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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    They have to develop their own pitching to win. Mejia and Gibson are relatively inexpensive solutions for the 4th and 5th spots with some upside. Steamer projections have that pair at 3.4 fWAR. For comparison, a Lynn and Cobb pairing project for 3.0 fWAR by steamer. I don’t accept that Mejia and Gibson will outperform Cobb and Lynn next year but it is possible and gets more likely in each successive year. The Twins must develop their own league average pitching to win. They can’t keep signing free agents to take 3 or more rotation spots. They need to put their money or prospects towards acquiring top of the rotation pitching.
  2. jorgenswest
    I look forward to when the Twins don’t have a spot for a Lynn. They can’t win without developing their own pitching and making significant commitments to 60% of a rotation in Santana, Nolasco and Hughes dudnt get them closer. How many good years out of the 14 will they get from those three. So far they have 3 of 11 good seasons and a lot of bad ones.
  3. jorgenswest
    There are 15 catchers in the hall of fame. Mauer is above the median of that group.
  4. jorgenswest
    It isn’t just the 2B piece. Players that have the “old player skills” of power, strikeouts and walks tend to decline earlier. In Kinsler’s 12 season he has exceeded 100 strikeouts just once. Everyone of Dozier’s full seasons have more strikeouts that any of Kinsler’s seasons. Kinsler had much more space to decline from his 12% K rate. Dozier starts at 20%.
  5. jorgenswest
    If that were the standard few catchers would make it. Johnny Bench hits only two on the five predictors and he is the top ranked catcher. Mauer ranks as the number 7 catcher.
  6. jorgenswest
    By BR similarity, Dan Uggla is not only the best comp for Dozier at age 30 but also by career through age 30. https://www.sbnation.com/2011/6/22/2235737/braves-dan-uggla-news-2011-season-31-year-old-second-basemen
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Dozier will age well. I would pass on any significant extension. At some point before the end of his next contract he will be a league average hitter playing 1B. Let some other team pay for his decline.
  8. jorgenswest
    We disagree. Next year’s work will be made much easier if passing means that they find someone from within that is cost controlled and approaching league average. All of a sudden instead of committing 16-20 million a year to a pitcher declining from league average, they have a very inexpensive pitcher on the other end of the career projection and much more money in the budget to spend on that pitcher next winter. Wouldn’t that make it easier? If they believe in the young group that has just entered AAA, it might be a smart risk to bank on one of them stepping forward rather than give a 4 year contract to a second or third tier free agent. The long term success of the Twins relies on them developing and acquiring cost controlled starting pitching.
  9. jorgenswest
    Not nearly as likely. Look at recent large contracts for pitchers in Cueto, Samardzija, Sanchez and Zimmerman. All had very significant drop offs in year 2 of the contract. If 2019 is the target to truly contend rather than be competitive then it is far better to sign that pitcher next off season. In a blog 3 years ago when we could still use tables I listed several signings and how they aged through their 4 year contracts. Year 1 was so much better overall than years 2, 3 and 4.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Rays will get a lot of interest in Archer. Another team will offer a more valuable player than Sano to headline that deal.
  11. jorgenswest
    Where does Sano rank now as a trade chip?
  12. jorgenswest
    Samardzija had 3/60 left on his deal with no buy out of the last year. Cueto has 5/110 left on his deal though it could be 4/93 if they buy out the last year. This does point out how crippling it can be to sign decline phase starters to long contracts. The Tigers are stuck with the contracts of Sanchez and Zimmerman. It would be hard to argue that either Lynn or Cobb have more upside than any of these 4 at the time they signed their deals for 80 million or more. Lynn and Cobb just don’t have a lot of space to decline. Darvish can decline and still be useful but the cost is enormous. The only road to long term success is to develop enough cost controlled pitching from within the system so that you don’t need to fill your rotation with free agants like Santana, Nolasco and Hughes or worse. That is a long road made longer as our previous front office created a huge void.
  13. jorgenswest
    I hope we see the jump. If not, he still is a reliable back end reliever with options to move back and forth from AAA as needed.
  14. jorgenswest
    This proposal has been published a few places (recently SI). East: Atlanta, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Miami, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington North: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, Montreal, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Toronto Midwest: Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Colorado, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas West: Anaheim, Arizona, Los Angeles, Oakland, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco and Seattle I hate it for the Twins. They need to be in the Midwest. Yours is much better.
  15. jorgenswest
    They really need Sano at 3B next year. Looking and planning beyond next year isn’t helpful. There are too many variables in the rest of the infield. How will Polanco and Gordon continue to develop? Is either a SS long term? How will the resolve the expiring contracts of Dozier, Mauer and Escobar?
  16. jorgenswest
    2013-2014 is a long time ago to try to project a pitcher’s 2018-2021. I wonder how much weight the Twins should give those seasons. It isn’t about fairness to Cobb. His significant injury shouldn’t be a positive in projecting forward. You really only have his 2017 that is useful. As for Lynn, entering 2017 his FIP and ERA were essentially identical over his career previous to the injury. His xFIP was greater than his ERA but not significantly greater. It was 2017 data that caused the imbalance. Since it was 2017, an organization has to at least wonder whether his skill level post injury is closer to his ERA or peripherals. Teams going beyond 4/50 are really gambling that ERA is the better projector for the future. That isn’t usually the case.
  17. jorgenswest
    From 2015-2017 Lance Lynn has an xFIP of 4.34 and Alex Cobb has an xFIP of 4.26. Kyle Gibson has an xFIP of 4.24 from 2015-2017. Proceed with caution particularly on Lance Lynn who throws mostly fastballs. He can’t afford any decline in velocity as he ages through this contract.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think he would boot both Grossman and Vargas off the roster. Vargas is still around because he had an option. Without that option, he would have been removed as soon as they needed the 13th pitcher. This year they might start with a bench plus DH of Garver, Escobar, Adrianza, Napoli and Grossman (or Vargas). Who gets DFA’d when a 13th pitcher is needed? They really need one player with options who can easily be moved to AAA when pitching is needed. The two best candidates are Granite and Garver. If it is Garver, they would be counting on his bat helping against lefties playing a similar role as envisioned for Napoli. Resigning Gimenez would be part of this plan. If it is Granite, a Napoli signing would be at the cost of Grossman and Vargas.
  19. jorgenswest
    Awesome article. Thanks. Duke is certainly worth the small contract and left handed relief depth was needed. You left me more encouraged that Duke has something to contribute.
  20. jorgenswest
    Your mean spirited characterization of Mauer certainly hints at your bias. Why is the celery stuff necessary? It distracts from the quality of your argument. Banks and Mauer were certainly different hitters. The MVPs might matter but voters might realize that there were 8 teams in the NL in Ernie's prime and 14 teams in the AL in Joe’s prime. Ernie never once played in the post season. Though a team thing, it must have weighed on voters. Relative to their rank at their original position, there is little to distinguish them. Joe still needs to keep putting up league average years through about age 37 to match the longevity of Banks.
  21. jorgenswest
    Better received? My guess is the 10 pages are a handful of people quickly reacting back and forth repeating the same conversation seen in many threads. In short order they aren’t responding to the post but rather reacting to each other. That ongoing debate is enticing and draws me in but not what brings me to TD. I come here for the thoughtful articles. They are often followed by thoughtful responses to the original post that are fewer in number.
  22. jorgenswest
    Reading through I am surprised by the concern of a forum being shut down for breaking news. Seems like a simple solution though. Don’t shut the thread down. Keep both threads. Put a link in the thread inviting readers to go to the article without closing the thread. Take the time to write a good article and trust the conversation will flow that direction.
  23. jorgenswest
    Sickels said there was a huge amount of C+ in the system starting around 13. The C+ really don’t have a lot of value now towards adding a good starting pitcher. Hopefully several of the C+ prospects have a really good first half and they will be in a better position to make mid season trades. It is incredibly critical that they develop the talent they have in the minors better than most. It is the only route to sustained success.
  24. jorgenswest
    If Sano is a platoon DH that means Escobar is half the platoon. Over his career he has hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching. Last year that wasn’t the case but it would be very unwise to use splits in a single season. The sample is just far too small against left handed pitchers. If Escobar is half the platoon, he will help more batting right handed. Napoli doesn’t help at all. Any gain they might see they simply lose when Escobar is playing mostly against right handed pitching. If that is the plan, Napoli is a horrible fit.
  25. jorgenswest
    I have 52 blog entries. It appears my last was one year ago. There were 3 in 2016. All of the rest from 2015 and before. Why? I am not sure. I certainly put much more thought, research and time into a blog entry than a response in forum. Honestly in short order any thoughtful blog entry becomes another of the infinitely repeated forum conversations where it is clear by the second page that the commenters probably haven’t read or thought about the original blog entry and are simply reacting to a comment within. I came here as a regular reader of Parker and Seth. There was great and thoughtful content written. The community in the forums took over. Thoughtful researched content shifted to fun reactionary banter. I enjoy the debate (though I survive with 30some on my ignore list). I am not sure that was the vision of Twins Daily but you have a great active community here. It just doesn’t seem to be the place for the thoughtful researched content. I appreciate the community and the place to debate about the Twins. Thank you.
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