Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I will acknowledge that the starting pitching was so much better when Vazquez and Jeffers both returned from injury to finish the season. I would still prefer them to at least make an attempt to solve the problem particularly since they have one year of control left with Jeffers. I see the Pirates with four catchers on their roster to end the season in Davis, Rodriguez, Bart and Flores. The prospect shine has dulled on Rodriguez and Davis. They just acquired Flores in the Bednar deal. I would try to make a trade there. Campusano from the Padres has lost his prospect shine. The Dodgers chose Rortvedt over Rushing for the NLCS and World Series. He has lost some shine. I would go after a prospect who has lost some shine and see if they can turn it around. They tried it with Cartaya last year. Didn’t work out. Try again. Unlike Cartaya the catchers above hit the ball beyond A-Ball. They can also pay more in prospect capital for a catcher like Harry Ford that has a catcher in front of him. I also wonder if there is any data on minor league catchers and their challenge success rate. Find a catcher really skilled at calling challenges.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins can fit a Naylor type bat in the budget. I would argue that signing a good bat for the middle of the lineup helps with the development of the young players. Jenkins is going to see better pitchers in a good bat is up in a batter or two. He will see better pitches if more runners are one base. I don’t think it helps to sign a player in the tiers below Naylor. Players that will take team friendly one year deals. Players that last dominated 3 or more years ago. Players that only hit well on one side of the platoon. If the budget is truly that prohibitive I would prefer one significant signing instead of spreading it on one year deals across a handful of positions.
  3. jorgenswest
    Shouldn’t he have been in your payroll list?
  4. jorgenswest
    What happened to Springer?
  5. jorgenswest
    Last year 15 teams signed free agents to a contract of at least 30 million (in total not AAV). Several signed multiple players at that commitment or much more. Unusually one of the fifteen last year was the A’s. All of the others are the teams we would expect. The Twins this year as they were last year will be among the other fifteen or so. Some of those fifteen will find a way to compete.
  6. jorgenswest
    If I am a once top prospect catcher looking for a fresh start and opportunity Minnesota would be near the top of my list. There is a clear opening at number 2 and a chance to be number 1 if Jeffers is moved at the deadline. Opportunities in the Twins bullpen are vast. There is an opportunity to come here take over the closer role during the season and change a career. It may be an opportunity a former top prospect shortstop or first baseman would take. There are players out there that just need a fresh start and new opportunity to take the next step. Anyone looking for that opportunity should want to come here.
  7. jorgenswest
    How often are teams trading top players with 2 full years of service time? Why are we so anxious to trade Ryan? Do the Brewers and Guardians trade their top pitchers this early? Ryan’s surplus value is more than 2 times greater than it will be a year from now but they will not get offered that value. Let’s be patient.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think Hrbek would have been managed similarly to Kepler. Both were established veterans and really helped on defense. He rarely pinch hit for Kepler.
  9. jorgenswest
    Very true. The only top flight prospect was Skenes,
  10. jorgenswest
    Is it possible he was chosen based on the skills he brings? Perhaps Derek Falvey simply believes he gives them the best chance to win games while developing several inexperienced players.
  11. jorgenswest
    The manager before him had a winning season two seasons earlier. Clint Hurdle also turned the 57 win 2010 Pirate team he took over in 2011 into a team that went to the playoffs three straight seasons (2013-2015). Unrelated but Hurdle is fascinating to me. His previous job was with the Rockies where he took that team to the playoffs in two of the three season before they fired him. He went to the 2007 World Series and lost in the playoffs in 2009. His work and success with the Rockies and Pirates organizations just can’t be understated. That work certainly should not be forgotten.
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder why Shelton would take this job. He must have asked about the Twins plans for Ryan and Lopez in the interview process. He must have asked how they will address the bullpen and first base and catcher. He must have asked about payroll. Terry Francona started his managerial career with four losing seasons in Philadelphia. he was fired after the 2000 season. After three seasons in various roles (assistant GM, bench coach) he accepted 2004 Red Sox job who replaced their manager after losing the ALCS. He chose that job well. I don’t think he gets a third shot if he has a losing stretch with a second club. Shelton chose this job. Why? He would have had a job on a bench or in a front office. If I was told the plan was to reduce payroll by trading Ryan and Lopez this winter I would have ended the interview. This could be strike 2 for him and there isn’t likely a strike 3. If anything, accepting this job is a sign that the Twins are not going to tear this down further. He didn’t need to take the job. He could have been a valuable bench coach and been patient. A opportunity would have come his way. Why did he choose this job?
  13. jorgenswest
    I dont think any of the position players are really part of the discussion. Adding Klein is adding someone they want to be on the 40 all season. There will be a few roster management spots that will rotate through DFA’s players. So maybe 38. How many pitchers should be part of that 38? How many do they have that need that full year 40 spot? How may relievers will they add? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, Woods Richardson, Abel, Bradley, Topa, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, Ohl, Lawyerson and Raya are on the 40. That is already 15 that they reasonably should consider keeping on the 40. They may not keep Topa or Adams but I think that will be to create space for reliever signings. If any of the 15 are removed they are a much easier pick up than a rule 5. They will add Morris, Priellipp and Rojas. We are at 18. Will they add any free agent relievers? Will there be pitcher available with their early rule 5 pick that are more ready to help or have more upside than Klein? Does Klein have more upside than Culpepper or Olivares who are in the same spot? Klein was used in a different role last year. His more frequent 3-4 inning often from the bullpen use led to improved strike out rate. Is his improved strike out rate a result of improved skill or is his change in use a factor. They need to exercise caution with each add to the 40. If they need to DFA them later they risk losing them with fewer restrictions than a rule 5 pick up. I would be surprised if a Twins player is selected in the rule 5 and retained. I think there are several organizations with a lot more depth.
  14. jorgenswest
    Is Shelton a match for a rebuild? He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left? Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet. The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one? Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.
  15. jorgenswest
    I think they have been reasonably aggressive with those three. Chourio and Merrill are in a different tier from those three. There are very few that get a FV60 from Fangraphs. Chourio and Merrill did. The Twins three have not been viewed as that tier prospect by Fangraphs. A little more about the journeys of Merrill and and Chourio… Merrill was drafted in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 987 minor and fall league plate appearances. Chourio was signed in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 1469 minor and foreign league plate appearances. Jenkins was drafted in 2023. He has 854 plate appearances. So far he has reasonably matched Merrill even arriving in AAA faster than Merrill. I would love to see him this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    The 162 games matter. Next season matters. I care more about having a competitive team every year than a contender for the World Series window. The Twins can be a competitive team next year. They need Ryan and Lopez to be competitive. There will come a time to trade them as Burnes was traded but that should be when there is one season of control left. These two years are the sweet spot of Ryan’s contract. He has enough experience to be near his peak. His salary for this year is not prohibitive at all.
  17. jorgenswest
    My answer would have been different following 2019/2020 and even 2023 had they not been right sizing the payroll.. My answer might be different this year if I believed they would be willing to cut loose veterans in May if they are not playing well. That hasn’t been my experience. I would have advocated for Martin over signing Bader last year following the season where Farmer and Margot were rostered all year. If they are going to have a payroll among the bottom 10 they must develop prearb players. Otherwise they will continue in this cycle of mediocrity or worse.
  18. jorgenswest
    It is a small sample but even over his career he has a better OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher. Is it better to be extreme in this split like Wallner (.906 v .464 OPS over career)? Maybe. Just put him on the bench when a lefty starts and keep him there.
  19. jorgenswest
    I join the group that want the Twins to stop signing the one year stop gap free agents. Even the group that would advocate for signing those inexpensive veterans, signing Kiner-Falefa to play him at SS would not be a parallel the signings of Bader and Santana. In every season in which Kiner-Falefa has over 100 innings at SS he has a negative OAA. According to OAA Lee was a better shortstop last year and by wRC+ Lee was the better hitter.
  20. jorgenswest
    I don’t. I wonder how much it matters. I suspect most of the damage was done against right handed pitching. That still seems like a positive thing. The alternative is a line up full of right handed bats that makes it too easy for the starter to get in a rhythm. Larnach will take longer at bats and put the ball in play better than Wallner against a lefty. Situated between two right handed batters he makes it more difficult for that right handed reliever that is going to come in mid game.
  21. jorgenswest
    Maybe. There are a lot more like Povich than Skubal so that is probably true of everyone. It turns out he started against Skubal once and Povich once. He also started against Crochet.
  22. jorgenswest
    Larnach has the odd split. He hit better last year in games started by a left handed pitcher than when right handed pitchers start. His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why? He started 15 of those 25 games so it isn’t just pinch hitting after the lefty starter has been removed. He must bat later in the lineup and see that lefty no more than twice. He then must clean up on the right handed relievers. Random small sample? Maybe but this is true for his career numbers also. He has been helpful and playable in games started by lefties in his career. Wallner does not have this odd split. He has done very poorly in games started by a lefty both last year and his career. A big part of that is his very poor pinch hitting record over his career. He hasn’t been playable in games started by a lefty.
  23. jorgenswest
    What is the definition for a rebuild? Is part of it trading off multiyear assets during the winter? Is it noticeable in a drastic change in the payroll? Is it evident by no free agent signings in the winter? Would that rebuild team have the near youngest average batter and pitcher? Would it start the season with near the highest ratio of pre-arb players? All teams out of it at the deadline are going to trade off expiring and even near expiring assets like Berrios. They are going to trade off big contracts if they can find a taker. I wouldn’t see that as an indicator of a rebuild.
  24. jorgenswest
    It has always been the real job of catchers to receive balls and make them look like strikes. That won’t change next year but I guess there will be a time when that part of a catcher’s job will change with full ABS. Search Johnny Bench and framing and you will see him explain how he would turn his glove to receive pitches in the various outside edges of the strike zone. It is now called framing and once called receiving but it has always been a part of being a catcher. Those nostalgic to the eras of Johnny Bench or Elston Howard should want to keep the skill of receiving a ball part of the game. I am fine with the change but for me it should be all ABS or no ABS. The challenge system is unnecessary here. The result is immediate and it does not need the time for review.
  25. jorgenswest
    There will be new aspects of catcher skill and with only 2 challenges framing will still be critical. Some will be very good at identifying balls that are strikes. Patrick Bailey speaks of the skill to goad hitters into making challenges that will fail. Challenge success rate for catchers in AAA was 56%. My guess is that some will be much better than that and others much worse. I hope Jeffers lands on the plus side. Pitchers and batters were less successful than catchers in challenging pitches.
×
×
  • Create New...