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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The trend of pitcher games with 1 or 2 batters faced continues up since LaRussa's use of the bullpen in the late 80's. In 1988 there were 1006 games where pitchers faced 2 or fewer batters. His impact caused a large jump in the 1990s but the trend continues. 1998: 1876 2008: 2057 2018: 2307 2015: 2588 (most) Note: In 1988 there were fewer teams and thus fewer games. From 1988 to 1998 the number of games increased by 15% but the number of short relief stints by 86%. I appreciate that MLB and MLBPA are addressing the number of mid inning pitching changes. My preference would have been to address it by no mound visit/no warm up and no restriction on batters faced but this will help.
  2. jorgenswest
    1 or 2 batters

    From the album: Images

  3. jorgenswest

    Images

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  4. jorgenswest
    Screenshot 2019 03 16 09.22.58

    From the album: Images

  5. jorgenswest
    1 Or 2 batters

    From the album: tables

    1 or 2 batters faced 1961 to 2018
  6. jorgenswest

    tables

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  7. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t every calculation of UZR come out the same? The subjective piece has always been part of baseball. A score keeper is deciding whether a hit is an error and 1000 people might not always make the same decision. An umpire has to decide if it is a ball or a strike. Once determined the calculation is the same. I think UZR and DRS would be the same. If we want to use a measure to project the future, it is important to consider how well it correlates year to year. The defensive measures correlate similarly to many outcome based hitting stats like slugging percentage. Like those stat they need a full season of data or more to be reliable.
  8. jorgenswest
    (13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP + constant (usually around 3.2) Some might argue that the weights assigned to each event is worthy of debate.
  9. jorgenswest
    Should the Twins purposefully overuse Pineda next year? Of course not. I do think that they should not treat him the same as a younger longer term asset though. They should not be shutting him down on the short end of a range of innings as the Nationals did with Strasburg as he passed 150 innings. It is in the Twins interest and Pineda’s that they push the higher end of that range erroring on the overuse side of that range. Pineda is in his prime. He missed his first shot at a contract with injury. Next off season will likely be his last chance at a significant contract. He needs to show that he is fully healthy and can be very effective at handling a full load. The Twins need those innings. They can’t afford to invest into a one year asset shortened starts or extra days for rest. If the Twins are in contention later in the season they need to keep giving him the ball. If they aren’t in contention, they need to show he can handle the workload so they can trade him at the deadline. Perhaps the the term overuse in my earlier phrase “error on the side of overuse” carried to much weight. The Twins need to push the upper end of the innings expectation. It is in their interest and Pineda’s.
  10. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I appreciate the work. Pineda is likely a one year Twin. I would error on the side of overuse.
  11. jorgenswest
    Defensive stats do need a significant sample size so do many of the batting and pitching numbers that are heavily used on almost any baseball telecast. Not only are these stats presented as meaningful in a partial season sample they are often used in splits that further degrade the sample. One 2018 article with some discussion of the reliability of defensive metrics and reliability. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/statcasts-outs-above-average-and-uzr/ Defensive stats have evolved since 2012 but here is an early article on their reliability. They have improved since. https://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ I join those of you that are skeptical of defensive metrics in samples smaller than a full season or even more. I think we should be just as skeptical of slash stats, ERA, FIP and others that are much more commonly cited.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am not so sure. The difference between his uncertain value due to injury/age and salary may be negligible. Where is the market? Are there enough buyers to drive up the prospect close?
  13. jorgenswest
    Looks like the fringes if the 40 have some value to other teams. It is a positive sign when players aren’t easily passed through waivers. Granite’s defense in CF was second to Buxton. Kepler and Cave are adequate in CF so the need for Granite wasn’t there. I am not sure Reed will be around after they get to 25 and I hope they don’t need to go 4 deep in CF.
  14. jorgenswest
    I guess we go in circles so I will restate my original conditional “Even when everyone is healthy...” The fine tuning is an addition to the clear benefit of being able to insert a league average hitter when someone is out injured.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is a good thing. Players aren’t going to play every day and they have much better match up data. For instance Sano has done well against fastball pitchers over his career where Schoop has done better against pitchers who feature a sinker and cutter. Gonzalez has struggled more with the curve ball. The Twins will have the data and flexibility to fine tune the line up with the additional solid hitter.
  16. jorgenswest
    I see the at bats even when everyone is healthy. He can go in for Sano, Cron, Cruz or Schoop against a right handed pitcher. He can go in for Rosario and Kepler when facing a lefty. They ought to be able to find him 5 starts a week without compromising anyone’s regular playing time.
  17. jorgenswest
    His usage changed after the first half of 2018. When Correia was out in August the manager was giving time to Bregman at SS. There was at least one game last August with both Correia and Altuve out where Gonzalez was not used in either spot. Instead Gurriel was at 2B, Bregman at SS and Davis at 3B with Gonzalez in LF. I find it very odd that Hinch would shuffle his infield around like this if Gonzalez was a capable SS. Davis could have played LF. At SS Gonzalez had a UZR150 of -30.6 and an Rdrs/yr of -22. Those metrics can easily be dismissed due to sample. When coupled with his reduced use at SS starting in late July I think there is reason to wonder if SS is not a position that he can play at an adequate level. This is a good signing at two years. It probably just doesn’t reduce the need for another SS on the team. I will be watching to see if Schoop gets any SS innings this spring.
  18. jorgenswest
    Did the reporters follow up asking why he significantly reduced playing Gonzalez at SS after July 25 and used Bregman to replace Correia instead? There was a game in August where he started Guriel at 2B, Bregman at SS and Davis at 3B while starting Gonzalez in LF. Davis played OF last year in both the minors and Houston. He could have easily played his defensive infielder at SS, kept Bregman at 3B and played Davis in LF. No manager plays their best defensive infielder in LF when he is so desperately needed in the infield with both Altuve and Correia out. I think the manager’s action weigh heavier than his words here.
  19. jorgenswest
    He has really only played LF. He has never started a game in CF or RF so playing him in LF means moving Rosario off of his best spot. I like the flexibility they will have next offseason as they need to fill 2B. They can slot him in at 2B or they can slot him in at 3B and move Sano to 1B if Gordon or Arraez step up. As for SS, the Astros did not start him very often later in the season. Instead after July 24 Bregman was most often moved to SS when Correia wasn’t in the line up. It is possible his utility will be as a 2B-3B-LF. Still valuable but not the guy he was two and three years ago.
  20. jorgenswest
    Hopefully at two years the Twins don’t pay for too much of the decline. If he can still play a passable SS a three man bench of Gonzalez, Astudillo and Garvin is the best in years. I don’t see anyway Reed makes the team as a fourth OF now. I would remove him from the 40.
  21. jorgenswest
    It depends heavily on whether they are pitching against the top of the order or the bottom half.
  22. jorgenswest
    The challenge with the opener is expecting a reliever to get through the teams best hitters at the top of the order. It is going to take a very good reliever from a deep bullpen to make it work.
  23. jorgenswest
    Nice analysis. This should get it done.
  24. jorgenswest
    On the 3 batter minimum... I have been trying to find a game from last season stuck in my memory for being killed by pitcher changes the last 3 innings. June 3: Cleveland at Minnesota. Twins are losing 4-3 as we enter the bottom of the 7th. Starter Mike Clevenger faced 1 batter. Tyler Olson faced one batter Neil Ramirez faced one batter Oliver Perez cam in and finished the inning The Twins took the lead 5-4 for anyone who somehow kept following the game through all of the stoppages. The Indians had two other pitchers this game that faced 2 or fewer batters. The Twins had one. Four other relievers were used in the game. Nine relievers. 25 batters faced. 16 outs. Killed the flow of the game. While this game had 5 occurrences of a pitcher facing two or fewer batters, it wasn't the most. It might be typical of a close game that otherwise should be the kind of game that brings people to the ballpark. Last year I found 2293 occurrences of a pitcher facing two or less batters. In 1988 there were 1006. Baseball can help here. Make it a 3 batter minimum orAllow only 1 mid inning pitcher change per inning orNo more coach mounds visits of any kind orNo warms on mound for relievers. They have options. The very best games of the year are being killed by constant interruptions from the 7th inning on. Do something.
  25. jorgenswest
    Thanks. To add... If players aren’t performing they don’t get a continued opportunity the first year. There is a bias in the group towards players performing above their skill level and mean. It is only natural that the group will trend towards their mean in year 2.
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