Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Typical for a starter (particularly for the back end) is more struggle in the first inning when they face the top of the line up. That isn’t Odorizzi’s struggle.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think you need a pretty deep bullpen for the opener strategy to work. That opener is going to see the opponents best hitters in the first inning. It can’t be a guy from the back of the bullpen. Last year AL pitchers had a 4.71 ERA in the first inning vs an ERA of 4.05 and 4.02 in the second or third inning, Odorizzi doesn’t fit that pattern. He pitched well in the first inning last year with an ERA of 3.09. That is only meaningful because over the sample of his career he has performed well in the first inning. I don’t think the Twins can pull a reliever for the back of the bullpen and match that 3.09 ERA in the first inning. Do the Twins try to change Odorizzi so he goes against his career tendencies of dropping off around the 4th or 5th inning? Do the Twins try to utilize the talents he has established? He might be best utilized opening and going three innings. Last year’s line innings 1-3: 94.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 100 K, 36 BB, .628 OPS against The sample is relatively small but consistent with his career. He wouldn’t get any wins being pulled after 3 innings but those numbers would certainly help a team win. Those are tough innings. You probably are seeing the top of the lineup a second time. I don’t know how you configure a staff to utilize that talent. I don’t know if he can go out and pitch 3 innings more often than every 5th day. I do think there is an underutilized role of a pitcher who can be effective for 3-4 innings.
  3. jorgenswest
    Interesting study from SABR and the origins of the pitching rotation. https://sabr.org/research/origins-pitching-rotation I don’t have any definitive takeaways but it did cause a few thoughts. - I wonder about the typical size of a pitching staff over time. I know it has increased to the point where platooning isn’t very viable. - I wonder if today’s rotation 5 man model is too rigid and whether pitching roles themselves have become too rigid. - I wonder about the history of pitcher health. This is difficult to track as I suspect pitchers were injured but kept pitching many years ago. I do think the construction of the pitching staff will evolve again. I think the Twins are trying to be in the front side of that curve.
  4. jorgenswest
    Cruz is projected for more WAR than any positional player on the team. Adding a player to the top moves the needle for me. They need to add to the top of the bullpen next.
  5. jorgenswest
    I should have included Dozier. I was looking at top prospects and I missed him or he wasn’t there. He was 39/142 in A/A+ I think strike zone management manifests itself two ways. For most it is laying off stuff out of the zone. For Hicks and maybe Kepler it is recognizing and aggressively attacking pitches that should be barreled up. The Twins are getting better data in the minor leagues related to both.
  6. jorgenswest
    Too many years spent in A Ball? Slow played? I think that shifted in this decade. I don’t think our perception shifted? Arcia - 20 games A, 114 games A+ Buxton - 68/87 Sano - 129/56 Polanco - 115/94 Kepler - 61/108 Rosario - 95/60 Hicks - 172/122 Hicks is the only one who needed two years between A and A+. Everyone else was advanced. All arrived at a young age. None arrived with a good idea of the strike zone. Was it because they were moved too fast? Was it a failure of development? Maybe it was an inability to recognize talent. This core of players has changed my view of moving players quickly through the minors. I think it is far better to error on the side of moving too slow. I don’t think it will hurt the ultimate development and it will likely shift a year of service to additional season in a player’s prime.
  7. jorgenswest
    I used to think that the Twins needed to bring the prospects up earlier to the major leagues. I am certain I debated with Seth the merits of pushing prospects to the majors. I was excited to see Sano, Arcia and Hicks jump from AA. Buxton made the jump after a cup of coffee in AAA. It turns out Seth was right. I don’t see how the rush helped any of the four. It does rush service time though. For Rooker an option would need to be used. I now believe there is a lot of value in AAA and learning to manage the strike zone. I would much prefer an additional season in their prime rather than the ups and downs of a 22 year old season. I really want to see the current group of young players establish an understanding of the strike zone in AAA before they hit the majors. That can happen in half of a season.
  8. jorgenswest
    I don’t have much hope but he still has an option. There is enough hope in his curveball and strikeout/walk rates to give him another year in AAA on An options shuttle. Let’s hope the new pitching coaches will find the adjustment he needs, I wouldn’t give up his spot on the 40 before Granite’s or Reed’s. Relief pitchers with options will be needed to extend the bullpen.
  9. jorgenswest
    Nick- Does the Cruz signing reduce the Twins need for Cron? At best his value this year is the difference between he and Austin in 2019 performance. Cron projects at 1.6 WAR. We also have control in 2020 but Rooker or Kirilloff may be in the picture at that point. If you did the rankings with Cruz in mind would Cron slot in the same place given the reduction in need?
  10. jorgenswest
    I will only argue that slash stats don’t give a good picture of performance. They are far too heavily influenced by BABip and other factors not independent to the batter. I look forward to measures derived from the pitch level and batted ball data. Baseball Prospectus has a new DRC+ that I want to dig into. I would love to see how Kepler, Rosario and Cave measure up. I expect teams are designing even better models. Before the Cruz deal, Kepler was projected for the most WAR among the Twin position players (fangraphs/steamer) for 2019. That projection is based on his numbers the last three years. As always I appreciate the your thoughtful responses. Thanks for the debate.
  11. jorgenswest
    I am saying that data in smaller samples should not be considered in the decision making process. We rely on the eyes of a skilled staff. The Twins also have a wealth of pitch level data that we don’t see. We rely on the talents of the staff interpreting that data. One partial year of slash stats should have no weight in the decision making progress. There may be pitch level and batted ball data that supports Cave but we see little of that data. It will be a race for organizations to learn how to interpret that data and its reliability in projecting performance. As for Kepler I find the progress in strike out rate and walk rate encouraging. He has good command of the strike zone. He now needs to improve his ability to recognize those pitches he can attack and be aggressive. It was the same with Hicks.
  12. jorgenswest
    Stats in small samples are not a good measure of future performance. Cave doesn’t have near the sample to project forward based on last year’s major league slash stats. They are not near enough sample to support an argument that he has earned a job. The only traditional measures that become reliable short of a full season of regular play are strike out rate and walk rate. Those measures from last year can give a good picture of plate discipline. Danny Santana had an OPS of .824 in 430 plate appearances his rookie year at 23. He also had 98 strike outs and 19 walks. The Twins should only have paid attention to the strike outs and walks at that sample. They were the best measures of his ability to perform.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would like to configure a staff that will be 12 pitchers the majority of the year. Does either stacking or the opener help make that more likely than a traditional configuration?
  14. jorgenswest
    Would stacking drive a need for a larger staff? If it is the same two then they are both unavailable on other days. You could look at it as a way to give your own a regular breather and count on 8 from Mejia and Odorizzi. I don’t think that would happen though. I think you would get to the 7th inning and be really tempted to play matchups late in a close game. The opener strategy wouldn’t commit two pitchers. The opener goes two and the Odorizzi is in for 4 or maybe 5. The opener is available in the pen with a day of rest and it can be a different opener for his next “start” depending on match up. I am not sold on either but I am intrigued how to better utilize pitchers that can be effective 3-5 innings.
  15. jorgenswest
    The splits through 75 for his career all show an OPS below 700. After 75 and it is almost 900. Last year was very similar though I am not sure if the splits have enough sample to tell a different story than the career numbers. I don’t think this indicates a reliever use. They don’t know how he would handle pitching on consecutive days. It might indicate value in an opener role once a series or perhaps stacked with another pitcher. He might be a source of around 100-130 good innings. Is it worth configuring the staff to get those innings?
  16. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t the end of spring training be the right time to try to get Austin to AAA. All teams will be feeling a roster crunch and dealing with players without options. His lack of positional flexibility makes him tough to add as the short side of a 1B platoon. A team like the Mariners would still likely sign a guy like Austin only to DFA him in a few weeks with the hope of keeping him in the organization but the end of spring is still the best time. There will be several players DFA’d and he might not be the best option.
  17. jorgenswest
    One split that stands out for Odorizzi in his splits is breaking down pitches 1-25, 26-50, ... Last year matched his career numbers. He has solid splits for his career in the first three groups but there is a large drop off in the 76-100 set. This isn’t typical for a starter. Often the first 25 are the most difficult as they rarely occur against batters at the bottom of the order. It might not be that hitters are gaining an advantage the third look but rather his ability to perform drops off. None of the current typical pitching roles fit a pitcher who is effective through abough 75 pitches or 4-5 innings. Starters stretch out towards 100, closers might max at 25 and other relievers maybe 40. Are there other pitchers that would fall in the 50-75 pitch bucket? Is there a way to use them effectively on a pitching staff? Would a manager be willing to pull Odorizzi after 4 good innings and 70 pitches like they would pull a reliever after 2 good innings? I think they can get a very solid 130 innings from Odorizzi if they pull him as he approaches 75. I am not starting a new inning with him after 65 pitches. How might this fit in the structure of a staff?
  18. jorgenswest
    How does the Cruz signing limit their focus on developing a system?
  19. jorgenswest
    Nice to have Cruz. It seems important to some that the Twins either be in a rebuilding box or a contending box. I think he fits in either box. Rebuilding teams benefit from veteran leaders. Contending teams benefit from good hitters. He certainly fits in my box. I really enjoy the game of baseball and will be following almost every game. He is likely to make several of those 162 more enjoyable. Now let’s go get a few relievers.
  20. jorgenswest
    The only way to get all of Austin, Cruz and Cron in the lineup against a left handed pitcher is to play one of them in RF or LF. If that is feasible, it should be a very good lineup against a left handed starter.
  21. jorgenswest
    Astudillo offers both positional flexibility and roster flexibility with his option.
  22. jorgenswest
    What does it say about an organization when the 19th best asset was available on waivers? What does it say about Gordon who sits behind at 20? In ranking players would it be reasonable to ask the question, “Would I trade number 20 to get number 19?” Would the Twins have traded Gordon for Cron this winter? If offered a Gordon for Cron today, would the Twins take the deal? Cron has done nothing this winter to increase his value. He can hit but very similarly skilled players have been easily available.
  23. jorgenswest
    I would think projections will be 2-3 WAR. Starting players but not stars.
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t think any reasonable projection would be based on a single season and certainly not a season where plate appearances were limited.
  25. jorgenswest
    Buxton’s career OPS is .672. His glove and that OPS will help the Twins win games but I expect his OPS to be better. Steamer projects .710.
×
×
  • Create New...