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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I wonder if it is consistency or variation due to sample. SLG and OBP stabilize near a full season and batting average around 900 plate appearances. Any conclusion drawn from slash stat splits or partial seasons is on shaky ground.
  2. jorgenswest
    Why would Astudillo put on a catcher's mitt? He stopped playing catcher in AAA four weeks before his first appearance in the major leagues. Since June 2 he played primarily 3B with a couple of starts in LF and one a DH for Rochester. They gave him two months at AAA to show he was an acceptable catcher. The staff moved him off of catcher and to 3B. Why would they move him back once he hit the majors? I can see how we might question Molitor if he played him at catcher and ignored what was learned in Rochester. I don't get the persistent questioning of why Astudillo isn't getting a chance at catcher. He had a chance for two months before they moved him to 3B.
  3. jorgenswest
    Convincing argument. Keep him in AAA. Send him to instructionals. Let’s see him next year. A wonder... Didn’t the Twins down a struggling Dozier without bringing him back when rosters expanded? At the time there was speculation that Dozier wasn’t in the plans. For Dozier the refresh was helpful.
  4. jorgenswest
    I hope Romero. He should be available.
  5. jorgenswest
    It isn’t as clear to me that Garver gives them a better chance to win if he were to get one or two more starts a week particularly if starting Garver means shorter starts and more burden on the bullpen. I don’t know if that is the case but the Twins leadership is playing a catcher with a very poor bat frequently. Perhaps they are completely inept in which case the situation is hopeless and it doesn’t matter which flawed catcher they start.
  6. jorgenswest
    His status relative to other prospects may have fallen or risen. Isn’t that what matters? I don’t think we know whether he has fallen or risen in status without knowing how many left the group. The numbers shouldn’t be compared. It could be I am wrong and my understanding of winter vs. summer rankings is flawed.
  7. jorgenswest
    Aren’t there some players who have been taken off the list? Wouldn’t we expect everyone to move up? Has Gordon moved ahead of any shortstops previously ahead of him? Have any shortstops passed him up? It could be that moving up 15 spots isn’t really moving up at all. How many players above him were taken off due to playing in the majors?
  8. jorgenswest
    Garver seems to catch Lynn and Odorizzi. Wilson has been catching Gibson and more recently is also catching Berrios. The 5th starter has been going more often to Wilson. Garver did catch Slegers awful appearance. Wilson’s share increased when he started being matched with Berrios. Garver is getting enough opportunities. He needs to earn more starts with his play behind the plate. He doesn’t need to be starting every day. He needs to do well with every opportunity he is given.
  9. jorgenswest
    Is Gibson more valuable to the team than Kelly in 2019? I think so. That doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t do the trade because they have just 1 year of Gibson control. Please don’t think that they can do this trade and easily replace Gibson in free agency. We have seen the success of this year’s free agent starters. I hesitate because I really don’t want to weaken 2019 for the future.
  10. jorgenswest
    Should Gordon play if Adrianza and Polanco are playing well? Is it possible that the pairing that gives the Twins the best overall play next year is Adrianza at SS and Polanco at 2B? Adrianza didn’t come to the Twins with the Baseball America or Fangraphs prospect stamp of approval but he might have a window in his prime where he is a contributing starter on a good team.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think they vastly underestimated this spring also when his peripherals and projections placed him with or above many of the free agent pitchers discussed including the one they signed. Back to topic though I think good starting pitching is hard to replace. I would rather have a defense only catcher and a good starter.
  12. jorgenswest
    Loved the at bats early in the game pushing the pitch count. Grossman and Adrianza had some very good early at bats.
  13. jorgenswest
    Is Kelly better than Knizner?
  14. jorgenswest
    Great topic... Is It possible that Adrianza can provide near league average shortstop play in 2019? I think I asked the same question about Escobar when the discussion was about adding Drew in free agency. Adrianza in his prime may have a window where he is a starting shortstop.
  15. jorgenswest
    In general going back two or three years to project forward will give a much more reliable projection than the current partial season or previous season. This breaks down if there is an injury that drives a sudden drop. I don’t think that is the case with a Dozier. If a team needs a starting 2B to finish out the season and are given the option of Dozier or Escobar, I think they choose Dozier.
  16. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that Bobby Wilson at catcher gives them a greater likelihood of winning in some match ups? If that is the case, shouldn’t Molitor be playing Wilson in those games?
  17. jorgenswest
    I think Gordon will benefit from more AAA based on his strikeout and walk rates but it is those that see him everyday that can assess his pitch recognition. If he still has work to do at AAA then they need to be patient. I wonder if they see Polanco in the near term at SS. The best defensive pairing for next year might have Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS. Can Adrianza hit close enough to the median SS to provide acceptable production over the span of his peak seasons? The most productive offense/defense pairing next year might be Polanco and Adrianza but that could be at the cost of developing Gordon long term and allowing him to struggle in the majors next year. I would go with the pairing I think will be best in the near term and go with Adrianza as long as his bat is close to league median SS.
  18. jorgenswest
    If Gray is available they will get a better return than those offered here. His peripherals are solid this year so I think the Rockies will have him back up soon. Sending players down around the break is not unusual. I will join in the dream of acquiring Gray for expiring contracts though. I am sure other teams are inquiring about what it would take to pry away Gray. The Twins should be inquiring.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split. It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.
  20. jorgenswest
    You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.
  21. jorgenswest
    Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important. The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop. The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league. Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Cardinals are a good match with two catching prospects near ready and Molina.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think it is important to discern the purpose of what I am reading whether it be sports or anything else. Reporters report facts. Columnists offer opinion and try to persuade or draw on emotions. It doesn’t matter where they are sitting. Purpose matters.
  24. jorgenswest
    It should. Reporters report. They are with the team daily. Columnists give opinion. They try persuade and draw out emotions.
  25. jorgenswest
    They need to better than 3 good seasons out of 14 for the ~150 million they spent on Hughes, Santana and Nolasco.
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