jorgenswest

Is it possible he is exactly where he needs to be? His offensive output should leave us encouraged for the future. His strike out numbers should point to the hard work in front of him before he is ready for the major leagues. He is succeeding in AA and he still has work to do at that level. I expect that he will continue that work in AAA in 2016 and contribute at the major league level in 2017 having improved his ability to judge the strike zone. Can I both believe in his production and realize is has some hard work in front of him?

There is no way a pitchers with a 4.36 xFIP brings back an ace or a stud. That is not being a proponent of trading him. Do the Twins buy high on Pelfrey as they did with Doumit and Suzuki? Do they sell high and take the best the market will offer? Do they let it ride and make a qualifying offer if his second half matches his first half?

The bright spot might be the outfield defense.

Thoughts at the time of the signing can be seen here and here The original article concluded Being opposed was a minority opinion. Those in favor saw the low cost contract and the strike out rate. Those concerned saw the context of a low leverage reliever in Petco Park coming to the AL. The market for good right handed relievers was set north of 5 million this winter. His contract alone should have been a huge red flag that other teams were looking beyond the Petco numbers and weren't impressed with what they saw.

Walker swings at 33.2% pitches out of the zone. Only Kepler has a greater rate among Chattanooga players. Of the out of zone pitches, he only makes contact on 45.2%. That is the lowest among the Lookouts. It is a worrisome combination. You either need to be able to lay off pitches out of the zone or do a better job of making contact with those pitches. Kepler for example swings at 33.8% of pitches out of the zone but makes contact with 72.6% of those. Sano is the other end, he has a 50.5% out of the zone contact rate while swing at 21.9% of pitches out of the zone. There have been several thoughts on Walker lately. I studied other players with high K + high ISO rates in AA and looked to see how often they found success at the major league level. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6625-adam-walker-looking-for-comps/

Logan Lombana is a great kid. Seen him play with or against my kids from little league through high school. Very good athlete. Was also one of the best high school soccer goalies in Northern California.

If Walker believes like some on this site that his strikeout rate doesn't matter, he will not make it. He has to judge the zone better. I think he can do it. His strke out rate over last three levels. A - 20.8% A+ - 28.2% AA - 35.5% He needs to work every day to stop that trend.It matters.

Extend and trade aren't the only two choices. They can also let it play out. If he finishes strong with better than league average ERA they can make him a qualifying offer. They can't trade him at the deadline if he continues strong and they are contending.

Correa's numbers were better int he Texas League and the PCL but Buxton's overall line would likely be also. There is upside in Buxton they won't find in any reasonable summer acquisition. His defense and speed raise his floor. If the Twins are going to find a player that might shift the record 2 or 3 wins the rest of the way, I think Buxton is the best bet. He would be taking at bats away from primarily Rosario, Hicks and Vargas. There is as much reason to be concerned about the performance of any of those three as there is Buxton.

You are correct about Springer. He has a different talent set. The comp is the strike outs and ISO in the minors and whether players with high rates in both were able to find success in the majors. It will be an encouraging sign if Walker's strike out rate drops to around 25%. He will then join several others who have found success in spite of a high minor league strike out rate.

You are right about the 40. Whatever the plan was entering the season, their record after 60 games has to alter that plan. They still would use Torii in RF once or twice a series and sit either Hicks or Rosario. Hughes and May with their fly ball tendencies would benefit from a Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield. Only the Royals can top that for defense.

Seems like a no brainer to me. The Twins might have been wise to wait on his service time clock had the season progressed as expected. Now that they are in the midst of a run, is there any player with the potential to have a greater impact? If they had the plan of a September call up, now is the time to change the plan. What is the risk? He will be taking at bats from among Vargas, Hicks and Rosario. They have RC+ of 85, 66 and 95 and with those the Twins have the best record in the AL. Even if Buxton performs in the midst of those number he adds defense and speed. Let's do it. Dump the 13th pitcher.

You have to be excited about Adam Brett Walker's performance in AA. He leads all AA players with an ISO of .312. This isn't new. He had the second best ISO in the Florida State League last year at .190. Where is all of the top prospect love? It is hard to get past his strike out rates. Not only does he lead all AA players in ISO but he also leads in strike out rate at 35.5%. Some look at the strike out rate and dismiss Walker as a prospect. Certainly major league pitchers would take better advantage of his poor strike zone judgment. I wondered in there were any other AA players among the league leaders in both strike out rate and ISO that became solid major league players. Below is a list of players who were among the top of their league in both AA categories since 2006. Brandon Wood Kody Kirkland Chip Cannon Wilkin Ramirez Greg Halman Brandon Waring Carlos Peguero Joe Benson Kyle Russell Derek Norris Tommy Mendonca Brahiam Maldonado Matt Fields Domingo Santana Michael Taylor Stephen Montoya Some multiple appearances on the list. I think Brandon Waring made it 4 times. Brandon Wood stuck out to me. He was a very highly ranked prospect. He had strike out rates of 28.5% in AA and 24.6%, 23.2% and 18.7% in AAA as he bounced back and forth between the majors and AAA. His walk rates in the minors were around 10%. Even though he was able to improve his strike out rate over time, it didn't traslate well in the majors for him and slugging percentages of 550-600 in the minors was 289 in 751 major league plate appearances. Carlos Peguero is still hanging on. Unlike Wood, his strikeout rate never improved below 30% as he moved up the ladder. He has 319 major league plate appearances with a strike out rate of 39.5%. Slugging in the minors of 463, 558, 562, 563 translates to 384 overall in the majors. Derek Norris is on the list. He was a major league all star last year. In AA, he had a strike out rate of 27.7% and an ISO of 237. You might dismiss this as a good comp since both the K rate and ISO are 20-25% below Walker's level. They are full season stats though and Walker will likely drop a little in both. There is also the context of the park and league. Norris is a valuable major league player. He followed his AA season with a AAA strike out rate of 16.7%. I am not sure what caused the change but he did move to the A's organization from the Nationals and perhaps the A's saw something in his swing that they fixed. That list isn't too encouraging. There is a flaw in my selection. Players with Walker's power don't always stay in AA a full season and therefore do not qualify on the leaderboards. Maybe I missed better players. I looked at it in reverse. I took the current top 10 batters according to strike out rate and looked at their performance in AA. I am hoping that they had similar high strike out rates in AA. Below is a list of the 10 and their strikeout rates this year and in AA. Player MLB%/AA% Souza (36.6% / 23.5%) Carter (35.9% / 20.1%) Davis (34.5% / 21.8%) Stanton (32.7% / 26.2%) Soler (32.2% / 19% ) Pederson (30.1% / 22.0%) Bryant (29.8% / 25.9%) Martinez (28.6% / 16.8%) LaRoche (27.6% / 20.1%) Springer (27.4% / 30.1%) George Springer is my hero. The other 9 strike out at a greater rate in the majors than they did in AA. I guess that shouldn't be surprising. Half of the players had better than a 50% increase in strike out rate. How about George? Like Derek Norris, he went to AAA and reduced his strike out rate In 266 plate appearance it was 24.6%. His overall rate in the major leagues is 30.8% and with that rate he has been a productive player with an OPS 792. What about Walker? Will he be a lifetime minor leaguer like Brandon Waring? Will he bounce back and forth like Brandon Wood? Can he stick like George Springer?

Catcher is the only spot where there isn't a clear solution this year or next. Extending Suzuki through 2016 guaranteed the Twins will have a deficit at that position. They needed to trade him last year for the best the market would return. Lucroy is a solution. The cost of acquisition is going to hurt. You don't get a catcher who was 4th in the MVP voting with 6.7 WAR the previous year without significant cost. They shouldn't expect to get him for a Walker or a Kepler. Don't waste time dreaming up deals where the Twins send several mid level prospects. It is going to take one player with very high upside and more. Lucroy is that good.

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s. His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

There will be player movement in the minors the last two or three weeks of June. Polanco is a good candidate to move up.

Plouffe is in the midst of his peak seasons. He is a valuable player in his age 29 season. He is under team control through 31. It is unlikely he will take another significant step up and very likely he will not perform this well at 32. The Twins need to enjoy the ride and sell high.

The Twins seem to have a plan for Hicks. If that plan was to give him extended time in AAA, they need to follow through. Extended time might be June 1 or Memorial Day, but it is still too early now. I would have had him as a platoon 4th OF. Though I disagreed with their plan, I do believe they need to follow through. It is important to have a plan in developing players and not react to small samples.

Eddie Yost was an all star in 1952. They traded him after the 1958 season for little at age 32. In his 57 and 58 seasons he had WARs of 0.4 and 0.7. I fail to see the comparison to Plouffe who has been far more valuable at this similar spot in career. Yost's perfromance in 57 and 58 is a much better parallel to the CF situation in Minnesota

I appreciate that data in a small sample size were not used to make the decision. Hicks will get his shot this year. Pinto will get his shot. I think it is the last option for both. A long stretch (~40 game) of success in AAA followed by a strategic transition to the majors will benefit both.

May has two more starts before Nolasco will be available. While Nolasco has been out both Pelfrey and Milone have put up starts that are better than any of Nolasco's 28 starts as a Twin (using game score). He might not be one of the best 5. If he isn't, he belongs in the pen. Easy decision.

I don't see a team with young players seeing Gardenhire as a fit. If a team is out of contention, Gardenhire is not the manager to finish the season. His bad teams never play well in August and September. I would go interim and look for a manager in the winter when the pool is larger. A team with veterans and a need for a change to a player's manager might be a good fit. Does that describe any of the team's above?

Nolasco's first rehab start is Sunday. It will likely take at least two as he builds towards 100 pitches. The 5 in the rotation have at least two more starts before a decision is made. If they are all pitching at 4th starter level or better, it would be foolish to replace them with Nolasco.

With almost every move since Ryan returned, little value has been placed on defensive skill. While I do believe he cares that players play the game right and throw to the right cut off man, I don't think he values skill defensively. It has contributed significantly the Twins inability to prevent runs. The only solution the front office can see is to exchange mediocre pitchers with different mediocre pitchers. Give mediocre pitchers a bad defense behind them and league bottom catchers in front of them and they perform among the worst in baseball.

It is too early. Once they decide to send Hicks down, they need to give him a long enough stretch in AAA. The next time they call him up needs to be the last time. They likely poorly evaluated Schafer's skills when they took him to arbitration. Give him 120 PAs and assess. Stubbs is not a good solution. He is now a below average defender in CF. He is past his prime seasons. His numbers were home fueled in 2014. Trading for him based on that performance would be like signing a decline phase reliever with Petco fueled numbers. The Twins already have a guy that can compete with his road 211/283/333 and struggle against right handed pitching. Give him some more time in AAA.