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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The point of xwOBA is it is more stable in small samples than wOBA and slash stats. It takes a very large sample for slash stats to stabilize. Julien outperformed his contact in 2023. He had poor contact numbers in 2024. He underperformed his contact in 2025. He probably should be expected to be in middle of his 2023 and 2025 performances. That would be in the neighborhood of a league average. That isn’t enough to start at 1B. He doesn’t help on the bench with speed or defensive versatility. Without improvement his only good fit on a roster is a starting 2B if his glove is at least mediocre. With less than 1000 plate appearances improvement is possible. The Twins need to be open to that possibility and not have their minds fixed. Julien needs to show that improvement in spring. Clemens is a good fit on a bench. He can play 5 positions, run the bases and offers pop. He hit right handed pitching well and is a platoon fit at several positions. Outman was unlucky but that doesn’t matter when his expected stats aren’t good enough either. With his defense he needs a bat in the Michael A Taylor range (career OPS+ about 80) to have a major league job as a fourth outfielder. Taylor was an exceptional fielder and that was good enough to start some years. Outman’s 2023 season and minor league numbers make that a possibility. He will need to show it in spring or I would go with the upside in Roden’s bat as the 4th OF and sacrifice some defense. Once Jenkins or Rodriguez arrive the Twins won’t have a need for a back up CF with an 80 OPS so the clock is ticking. Outman needs to take advantage of any opportunity he gets early this year.
  2. jorgenswest
    I was in Fangraphs and did a lot of sorting of 1Bs. Bell doesn’t come up when sorted by first basemen unless you go down to 100 plate appearances as a 1B. Of the 1Bs listed in the group his wRC+ of 120 as a 1B was 17th of 52. His defense in that group was 42 of 52. That ranking is doesn’t take into account playing time. He probably would really be near the bottom with Tyler Soderstrom and Yandy Diaz. Pete Alonso and Vinnie Pasquantino would be down there too. He was mostly a DH last year so both WAR and OAA are not very useful in comparing to regulars 1Bs since they are both tied to playing time as a 1B. If the bat is of primary importance at 1B his overall numbers last year are comparable to the league average 1B and that is much better than the Twins 1Bs last year. If for some reason he is truly hits better when he is on the field then his wRC+ of 120 as a 1B is better than the average for the position.
  3. jorgenswest
    I tried to find a measure that had them 37th and 43rd. I even tried WAR to find 37 and 43 even though I know it would not be valid since Bell played mostly DH and all those DH games would carry a defensive penalty in the WAR calculation. Those ranks still did not come up. Bell had a wRC+ of 107. As a league the wRC+ overall was 109. The team median was 106. The Twins first basemen had a wRC+ of 90. Assuming he performs similarly to last year I would describe Bell as more of an upgrade than a ranking of 37 suggests.
  4. jorgenswest
    I think Martin will always fit on a roster. Positional flexibility, speed and the ability to take a good at bat will always work on a bench even if there isn’t enough power to be a starter. I think Martin’s best fit is 2B. There has to be some concern about Keaschall at 2B. He was a questionable fit at the time of the draft before the arm injuries. Keaschall’s arm strength was 6th percentile last year. If Keaschall’s average of 74.7 MPH improves to around his max last year of 78.3 MPH that will probably work for most double play turns. We can’t compare Martin’s average of 85.5 MPH from outfield with Keaschall from second base directly as it is a different throw. Willi Castro’s MPH from 2B is a few MPH less than outfield. The difference between Keaschall and Martin is enough to believe that last year Martin’s arm was significantly better. Does a healthy Keaschall have enough arm to play 2B or is Martin the better option?
  5. jorgenswest
    I don’t think a short side platoon is worth roster spot unless they can contribute defensively or have some speed but I am probably in the minority on that view. Wagaman did have an OPS of .783 against lefties his rookie season. He did well as a sub entering with an OPS of .826. His overall OPS was 103 points better in his second half. He has three options remaining. He might not be a bad option for a right handed short side platoon bat.
  6. jorgenswest
    I honestly have no idea if that would have made a difference. They could have given any of these seven time in the bullpen to end the season. Matthews, Woods Richardson had spots in the rotation until the end. Starting Abel and Bradley gave them the opportunity to see the most innings out of these two new acquisitions. Festa was injured. Prielipp was on a schedule that appeared to me to be very connected to rebuilding his arm. They didn’t deviate much from that progression. Raya was moved to the bullpen. His last start was 6 innings on August 14. After that he made 10 relief appearances. He was still needed in the rotation. McLaughlin started at least three bullpen days in September. I am not sure if the move to the pen was about gaining bullpen experience or lessening his innings or both. With Lopez, Ryan and Ober these seven make 10 starters with a few others that need to get starts in AAA. I think the plan was to use some of these arms to build a bullpen this year. I hope it works.
  7. jorgenswest
    I hope they keep giving him work at 2B. If Keaschall suffers another injury or can’t play 2B adequately following the arm injuries they have options in Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Roden and Fedko in left field but not near the options for 2B.
  8. jorgenswest
    His numbers were solid last year and it doesn’t appear to be luck. His xWOBA was greater than his wOBA. His challenge will be how he responds as the league adjusts to him.
  9. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it was ever a rebuild. I think they believe they can restock prospects using the bullpen and find inexpensive bullpen pieces among their many pre-arb starting arms. The first half of the plan leaves them with many FV45 to FV50 players. I am not confident that they can build a bullpen from the starters beyond number 5 but I am hopeful. The Brewers and Guardians have found several bullpen arms using few resources. The Mariners traded several closers since Dipoto took very in return for prospects. One year they traded their closer at the deadline while contending. None of these teams have tried to turn it over all at once though. Falvey’s job should be connected to its success.
  10. jorgenswest
    I don’t think all three of Julien, Outman and Kreidler will make the roster. I think each of the three needs to show promise of their upside in team spring training. All teams have a roster crunch as they set their rosters at the end of spring. I don’t think it is a high risk of losing them to waivers unless they have a strong spring. If that happens the Twins will roster them. I also don’t like projections because I don’t believe players are fixed in their skills. Players with less than 1500 at bats may take a significant step. While spring training stats are pretty useless I don’t believe spring training is useless. The staff has eyes on these players in workouts and drills for several weeks. Any player who finished in AAA last year ought to have a chance to win a job in spring. Players who performed poorly last year should have to show something in spring training to earn a job. It is hard to imagine all of Julien, Kreidler and Outman will have a strong spring.
  11. jorgenswest
    This year four starters with two years of control in the top 10 of ESPN’s off season trade candidate rankings. Skubal, Ryan, Lopez and Gore have not moved yet. Maybe it is too early and free agency needs to be sorted out and the offers will get better later in the winter. Maybe the offers for that extra year of service time don’t come near meeting the value. Two years of Skubal has more than twice the excess value compared to his last year as his salary will increase. I wonder if the offers don’t reflect that excess value. The Twins have more FV45 or better players than any other team. They are missing that top flight talent of FV55 or better. If the trade offers are multiple FV45 and 50s instead of that elite talent they lack I support their decision to hold onto Ryan.
  12. jorgenswest
    Is that looking at the range in any year? I think the long length of the schedule would tend to shrink that range. I wonder what the year to year variance in winning percentage is for each team. I guess the 162 would impact that also. Would looking a playoff participation over the last 10 years be helpful? Is the ratio of playoff teams close enough to make that work? I would think a more competitively balanced league would have fewer teams with near 100% or 0%.
  13. jorgenswest
    Intriguing. I don’t know how to think about a league’s competitive balance. How would we measure the degree of competitive imbalance? Variance in Wins? Playoff success? Would the year to year variation of teams in a league with more competitive balance be greater?
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t get the binary of all in and going for the World Series or bust thinking. Baseball is a great game and almost every year we are guaranteed 162 games. I enjoy watching Ryan pitch for the Twins and every game he starts gives them a better chance to win than who ever happens to be the 5th starter at the time. Those 162 is why I watch baseball. It isn’t the dream of a pennant.
  15. jorgenswest
    For a few years I kept hearing on this site that Buxton was unhappy though I don’t think there was ever a direct quote from him that he wanted out. I don’t think we have that from Ryan either. I saw quotes related to Gray and the decision to right size payroll. I don’t see unhappiness in those comments. He simply spoke the truth.
  16. jorgenswest
    He might. He risks injury in the next two years that could significantly cut into his next contract. The injury risk is on the Twins also dropping his trade value. I think there is a contract structure possible that the Twins can afford and Ryan can accept. Your numbers might be in that ballpark. For the Twins the value of this deal would go beyond Ryan. It would show both the players in the clubhouse and the fans that they are committed to putting out a competitive team now and down the road.
  17. jorgenswest
    If there is a surplus of major league quality starting pitching they have a need for those arms in the pen where there is a deficit. I wouldn’t be actively trying to trade starting pitching. I would be actively trying to trade at least one corner outfielder.
  18. jorgenswest
    Vientos does little to help the bench. He doesn’t run well. He doesn’t play a position well or have positional flexibility. He either hits well enough to start at make up for a bad glove at 3B or he will be a journeyman. While his OPS and wOBA dropped significantly from 2024 to 2025 his xwOBA based on the quality of his contact did not. It dropped from. .331 to .319 which was one point off his career mark entering the season. I suspect he is better than last year but his talent is closer to the 2025 numbers than the 2024 numbers. The Twins do have a back up at 3B with the addition of Bell in Kody Clemens. Clemens quality of contact was better than Vientos and he adds better positional flexibility as well as better base running to contribute from the bench.
  19. jorgenswest
    Each draft is unique. McCarty’s year was one of the worst for talent taken at the top of the draft. Two player in the top 10 picks has a career WAR over 10 and it isn’t much over 10. Two guys of ten had some regular play in the majors. Banks’ year was better with 3 of 10 having more than 10 career WAR. Still four of the top 10 never played in the majors. Griffey was gone by their pick but they could have gone with the lower ceiling and taken one of the three college pitchers that went picks 4 to 6. Let’s hope the top 10 in this year’s draft produces more impact players than the 1987 and 1991 drafts.
  20. jorgenswest
    Let’s hope he is one of the league best at challenging ball calls and turning them into strikes. Will there be catchers with an elite ability to challenge calls and others poor? If one catcher is hitting 70-80% and another is around 40% those additional strikes are really going to help as well as being able to retain the challenge. I haven’t seen any AAA data on individual catcher success rate. I have seen data that catchers as a group have had more success than pitchers as a group. I wonder if there will be a positive correlation between those that frame well and those that challenge or maybe a negative correlation as they are already getting a higher rate of favorable calls.
  21. jorgenswest
    I could sit here and rant about the move. I didn’t want another 1 year stop gap solution at first base. Bell is a Twin. For me the healthy choice to look forward and be hopeful. I have been interested in how the previous season xwOBA might be a better predictor for the next season than the previous season slash stats. Among the 40 first basemen with at least 300 plate appearances Bell’s xwOBA was 9th with Harper and Olson in front of him and Contreras and Freeman behind him. Bell’s xwOBA was .359. Buxton led the Twins with an xwOBA of .348. Note: Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.
  22. jorgenswest
    Looking forward and trying to find hope in the Bell signing. He did make a change in his swing. That change could explain his early season struggle with the adjustment as well as his good second half. I look forward to seeing the fruits of those changes with the Twins.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am all for the Twins trading prospects like Ruiz. I would argue a bunch of 1-2 WAR seasons aren’t going to replace a Cy Young candidate starter in the playoffs.
  24. jorgenswest
    Sorry. I was commenting on your post about the Brewers. I must have misunderstood it.
  25. jorgenswest
    Did they trade them as early as the Twins traded Duran, Varland and Jax? It seems like they trade them with 1 year of control or 1+ years at the deadline in a season they didn’t make the playoffs similar to the Berrios deal. The Brewers and Guardians do a good job of maximizing and utilizing the peak value of their players before trading them. The Twins did that with Berrios. They didn’t with Duran, Jax and Varland. The Brewers received 9 players for Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Josh Hader. I only see one that had even 1 WAR on the roster last year in Caleb Durbin. He is a solid player but a 101 OPS+ at 3B isn’t a difference maker. Contreras was acquired for a prospect in a three team deal. Yelich was acquired for prospects. Peralta was acquired a decade ago for a one year rental in Adam Lind that would be similar to the Twins trading Bader. Who are the other 6 players acquired in deals for players like Ryan or Lopez or Buxton? Do the Brewers need to keep their impact players to get to the World Series? They had control of Burnes in 2024. In season he would have helped get them the bye. Then he starts game 1 of the divisional series against a team that probably can’t go with their number 1 or 2. Do they make the World Series if they keep him? They need impact players to win the World Series. Their return of DJ Hall and Joey Ortiz hardly seems worth losing a season of a Cy Young caliber pitcher.
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