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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Looking at Perez data over his career... His best and only positive pitch last year was his sinker. The change up had been a positive pitch in the past. It is hard to imagine decreasing the use f his most effective pitch will be helpful. He has been equally ineffective over his career regardless of time through the line up or pitch count. To me this suggests that he will not be helped by pairing with an opener or stacked with another starter. Over his career he has been much more effective against left handed batters. Maybe they see him as a second left handed arm in the bullpen. I hope the bullpen is the Twins plan for Perez.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t see how this helps but this is Falvey’s team and Falvey’s staff. They need to be buyers at the deadline this season or they need to clean out the leadership. I would have added to the top of the rotation and pushed everybody back a slot. I would have looked to the lack of starting pitching in 2020 and found a mid rotation or better starter with 2020 control.
  3. jorgenswest
    I am not certain they will or should have a dedicated closer.
  4. jorgenswest
    Such a contrast between the Angels approach to their bullpen and the Twins. They added Allen and Curtiss this week while not tendering Parker earlier. It is hard for me to see how the Twins come out ahead with these moves. I also realize looking at reliever stats has very little projection value. The Twins have much more data as well as scouts. It is critical they have made the right moves this winter. This is Falvey’s team. This is his coaching staff. My bar for his return next year is the Twins need to be buyers at the deadline. Short of that he and the other front office management must be replaced.
  5. jorgenswest
    My offseason blueprint. Sign Harper. Trade Buxton for Gray. I think their over under goes from 84 to 89. They add a starting pitcher 3 years and they desperately need the last two of those. They will have Harper under team control longer than they will have Buxton. The payroll takes a big hit but they are going to pay dearly for starting pitching after this year. We saw how well that went with the 14 years and 170 million committed to Santana, Nolasco and Hughes for a return f 3 good years. Gray will be in arbitration but the costs and risks will be much less. Harper and Gray will still be around as Kirilloff and Lewis are expected to arrive. This pair of moves elevates them to contender status now and when the next wave arrives. They will never be in a better position to take on a contract like Harper’s.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am in if they also sign Harper for RF moving Kepler to CF.
  7. jorgenswest
    The Angels opened up a spot on their 40 by not tendering Parker and then fill a spot with a younger reliever who became available when a team signed Parker. Is it a matter of a few million dollars or does it shed light on the Angels confidence in Parker sustaining his performance?
  8. jorgenswest
    The roster resource has Duffey with 1 option. If that is the case the Twins must not have used an option in 2015 or 2016.
  9. jorgenswest
    I thought that they had control of Cruz, Parker and Cron beyond this season. Maybe I am wrong and it is a two way option in the case if Cruz. If it is the Twins option it sure seems like it is a better deal to have an option on the second year. Isn’t control what matters? Is this a case of semantics or is it reality that those three are free to leave the Twins after 2019?
  10. jorgenswest
    I would have 5 solid relievers that I would count on to get to the end of games. The 5 now appear to be Rogers, May, Reed, Parker and Magill. Would anyone argue that is competitive? It is hard to be sure that any can be counted on. They need to put somebody in the front of that list and let the others fight it out or a roster spot. I want a 12 man staff to allow a fourth bench spot for a bat like Astudillo so the last two spots need options. Two of these guys make it with the others in Rochester waiting for the shuttle. Moya, Hildenberger, Duffey, Vazquez, De Jong and the AAA starters. If Jay or Reed look good during the season put them on the 40 and get them on the shuttle. They fight it out for the two spots. Romero can win one of the top 5 or be in Rochester and starting. Rogers has an option and can join this group but they are going to need to add two relievers to the top 5 before that happens.
  11. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. I was thinking tiers in terms of dollars committed. I wasn’t looking backward but rather that the dollars they received gave an indication of their value moving forward. They weren’t 100 million dollar guys or 50 million dollar guys or in terms of a single year they weren’t 25 million or 15 million dollar players. They signed contracts that almost any organization could take on. I should have described it that way.
  12. jorgenswest
    Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.
  13. jorgenswest
    Grienke’s 105 million and three years sounds like a foolish deal until you realize that... The Twins committed 114 million for 10 seasons of Hughes and Nolasco. The return was one good season. I would bet on two good seasons for the 105. Last year they committed 38 million in free agency on their starting rotation in Lynn, Santana and Hughes. They combined to perform below replacement level. I would bet on the 35 million to Grienke. Last year maybe spent 23 million on free agents Castro, Morrison and Reed. They also failed to reach replacement level. Turns out team friendly deals to third tier free agents doesn’t always pay off. If the DBacks are willing to include some good prospect capital to get a team to take on the full deal I think it needs strong consideration. It could be an opportunity to add a guy to the top of the rotation and improve the farm system. Count me in. I think I agree.
  14. jorgenswest
    Alvarez and Telus provide nice AAA depth. They need some depth a catcher so Astudillo can have a real shot at winning a bench spot. Alvarez has shown some swing and miss and worth a spot as a lefty in the AAA pen.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is still the off season. I think they will add at least one significant reliever. I would have passed on Cron and sought a left handed bat. I am not sure adding a left handed bat without options now helps. My Sano insurance would be Astudillo. In fact Astudillo would be my starting catcher until he proves otherwise but I don’t think the Twins will go that direction.
  16. jorgenswest
    Unfortunately neither is helpful in projecting the future performance of a reliever.
  17. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins are interested in extensions. I wonder if the players on the advice of their agents are not interested. Seems like there are fewer extensions where teams are buying years of free agency in the last few years.
  18. jorgenswest
    Maybe it was his first game
  19. jorgenswest
    I think I agree but I wouldn’t be very upset if they trade Kirilloff for Realmuto. They would be selling Kirilloff at his highest point thus far in his career and getting a huge upgrade at catcher. We could easily sitting in July 2020 with no solution at catcher while keeping a top prospect significantly struggling with plate discipline in the major leagues.
  20. jorgenswest
    Would you trade Kirilloff or Lewis for Realmuto? I think that would get it done.
  21. jorgenswest
    They have in house options that can offer a lot of flexibility in Adrianza, Cave and Astudillo. Cave has the outfield covered. Astudillo has catcher, 3B and is also depth at 1B with Sano moving over. The Twins have Adrianza and Torreyes with an option in the infield. Both have solid gloves. They can do better with the bat but I think the need is greater in the pen.
  22. jorgenswest
    He wouldn’t be my next to go but sign two more relievers and it might be time. The reasons I will think twice right now... 1) He has an option and can be the virtual 13th or 14th pitcher waiting in AAA to be shuttled back and forth. 2) His strike out and walk ratios remain solid and stable. Those peripherals lead to an xFIP similar to Parker and Hildenberger and much better than Magill. A reliever’s xFIP is a far better predictor for the future than ERA or FIP. 3) He has a good curve ball and I want to see how the new pitching staff can refine and utilize it. He needs a spot on the 40 but not the 25. I would remove Magill and Michael Reed who don’t have options remaining first. I think I would also remove Granite from the 40 before Duffey.
  23. jorgenswest
    They need 5 guys they can count on and two more at the back end with options. Is Parker one of those top 5? His steamer projection puts him around an ERA of 4 and just slightly better than Hildenberger and Duffey. I know the ERA and some splits look so much better but they are of little value in predicting future performance for a reliever. ERA needs a massive sample size and a reliever will never approach it in a full season. Ignore it for future performance. WPA has little correlation year to year so that is of little value also. I am not confident that Parker is a true upgrade or significantly different from back end guys like Duffey and Hildenberger who still have the flexibility of an option.
  24. jorgenswest
    I wondered about extensions. I don’t know if I have seen many across baseball this winter. I know that Kershaw and Escobar signed extensions but both could have become free agents this off season. Are there many examples of a player like Gibson signing an extension?
  25. jorgenswest
    My first reaction is that I wouldn’t want Astudillo batting directly after Buxton. Astudillo doesn’t need many pitches to get the ball in play making it difficult to steal second. On the other hand when Buxton is on base he puts pressure on the defense every time the ball is put in play which Astudillo dies frequently.
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