jorgenswest

They can guarantee Baker by picking up his option. If he can produce 2 WAR, he will exceed the value of his option.

I think everyone would agree that the Twins greatest need is starting pitching. In order to get major league starting pitching, the Twins probably need to offer starting pitching prospects. Look at all of the Oakland deals where they traded established pitching for pitching prospects. The Twins don't have starting pitching prospects to offer. Conversely, the most attractive way to get starting pitching prospects is to trade major league ready starting pitching. Twins certainly don't have starters to offer. So what to do with Span (or Willingham, Morneau, Doumit)? By 2014 an outfield of Arcia, Revere and Hicks can be foreseen. Parmelee can be projected to help next year. Willingham, Morneau and Doumit will be in decline, The Twins probably can't get significant starting pitching for them. Maybe they can fill another need. Middle infield is a need. The Pirates are an example of a possible trade partner. This is assuming that the Pirates believe in Brock Holt and also realize that his only position is 2B. A parallel trade that might make sense to both teams could be Span for Neil Walker. I suppose Revere for Holt is also a parallel trade of position players at a similar age. The Twins might spend the entire off season trying to trade position players for pitching and come up empty. They came up empty attempting to get pitching this summer. Maybe they need to adjust the target and try to fill a different need.

I think everyone would agree that the Twins greatest need is starting pitching. In order to get major league starting pitching, the Twins probably need to offer starting pitching prospects. Look at all of the Oakland deals where they traded established pitching for pitching prospects. The Twins don't have starting pitching prospects to offer. Conversely, the most attractive way to get starting pitching prospects is to trade major league ready starting pitching. Twins certainly don't have starters to offer. So what to do with Span (or Willingham, Morneau, Doumit)? By 2014 an outfield of Arcia, Revere and Hicks can be foreseen. Parmelee can be projected to help next year. Willingham, Morneau and Doumit will be in decline, The Twins probably can't get significant starting pitching for them. Maybe they can fill another need. Middle infield is a need. The Pirates are an example of a possible trade partner. This is assuming that the Pirates believe in Brock Holt and also realize that his only position is 2B. A parallel trade that might make sense to both teams could be Span for Neil Walker. I suppose Revere for Holt is also a parallel trade of position players at a similar age. The Twins might spend the entire off season trying to trade position players for pitching and come up empty. They came up empty attempting to get pitching this summer. Maybe they need to adjust the target and try to fill a different need.

WPA is more a metric than a statistic. RBI and certainly GWRBI would be examples of statistics with marginal predictive value. The value of a metric is often the predictive value. Therefore it is not surprising that many sabrmetric geeks give little attention to WPA.

Thinking back on the trade in the context of the market, I do think the new CBA played a part in depressing this year's trade market. An additional wild card team should have led to more buyers. I am not so certain it did. At the time Liriano as traded, I was interested to see what kinds of deals were made for starting pitchers on deadline day. After the Liriano deal, two starting pitchers were traded. That surprised me. I expected more. It leads me to wonder how many teams were so interested in starting pitching that they were willing to part with top prospects. Pitchers more valuable than Liriano were left on the table. I look at the two deals an I wonder if Liriano could have been substituted in either. Paul Maholm deal- Liriano has better stuff, but I don't think his stuff is enough. Maholm has been consistently solid over his last 50 starts. He is not a rental and has a reasonable option for 2013. Had the Twins waited, I don't think the Braves would have given the Twins the same package they sent the Cubs. Dempster deal- A rental like Liriano, but performing much better. Given the choice, I think Texas would have more confidence in Dempster. They really didn't give up much. A B- infield prospect and a C pitching prospect. Hendricks looks a lot like a typical back of the rotation Twin pitcher with control. He is 8 months younger than Hernandez. He is also right handed and in A-Ball. He didn't enter the season in the Ranger top 30 but is likely there now. It does not appear that better deals were available had the Twins waited. Another aspect I wanted to look at is what would it take to get a Zack Wheeler type prospect at the trade deadline. I am not sure any Wheeler's were traded this year. The best of the pitching prospects also come with some concerns. Jacob Turner - Entered the season an A- prospect but his arm troubles and K rate are concerns. It took Anibal Sanchez to get him. The Twins don't have anyone like Sanchez to trade so this was not a possibility. Nate Eovaldi - Not Zack Wheeler but a B pitching prospect. It took Hanley Ramirez. John Hellweg and Ariel Pena - These are the pitchers in the Zach Grienke deal. B-/C+ prospects. Hellweg has the arm but lacks in performance. Born in 1988, he is old for a top prospect just hitting AA. Arodys Vizcaíno - Great prospect and huge injury concerns. Second arm injury leads him to Tommy John surgery. I would love for the Twins to have had the opportunity to roll the dice with him. However, I don't think Liriano has near the value of Maholm when you look at performance and next year's contract situation. Maybe a deal of Span and Liriano could brought Arodys Vizcaíno, but that is a lot to give up for such an injury risk. It is very likely that he will return as a reliever. Kyle Hendricks - Wrote about him above. A command and control pitcher from Dartmouth. It took Dempster to get him. J.C. Sulbaran - Noteworthy because this is the guy the Reds were willing to deal. Low 90s fastball curve and changeup. He is in AA this year and continues to struggle with control. Strikeout numbers look good. His upside made him an interesting prospect entering the season (BBA #12 Reds, Sickels C+). If Sulbaran was the key offering from the Reds in a Span deal, would you have traded Span. We do know that these starting pitchers were available since they were ultimately moved. Which pitcher could the Twins have acquired? I think they could have acquired Sulbaran in a deal for Span. They would have received other pieces but I think this is the best starting prospect the Reds were willing to part with. How about Vizcaino? Is Liriano close enough to Maholm that they could see Liriano meeting their needs? Certainly not alone. Would a package of Span and Liriano been enough? Maybe. But that's a lot to give up for an injured Vizcaino with concerns about whether he will hold up as a starter. Starting pitching prospects have always carried the most value. In the context of the new CBA, acquiring them at the trade deadline has become more difficult. The Twins best hope is to find and develop a few more Diamonds among the C prospects available. No easy task.

Thinking back on the trade in the context of the market, I do think the new CBA played a part in depressing this year's trade market. An additional wild card team should have led to more buyers. I am not so certain it did. At the time Liriano as traded, I was interested to see what kinds of deals were made for starting pitchers on deadline day. After the Liriano deal, two starting pitchers were traded. That surprised me. I expected more. It leads me to wonder how many teams were so interested in starting pitching that they were willing to part with top prospects. Pitchers more valuable than Liriano were left on the table. I look at the two deals an I wonder if Liriano could have been substituted in either. Paul Maholm deal- Liriano has better stuff, but I don't think his stuff is enough. Maholm has been consistently solid over his last 50 starts. He is not a rental and has a reasonable option for 2013. Had the Twins waited, I don't think the Braves would have given the Twins the same package they sent the Cubs. Dempster deal- A rental like Liriano, but performing much better. Given the choice, I think Texas would have more confidence in Dempster. They really didn't give up much. A B- infield prospect and a C pitching prospect. Hendricks looks a lot like a typical back of the rotation Twin pitcher with control. He is 8 months younger than Hernandez. He is also right handed and in A-Ball. He didn't enter the season in the Ranger top 30 but is likely there now. It does not appear that better deals were available had the Twins waited. Another aspect I wanted to look at is what would it take to get a Zack Wheeler type prospect at the trade deadline. I am not sure any Wheeler's were traded this year. The best of the pitching prospects also come with some concerns. Jacob Turner - Entered the season an A- prospect but his arm troubles and K rate are concerns. It took Anibal Sanchez to get him. The Twins don't have anyone like Sanchez to trade so this was not a possibility. Nate Eovaldi - Not Zack Wheeler but a B pitching prospect. It took Hanley Ramirez. John Hellweg and Ariel Pena - These are the pitchers in the Zach Grienke deal. B-/C+ prospects. Hellweg has the arm but lacks in performance. Born in 1988, he is old for a top prospect just hitting AA. Arodys Vizcaíno - Great prospect and huge injury concerns. Second arm injury leads him to Tommy John surgery. I would love for the Twins to have had the opportunity to roll the dice with him. However, I don't think Liriano has near the value of Maholm when you look at performance and next year's contract situation. Maybe a deal of Span and Liriano could brought Arodys Vizcaíno, but that is a lot to give up for such an injury risk. It is very likely that he will return as a reliever. Kyle Hendricks - Wrote about him above. A command and control pitcher from Dartmouth. It took Dempster to get him. J.C. Sulbaran - Noteworthy because this is the guy the Reds were willing to deal. Low 90s fastball curve and changeup. He is in AA this year and continues to struggle with control. Strikeout numbers look good. His upside made him an interesting prospect entering the season (BBA #12 Reds, Sickels C+). If Sulbaran was the key offering from the Reds in a Span deal, would you have traded Span. We do know that these starting pitchers were available since they were ultimately moved. Which pitcher could the Twins have acquired? I think they could have acquired Sulbaran in a deal for Span. They would have received other pieces but I think this is the best starting prospect the Reds were willing to part with. How about Vizcaino? Is Liriano close enough to Maholm that they could see Liriano meeting their needs? Certainly not alone. Would a package of Span and Liriano been enough? Maybe. But that's a lot to give up for an injured Vizcaino with concerns about whether he will hold up as a starter. Starting pitching prospects have always carried the most value. In the context of the new CBA, acquiring them at the trade deadline has become more difficult. The Twins best hope is to find and develop a few more Diamonds among the C prospects available. No easy task.

Hopefully the Twins understand sample size and will not give weight to whatever performance Valencia gives in the next week or two. If they use him wisely, he will only appear against lefties which will further decrease the sample. As for any team interested, his performance on the field 2010-2012 will carry the weight.

I agree. It certainly seems necessary this weekend after the burden handed the pen by Blackburn and Hendriks. I also think that some team will better figure out how to use their pitching staff. I recall the 1969 Twins and a 10 man staff. Tom Tischinski was the 3rd catcher on the team. After playing the full season in the majors, he ended the season with 56 plate appearance and 12 starts. They had the left/right pinch hitting tandem of Charlie Manuel and Rick Renick. Both entered games more often from the bench. Frank Quilici was primarily a defensive sub for Harmon Killebrew at 3B. George Mitterwald was the back up catcher starting mostly lefties in a platoon with John Roseboro. There was still a spot on the bench and role for Bob Allison finishing his career and a young Graig Nettles. Imagine the options for Billy Martin with this 7 man bench. Weaver and Stengel were often credited with their ability to build successful platoon combinations. That's a lot easier to do when your carrying a bench with 7 players.

Great report. The Valencia possibility is an interesting one. In the defense of the Dodgers trade of Santana for Blake, Baseball America had ranked Santana the Dodger organization number 25 prospect entering the season. He was having a great half season in the hitting rich California League, but reports of the trade at the time did not portray him as a top prospect in baseball. Let's hope the Twins can find a gem like Santana hidden deep in the list of an organization's prospects.

I enjoyed your report. It is a fun event.

Thanks Parker. I would love to see the Twinscentric group begin debate on the blueprint for 2013. To me, Doumit is the first winter free agent signing and the first step Terry Ryan has made in his blueprint for 2013. If trading Span is in your blueprint, how do you fill RF? Would you pick up options on Baker or Capps? Do you assume the same budget going into 2013? Doumit would not have been part of my blueprint at this point. I would go for pitching and see what was left to fill out the bench. It is not a knock on Doumit. I think his value exceeds the 0.0 WAR assigned to him by Baseball Reference. I don't want to argue that he is worth the contract. I do argue that the Twins have greater needs than catcher.

The Twins are a team of many needs. Doumit fills the need of back up catcher and emergency RF. He hits well for a catcher, but at best adequately for a DH or RF. He doesn't defend well at either spot. As he declines, his best role will be back up catcher and pinch hitter. He will do that job well. He will be a good guy in the club house. Essentially by signing him now, they have begun the winter process of rebuilding this team through free agency. Is this the best first step? Is this one of the key needs to be addressed? Is he a major part of your off season blueprint? Another team might have chosen a different direction. They might have tried to fill this need by using Butera and Parmelee. This might free a few million more to use towards overpaying a free agent pitcher or middle infielder. They might have chosen to fill out the bench from the free agent bargain bin at catcher taking what is left as spring approaches. Worst case, Butera and Herrmann are around. Go back to last winter. Why not take money spent on Doumit, Carroll and Marquis and try to sign Edwin Jackson instead? The other spots would need to be filled with near league minimum guys. Yes, we would be left with Alexi Casilla playing more. We might get to see what Parmelee can do with playing time. Maybe Sean Burroughs would still be on the bench. Butera would have more at bats or we could have signed a back up option like Dioner Navarro. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit are great guys to have in the clubhouse. They have value. They are also the kinds of respectable players you always find on losing teams. The Twins may have the best back up catcher in baseball going into 2013. I simply question whether this should have been the Twins top priority.

The Twins are a team of many needs. Doumit fills the need of back up catcher and emergency RF. He hits well for a catcher, but at best adequately for a DH or RF. He doesn't defend well at either spot. As he declines, his best role will be back up catcher and pinch hitter. He will do that job well. He will be a good guy in the club house. Essentially by signing him now, they have begun the winter process of rebuilding this team through free agency. Is this the best first step? Is this one of the key needs to be addressed? Is he a major part of your off season blueprint? Another team might have chosen a different direction. They might have tried to fill this need by using Butera and Parmelee. This might free a few million more to use towards overpaying a free agent pitcher or middle infielder. They might have chosen to fill out the bench from the free agent bargain bin at catcher taking what is left as spring approaches. Worst case, Butera and Herrmann are around. Go back to last winter. Why not take money spent on Doumit, Carroll and Marquis and try to sign Edwin Jackson instead? The other spots would need to be filled with near league minimum guys. Yes, we would be left with Alexi Casilla playing more. We might get to see what Parmelee can do with playing time. Maybe Sean Burroughs would still be on the bench. Butera would have more at bats or we could have signed a back up option like Dioner Navarro. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit are great guys to have in the clubhouse. They have value. They are also the kinds of respectable players you always find on losing teams. The Twins may have the best back up catcher in baseball going into 2013. I simply question whether this should have been the Twins top priority.

I really appreciate the writing team that faithfully keeps us informed of the minor league games. I look forward to reading this article every morning.

Good analysis. Great book. Always wondered if the run scoring context alters the table. The context would not only include era and park but also pitcher and ability of on deck batter and successive batters I suspect that the payoff of stealing the base increases as the run scoring context decreases.

I think if you looked at Kansas City you would see that it was only recently that they went young. They built a cycle of mediocrity around the signing of players like 36 year old middle infielder Mark Grudzielanek. Look at their 2006 roster and decisions. Looks like the blue print Ryan is following. I don 't want the Twins to follow the same path.

Age is a huge consideration. Very few players have significant careers when the reach the 1000 plate appearance threshold after their age 26 season (July 1 age of given season). Any player who is in the age 24 season needs to be on track towards getting significant playing time by next year. A players best years center 26-29. A team should want those years to be in the majors and not adjusting to the majors. If they are called up after the super two deadline at age 24, the arbitration should not be a consideration. They will be under team control through their prime. The clock is not a factor for these players. These players are old enough to meet that threshold Diamond, 25 Slama, 28 Dozier, 25 Benson, 24 If they are called up after super 2 is not a possibility, they will not be eligible for arbitration for 3 more seasons. None of them is a super prospect. If the biggest problem the Twins have is that they will be due a huge salary as they near or pass 30, they will have been a very productive player by then. Guerra should be added to the list also. Though he is younger, he will be out of options next year and the Twins will better be able to decide if he is part of the bullpen solution. Herrmann is also 24. However, he is learning to catch. Your second point about development cited Gomez who came up at age 21 and had 600+ plate appearances at age 22. Young came up at 20 and had 600+ plate appearances at 21. I agree with your point and wouldn't suggest that Sano or similar should be promoted to the majors soon. The Harper/Trout comment also fits Sano but not the above list. Any player 24+ years old has had years of instruction and teaching. It is time to see if they can adjust to the major league level. There will be growing pains. The Twins can afford to suffer through those pains the second half of this year.

The few assets they should be willing to trade are decline phase players still playing well. Willingham and Morneau may be the only two chips that can return real starting pitching prospects. There are possible LF and DH solutions in the minors for next year. There are no starting pitching solutions. Those positions are also easier to acquire in free agents. Ticket sales will be down.

I agree, the Twins can not expect anything back for Pavano, Marquis and Carroll. Given their current level of play, they all have contracts that exceed their value. If they can get a team to take the contract. Great. If they include a minor leaguer similar to those the Twins received for Delmon. Better. I suggest that the Twins invest the playing time in players who could be part of the solution... even if it leads to additional losses in 2012.

Guerra moved to AAA today. Let's see him in July also.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

This Twins team is not a playoff team. That shouldn't be a surprise. The over under 73 wins looks generous now. They are not 15 million dollars or a serviceable reliever away from 90 wins. At some point this season it will be time to invest playing time in the future in spite of the growing pains. As I chose a date to put in the headline, I tried to account for the "Super Two" arbitration deadline. There will be some players with 2+ years of service time that will be eligible for arbitration following the 2014 season. The deadline is always a moving target. This year it is harder to project since the threshold changed from 17% to 22% in the new CBA. It probably has shifted from June to sometime in July... hence the arbitrary July 4 date above. I would like to see the Twins invest playing time in the future. My roster... Starters Hendriks, Blackburn, Liriano, Diamond, Swarzak Bullpen, Capps, Perkins, Burton, Slama, Waldrop, Burnett, Duensing Catcher Mauer, Doumit Infield Morneau, Parmelee, Plouffe, Valencia, Dozier, Casilla Outfield Willingham, Span, Benson, Revere, Thomas Who's out? Burroughs, Gray, Maloney can be outrighted Pavano, Marquis, and Carroll can be traded. We would get very little in return. I was tempted to add Capps to this list and add Guerra to the roster. Guerra certainly needs to get to AAA soon. The Twins should seriously listen to offers for Liriano, Willingham, Doumit and Morneau. The roster as constructed is short on middle infielders and has too many outfielders. Thomas can easily join the outright list . The Twins will win fewer games with this roster. In return, we may get some answers to questions for 2013. Can Dozier provide at least average defense at the SS position? If not, we need to address SS in the winter and move him to 2B. Does Plouffe's bat play well anywhere? I don't think it plays well at corner OF. I would like to see him at 2B and 3B. Probably not going to work either. This is the year to find out. How will Benson adjust to major league pitching? He won't solve it this year. He will probably need 1000 PA's before he can be counted on with the bat. Let's start banking some of the 1000 this year. Can we find hope in the starting rotation? I can't see any solutions. I don't think Diamond is a solution and maybe another name will surface by July. I do think Pavano and Marquis have little left. Moving them now means I won't see them in 2013. The bullpen is a mess too. Too early to tell which if any will be valuable members of a 2013 pen. I arbitrarily chose Burton to hang around. Maybe by July someone will rise from the cast offs they signed this winter. Most importantly, I do not want to enter the off season wondering if Dozier can play SS. I want to know if Plouffe has value to a major league team. I want to see if there is any piece to a starting rotation that we can count on next year. I want some younger players to start taking their major league lumps soon.

Hughes is more similar to Jeff Baker than Dan Uggla. There aren't very many teams that have a player like Hughes on the bench. I think he will remain with the Twins and get another chance. If not, I hope to see him find more success in his next window of opportunity than he was able to produce in last year's window.

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?

I am excited to see Chris Parmelee this year. I look forward to seeing Joe Benson and Brian Dozier. I want to see how Trevor Plouffe and Ben Revere progress. I also know they are not ready. At some point this season someone will have written, they called him up to soon because they weren't ready. The reality is that very few are ready. Most cannot get ready for the majors without struggle at the level first. So expect the struggle. Be patient. The plate appearances invested this year will likely have a pay off down the road. Recall how some previous Twins grew towards all star level and seasons worthy of MVP votes. Justin Morneau was 24 in his first full season as a Twin. He had a slash line of 239/304/437 that season with an OPS+ of 93. He had playing time the previous two seasons and was had better results at 23 and weaker results at 22. It is a credit to the Twins and Gardenhire that they stuck with him through that season as a 24 year old. Torii Hunter received significant playing time at age 23 and 24 combining for 780 plate appearances. His slash line over those two seasons was 267/313/393 with an OPS+ of 76. His defense probably kept him in the lineup but with the investment in at bats he became a very good hitter. The Twins patience paid off. Michael Cuddyer did not have an OPS+ > 100 season until age 27. What was the Twins investment? Parts of 5 playing seasons. Trying him at 3B and 2B before he found a home in RF. 1109 plate appearances with a slash line of 260/330/428 and an OPS+ of 97. Joe Mauer has never had a season with an OPS+ of below 100. He was an all star and received MVP votes at age 23. The Twins didn't need to invest at bats in him. They did invest a good deal of their budget. You expect guys drafted at the top of the first round to be ready. Jason Kubel qualifies to make the list receiving MVP votes in 2009. He had the knee injury which certainly impacted his 24 year old slash line of 241/279/386 with an OPS+ of 72 at age 24. It is possible one of our young players will have a start like this. It doesn't mean that they will not be productive major league players. Denard Span has not been an all star or receive MVP votes but he is worthy of mention. His was very good in his rookie year with an OPS+ of 122 and followed it up with an OPS+ of 114. Delmon Young is another guy drafted at the top of the first round. Not sure he should be on this list since I was looking for guys that came up with the Twins. Like Mauer, he came up very young and experienced some success. Unlike Mauer, he never really progressed and through age 25 and almost 3000 plate appearances sits at a career OPS+ of 100. When mixed with his fielding, he has not been a useful player most seasons. He did have one outstanding 2010 season. The Rays assessed that he was one player not worthy of investing in. The Rays did benefit from the Twins investment in Jason Bartlett. He was an all star and received MVP votes with them. As a Twins through age 26 and parts of three seasons, he had an OPS+ of 86 (278/342/364) in 572 plate appearances. He had a small window of success and wasn't a full time starter until age 27. What's the point? - We need to be patient and expect to see below league average performance from our young players. Below average performance this year does not mean they can not attain all star level. - In order to be "ready" to contribute, major league at bats must be invested. Some thoughts on players... This is a key year for Valencia. Will he take a step up towards being recognized among the better 3B's in the AL? Dozier reminds me of Bartlett. I don't think the Twins threw Bartlett out their early enough. I hope Dozier is a regular by June 1. Benson (and Hicks) have some parallels to Hunter. We may need to be particularly patient with their progress and hopefully the defense will offset inconsistent offense when they get their chance. Not sure about Plouffe. Some parallels to Cuddyer but not near the performance in the minor leagues. Is he worthy of investment? Chris Parmelee has all of our hopes up. Not sure if he parallels well with anyone (maybe Kubel). It could be 2014 before we know if he can be among the better RF's or 1B's in the AL. Are you willing to wait?