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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I agree. I don’t want to part with Lewis. However wouldn’t every teams option 1 look better? The Twins would never try to acquire that top tier player in trade.
  2. jorgenswest
    If Kyle Tucker is in play, Lewis isn’t going to be enough.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think the offer will help the Marlins force another team to take that step.
  4. jorgenswest
    If Lewis is off the table, I don’t think they need to make the call. Teams do trade prospects like Lewis. Someone will and the Twins will be left watching.
  5. jorgenswest
    There must also be some selection bias in there. Minor leaguers with very high rates are probably not spending a lot of time in the majors and get taken out of the group. Is Gordon’s low rate a reason to be encouraged?
  6. jorgenswest
    Maybe he never forced them to address their flaws knowing that with change comes struggle. With struggle more losses. Was it more important to him to win games or develop players? Those flaws didn’t get exposed until the majors. Could they have been addressed in the minors?
  7. jorgenswest
    Yes. In addition, he doesn’t need a league average BABIP with his peripherals. He just needs to get back towards his norm which is much better than .239. He would have an OPS around .800 when he gets back to his norm.
  8. jorgenswest
    Did Mientkiewicz prioritize wins over development? What would that mean for his players as they transition to the majors? Are they left with fundamentals/approach that worked in AA or A ball but not in the majors? Probably not. Sano came up with a pretty good approach. It doesn’t matter today anyway. Drastic measures were needed and keeping Sano and Buxton down for a long stay in the minors might be the best hope to right their careers. That takes time. Send them to instructional also. It might be best to see them again next spring.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am curious about the vast difference in infield fly ball percentage in Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade and wonder how much it matters projecting their bats as major league hitters. I was able to find a few articles on IFFB% but those authors leave wondering also. One claim is that players with a lower IFFB rate tend to post higher BABIPs. Another claim is that minor league IFFB rates are greater than major league rates. A wonder is whether this is selection bias and those with greater IFFB rates don’t tend to make it in the majors. Here is what I noticed... Nick Gordon had a 2.3% IFFB rate this year in AA and AAA. He consistently is among the lowest in his league. Lamonte Wade has posted among the greater rates of 34.6% in AA and 28.6% in AAA. For context, Todd Frazier had the greatest IFFB% in 2017 at 18.9% and Freddie Freeman was 0%. Joey Votto is always low and last year he was at 0.5%. And I wonder... What does this mean projecting forward? I don’t have answers but it is something I want to study and blog further. I would appreciate any thoughts.
  10. jorgenswest
    His AA strike out with the Twins this year was 31.7% (101 batters) vs his AA rate of 29.7% (175 batters) with the Yankees. I am not sure how to compare AA with AAA. His walk rate in AA was also greater compared to the Yankees. I am not very hopeful but I do think missing more bats is the key to his usefulness in the majors.
  11. jorgenswest
    I am puzzled by Garver. I thought the trade of Murphy was an indicator of the front office’s confidence in his defense. They could really use Murphy’s defense right now.
  12. jorgenswest
    Low walk rates for pitchers in the minors doesn’t translate well to the majors. It often is an indicator that the pitcher isn’t missing a lot of bats. Missing bats leads to longer counts and more walks. If the change in those measures is driven by more missed bats it is a positive step towards being useful in the majors.
  13. jorgenswest
    Set the bar high for a Gibson trade. Get a good return for Odorizzi or keep him. Same for Reed. Take any offer better than a comp pick for Escobar and approaching a comp pick for Dozier. Take the best offer for Rodney, Duke, Lynn, Morrison. DFA Grossman. Release Belisle. Fill those spots with young players either acquired in trade or in the system. Prioritize catcher. DFA Wilson upon acquisition.
  14. jorgenswest
    Mid market teams are going to need among the best front office and contend. Is Molitor among the best 10 managers in baseball? If not, they need to seek a better manager. Mediocre to average isn’t good enough for this market.
  15. jorgenswest
    If he is down there and working to make changes to his swing or approach then it isn’t going to go well immediately. He may need longer than a rehab stay.
  16. jorgenswest
    Attended my first Kernels game last night. It is a fantastic setting for baseball. Both young pitchers looked very promising. Hopefully Enlow is healthy and will have a solid second half.
  17. jorgenswest
    Kluber, Carrasco, Sale, Price and Porcello. There is no way the offense can do enough damage to beat this quintet of Cy Young winners and near winners. Is there?
  18. jorgenswest
    Tough for me to evaluate also but that doesn’t matter. It better be something Falvey does well and he can’t accept an average manager. They need better.
  19. jorgenswest
    I don't know. There is so much I don't see in his role. It is critical that Falvey and Levine have made an accurate assessment. The Twins need a top 10 manager. Average isn't good enough.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would join you with the bullpen being on management. However, I don’t think the data supports an option problem. Duffey, Slegers, Busenitz, Curtis, Moya, Littell and Magill have been optioned one way or the other. Additionally I think Rogers and Hildenberger still have options. I think the problem is lack of talent relative to contending teams. That might stem from... - Inability to recognize and utilize talent of minor leaguers - inability to develop that talent - poor assessment of the talents of veteran free agents - poor use of the talent at the major league level Certainly any expectation that Kinley and Hughes would contribute to an effective bullpen of a contending team was unreasonable.
  21. jorgenswest
    A significant part of his value as a batter last year was his 13.5% walk rate. Walks don’t translate well to the majors particularly when he hasn’t shown power yet. I still expect to see his power to emerge as he improve in pitch recognition. With the increase in power I think his walk rate will go up. A bat like Chris Iannetta’s is valuable at the catcher position as long as the defense is close to average.
  22. jorgenswest
    Absolutely correct. He was called up for the first time because he was on the 40 and an option had already been exercised. I might add that the Twins dud error in managing his play in the minors. Short season leagues do not have enough days to count as a full year towards needing to be put on the 40. In 2010 he only played 52 games starting in the Dominican Summer League and ending in the Gulf Coast League. Since the DSL calendar starts before the GCL calendar it resulted in a few extra days (2?) than the number required to be considered short season. Poor management with that season resulted in needing to put him on the 40 a year early.
  23. jorgenswest
    That is an easy move. If they don’t want Motter now when they have no other options on the 40, when would he help. Whoever comes up has Motter’s spot on the 40. It might be Motter.
  24. jorgenswest
    Is there a way to be humorous without targeting the player?
  25. jorgenswest
    He had 77 days at the start of the season. I think he has passed that threshold.
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