jorgenswest

The Twins chose to add Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario to the 40 man roster. There is no doubt they have major league velocity. They also haven't found success in Low A ball yet. They opened in Cedar Rapids in 2014 and were injured early in the season. Last year both returned from injuries and pitched in rookie ball before entering low A in 2015. They need a career path where they can be established in the majors before they run out of options 2016- They really should start in Cedar Rapids again with the hopes of making it to High A for the second half. A dominant half season in Low A followed by some success in high A would be a good progress. One Option used. 2017- By the end of 2017, they hopefully can be finding success in AA. Perhaps they start by dominating high A ball. The transition to AA can be difficult. Ideally they will have spend a good part of the season at that level. Two options used. 2018- AA is the key. If they did not have a full season of success at that level in 2017 it might be the start point for 2018. Dominance should get them some time at the major league level. Third option used. Option rules do allow select players to get a fourth option year, but they’re only eligible during their first five seasons in full-season ball. Both Landa and Rosario opened 2014 on the full-season Cedar Rapids roster. I think they will get three options. Someone can help here because I am not certain. With good progress they might span the 4 minor league levels in over 2+ seasons and arrive in the majors in 2018. They will need to pitch well right away. They will be on their last option. Neither will have an option on opening day 2019 at 24 years old. It is very unlikely either will be an established major league pitcher at the point the Twins need to decide whether to keep them. There is a long discussion about the merits of keeping Pinto and protecting Jones instead. That should continue in the major league forum. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20798-article-twins-add-seven-to-their-40-man-roster-lose-achter-pinto/ Did the Twins make a mistake in putting them on the Cedar Rapids roster to open 2014? They were 19 years old on opening day. If the Twins had sent them to extended spring training instead, they would have been allowed a fourth option year. The Twins have been criticized for moving their players too slowly in the past. Is this a case where they were too aggressive?

Graham should be in the starting rotation in AAA next year. He is worth a 40 spot to see if the talent he had before the injury resurfaces.

Thanks. The context relative to other teams and players available is important.

I think Meyer will be a contributor. I think we will see an AFL guy or two by midsummer. They need to get one more solid reliever to start the season. Fien is no longer reliable and doesn't have upside. I think they can get a solid younger reliever for Plouffe to add to May, Jepsen and Perkins innings 7-9. Maybe someone like Smith from the Brewers.

I had a note arbitration last year that Milone's steamer projection was 4.49. I don't see the full run difference. Doesn't really matter though. Not worth trying to locate steamer for the rest. This objective and respected projection shows that the Twins starters do not compare well with the rest of the central. The Twins have to hope they all outperform. That doesn't seem likely. I have Bill James projections but have not compared to rest of central yet. Maybe the Twins will look better.

I think the majority of the 30+ relievers that sign multiyear deals will be signings that eventually hurt their team. They will be kept and their performance will not be at the level of playoff bound bullpen. Younger players will not get an opportunity. A single investment can be very good. Do the Twins have the skill to select the correct reliever who will produce for three years? In general, they need to sign players well above league average so their decline takes them to league average. Otherwise they get for the mediocre return of decline while paying for the previous level of performance in their prime.

Signing one of those three long term to be at the back end of the rotation would have been reasonable. The second signing needed to be a top of the rotation pitcher where the decline would have taken him to the middle. Maybe a guy like that wasn't going to sign with the Twins. Then they needed to use their prospects to get one in trade. Making more multiyear commitments to number 4/5 starters might help a team get to .500 but also makes it difficult to move beyond that. Their strength again this year is they have a lot of those guys. They have 8 guys that could pitch at the back end of many rotations. Teams aren't going to be willing to pay tens of millions for that player but it is a steal when you get that player for Sam Fuld. So they will use May to bolster the late innings. They will have Duffey and Berrios in AAA. Any injury to the other 5 and there will be no drop off in the rotation. It might even be an upgrade.

Did you read the original article and the link to Cameron's earlier study? The 11 that I added from 2013 averaged 38 innings per season. No one had an ERA under 3. Six of the 11 severely underperformed their contracts. Three of the 11 finished their contract with their teams and performed as expected (Peralta, Choate, Gorzelanny). If the argument is that using WAR or fangraph dollars as a one number summary doesn't work, they are based on FIP which is based on strikeouts, walks and home runs. Would you prefer ERA? WPA?

The risk in signing a 30+ reliever to a multiyear contract is that they will be mediocre and their contract will keep them on the team. Instead of giving the ball to younger stronger arms, they will keep giving the ball to the veteran with the declining strike out rate and velocity. Trade for a younger reliever with a lively arm. Pay up for a free agent on a one year deal. Don't pay for the multiyear decline of a free agent reliever. The odds are too great it won't pay off.

I would agree about the bullpen. However, it is very difficult to determine which 30+ free agent reliever will maintain their level of performance. Signing a free agent, particularly for multiple years, might add mediocrity to then pen with a contract that blocks the young relievers similar to the money they spent on mediocre starters. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8023-gambling-on-the-relief-market-simply-folly/ The best hope is that some of the young relievers are ready for the majors. The Twins might also see if they can get a younger impact reliever for Trevor Plouffe.

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here. Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is based on previous year's peripherals. Phil Hughes 32, 4.20 #121 Ervin Santana 31, 4.34 #140 Kyle Gibson 29, 4.15 #117 Ricky Nolasco 19, 4.34 (#140) Tommy Milone 16, 4.10 (#112) Tyler Duffey 13, 4.19 (#121) Jose Berrios 11, 3.99 (#92) Comparing the 169 starters projected for at least 20 starts the median ERA is 3.90 in Ian Kennedy. The ERA's in the AL are generally higher. Last year the NL had a better league ERA by 0.10 so the median AL starter might be around 3.95 and the median NL starter around 3.85. The Twins do not fare well. The Twins have one pitcher with a projected performance that would fit a number 3 starter around the league median in Berrios. Gibson, Milone and Hughes look to be number 4 starters with Hughes on the fringe. Nolasco and Santana fit in with the number 5 starters. Trevor May's projected ERA of 3.49 is based on relief work. His outstanding 3.25 FIP last year leads to his solid ERA projection. What about the rest of the AL central? The Indians have some of the best starters in baseball. Kluber(3.02) and Carrasco(3.04) are clear number 1s. Salazar is a fringe number 1 ranking 29 with a 3.44 projection. Tomlin(3.82) is a solid number 3 and Bauer is a fringe #4 matching Hughes at 4.20. The Royals have two pitchers projected better than the median in Ventura (3.51) and Zimmer(3.84). Two others projected to be around the AL median in Duffy(3.93) and Medlin(4.00). The projection for Volquez is 4.27 which is in the midst of number 5 starters. Verlander(3.77) and Sanchez(3.84) top the projected median, but the Tigers run thin after those two. Norris(4.28), Boyd(4.28) and Farmer(4.75) all project to be number 5 starters or worse. I would expect the Tigers will add to their pitching staff before the start of 2016. The White Sox have the elite Chris Sale(2.82). Thankfully the Twins owned him last year. Quintana is projected well above the median at 3.70. Rodon might be a fringe #3 at 4.05. The other two Johnson(4.72) and Danks (4.75) ranked 165 and 167 of the 169 pitchers. The White Sox might add pitching also. The Twins have a problem. They have invested too much money in the bottom of their rotation. This type of performance was projected at the time of their signing. They can hope that Santana, Hughes and Nolasco outperform their projections. One might. It is very unlikely that all three will. The Tigers and White Sox have not invested the same kind of money into the bottom of their pitching staffs. The White Sox have one more year of money invested in Danks. The Twins have 2-4 more years invested into Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. Their contracts would make them very difficult to move. If May is included as a starter, the top five projected pitcher ERAs on the Twins next year are May, Berrios, Milone, Gibson and Duffy. Any chance the Twins will go with that rotation?

The Minnesota Twins have said that improving the bullpen is a very high priority this offseason. However, it is difficult to know which relievers were will be successful, will be worth their contract. Today, Jorgenwest provides some details about the success rates of multi-year contracts to relievers.Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi-year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all-star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy, averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30-something relievers in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins' dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer who will take a one-year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one-year deal than a guy just signed to three years and $15 million. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July. Click here to view the article

Center fielders in the AL had an OPS of 738 last year. AL Catchers had an OPS of 678. Hicks is a useful player. His floor is a 4th OF/right handed half of a platoon. He will probably never hit right handed pitching well enough to be a corner OF. Murphy is a useful player. His floor looks to be average defense with more offense than the typical second catcher. He does need to bat enough this year to make sure than Suzuki's contract does not vest. Two guys that belong on major league rosters with talent on the fringe of being an everyday regular at their positions. Both have enough upside to hit at league average relative to their positions.

Catching is expensive. In a trade of a CF for a catcher, the centerfielder is going to be the better offensive player. That Hicks projects better offensively than his return at catcher should be expected. The trade is fair. They are not going to get Sanchez for Hicks. The Twins need catching a lot more than center field. Murphy helps. They still need catching.

Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition. Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010. I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals. Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $14.3 million(Fangraphs) Joel Peralta (2013-2014), 2 years, $6 million: $8.8 million(Fangraphs) Sean Burnett (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $-0.5 million(Fangraphs) Randy Choate (2013-2015), 3 years, $7.5 million: $6.6 million(Fangraphs) Tom Gorzelanny (2013-2014), 2 years, $5.7 million: $7.3 million(Fangraphs) Jonathan Broxton (2013-2015), 3 years, $21 million: $4.9 million(Fangraphs) Kyuji Fujikawa (2013-2014), 2 years, $9.2 million: $1.1 million(Fangraphs) Brandon League (2013-2014), 3 years, $22.5 million: $-3.3 million(Fangraphs) Joakim Soria (2013-2014), 2 years, $8 million: $12.3 million(Fangraphs) Teams spent $124.65 million for 26 years of relievers. Their return on the investment was $45 million. Peralta and Gorzelanny were solid modest investments. Grilli had an all star season as a closer. Soria pitched well when healthy averaging 34 innings a season. As a group these relievers provided little value. They averaged 38 innings per year of mediocre relief. The same kind of relief the Twins have been able to find among the likes of Burton and Boyer. Do we have confidence the Twins can find the reliever that will by among the minority in this year's group and provide good value the next two or three season? I am not. I am not confident any team has the skill to find that value. The Twins need relievers. That is without question. The question is whether signing 30 something reliever in the free agent market is the answer. I think the Twins dollars are better spent elsewhere. Go with the young players. Continue to sign guys like Boyer, Burton and Stauffer that will take a one year deal. The Twins success rate with those guys is no worse than the success rate in Cameron's study or the 2013 group. It is also much easier to cut ties with a guy on a one year deal than a guy they just signed to 3/15. If it doesn't work out, solid relievers can be found every July.

Lots of pages are wasted on packages that can never happen. Every team feels the 40 man roster crunch. They can't take on more guys on the 40 than they move. They will just lose other players when DFA'd to get down to 40. Berrios isn't on the 40 and has significant value. The Twins need a starter that is better than league average. Berrios has the best chance in the organization to meet that need. I think the need for a top starter is greater than the need for a catcher. Other prospects not on the 40 have little or no time above A ball and do not add enough to a package. Dozier is the Twins best asset towards acquiring a catcher. Dozier for a solid catcher or Weiters for their round 1 pick. I think I would roll the dice with Weiters and give up the pick.

I hope the Twins aren't trying to project the performance of Santana or Nunez or Escobar based on one season of data in which none of the three was a regular throughout the season. Projection should be based on 3-5 years. I would think based on that and age, Nunez would come out with little upside offensively or defensively. Santana's glove would certainly be better up the middle. Nunez would be a better fit at 3B. His value would increase with a Plouffe trade.

I have written enough about Suzuki's defense and bat. By any measure they are both significantly below average for the position. On paper, it wouldn't seem like a big drop off to Herrmann or Fryer is possible with the bar set so low. I have come to believe that there is an important aspect of Suzuki's contribution that has gone unmeasured by the myriad of metrics available.

As long as they aren't trying to squeeze one more year of a mediocre (but deserving of a major league job) decline phase veteran while at the same time designating a player with the upside of youth.

I wonder if they should shut him down and see if he can find his bat in winter ball. A left handed power bat under team control would be incredibly valuable to this organization. They have to give him a shot next year in a platoon role.

Hunter is going to keep playing until he has negative value. I hope the Twins aren't the team paying for that season. It could be next year.

Isn't the 2.140 date related to the group that will earn it following this year? For example, Arcia was 1.132 at the start of the season and was likely to miss the cutoff bu projection. I don't think they would have near enough data to make a projection on this year's group. There has only been a handful of years since the super 2 group size increased. There will be years where that number is below 122.

They might want to make sure he spends 20 days on assignment. Here are the considerations. Use an option this year and lose that possibility in 2018 by going 20 daysReduce service time by 20 days and the possibility of super 2 status goes from small to 0.The likelihood of needing an option in 2018 and super 2 status are both small. Small enough that he should be called up immediately if Rosario or Hicks are injured, Meanwhile the Twins were wise to stop the service time clock while he comes back from injury and avoid any possibility of super 2.

If anyone claimed Suzuki, Nolasco or Santana I would let them go. Unfortunately, I don't think any team would risk taking their contracts. If a player has a no trade contract but is waived and claimed, can they be let go without compensation? It isn't a trade. I realize no team is going to pick up Mauer with this many years left on his contract, but I do wonder about the possibility down the road. While not being a trade, the Twins do acquire salary relief.