There are all kinds of questions surrounding whether the Twins should trade Santana.

The market is a huge factor. Is it better to keep him given the limited options in or outside the organization? Is it better to trade him given the demand and supply? Will the demand be greater in July?

My interest is exploring the likelihood that he will continue to be a valuable pitcher for the next three seasons that the Twins can control. I looked for a similar group of pitchers with a healthy track record and solid age 33 season as well as providing league average performance age 29-33.

I used this criteria

• Pitchers pitched at least 750 innings in the 5 seasons age 29-33
  
• Pitchers that had an ERA+ centered around 102 for those 5 seasons
  
• Pitchers with a good age 33 season and an ERA+ of better than league average
  
• Pitchers since 1990 and the change in bullpen usage
  

Note- ERA+ is a searchable tool in play index. The various ERA estimators relative to league are not. At 750 innings, ERA+ will do as well as the others. It isn't as good for the age 33 season but looking at group data will give a good sample.

I pulled two groups from B-R's play index. The first group was the age 29-33 group. I found a group of 66 pitchers centered at an ERA+. The second group was age 33 pitchers with a good full season at that age. I found 64 pitchers in that group.

After finding the intersection of the two groups I ended up with 23 pitchers. One is Santana of course. Two others were also 33 in 2016 in J.A. Happ and Jason Hammel.

This is the remaining group of 20 pitchers. Radke is in the group though he retired after age 33 due to a shoulder injury. Removing him would be cherry picking but you might consider it a group of 19.

Ken Hill

Pete Harnisch

Kevin Gross

Woody Williams

Ted Lilly

Brad Radke

Shane Reynolds

Tim Belcher

Ervin Santana

Jason Hammel

Miguel Batista

Bobby Witt

Dave Burba

J.A. Happ

Jake Peavy

Bronson Arroyo

Kevin Appier

Kyle Lohse

Steve Trachsel

Todd Stottlemyre

Doug Davis

Esteban Loaiza

Hideo Nomo

At age 33, the group had an ERA+ range of 100 to 144. Santana was 124.

Comparing Santana against the median

median 12-10, 195 IP, 189 H, 60 BB, 143 K, 3.83 ERA

Santana 7-11, 181.1IP, 168 H, 53 BB, 149 K, 3.38 ERA

The context of offense and strikeouts was a little different in 2016 than the earlier part of the chosen era but it seemed a fair comparison group.

The 5 year group had an ERA+ range of 97-111, Santana was 101.

median 152-144, 896.2, 862, 309, 661, 4.12

Santana 140-140, 874.1, 820, 264, 704, 3.91

So how did this group perform at ages 34 through 36?

Age 34

• There were some outstanding age 34 seasons. Nomo had Belcher had excellent seasons.
  
• 10 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better.
  
• 9 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings (Batista was a closer) so 10 in 20 were healthy full season. Peavy and Stottlemyre had good seasons while not injured in 19 and 17 starts.
  
• 2615.1 innings from the group
  
• As a group, the median ERA+ was 95.5 (100.7 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched)
  

Age 35

• Woody Williams was outstanding in his 17 starts while healthy
  
• 5 of 20 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better.
  
• 8 of 20 pitchers threw at least 150 innings. Additionally Williams was very valuable in his 17 starts
  
• 2403 innings from the group
  
• As a group the median ERA+ was 86 (93.6 ERA+ weighted by innings pitched)
  

Age 36 (19 in this group. Peavy is 36 this year)

• Tim Belcher had a very good season with 34 starts and an ERA+ of 111
  
• 6 of 19 pitchers had an ERA+ of 100 or better though 2 of those seasons were less than 50 innings
  
• 5 of 19 pitchers threw at least 150 innings
  
• 1426.1 innings from the group
  
• As a group, the median ERA+ was 75.5 (96 weighted by innings pitched)
  

Innings as a group

33: 3786

34: 2615.1

35: 2403

36: 1426.1

This started as a group of 20 pitchers that had been healthy ages 29-33 while pitching well at age 33. In spite of their health, injuries were a factor age 34 to 36. Even at age 34 only 10 of the 20 provided full seasons.

There is a reason to be optimistic about 2017 for Santana. Those that stayed healthy maintained their solid performance. Twelve of 20 made solid contributions. There is also a reason to be a little optimistic through 2019. The ERA+ weighted by innings shows a near league average performance which isn't easy to acquire and rare among Twin pitchers since 2011.

There is also reason for concern. The innings drop off from the group of healthy pitchers is significant.

Ervin Santana is a very good pitcher and valuable to any team. He could well perform as a number 2 starter again next year. There is a reasonable chance that he will be a solid pitcher the next three seasons. Perhaps a better chance than Donald Trump winning the election.

Should Santana's age be a factor in the Twins decision on whether to trade him? Is there some reason to believe that there is something different about Santana compared to this group of pitchers who were also reasonable healthy through age 33?

Pitching is difficult enough to acquire that they might be better off gambling on Santana staying healthy. Those that stayed healthy performed reasonably well through age 36. The Twins could trade Santana for a young prospect, but there is no guarantee that prospect will remain healthy.

After looking at this group, I think I might gamble on Santana.