jorgenswest

If I am going to look at one batting measure from last season to help project next season I would look at xwOBA. xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and depending on the type of contact sprint speed. All elements the batter controls. AL Central xwOBA .346 Torkelson .345 Pasquantino .331 Manzardo .327 Vargas The three above .337 France .307 Andujar .311 Lowe I guess France would fit if he doesn’t decline in his 30s. The other two are in the bottom tier of first basemen. The Twins traded for Roden. He has crushed AAA. He has experience at first base. I would give him a shot and maybe there is no need to write this article next year. Maybe it wasn’t needed this year anyway. Clemens had an xwOBA of .341 which fits the AL Central competition pretty well.

I think they need to put the best 12 arms on the major league roster with Adams/Ohl/Laweryson in the 13th spot. I hope they will not be fixed in a role. In a different thread I looked at the starters chosen for the last two All Star games and several had spent time as relievers. Some shifted from reliever to starter midseason. I see 9 arms that were starters in 2025 that are in the majors or reasonably ready for the majors. I would put four in the bullpen. Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Abel and Prielipp all need a spot if they are the top 12 arms. Roster them. Give Raya a shot to win a spot.

My point is that they can wait and still get the 50s for Ryan and should wait. This is also a Twins surplus. No one has more FV45 or better players than the Twins. That doesn’t include guys that were FV50 or better in Roden, Festa, Matthews or Bradley. At some point they are going to need to invest major league time into the guys they have and no team has more. Roden has played 1B. He crushed the ball in the minors. Let’s start with him. They need to develop what they have and Ryan and Lopez are going to helpful to the development of the pitchers this year. Trade them next offseason or even at the deadline of their last year of control.

@Riverbrian 1) I don’t think they can get that elite prospect and I don’t think they got enough for Duran or Varland. If they can get that elite prospect I am in. Those players are moved much less frequently in the last 10 years. I don’t want them to settle for the FV50 group. The Fangraphs curve of future value shapes like this. FV65: 2 FV60: 5 FV55: 16 FV50: 72 FV45: 184 (49 have 45+) I think they can get the next tier in a year or at least at the deadline this year if they are not competing. For Duran they received a 45+ and a 45. I really think they could have received something similar at this deadline. 2) Ryan’s peak is also valuable to them and I believe it is these first two years of arbitration while his salary is very manageable. I really respect the Guardians and Brewers. They keep their players at that peak. Burnes was traded with one year left. Williams was traded with one year left. Hader was 1+ but they traded him in a season they didn’t make the playoffs and Williams was ready for the closer job. The Guardians traded Lindor in his final year of arbitration. They aren’t trading players at their peak. Why should the Twins? Factoring in surplus value Ryan has more than twice as much now as a year from now. They need to retain players at their peak value as the Brewers and Guardians do. In 2023 Ryan wasn’t ready to be that impact playoff pitcher yet. He was last year and is now. They shouldn’t trade that away unless they are blown away with an offer. Let’s not trade it away for some FV50s. The odds are a player at that future value will not be impactful. Even FV55s are questionable. Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis are recent Twins FV55s on the major league roster. Counting playoff impact Duran probably had at least three times as much excess value when he was traded as opposed to being traded after the 2026. Did they get that value? Note: I use Fangraphs for the ease of their data. I also appreciate that they are conservative in their player valuations. It should look like a curve. The number 100 player in the MLB pipeline is an overall 55. I don’t know how deep their FV55s go but it is past 100. That is a future of an above average regular. Those players are in the league and regulars well into their 30s. It isn’t possible we have over 100 of those above average regulars in the pipeline right now. I think MLB has motivation to overhype the prospects. Teams like the Twins need to sell that overhyped prospect to their fan base when they trade away their few valuable assets.

I suggest everyone simply go listen to the press conference and decide for themselves what is most telling.

I just went through last year’s list. One player moved that had two years of service time remaining and in arbitration. The Marlins traded Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies. They received Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd. Caba is currently their 5th ranked prospect and an FV45. Boyd was an FV40 at the time of the trade but he has dropped entirely off the Marlin prospect list. Luzardo started 32 games and went 15-7 for the Phillies. I just don’t see how the Marlins benefitted by trading him with that extra year of service time. The only benefit was the 6.625 million dollar in savings. Teams don’t get value by trading players with two full years of service time. That is why it doesn’t happen very often. It isn’t the Guardians path. It isn’t the Brewers path. It shouldn’t be the Twins path with Ryan.

Is anyone aware of data that shows the success for minor league catchers on their challenge calls? I can find aggregate AAA numbers from 2024. The overall success rate was 49.5%. Hitters were successful 45% of the time. Catchers and pitchers were successful 53.5%. I don’t have the split for that year but my guess it is something around 56% catchers to 41% pitchers which were the spring numbers. It would be really interesting to see individual catcher success rate over their years in the minors. Just the challenge numbers isn’t enough. We also need the on the pitches that were not challenges. How many opportunities will be missed? It is really four buckets challenge/success, challenge/fail, no challenge/missed strike and no challenge/called correctly. Digging deeper in those buckets it would be good to know how many were really close close calls. New catching skills to be measured for 2026. the ability to successfully challenge called balls the ability to make a strike look like a ball trying to get the batter to call for an unsuccessful challenge. the ability to receive a ball well so the umpire calls it a strike and the batter does not challenge. Some catchers are going to be much better at this than others. The range of skill will likely be greater than the framing numbers. I hope the Twins have enough of their analytics staff left to the identify the catchers with challenging skills that are elite.

I will acknowledge that the starting pitching was so much better when Vazquez and Jeffers both returned from injury to finish the season. I would still prefer them to at least make an attempt to solve the problem particularly since they have one year of control left with Jeffers. I see the Pirates with four catchers on their roster to end the season in Davis, Rodriguez, Bart and Flores. The prospect shine has dulled on Rodriguez and Davis. They just acquired Flores in the Bednar deal. I would try to make a trade there. Campusano from the Padres has lost his prospect shine. The Dodgers chose Rortvedt over Rushing for the NLCS and World Series. He has lost some shine. I would go after a prospect who has lost some shine and see if they can turn it around. They tried it with Cartaya last year. Didn’t work out. Try again. Unlike Cartaya the catchers above hit the ball beyond A-Ball. They can also pay more in prospect capital for a catcher like Harry Ford that has a catcher in front of him. I also wonder if there is any data on minor league catchers and their challenge success rate. Find a catcher really skilled at calling challenges.

The Twins can fit a Naylor type bat in the budget. I would argue that signing a good bat for the middle of the lineup helps with the development of the young players. Jenkins is going to see better pitchers in a good bat is up in a batter or two. He will see better pitches if more runners are one base. I don’t think it helps to sign a player in the tiers below Naylor. Players that will take team friendly one year deals. Players that last dominated 3 or more years ago. Players that only hit well on one side of the platoon. If the budget is truly that prohibitive I would prefer one significant signing instead of spreading it on one year deals across a handful of positions.

Shouldn’t he have been in your payroll list?

What happened to Springer?

Last year 15 teams signed free agents to a contract of at least 30 million (in total not AAV). Several signed multiple players at that commitment or much more. Unusually one of the fifteen last year was the A’s. All of the others are the teams we would expect. The Twins this year as they were last year will be among the other fifteen or so. Some of those fifteen will find a way to compete.

If I am a once top prospect catcher looking for a fresh start and opportunity Minnesota would be near the top of my list. There is a clear opening at number 2 and a chance to be number 1 if Jeffers is moved at the deadline. Opportunities in the Twins bullpen are vast. There is an opportunity to come here take over the closer role during the season and change a career. It may be an opportunity a former top prospect shortstop or first baseman would take. There are players out there that just need a fresh start and new opportunity to take the next step. Anyone looking for that opportunity should want to come here.

How often are teams trading top players with 2 full years of service time? Why are we so anxious to trade Ryan? Do the Brewers and Guardians trade their top pitchers this early? Ryan’s surplus value is more than 2 times greater than it will be a year from now but they will not get offered that value. Let’s be patient.

I think Hrbek would have been managed similarly to Kepler. Both were established veterans and really helped on defense. He rarely pinch hit for Kepler.

Very true. The only top flight prospect was Skenes,

Is it possible he was chosen based on the skills he brings? Perhaps Derek Falvey simply believes he gives them the best chance to win games while developing several inexperienced players.

The manager before him had a winning season two seasons earlier. Clint Hurdle also turned the 57 win 2010 Pirate team he took over in 2011 into a team that went to the playoffs three straight seasons (2013-2015). Unrelated but Hurdle is fascinating to me. His previous job was with the Rockies where he took that team to the playoffs in two of the three season before they fired him. He went to the 2007 World Series and lost in the playoffs in 2009. His work and success with the Rockies and Pirates organizations just can’t be understated. That work certainly should not be forgotten.

I wonder why Shelton would take this job. He must have asked about the Twins plans for Ryan and Lopez in the interview process. He must have asked how they will address the bullpen and first base and catcher. He must have asked about payroll. Terry Francona started his managerial career with four losing seasons in Philadelphia. he was fired after the 2000 season. After three seasons in various roles (assistant GM, bench coach) he accepted 2004 Red Sox job who replaced their manager after losing the ALCS. He chose that job well. I don’t think he gets a third shot if he has a losing stretch with a second club. Shelton chose this job. Why? He would have had a job on a bench or in a front office. If I was told the plan was to reduce payroll by trading Ryan and Lopez this winter I would have ended the interview. This could be strike 2 for him and there isn’t likely a strike 3. If anything, accepting this job is a sign that the Twins are not going to tear this down further. He didn’t need to take the job. He could have been a valuable bench coach and been patient. A opportunity would have come his way. Why did he choose this job?

I dont think any of the position players are really part of the discussion. Adding Klein is adding someone they want to be on the 40 all season. There will be a few roster management spots that will rotate through DFA’s players. So maybe 38. How many pitchers should be part of that 38? How many do they have that need that full year 40 spot? How may relievers will they add? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, Woods Richardson, Abel, Bradley, Topa, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, Ohl, Lawyerson and Raya are on the 40. That is already 15 that they reasonably should consider keeping on the 40. They may not keep Topa or Adams but I think that will be to create space for reliever signings. If any of the 15 are removed they are a much easier pick up than a rule 5. They will add Morris, Priellipp and Rojas. We are at 18. Will they add any free agent relievers? Will there be pitcher available with their early rule 5 pick that are more ready to help or have more upside than Klein? Does Klein have more upside than Culpepper or Olivares who are in the same spot? Klein was used in a different role last year. His more frequent 3-4 inning often from the bullpen use led to improved strike out rate. Is his improved strike out rate a result of improved skill or is his change in use a factor. They need to exercise caution with each add to the 40. If they need to DFA them later they risk losing them with fewer restrictions than a rule 5 pick up. I would be surprised if a Twins player is selected in the rule 5 and retained. I think there are several organizations with a lot more depth.

Is Shelton a match for a rebuild? He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left? Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet. The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one? Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.

I think they have been reasonably aggressive with those three. Chourio and Merrill are in a different tier from those three. There are very few that get a FV60 from Fangraphs. Chourio and Merrill did. The Twins three have not been viewed as that tier prospect by Fangraphs. A little more about the journeys of Merrill and and Chourio… Merrill was drafted in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 987 minor and fall league plate appearances. Chourio was signed in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 1469 minor and foreign league plate appearances. Jenkins was drafted in 2023. He has 854 plate appearances. So far he has reasonably matched Merrill even arriving in AAA faster than Merrill. I would love to see him this year.

The 162 games matter. Next season matters. I care more about having a competitive team every year than a contender for the World Series window. The Twins can be a competitive team next year. They need Ryan and Lopez to be competitive. There will come a time to trade them as Burnes was traded but that should be when there is one season of control left. These two years are the sweet spot of Ryan’s contract. He has enough experience to be near his peak. His salary for this year is not prohibitive at all.

My answer would have been different following 2019/2020 and even 2023 had they not been right sizing the payroll.. My answer might be different this year if I believed they would be willing to cut loose veterans in May if they are not playing well. That hasn’t been my experience. I would have advocated for Martin over signing Bader last year following the season where Farmer and Margot were rostered all year. If they are going to have a payroll among the bottom 10 they must develop prearb players. Otherwise they will continue in this cycle of mediocrity or worse.

It is a small sample but even over his career he has a better OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher. Is it better to be extreme in this split like Wallner (.906 v .464 OPS over career)? Maybe. Just put him on the bench when a lefty starts and keep him there.