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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    At this late point hopefully they get a pitcher at a little less cost than originally expected. Some team might react and overpay but if the Twins get Lynn/Cobb for 3 years instead of 4 or 5 or Garcia/Tillman on a 1 year deal they get help this year and still can pursue that starter in trade. It is critical that a couple of prospects take a big step forward towards top 20 mlb so that the Twins have the currency to make that deal.
  2. jorgenswest
    The late market on starters is going to create the opportunity to get a good deal with someone. That might mean a one year deal for one of the above. It might mean getting Cobb or Lynn on a three year deal instead of 4.
  3. jorgenswest
    For the playoffs, I would love to have the 2013 Lynn or Cobb. That is the last either won a playoff game. That was 5 years and a significant injury ago. The Twins need to be projecting forward and not looking backward. Projecting forward through their mid thirties won’t be as hope filled as looking back at their primes.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think Lorenzo Cain is a better long term bet and would get better offers. He did get 80 million over 5 year at 16 million a year. I don’t see Dozier getting that kind of deal. He may get the year amount over a shorter term.
  5. jorgenswest
    A quick aside... K% has been shown to be a better indicator than K/9. Last year Santana and Nolasco had identical K/9. Santana K% 19.3 to Nolasco’s 18.2. That difference matters in performance.
  6. jorgenswest
    They could always commit millions and many years to Lynn or Cobb who have similar 2017 xFIPs and similar 2018 steamer projections.
  7. jorgenswest
    It does not factor in a batter’s speed as a skill. xwOBA is concerned only with what happens just after the ball leaves the bat, and what the hitter does once he leaves the box doesn’t change it all. Of course, a speedy batter is much more likely to turn a gapper into a double or a triple than a slow batter is. Any difference as a result of speed should not change. Another factor that might account for differences in xwOBA and wOBA is ballpark factors. xwOBA doesn’t care about the ballpark. Since the Twins are playing in Target Field any difference due to park should not change. The last of course is luck. This is what xwOBA hopes to measure. Which batters hit the ball better than their numbers indicate? They might expect that their numbers did not match their ability and can expect that they would this year. I also think a fourth factor might be a hitter’s spray chart. How easy is it to shift the defense in areas where the player consistently hits the ball hard? What does it mean for those Twins? Is Buxton difference mostly due to good luck or his baserunning skill? How about Mauer? How much is bad luck and how much is slow baserunning? How about Mauer vs. Rosario? Rosario’s line drives are spread from foul line to foul line. Most of Joe’s are left field to center field. Which player is easier to shift against? Wouldn’t that effect this number? It would be awesome to have a measure bad and good luck to help determine a player’s skill level? Baserunning is a skill. The ability to hit the ball to all fields is a skill. I don’t think this number factors those skills out.
  8. jorgenswest
    They have several with options. The crowd is only a problem if they don’t have pitchers with option flexibility. They won’t have 8. They will have depth. Kinley can’t be optioned. He is going to have to win a higher leverage spot so that the low leveraged can be optioned as needed.
  9. jorgenswest
    Sigh. We are already slamming the character of a player before he has put on a Twins uniform. Any man who has pitched successfully into their 40s has done so by being extremely dedicated to their craft continually learning and working hard. There are accounts from the DBacks and others that he has helped the younger pitchers on the team because that is how he was treated when he arrived. That points to a good teammate. It is the Twins management that negotiated this deal and made commitments to Rodney. If they told him he would be used as a closer that is on them. Let’s question the wisdom of the front office. Rodney did not force them into the commitment.
  10. jorgenswest
    Unless Kinley is more reliable than Pressly there is no way to justify the roster spot. He doesn’t help as the low leverage reliever. He can’t be optioned and that flexibility is valuable to a team that should be competitive.
  11. jorgenswest
    When all are healthy... Rodney, Reed, Duke, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly might be the first 6. Busenitz is a good fit for the seventh spot. He has options. Instead of going to 13 pitchers when the pen is exhausted they can send out Busenitz and call up Curtiss or maybe Chargois.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would guess that the order would have been out on Darvish sign Reed rather than we just signed Reed now we don’t have money for Darvish. The additions of Reed, Rodney and Duke add nicely to the bullpen at minimal commitment.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins committed 174 million to Nolasco, Santana and Hughes over 14 years. The return thus far has been 3 of 11 season of league average or better starting pitching for the 134 million they have spent thus far. A good season for a starting pitcher has cost them almost 45 million a season. The 40 million looks like a bargain.
  14. jorgenswest
    What recent comps are there for younger players signing away their arbitration and maybe a few free agency year away? The Altuve deal was 2013. Singleton 2014. Astros haven’t been able to make similar deals with Springer or Correa. I would think Buxton would need to blown away by a deal to sign. In any case, the Twins can afford to pay for play in arbitration. They can’t afford to commit significant money towards poor performance.
  15. jorgenswest
    From 2013-2016 Tillman was very valuable. He averaged 32 starts a year with a solid 4 year ERA in an AL hitter’s park. I would imagine if he hit free agency a year ago he would be seeking 20 million a year for 4-5 years. Given his age, he would have ranked above Lynn and Cobb. One shoulder injury later and he is looking for a make good one year deal. Someone will give him a shot. I hope it works out for him. His poorly timed injury cost him tens of millions. From the Twins perspective an incentive laden one year deal would make sense whether or not the sign Darvish. If I were his agent I would advise he go to a team like the Padres, White Sox or Royals who might be more patient early in the season. They would then hope for a good first half to flip him at the deadline.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think league average ages 25-28 projects to league average ages 30-32.
  17. jorgenswest
    ZiPS seems to get more notice but hasn’t done as well as Steamer or Marcel recently. Here is a comparison of 2016. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded I haven’t seen the 2017, but ZiPS did not do as well as Steamer or Marcel in 2015 or 2016. Looking at the summary, ZiPS may have been less reliable on the pitching side. I would guess teams have far better systems given their access to more detailed data. I sure hope the Twins project well in their search for a free agent starter.
  18. jorgenswest
    I still have hopes for Duffey as a starter. I would send him to AAA to begin the season in the rotation and sign a guy like Belisle to take his spot in the pen. I think I would start May in AAA also until he is ready. Teams generally need 7 starters in the first two months. Duffey and May might fit that need well allowing Gonsalves, Romero and Littell a half season of AAA experience. Jorge, Stewart or Ens can move into the AAA rotation as needed. The Twins also need someone with options they can send out to bring up a fresh arm when the bullpen gets spent. They can’t do that with Kinley without a phantom injury. A rule 5 player can really make difficult in season roster moves and drive sooner the need for 13 pitchers. Busenitz might be in that shuttle role pulling up Moya, Curtiss or Chargois.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins are getting fantastic value out of Escobar. He was such a great return for a few months of Liriano. I wouldn’t offer a significant extension though. I would seek the next player to fill that role. It could be Adrianza.
  20. jorgenswest
    Interesting take on Darvish and the Twins at Beyond the Box Score https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/1/3/16843352/twins-offseason-free-agency-signings-hot-stove-rumors-yu-darvish-lorenzo-cain-playoffs-wild-card You might note that the author also blogs regularly at Let’s Go Tribe.
  21. jorgenswest
    Jamie-The walk and strike out rates as well as the O-Swing likely indicate growth in Rosario’s skill level. I appreciated that you stayed with numbers where the sample likely shows a change. Mike- I worry about defensive metrics also. However, they have the stability of slash stats at a season level and can vary significantly from one season to the next. It is just as likely the change in defensive metric is random variation due to sample as regression. Watching him, I am left with the impression that he makes the mistakes of throwing to the wrong base sometimes trying to do too much than he can do and sometimes it seems to be lack of focus. I don’t have data to back it up though. There must be some detailed Statcast data that can better answer that question.
  22. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Encouraging article. I would bet on Kepler will take a step forward. His BABIP will be better. He will improve against lefties though increased opportunities will be a drag on his overall numbers. I think we will see more power against right handed pitching.
  23. jorgenswest
    I look forward to when the Twins don’t have a spot for a Lynn. They can’t win without developing their own pitching and making significant commitments to 60% of a rotation in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes dudnt get them closer. How many good years out of the 14 will they get from those three. So far they have 3 of 11 good seasons and a lot of bad ones.
  24. jorgenswest
    There are 15 catchers in the hall of fame. Mauer is above the median of that group.
  25. jorgenswest
    It isn’t just the 2B piece. Players that have the “old player skills” of power, strikeouts and walks tend to decline earlier. In Kinsler’s 12 season he has exceeded 100 strikeouts just once. Everyone of Dozier’s full seasons have more strikeouts that any of Kinsler’s seasons. Kinsler had much more space to decline from his 12% K rate. Dozier starts at 20%.
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