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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Do you value that more than the number of young players on the roster who have graduated from prospect status?
  2. jorgenswest
    Why is farm system rank a factor? Is there a reliable relationship between farm system rank and future success? I think it would be far better to look at 25 and under major league plate appearances and innings. Throw top flight prospects into the mix after that. A 23 year old in the majors has more value than a 23 year old deemed not ready by their team in the minors. The Nationals ranked first with 3632 plate appearances by young players. The Twins had 774 plate appearances ranking 27th. The Nationals ranked third with 469.1 innings. The Twins were 7th with 353 innings. Has the farm system lagged? Is it possible that it has been productive as shown by the number of young players playing in the majors for the Nationals? If I am a manager with multiple job offers and young talent is a factor in my decision I am not going to look at prospect rankings. I am going to look at the 25 and under talent. The Nationals outpace the Twins by that measure and should be ahead of them in this ranking.
  3. jorgenswest
    I feel the pain. I don’t hear the commitment that they promised. There was a road in the previous decade to trade off assets and get top flight prospects. That road has been closed. They aren’t going to turn things around by trading assets. The FV50 or FV40s assets they acquire will take too long to develop. If after a few years of up and down they do produce it will be time to trade them. My expectations are that they will trade Ryan for a very disappointing return. Sure they will get a few top 100 guys but not a top flight prospect. I bristle every time I hear the phrase top 100 as if it is a likelihood of success. Take a look at the #50 prospect in the MLB pipeline from 2011 to 2020. There is one player with a significant career in Wilson Contreras. The next best in Jedd Gyorko who had 2.6 WAR over three years for the Padres before being moved. He was their Julien with a good rookie season followed by two replacement level seasons. Nick Gordon ranks third of the 10. If you trade for the number 50 prospect you are lucky to get a Nick Gordon. If they think they can trade their way out of this and turn it around they better be one of the best in baseball in identifying the elite amidst a bunch of top 100 players that will mostly be replacement level.
  4. jorgenswest
    Falvey would be foolish to say they planned to trade Ryan and Lopez. That would depress the return. Other teams need to believe that the Twins expect to keep them. He needs teams to know that not only are they competing against each other but also a bar they have set before they will be traded A few years back Falvey said early after the 2023 season that they were going to reduce the budget. He needed to go the word salad direction then and he needs to now. The last thing he would want to be is transparent to the other teams. Sometimes word salad is better. I will be paying attention to their actions and not their words.
  5. jorgenswest
    An addition to each of the categories Internal Option: Brian Dinkleman Poach a bench manager: Craig Albernaz Veteran Manager most like Baldelli: Gabe Kapler Veteran Manager least like Baldelli: Clint Hurdle Way Outside-The-Box: Hirokaza Ibata
  6. jorgenswest
    I have these general wonders. Would they be better off with a manager with major league experience or someone new to managing? Would they be better off with someone in house or someone from the outside? Someone connected to Falvey or no connection?
  7. jorgenswest
    August 15 and after among AL teams 8th of 15 in runs scored 7th of 15 home runs 1st of 15 stolen bases
  8. jorgenswest
    The players probably all don’t get dropped at once. Enough will be dropped to protect those needed for rule 5. Maybe another gets dropped to allow a rule 5 pick up. There have been a few helpful pitchers in the previous two rule 5 drafts and the Twins draft early. After that players will get dropped to make room for DFAs from other acquisitions as spots are needed. The 40 that matters more is the one at the start of spring training. I would keep Fitzgerald. He may lose his opening day spot to Culpepper but he stays for now. We will have a better chance of seeing Culpepper when he is ready by keeping Fitzgerald rather than signing a player like Kiner-Falefa. I would do the same with Outman as the back up centerfielder until Rodriguez or Jenkins or both arrive. I would rather go into spring with Outman as the back up at CF and Fitzgerald as the back up SS than pay veterans for that role. Those veterans will stick around too long. I am also looking for two catchers better than Pereda for the start of spring training. If they have made the assessment his defense isn’t good enough they should probably include him in the early drops.
  9. jorgenswest
    I commented early on that Pereda might be a major league catcher. Watching him more I don’t think that was correct. I think I was swayed by the small sample of at bats and SWR dominating the Yankees. Pereda had a very rough game in that Bradley start against the Yankees. He struggled in all areas of the catcher job. There were four stolen bases on him though he didn’t play the full game. He failed to catch Martin’s on line throw in the play at home. He over threw second base on one of his four attempts to throw out a runner. He is better than Gasper but both had negative framing numbers while Jeffers and Vazquez were in the positive. The Twins chose to send out Pereda and return to a healthy Vazquez and Jeffers this week. If that decision aided in those good starts from Abel, Matthews, Bradley, Ober and Woods Richardson it was the correct move. All five benefit from going into the off season on a high note.
  10. jorgenswest
    Is it better to look at the Statcast data than a season of slash stats? In Clemens case isn’t the sample small for looking slash stats in making a decision about the roster? I do wonder if there is something there that is worth bringing back. He had a positive OAA at 1B and 2B and 0 in LF and RF. He was 4th on the Twins in xwOBA at .345. One of the four is Fitzgerald in a sample much smaller. Buxton and Martin were ahead of him. He was second behind Buxton in exit velocity Base running was a positive. He improved his bat speed by almost 2 mph in 2025 with the same swing length Starting 1B? Maybe not. The xwOBAs of the other starting 1Bs in the central were .347, .346, .330 and .320. His was .345 with the Twins. Is it possible he will improve given his limited major league at bats? Are his quality of contact numbers are better predictors of the future than his slash stats? Wouldn’t it be good to have a player on the bench that can play five positions reasonably well, run the bases well enough and a bat that performed near major league average and could be better?
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins came out of spring training losing with a 4-11 start. They followed that with coming out of the All Star break losing a series to the Rockies and going 4-8 in a time when they needed to fight to stay in the chase. They weren’t ready to start the season. They weren’t ready to start the second half. I know it is the players that play the game but I think a different manager would have had them ready. Go 14-13 in those stretches and they are in the wild card mix at 57-51. This is a different season if the team was ready to go out of spring training and after the break. For those that argue that the blame can be spread on the owners, front office staff and players. I don’t disagree. Change is needed and necessary though. New energy will emerge from the change. Changing the manager is an effective way to bring about that energy. I wish Rocco well and appreciate his time with the Twins. The 2019 season was amazing to watch. They won a playoff series. Good moments but he needs change also. Change is good and necessary for any professional. I expect he will be back managing and leading his team to the playoffs.
  12. jorgenswest
    @Nick Nelson I have appreciated these weekly reviews. Thank you.
  13. jorgenswest
    Do you think September play is different than other months now that MLB really limits the call ups? Your comment made me wonder and I have my doubts. Looked at box scores the last couple weeks. There are some injuries but that is always true. I don’t think any month by itself is a good sample but I don’t think September is any different than other months any longer.
  14. jorgenswest
    I would have signed him but I am a guy sitting in his couch looking at his 2021-22 stats. The reality is his first two seasons were aided by a low BABIP. When it normalized in 2023 he wasn’t effective. He also refused to report to a minor league assignment in 2023. Is that a sign that he resists doing the hard work required for any major leaguer? It certainly requires daily hard work and persistence to fight back from Tommy John. The Jays let him go in spite of options and a salary they could easily manage. Why not keep him and start him in AAA to begin next year? Was it simply a need for a spot on the 40? Maybe. Santander returned from the 60. They had other options like France who was put in the IL. Could he have been put on the 60 with his oblique injury? They have two older pitchers in AAA they could have DFA’d instead for a spot. Instead they preferred the 29 year old Easton Lucas and his career 8.08 ERA and 31 year old Dillon Tate instead. I don’t think the Jays let him go because of money. I think they thought they had other players more worthy of a 40 man roster spot including Lucas and Tate. Is it possible the teams in front of the Braves made the same assessment?
  15. jorgenswest
    From Inside Twins transcript
  16. jorgenswest
    Some realism… They are 7th in the AL and 2nd in the Central in runs scored since the trade deadline. They are 2nd in the AL in stolen bases since the deadline. The offense has performed better after trading four starters in Correa, Bader, Castro and France. I don’t know how to get a split on OAA but they are 9th of 15 in the AL for the season. Martin and Lewis appear by my eye to be improved. Lewis looks like he finally has his legs under him again. Clemens has been solid wherever they put him. Catcher took a hit when Jeffers and Vazquez were out. Lee is not Correa. Lee is a -2 OAA in 568 innings. Correa was -2 in 773 innings (most with Twins). Some suggest Kiner-Falefa who is -3 in 817 innings. I don’t see the gain. I have no idea how ready Culpepper is for shortstop. His field FV is 45/60. The outfield could be very good next year. More realism… The bullpen has been bad since the deadline. That brings me to this discussion about finding a closer.
  17. jorgenswest
    Indirectly when asked about Jax and Ober as they came up and transitioning or not to relievers. He then talked about how well Prielipp threw the ball and that he could help that group. I am uncertain whether the “group” is the pitching staff or the bullpen.
  18. jorgenswest
    I listened and a base of Buxton, Lopez and Ryan is encouraging.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think they need to bet on the upside of a pitcher that has never been a closer. Mason Miller was a minor league starter that missed most of 2022 with a right scapula injury and missed much of 2023 with a UCL sprain. He finished 2023 pitching 10 games and 6 starts for the A’s. In 2024 he was their closer though he never pitched in relief in the minors. The move to the bullpen was a strategic decision to manage his workload and prevent further injuries, particularly a forearm injury he sustained in 2023, and to utilize his dominant velocity in shorter, high-leverage outings. I am hoping Connor Prielipp follows that path. He dominates with the slider and the workload of a closer may be the best fit.
  20. jorgenswest
    Four pitchers have earned multiple saves for the Brewers this year. One was acquired in a DFA trade. One was acquired as a minor league free agent. One was a failed starter. One was a minor leaguers signed in 2018 in his first full season with the club. Four of the Mariners top 5 relievers were acquired in trade as minor leaguers. The other was a waiver claim. The Guardians have an undrafted free agent, pitchers acquired as minor leaguers in trade, a rule 5 pick up and a drafted failed starter. None of them required significant prospect capital or free agent dollars. Instead the Mariners and Brewers have been trading away established relievers. There is a road map to follow here. It may be the route Falvey chose to take as he navigates difficult payroll restrictions from the owner.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think he is a waiver claim so picking him up would mean tendering him for arbitration. As a waiver claim the Twins probably have a better shot at getting him as opposed to a free agent who has cleared waivers. His 4 seam fastball velocity in AAA was 91.0 when he returned this year. It was 93.7 and 93.9 on his successful seasons. His best pitch was his sinker. It was on both sides of 93 his successful seasons. It was 91.2 in AAA this year. His walk rate in the minors this year was 12.8%. It was 8.7% and 6.5% in his successful seasons. I would sign him and give him a shot as a reliever. My fear is the Twins won’t cut him loose if his control and velocity does not return.
  22. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. I won’t find debating whether someone should have challenged or not entertaining. I don’t want a loss or win to hinge on whether someone challenged a strike/ball call. If it is clear I will be more entertained if they get it right.
  23. jorgenswest
    The NFL also has the expedited review which keeps the flow of the game. ABS is more like that. No one needs to watch replays of the pitch from multiple angles. The result is clear and immediate as it is for the expedited review. Use ABS if it’s accurate. If accurate it doesn’t make any sense to let bad calls go unchanged that could be changed immediately with no stop in the flow of the game. If it isn’t deemed to be accurate enough for full use it doesn’t make sense to slow the game for a challenge.
  24. jorgenswest
    Didn’t they get the Marlins version of Gordon? Okert had not pitched well in 2023 but the Marlins took him to arbitration hoping to trade him for a living breathing human. They found Gordon. Neither performed well and both remained on the roster for nearly all of the season. Both teams lost this deal and would have been better served with a player from their organization or a minor league signing in the roster. If anything the Marlins won the deal because Gordon’s arb salary was less than Okert’s arb salary.
  25. jorgenswest
    Sometimes they get moved… They tendered Gio Urshela in 2022 and received Alejandro Hidalgo. He pitched in AA with a 6.42 ERA this year. They tendered Gordon and picked up a reliever in Okert who had been tendered by the Marlins in 2024. Neither made it to 2025 and performed poorly on 2024. Sometimes they don’t… They tendered Kyle Farmer and couldn’t move him. He remained on the roster performing poorly all season. How much different was Okert than someone they could have added as a free agent or minor league free agent? Is it worth the risk of not finding a trade for Larnach and retaining him on the roster?
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