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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don't think looking at slash stats in partial seasons would point to a trend in any meaningful way. Looking at a three year stretch, it seems reasonable to project an OBP around .300 and SLG around .400. That would make him a pretty useful utility player that could fill in for longer stretches when an injury occurs. Giving Polanco a long look at SS with the security of Escobar on the roster would be a reasonable direction for next year.
  2. jorgenswest
    Many good pitchers had high walk rates in the minors. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/
  3. jorgenswest
    Gonsalves is in a similar spot as Berrios in 2014 splitting the season between A and AA. It still may a lengthy path towards major league success.
  4. jorgenswest
    Antony's explanation that they needed to bring up pitchers who were ready to give innings right away makes some sense. Rochester was also in need of arms which may have motivated the way they moved Albers so he could return quickly. In hindsight maybe it wasn't all necessary, but it really helped to get that start from Duffey.
  5. jorgenswest
    Players can take a significant step up in performance as they approach their prime. It could happen to Rosario as he improves pitch recognition. He is worth the investment of playing time.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don't really care why they moved May to the pen. Whatever the reason, they should have move him back to the rotation for this year. His back trouble and inability to get loose in a relief role was known at the end of the 2015 season.
  7. jorgenswest
    Why wouldn't they bring him to camp next year? He is under team control. His on base skill has value. He is entering his prime. He is absolutely worthy of a 40 man roster spot this winter and an opportunity to retain his role next spring.
  8. jorgenswest
    I am not aware of anything substantive related to interest in Suzuki. I don't think the Twins should be interested in Suzuki over two years. I do think that he will go to free agency looking for that deal. His agent should have a better read on interest beyond the chatter though.
  9. jorgenswest
    Both his framing and pitch blocking ability rank high at BP. He may not hit as well as Suzuki next year but might be able to make up for it if he can get more called strikes and reduce wild pitches.
  10. jorgenswest
    Suzuki will be looking for a multiyear deal. The supply this year is limited. Ramos and Wieters are better options if they make it to market. Hundley, Castro and Suzuki are the only others teams might consider starting. Castro has the framing numbers and younger. He might be more valued than Suzuki. Suzuki is next and could get a couple of year from a desperate team. The Twins may need to try to trade again this winter. Maybe they can offer up something better than Hicks.
  11. jorgenswest
    Let's look forward. Tendering Plouffe will give him a contract that is not tradeable. Do they tender him? If not, do they let him go without compensation if claimed this August?
  12. jorgenswest
    Like this. Polanco in LF seems more plausible than Sano in RF. I would think he can at least get close to the Robbie Grossman level of defense. He helps because Rosario, Kepler, Buxton and Santana all hit better against right handed pitching over their major league at bats. It doesn't need to be a strict platoon but it would help if Polanco took LF against a left handed pitcher for one of the starters and sitting or shifting Rosario to one of the two other spots.
  13. jorgenswest
    Players without significant contracts will get blocked. The return on others will not shift the franchise. If a team claims Plouffe or Suzuki with the intention of blocking (they don't offer a player in return), should the Twins let them go? What would be the point of keeping Plouffe in that case? His arbitration award will make him even more difficult to trade this winter. Taking him to arbitration almost certainly means he is on the 25 next year. If they don't plan on taking him to arbitration, why keep him in September? Play Sano, Polanco and Vargas more often. They can also let Suzuki go and give the time to Centeno and Murphy. Suzuki may be able to get a multiyear contract this winter. I hope it is not from the Twins.
  14. jorgenswest
    Logjams are good. Right? They certainly are preferred over what we have at catcher. Vargas looks to be a major league player. Not sure about Park. He can play in minors until Vargas gets a long shot or someone wants him. In 2018 Vargas and Sano might be the DH/1B combo with Mauer declining to an A-Rod role. In 2019 both will be on their primes with power and walks in the middle of the batting order. We need one more year at 3B with Sano.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wonder if Vargas' solid walk rates give him a better chance of more success as he grows into his prime. I think he has a more promising future than Park or Plouffe.
  16. jorgenswest
    Whether they use it or not it does give an exemplar of what 9 million dollars buys. To win this trade the Twins need to get more value out of the 9 million and Busenitz than the Angels get from Meyer and Nolasco's 2017.
  17. jorgenswest
    That 9 million buys a pitcher the level of Pelfrey in free agency. It is hard to imagine they can spend it on someone who will have more trade value than Santiago at the deadline next year.
  18. jorgenswest
    Looking forward to a good start from Santiago and a sweep of Cleveland. I doubt this trade does much to shift the future of the Twins, but I do have more interest in today's game.
  19. jorgenswest
    Home runs stabilize at around 1250 plate appearances. Splits, each in a smaller sample, might not be very informative. I would think that Santiago would have given up a greater number of home runs at home had the park over the last three years been Target Field. I did look at the partial home run data for 2016 and see that Angel Stadium was giving up home runs at a much greater rate than the three year stretch from 2013-2015 when they were among the most difficult places to hit home runs in the AL. I don't think they made stadium changes And it is a small sample of the partial season. In any case, Santiago's difficulty with home runs at home this year coincides with his increase in ERA.
  20. jorgenswest
    Angel Stadium was the perfect park for an extreme fly ball lefty like Santiago. Target Field may not be very friendly. Angel Stadium is one of the more difficult places for right handed batters to hit home runs. Saniago still gave up more home runs than any other pitcher last year. Right handed batters see an increase in home runs in Target Field. This combination could prove difficult for Santiago and his future value.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think I agree with both of you above. Is it fair to say the deal has little long term value to the Twins? There should be a 1 win bump next year if they use the 9 million wisely (either taking Santiago to arbitration or spending it in free agency). Is it also fair to say that the Angels have the better odds at long term upside? With that upside comes the greater likelihood that they will get less from Nolasco than Santiago next year and Meyer will never be healthy.
  22. jorgenswest
    I wonder if my understanding of the money is correct. The Twins are paying Nolasco for the remainder of the year. After that he is owed 13 million. Of the 13 million the Twins are paying 4 million. That leaves 9 million which will be close to what they spend on Santiago if they take him to arbitration. I don't see a savings for 2017 but I do see an upgrade of about 1 win if they retain Santiago. They also have the opportunity to deal Santiago as a rental. They can also non-tender and spend the money elsewhere but that amount isn't buying much more than a win. Since the cash is neutral, is the difference between Santiago and Nolasco to the Twins in 2017 worth more than the future difference of Meyer and Busenitz to the Angels? Unless a team views itself as a solid contender for 2017, wouldn't they be better off gambling on the future?
  23. jorgenswest
    Meyer was added to the 40 man roster following the 2014 season. The Twins send options in 2015 and 2016. He should have an option remaining. For 2017, the Twins appear to be the winners. Hopefully the Twins will have studied how the change in home parks will impact Santiago's performance. He led the league in home runs given up last year in a park that suppresses right handed home runs. Target Field will not be as friendly. For 2018 and beyond, the Angels win the trade if Meyer is a major leaguer. The Twins only hope is being able to move Santiago. I would gave preferred they cut loose Nolasco and kept Meyer, but it isn't a bad gamble that Santiago will retain his value into next July.
  24. jorgenswest
    Santiago has performed significantly better than his FIP over his career. The opposite is true of Nolasco. It comes down to performance with runners on base. Nolasco's performance drops with runners on base over his career. Santiago has actually pitched much better over his career with runners on base. Is it luck? Maybe. They both have significant PAs against over their careers. Target Field may not be kind to Santiago though. He led the league in home runs given up last year. He moves from Angel Stadium which suppresses home runs from right handed batters to Target Field where right handed batters hit home runs above the league average. I used 2013-2015 as the sample for the parks but Angel Stadium has been a more difficult place for right handers to hit home runs than Target Field each year since Target Field's opening in 2010.
  25. jorgenswest
    A good trade. I honestly trust took the best offer they had for Abad. This is the kind of deal losing teams need to make.
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