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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Winning percentage as manager Molitor - .450 Gardenhire - .507 Maybe a little
  2. jorgenswest
    Where might Arcia fit? It has to be as a RF or DH. The team with the least production in RF is the Phillies. They have DFA'd Lough and recently acquired Paredes. That might be a platoon fit but Paredes has shown reverse platoon splits as a right handed batter. Milwaukee has had limited production from RF with Domingo Santana is on the DL. It probably depends on his outlook. They wouldn't want to take at bats away from Santana to give to Arcia. They might claim Arcia and DFA him when Santana is healthy. The Yankees production in RF has been poor thanks to Aaron Hicks. That might be a platoon pair if Beltran wasn't in the way. It was suggested that the Royals and Rays might need a DH. Would the Royals see Arcia as an upgrade over Morales at DH or Orlando in RF? Probably not. The A's have a similar situation with Butler at DH. The Rays use DH by committee and have a young RF. The Braves production in RF has been poor. Would they cut ties with Markakis? I think there are two teams that are in the most need of production from DH or RF without having anyone like Markakis, Butler or Morales in the way. The Phillies and the Twins are the teams most in need of Arcia.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am interested to see how Arcia's DFA resolves. The Twins must have assessed that he will not be claimed. They had other options and a great need for players with an upside. I see two possible bright sides. -Arcia makes it to Rochester and hits well given consistent playing time. -Arcia is claimed by another club. He plays regularly and hits well. The eyes of the Twins owner are finally opened and the result is new management in the front office and on the field.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is there any position where Nunez can help a winning team? I can't imagine how teams watching his most recent game at 3B or last night's game at SS could possibly want him in their infield. It isn't just error in the fourth. The ground ball from Pujols should have been an out at first in the fifth. Should the Twins see if he can play RF while Sano is out?
  5. jorgenswest
    It will be reality if Molitor doesn't play him regularly. The Twins have few left handed power options in the organization. You would think he was at least worth two months of consistent play. Had they started the season with that plan, they could be much more confident cutting ties now.
  6. jorgenswest
    Is Kepler out of options? He and Polanco both used options 2014,2015 and 2016. A player can get a fourth option year if they 5 or fewer seasons of professional baseball. Seasons are 90 days or more so short seasons won't count. Kepler may qualify for a fourth option. Polanco is similar but had a combined season in the Dominican League (starting May 29) and GCL (ending August 28) in 2010 as a 16 year old. I think it will help the development of both to play in AAA this year. Give Arcia consistent playing time through at least July.
  7. jorgenswest
    Buxton and Sano should be set aside from the guys like Rosario, Arcia and Polanco that have made an a appearance on someone's top 100 list. You hope they can be moved quickly. Buxton was moved up two levels a year and hit AA in his second full season. Unfortunately he was injured after 3 plate appearances at the level and lost significant time. Sano hit AA at age 20 and then unfortunately lost his age 21 season to Tommy John. The Twins correctly moved them quickly to AA. Injuries and not the Twins management slowed or altered their career path. It is the other guys that really needed the significant time in AA/AAA. It is guys that you hope make a significant contribution through their prime 5 seasons from 26-30. It is guys like Rosario, Polanco, Arcia, Santana, Kepler and Hicks that might be better in their primes if they are given that chance to develop in the upper minors. Utilize their options to get them significant time at AAA. Expect struggle when they are 24-25 and are out of options. Play them through those struggles.
  8. jorgenswest
    Let's see where he is at 200 PAs. Once there look at strike out rate, walk rate and ISO as well as pitch level data. How often is he staying in the zone? What is his contact rate? Chase rate? Ignore slash stats. They are useful in full season samples.
  9. jorgenswest
    Yulieski Gourriel could make it more difficult to find a buyer for Plouffe or even Nunez as a 3B. There is no prospect cost attached to Gurriel. http://nypost.com/2016/06/13/cubas-next-impact-free-agent-is-slugger-with-possible-yankees-fit/
  10. jorgenswest
    I think anyone would. If that doesn't happen, we can knock TR for not selling high as if players ride this month to month roller coaster of radically changing value. Value is created over years and not partial seasons. Nunez has increased his value from the level of DFA in 2014. It is a long way from DFA to top 250 prospect. It only takes one desperate team though. We can hope.
  11. jorgenswest
    He has two position for which he has played 900 innings in his career. The other positions have samples not near enough to look at UZR. Of all third baseman his career USR/150 is only better than Ryan Braun. Braun played 3B in 2007 and the Brewers found him a new position. Of all shortstops, his UZR/150 is only better than Dee Gordon and Jonathan Villar. Gordon hasn't played SS since 2013. Villar persists until Arcia arrives. Poor defense leads to extended innings, shortened starts and stressed bullpens. Hallmarks of a losing team.
  12. jorgenswest
    He inability to field will make it so difficult to sell him. Two double play ball throws to Dozier today. One was bad but Dozier did a great job of staying in the bag and getting the ball. The other cost 2 runs. Even on the early fielding play to his right, his feet work put him in a poor position to throw and Mauer received the ball in foul territory. I have been thinking his only position is 3B. After today, I can't imagine any winning team would see him as a starting solution anywhere in the field. Utility fielders won't get much return.
  13. jorgenswest
    In a redraft wouldn't Bradley go in the top 10 if not better? There aren't 30 good players to have emerged from that draft. Wouldn't Trout, Donaldson and Syndegaard go in the top 3 or even number 1? By the time you get to the 20s the players in those redrafts wouldn't be very exciting. How does a redraft make sense if the only team withe the benefit of hindsight is the Twins?
  14. jorgenswest
    Awful. It would be a disaster defensively. Nunez can't play 2B. Perhaps swapped with Escobar it would move from distaster to significantly below average.
  15. jorgenswest
    Sell High... How long does it take to establish a high level? I don't think it can be done in a half season. GMs aren't dumb. Players don't ride a roller coaster of value. Suzuki's value didn't change significantly after a good first half in 2014. Nolasco's value is not going to change if he were to string a handful of good starts before the deadline. Establishing value takes years of play. Nunez is having a good year and has also put together a few good years. His OPS from ages 27-29 is .766. His OPS through age 26 was .692. It should be better in the prime but that is a little more increase than typical. A mid 700s OPS is probably around what teams should expect for the remainder of this year. Assuming a winning team values defense at SS, he probably fits best as a 3B. A mid 700s OPS at 3B would rank 18th among team OPS from 3B. That is a new high in value that he has established over the last three years. His previous level was DFA by Yankees and a return the same as the Twins were able to get for Butera. The Twins should listen to offers but there could be more upside in keeping him (if he really is an 800 OPS talent) than the upside in the return.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Twins have to go for upside. If they end up with the 15th best player in the round, it will be a disappointment. Go back 10 years. The player ranked 15th in WAR drafted in the first round (not including supplemental) of the 2006 draft is Hank Conger. An aberration? Maybe. In 2005 it is Chris Volstad. In 2007 it is Pete Kozma. The safe pick lands them a back up catcher, fringe starter or utility man off the bench. It is far better to go for a guy with upside that may never see the majors. If they end up with the 15th most productive player in the round, that player will have little impact on the future success of the Twins. FYI- the Twins drafted Matt Garza, Chris Parmelee and Ben Revere over those three years. All have a WAR rank in the round better than the spot they were drafted.
  17. jorgenswest
    It would be unwise to extend him based on two months or a half season. It would also be unwise for a team to trade for him valued at his half season performance.
  18. jorgenswest
    Nunez was DFA'd by the Yankees. Similar to JR Graham, they had 10 days to make a move and the Twins stepped in and acquired him. Even though he had an option left the Yankees did not only wanted to remove him from their 25 but also their 40. They did not feel he could play even a poor 2B and kept Dean Anna (as well as Solarte) in a utility role. His poor defense is real and for that reason he doesn't comp well with Zobrist. His bat both last year and this year makes him one of the top 30 shortstops or third basemen even with the bad glove. His ultimate role for a team might be starting 3B. He has enough bat and it isn't as demanding defensively as SS. Teams in need of a 3B must be considering making the Twins an offer.
  19. jorgenswest
    Is there reason to be concerned that his numbers in the first inning over the last two years are markedly worse than other innings? A starter does face the other teams best hitters in the first inning but it doesn't explain a 11.70 ERA in that inning this year or the 5.04 first inning last year.
  20. jorgenswest
    Teams are too smart to get swayed by hot and cold streaks. Suzuki had a great first half in 2014 but teams look at multiple years when they project the second half. He didn't increase his value to anyone beyond the Twins. Streaks are not going to change the reality that the Twins have little veteran value to deal. Dozier and Plouffe will have more value than Nunez. Winning teams value defensive skill and owning several gloves isn't the same as defensive versatility. I can't imagine any winning team would play him in the middle of the infield with any regularity. Jepsen will be a free agent. While he closes for the Twins, he had the value of a 7th inning guy last year with a year and a half of control. Now he is a 7th guy that is a rental. It will be hard to find a taker for Santana's contract. There will be little if any competition for his contract driving down any perceived value. For Suzuki, Nolasco and Hughes, it is probably place on waivers and hope for a claim. If someone makes the mistake of claiming as the Orioles did with Willingham, the Twins must let them go (as they should have with Willingham).
  21. jorgenswest
    I looked for instances when teams changed GMs in season. I did not see an example of a team hiring away a key member of another team's front office during the season. Most recently the Tigers fired Dombrowski last August but stayed in house to replace him with Avila.
  22. jorgenswest
    1) It was a mirage but probably around 4-6 wins. Perkins was so incredibly successful the first half. Other members of the pen, Boyer and Thompson, were very successful early. 2) Mauer's concussion radically shifted his aging curve. 3) Prospects require patience. The Twins have not had the patience to give many a half season at AAA before bringing them up. The path has been AA and then the majors and then return to AAA and bounce back and forth. Fans react to good or bad months when they have little meaning statistically. We might want to wait until age 26 before deciding if a prospect is overrated. It is fair to say Meyer was overrated. Guys like Arcia who made a top 100 list in only one season were really not rated that highly to begin with.
  23. jorgenswest
    Players will struggle when enter the majors. They can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. Players might need two full seasons of major league plate appearances to make adjustments and show consistency. It is hard to wait out those 1000 or more plate appearances. There is important development that happens at AAA. Pitch recognition at the forefront as there are older pitchers with more refined change ups and breaking balls. Players should be given the chance to find sustained (1/2 season) success against AAA pitching. With that success, they can be ready to struggle at the major league level. The Twins have brought up several players with little AAA experience. Many were sent back. They need to show a long stretch of sustained success before they return.
  24. jorgenswest
    Nunez mixes poor defense and base running mistakes with a productive bat. There may not be a place for him on a playoff team but this Twins team needs him.
  25. jorgenswest
    Kepler has 85 AAA plate appearances. There shouldn't be any discussion about blocking him before he has a considerable stretch dominating at that level. If he is dominating that level at the All Star break I will buy into the argument that Santana, Arcia, Plouffe or Rosario are blocking him. The Twins have had enough guys go from AA to the majors only to have to send them back. Giving Kepler 200-250 plate appearances in the AAA isn't going to hurt his development. It is the wise path.
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