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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Seems like this group would have been key advisors on the players they acquired or opted against acquiring when they traded 11 players at the deadline. Could performance at their main responsibility of scouting professional players factored into the decision? Do the Twins have some buyer’s remorse on any of them? Maybe they voiced opposition to some of the deals. We won’t know but I don’t think it is dollars. The money just isn’t enough in the context of the budget. To bring value this group needs to identify players with a future value greater than perceived by their team as well as greater than the varied public services rank of the player. Have they been bringing that value? Somehow the Twins found Joe Ryan and Willi Castro. Did the push for either of them come from one of the 4 guys they let go? If so, they will missed.
  2. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the topic. I don’t need yet another thread arguing whether they will spend. I appreciating speculating the possibilities about what they might add if they spend. There are others that will see this discussion as a waste of their time and avoid it. A middle of the order everyday bat like Naylor is a need. A few good bats will be moved in trade. If they don’t get Naylor they certainly can use their prospect capital to win one of those trades. Add that middle of the order bat and then add arms to the bullpen. That would be my direction. I hope there are no team friendly one year free agent deals for position players.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins traded away four positional starters at the deadline. They have been without their starting catcher for a good part of September. I wondered how the new bats stepped up. Together they have a collective wRC+ of a league average 100. They are 7th in the AL in runs scored with Detroit the only team in the central above them with 5 more since the deadline.
  4. jorgenswest
    What are the main responsibilities of the pro scouting department? Scouting teams in advance of an upcoming series? Advising on potential acquisitions in deadline or off season deals? Advising on free agent pick ups including minor league and rule 5 acquisitions? Where will those responsibilities be assigned now? I read both the Twins article as well as the Cubs from a year ago and it isn’t clear to me what holes will be created. Certainly the dismissing of four talented and experienced voices in the room will be a loss.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thanks for putting a spotlight on these games. I don’t care what number starter he is given. Do teams assign starters a number or is that a creation of the media? I do care whether the starter shows qualities of. Pitcher that I would want to start a playoff game. Those 5 games can’t be merely luck. I can for the first time imagine Woods Richardson taking another step next year towards being a pitcher they would start in the playoffs.
  6. jorgenswest
    He might be going back but he is hitting the ball to the opposite field less and hitting more line drives than he was last year or in the minors with Toronto. Like Clemens he has increased his bat speed this year. I suspect that bat speed wasn’t something he returned to but rather something new he has added. I don’t have inside knowledge but launch angle may have been something that the Twins tried to change. If true, that didn’t work. He kept working though and hopefully made the tweak necessary to be a major league starter.
  7. jorgenswest
    Clemens was born in 1996. Larnach and Wallner 1997. The span between the three is about a year and a half. Rooker was just less than half year younger than Clemens when he got his first shot. He was good but not great that year with 2.1 WAR over a full season and a xwOBA of .343. That is pretty similar to Clemens. Clemens WAR is less but that is weighted by playing time. Rooker had his real breakout in his second full season. Wallner isn’t going to play 1B. I am certain it has been tried in college or summer league or the minors and wasn’t good enough to put in the game. There are no easy positions on the diamond. All positions take talent and skill. He fits best as a starting RF or DH. The challenge with Wallner is left handed starters. He isn’t very helpful on the bench when a lefty starts. He isn’t going to pinch run. He isn’t going to be a defensive sub. He isn’t the hitter you want pinch hitting with runners in scoring position and you need a ball in play. He hasn’t been successful coming in as a sub over his career with a .362 OPS. The challenge with Clemens is you have to believe that this season is not an outlier. He is much more helpful off the bench with his average or better defense at multiple positions. He is also 4th in the team in BSR. Like Wallner he is prone to long slumps as a hitter. The challenge with Larnach is that he has had enough plate appearances to believe that he isn’t going to be better. He isn’t that helpful off the bench either but probably a better option than Wallner to put the ball in play with a runner in scoring position. Clemens and Wallner would both be in my roster next year. I would not plan to tender Larnach and try to find a trade partner with a similar player at catcher, reliever or middle infield that might benefit from a fresh start.
  8. jorgenswest
    Slash stats need large samples. A full season isn’t enough. It would be tremendously foolish to make decisions based on a partial season of slash stats. Even more foolish to throw out the best games or worst games. All of that doesn’t make mathematical sense. Instead of in season slash stats I think Statcast offer a better picture of how a player has hit the ball with their expected stats. Clemens and Keaschall are tied for third on the Twins behind Martin and Buxton by xwOBA. Clemens ranks 16th among first basemen with over 300 PAs. 1B - AL Central xwOBA .347 Clemens (16) .346 Torkelson (17) .345 Pasquantino (18) .342 Manzardo (20) .319 Vargas (30) I suppose we can ignore the quality of his contact this year. We can ignore how he started with the Twins. We can ignore his best game. Maybe that was all luck.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t see a reluctance to use him. He was in the organization a little over a month before getting in a major league game. In that time he was the primary catcher in St. Paul. Gasper did start 6 times at catcher over that span but it was Jeffers almost every day. Wouldn’t it have been easier to evaluate him playing routinely in AAA rather than getting the 6 of 27 that Gasper was given after Vazquez was out? Pereda has 6 of 10 starts since Jeffers went down. That seems to be the right mix as he gets to know the pitchers.
  10. jorgenswest
    Jhonny Pereda getting a lot of credit from Woods Richardson on the game he called. They may have found a major league catcher.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is the game in mlb tv?
  12. jorgenswest
    Slash stats need such a large sample that I appreciate the statcast expected stats that are based on quality of contact. I think they are a better predictor of future success for those with a small sample in their career. The Twins top four in xwOBA .388 Martin .369 Buxton .347 Clemens .344 Keaschall Clemens ranks 16th in MLB among those that play 1B with over 300 PAs. He is at least an average defender. Only Alvarez has a better xwOBA than Martin in LF. Martin has a positive DRS and OAA in LF. I don’t think they have a better option other than to build around these four players. Three will be very inexpensive. I also think they need to bet on other inexpensive players in Wallner, Lewis and Lee. Betting on inexperienced players to take a step forward was crucial in the 26 win improvement from 2016 to 2017. They may lose the bet but it is time to bet on the player’s in the system.
  13. jorgenswest
    Does the catcher math change if they implement the challenge ABS system? Maybe there is a once good prospect catcher out there that hasn’t been a good framer. Luis Campusano comes to mind. If Larnach isn’t in the plans than maybe they go for a swap or maybe Campusano is removed from the 40. I wouldn’t devote significant resources towards the back up catcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    That doesn’t stop the Twins from exchanging some of the 14 position players currently rostered.
  15. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins have found their left fielder. Austin Martin has a 2 OAA and 3 DRS in 172 innings. His actual slash stats are very good and his expected stats even better.
  16. jorgenswest
    No extra player when rosters are already at 28.
  17. jorgenswest
    I had to look up fall guy, No. He won’t be the fall guy.
  18. jorgenswest
    The stat lines are showing different things. He is doing damage against right handed pitching once the lefty leaves the game. Batting at the bottom of the order he probably sees that lefty twice at most. He is also doing damage as a pinch hitter. Pinch hitting is harder coming in cold so that is valuable. Larnach for his career also does well in games started by a lefty. Wallner has not done well in games started by lefty. At the end of the day it is the bigger picture of performance that matters. As a Twin Clemens has a better than league average OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher and right handed pitcher. All of samples are small though. It is enough that I would want to see next year. Jeffers is another player that has this odd split. Over his career he has been better in games started by a right handed pitcher than left handed pitcher though the splits are quite the opposite. Jeffers finds his way to make an impact in those games in spite of starting with a platoon disadvantage.
  19. jorgenswest
    Maybe. Experience against major league pitching is also a factor. This is his first season with sustained playing time for the majority of the season. I think he has a better chance of improving than Larnach who is a year younger. He has been helpful when the Twins have faced a lefty handed starter. He has a better than league average OPS of .730 across 7 starts and 8 games off the bench when a lefty has started,
  20. jorgenswest
    Wow that was a fantastic at bat for Clemens in the 9th! How many balls with 3-2 count did he need to foul off until getting one he could attack? Over his career he has positive OAA at 1B, 2B, LF and RF. He also plays 3B adequately enough. He has dominated multiple games this year. I hope all of these players playing for their careers show up this month.
  21. jorgenswest
    Will Mendez get some time at 1B? That is something the Twins have said they want to try with him. Cam Collier is a 1B/3B. So is Amick.
  22. jorgenswest
    I have wondered about his fit in the pen also. I don’t think I would have seen Seth Lugo as a fit in the pen after his two seasons as a starter with the Mets. I think of relievers as pitchers that miss bats. I looked at the top 20 relievers by innings pitched only 4 of them have double digit K/9. Woods Richardson would be in the middle at 8.01 and I think that will tick up in relief. He might help the teams in relief.
  23. jorgenswest
    Outman’s glove is going to need to be very good. The closest comp he can aspire to would have to be Michael A Taylor who has a career OPS of .668 and still has a major leagues innings job.
  24. jorgenswest
    This is not a logjam. They need more logs like Ryan and Lopez.
  25. jorgenswest
    Has it ever been reasonable to believe that Keaschall would play an average 2B? Take a look at all of the second basemen who have enough innings to be qualified this year. They were shortstops. They played it in the minors and some in the majors. There is one player that was drafted as a college 2B and hasn’t played SS in professional ball. Brandon Lowe is a 2B because of his career wRC+ of 124. He has never been below 100 in a season. That more than offsets his career -22 OAA and -24 DRS at 2B. There are two other players I found with some shortstop play yet many second base innings in their careers. Brendan Donovan and Jeff McNeill have been used more at shortstop in the minors and some in the majors than Keaschall but they were not drafted as shortstops. They have a lot of major leagues innings in the outfield as well as 3B and 1B. Teams find a way to get their bat in the game. The Twins need to find a way to get Keaschall’s bat in the game. If he is a below average 2B it will be OK if he can maintain a wRC+ of around 120 like the three unicorns above.
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