same as the AAA ball. They have all kinds of data about which pitches will be effective against the Astros or Yankees. They have all kinds of data on how well the pitcher has executed the pitches they were supposed to throw. They probably did not know the whether the IL stay may have helped Gibson recover. We know now. He hasn’t recovered. As for the plan I would be surprised if games 2 and 4 were not bullpen games. We have seen plenty in preparation this month including three in huge games. Dobnak is truly an amazing story. Few players from his draft class of 2017 have arrived in the majors. Keston Hiura is the only one that stands out in my mind as making a better first major league impression than Dobnak. Dobnak wasn’t even drafted. I am not sure if anyone in his college has ever played in the minors. If he adds playoff success somebody needs to write a book and make a movie.

The Astudillo off shoot of this discussion has led me to look into something I have been wondering about since the Red Sox series. Thanks to BP I looked into some data about quality of opposing pitcher faced. No answers here but more to wonder about looking at the data. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-11646-baldelli-and-line-ups-which-twin-has-faced-the-best-pitching/

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series. Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming to the plate and in comes Matt Barnes. It is time to pinch hit with a left handed batter or so I thought. They have Polanco and Wade on the bench. They also have Astudillo. Astudillo? Why Astudillo? Kepler is up next. Let's get someone on base. Polanco or Wade must be a better choice. I was certain. Astudillo slaps a single to right field for the Twins second and last hit of the game. The Twins hold on to win 2-1. Lucky decision on Baldelli's part I muttered. The moment stuck with me though. I wondered... "When does Baldelli choose to use Astudillo?" With the help of Baseball Prospectus I looked to the quality of opposing pitcher for each Twin hitter with over 100 PAs. We have heard that the line ups are well thought out and planned. Maybe some hitters have faced a more difficult set of pitchers by design. Not surprisingly the typical pitcher faced profile for a Twin hitter is Polanco. He plays the most. The opposing pitchers he has faced have allowed a .770 OPS resulting in a 105 oppRPA+. More than half of the Twin hitters bunch in the interquartile range of 104-106. Only one Twin batter has faced better than league average opposing pitching this year with a 99 oppRPA+. Willians Astudillo. Astudillo's 746 oppOPS is two standard deviations away from the typical opposing pitcher faced. I don't think this happens by accident or randomly. Baldelli must either be choosing to play Astudillo against more difficult pitching or at least choosing to rest players against a more difficult pitcher. If you are still reading and curious the Twin closest to Astudillo is Arraez at .751 and the only other Twin more than a standard deviation away in this direction. There are two Twins on the opposite end though not near as far from center as Astudillo. Marwin Gonzalez (.779) and Byron Buxton (.781) have seen the pitchers who have given up the highest OPS to the hitters they have faced. Does this or should this give us a different impression on Astudillo's performance at the plate this year?

It is an honest open minded “wonder” about Astudillo. I certainly questioned Rocco’s decision to pinch hit him with runners on base and Barnes coming in late in the game. They could have gone with lefties Polanco or Wade or stuck with Schoop. In that moment they needed a ball in play to bring in a runner in scoring position against a pitcher who really limits balls in play.

I think there are match ups where Astudillo’s skill set works. His contact skill might give him a better chance against an ace or a bullpen arm that gets lots of swing and miss. We saw that in a recent successful pinch hit opportunity against Boston. Barnes has around a 38% strike out rate. That doesn’t matter much to Astudillo who puts the ball in play most of the time. That at bat made me wonder if Astudillo is a player you want against a better pitcher since he probably doesn’t drop off as much against an ace. He probably doesn’t feast on the below average to poor pitchers either where you might want a batter with patience and harder contact. There may be match ups in the playoffs where his contact skill is the best fit against an elite pitcher.

They may carry two starters and 10 relievers into the playoffs with bullpen games 2 and 4. Graterol is one of my 10 or even 9 if they keep a third starter. Even with a start from Perez they still need a lot of relievers behind him. I don’t think Gibson will be healthy enough to start.

My eye sees well below average lateral range that can not be compensated for by playing deeper without a strong arm. The DRS and UZR are real and more reliable than a batting average for future projection at this point. Neither is near enough sample. I think we can be confident in the on base skills that have been consistent throughout his professional career. I think we have also seen the quality of his approach at the plate. It shouldn’t be ignored that there also have been questions about his arm and range over his professional career. His bat will play. Like Sano at 3B he is OK at 2B for now but may need to move down on the defensive spectrum as his career progresses. I will leave with a thought for another article. Is the defensive spectrum changing due to the increase in fly balls and the data used to shift infielders. Will corner Of spots be more important defensively than 3B and 2B with this evolution? Maybe 2B is the perfect spot for Arraez.

Every playoff game is a bullpen game. I would pitch Berrios game 1 and 5. I would pitch Odorozzi game 3. Games 2 and 4 depend on who looks healthy and is throwing well over the next two weeks.

My hope when they gave the leadership to Falvey (and I think it is long passed time to give he and Levine the respect of their own names) he would find talent in pitchers in other organizations that wasn’t being realized. Smeltzer, Littell and Odorizzi are all good additions at little cost. I am hopeful about Alcala, Duran and even Dobnak. Falvey is going to need to be at the top of his game as he builds a rotation for next year. I don’t think he will do it entirely of established free agents.

I think the better question is... What contract would you offer Pineda for 2020? I guess that does assume everyone would take him on a minimum minor league deal but maybe that isn’t true. My negotiation ceiling is at one year 8 million (effectively 6 million).

He should be ready after his suspension. I recall Santana being able to play in the minors prior to his suspension ending. I also think that they will need someone by that point in the season. Those aren't my concerns. My concern would be that he was masking PEDs and those PEDs helped his performance or kept him healthier. Given those concerns I wouldn't pay more than 8 million (essentially 6 million) for his services. Does he need to sign a contract to begin serving a suspension? I would guess so. If not he might be better off waiting and seeing who needs pitching at the quarter pole.

It might be out there but I haven’t seen the pitching match up for today. Clevinger is lights out in day games so I am saving most of my bullets for the evening. Go with Smeltzer game 1 and see if he makes it a game. He has faced greater odds than this game. I guess they could open with Romero. If it goes bad let Stewart take the lumps. The Indians and will likely have the benefit of a long start and a rested pen for game 2. The Twins need to win that game. I do wonder if it is better to pitch two innings in one if the games or pitch one and possibly be available for game 2.

His upside is average defender, average base runner and professional at bats against left handed pitchers.

It is hard to see any 2019 upside in Kirilloff. I do believe in his upside and look forward to his bat at 26 and hope that it arrives sooner. He needs to consistently hit in AA first. He didn’t.

My first thought with Buxton out and Pineda’s suspension opening up a roster spot was Kirilloff. I then went and looked and he really didn’t perform that well when returning from injury. He had a good end of season but minor league pitching is pretty thin at the end of the season. I think he is up if he dominated AA over the long stretch of the season. He didn’t. He wasn’t close to dominating. A .413 SLG for a power hitter isn’t encouraging. He probably should start at AA and dominate until June before heading to AAA next year. My initial thought to call up Kirilloff was based on hope of who he might be some day based on 2018. I think he has a good ceiling but I don’t think he is anywhere near that ceiling this year and there is no reason it would be different against major league pitching. I don’t see options. It is hard to plan for losing Buxton, Gonzalez and Kepler for a stretch. Add Rooker’s injury and Kirilloff’s set back due to injury and you get Wade and LaMarre.

Strawberry signed a free agent contract that off season at a base of 5 years and 20.5 million. Jack had a guarantee of 3 years and 7 million. It was less than the guarantee from the Tigers. He had the incentives to earn 11 million over 3 but that was never going to happen. If he pitched poorly he would get the 7 million. If he pitched well he had an option out so he could go get the going rate for a top starter. The week he signed with the Twins, Clemens signed for over 5 million across 4 years with the Red Sox. Morris got his 5 million when he predicted out and signed with the Jays, The Twins did take advantage of the end of the collusion era to get Morris on a make good one year contract while minimizing their risk. I don’t think the financial burden in that signing compares in any way to the burden of signing the top free agent this winter.