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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Is it possible they are still hoping to find a position that fits other than 1B/DH? . The Twins have drafted Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Julien and now Keaschall. All college infielders. It shouldn’t be surprising that they have had a difficult time finding a position that fits. They didn’t finish college at shortstop. Major league second basemen almost all were drafted as shortstops and started their minor league careers as a shortstop.
  2. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t react to traditional stats in spring. I wouldn’t react to traditional regular season stats until June either and then it would be walk and strikeout rates. I do think there are pitch level stats that don’t need large samples and can be considered. With that data you can also compare to previous AAA data and wonder if there has been an approach, pitch recognition or swing change. Comparing with AAA and looking for change might eliminate some concern about the 94 or 86.
  3. jorgenswest
    Teams across the MLB are doing the same. I think it is part procedural and happens every spring at this time. I am not fully sure of the reason for the timing. One piece is that if a player on the 40 man that hasn’t been optioned gets injured now they would need to be on the major league IL earning service time. Speculation on my part is that it is close enough now that if they were put on the opening day roster an option would not be used.
  4. jorgenswest
    Second base is Clemens best spot. He haD a 112 OPS+ against right handed pitching to go with a positive career OAA and DRS at 2B. He underperformed his contact numbers last year suggesting that if anything he had bad luck. Keaschall’s upside gives him the job but I don’t think he can match Clemens defensively. Keaschall’s bat is his ticket. The best line up against right handed pitching might be to find a way to get both in the game.
  5. jorgenswest
    Players aren’t fixed on their previous slash. Sometimes players take a step forward in the winter. Sometimes teams figure out to pitch them more effectively. I certainly would not be fixed in thinking he is the same player as 2025 where he received sporadic major league playing time. Outman has a career 94 OPS+. He can play an above average centerfield. He has some speed. He strikes out way too much. He is 28. Has he changed? Triple slash stats are worthless but his plate discipline can be compared to both his very unsuccessful time in the majors as well as his successful time in the minors. His swing rate was virtually the same at both levels last year. His swing rate this spring is up 5%. His contact rate is up 8.6% over his AAA contact rate last year where he was successful. Why AAA? He isn’t seeing exclusively major league pitchers. If there is a change it should show up when compared to AAA. Both his swinging strike and his called strike rates are down compared to his AAA numbers. He has seen 125 pitches which is meaningful when looking at swing stats. The Twins will have access to bat tracking that may show a change. Does that mean there has been a change in his pitch recognition or approach or swing? Possibly. He is a major leaguer if he can hit an OPS+ of 90 or better to go with his glove. He may have done enough this spring to make a major league roster.
  6. jorgenswest
    I wonder if this is a big concern for the Brewers and Dodgers.
  7. jorgenswest
    I have been wondering about pitchers dood at locating with a lot of movement adjusting from the 3-D to 2-D strike zone. What about the pitchers that can throw the strike thats hit the front corner but is off the plate by the middle edge or that back door pitch that didn’t enter the strike zone until after the middle of the plate or the pitcher that hits the strike zone at the front of the plate but drops out by the middle? Will those movement and location skilled pitchers need to capture more of the plate and drop in effectiveness? Will they replaced by more pitchers with velocity? I hope not. Going 2-D will shrink the strike zone,
  8. jorgenswest
    I would absolutely have the 6th stater in the pen assuming he is better pitcher than the 7th reliever. Several teams did this last year. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals moved from the pen to the rotation twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the AL champion Blue Jays. I would take the 12 best arms. I think it is better for the development of all of those pitchers to face major league hitters. Even if they stash a guy in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need for a start. A few years ago Ober was the 6th starter in AAA but he wasn’t available when needed so they had to go with Varland. It isn’t that hard. The minds of the leadership should not be fixed on a role of starter or reliever.
  9. jorgenswest
    It would be a good thing if the Twins have 5 starters better than. I also think it is beneficial to the team if the 6th starter is in the pen facing major league hitters. Several teams transitioned a bullpen arm to starter when they had a need last year. It doesn’t take that many starts.
  10. jorgenswest
    It shouldn’t be a surprise. He had his first good season at age 32. At 34 last year he had the same number of batted ball events. His exit velocity, max exit velocity, launch angle, ground ball percentage, barrels, and hard hit balls all went in the wrong direction. As a result his expected ERA went from 3.04 to 4.42. His swing and miss rate was down 1, separation between fast ball and change up was down 2 and K rate down 3.6%. Walk rate was slightly up. At 35 should we expect a return to age 32 or another step of decline? I would not base it on spring ERA. Even a single regular season ERA, FIP and xFIP come in too small samples for relievers. I would watch his velocity, the swings and misses he is getting and the quality of contact he is giving up. If that doesn’t look close to 2023 it is hard to see how he helps the team.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is Alex Verdugo the only viable left handed batting free agent outfielder? Comforto just signed. Winker is probably a DH though maybe that can be said about Larnach too. Seattle and Houston have a need. They might be waiting out Winker and Verdugo for the best possible deal. Would Larnach be a significant enough upgrade over Verdugo or Winker offensively and defensively to give up assets?
  12. jorgenswest
    Baseball is a great game and we are guaranteed 162 of them each season. It’s the games that matter. No matter what happens there is always going to be another game to watch.
  13. jorgenswest
    He is the one established starter on the staff. We have no idea what Ober will bring. I think his leadership matters to the development of the young starters. That has value. His innings matter to the development of the team. There is no path to totally break it down anymore. Teams don’t trade top flight prospects. The first round pick is not guaranteed like it was for the Astros and Orioles. You have to develop the players in the system. He helps with that development. By the deadline hopefully one or two others will establish themselves. At that time a Berrios deal (2 top 100 talents) will be possible and likely isn’t much different from what they are being offered now. Maybe the Giants will have starter trouble and change their mind about making Eldridge available. In that case a deal now makes sense.
  14. jorgenswest
    I wonder if this is the shift that Joe Pohlad and Zoll have taken. They have signed 6 relievers since Falvey left. Even the signing of Rogers just prior to his leaving might not be Falvey’s direction. I only see quotes for Shelton and Zoll about that signing when announced. Falvey may have been planning to have some of the young starters in the bullpen. Things have shifted quite a bit since. Starter certainly became thinner this week so maybe they are better off this year and in the long run. I would not have signed so many aging relievers. Even if they are league average you still have the same problem next year.
  15. jorgenswest
    At some point they will need to play on a larger field with more space between the bases, more distance from the pitcher to home plate and a correspondingly larger home plate. That will be beyond my lifetime. When it happens strikeouts will drop so successful pitchers will need to keep hitters off balance and get groundballs. On a bigger field successful position players are going to need more athleticism and speed. I don’t think that conversation starts until there are a few really serious injuries or perhaps even deaths. That path is inevitable though with the always increasing pitch velocities and exit velocities.
  16. jorgenswest
    Here how Woods Richardson ranks compared to the group of 150 pitchers with the most innings as a starter in the last two seasons (over 141 innings needed) 3.1 fWAR (75th) 4.1 brWAR 4.08 ERA (82nd) 4.27 FIP (90th) 4.69 xFIP (122nd) 3.83 xERA (49th) Last year there were only two pitchers younger than him that threw more innings in Paul Skenes and Cade Horton. A skeptic is going to see the xFIP and an optimist is going to see the xERA. Proponents of xFIP might say that it is a better predictor for future ERA due to using the league average HR rate (an individual HR rate is very random in small samples). Proponents of xERA might say that it is better because it uses the quality of contact for which the pitcher has more rather than the outcome. I think you look at it all. It sure looks like Woods Richardson’s performance over the last two years is close to the middle of his 150 peers. That performance comes as one of the youngest pitchers in the group. Is that something that is helpful in the 4th or 5th starter role?
  17. jorgenswest
    I think you are right based on the direction they took. If they are signing these other one year stop gaps add Lowe too, That wouldn’t be my direction. I wouldn’t have signed all of those decline phase one year contract relievers. It pushes the problem to next year. I would have built from the pool of young starters. I would not have pushed off first base until next year. I would have looked to pushing Jenkins and Rodriguez to the majors with Keaschall at 1B, Martin at 2B and Wallner to DH. Clemens is a good for behind both of them. Roden can play 1B. That team of unproven young players has a better chance of 5th place than the route Pohlad and Zoll took. I think it also has a better chance of mid 80s wins. Joe Pohlad is putting his mark on this roster. New veteran relievers are added daily. Solutions at 1B and the bullpen are still elusive. Oh well. I will be watching. Go Twins.
  18. jorgenswest
    Rodriguez and Jenkins are the only viable centerfield options when Buxton is out. Martin or Roden can give him a day but the Twins will need one of them if it is longer. My roster would have been filled with the upside of those two in the outfield pushing Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B as well as the young remaining starter arms in the pen. That isn’t the direction the Twins went. Oh well. I will be watching regardless.
  19. jorgenswest
    Outman is lottery ticket. He a valuable major leaguer in 2023. He was awful in the majors the next two years but also had a AAA wRC+ of 135 and 136 in 2025 at the time of the trade. I would think the Twins are at least as likely to get value from Outman as they are in getting value from a lottery ticket like Alejandro Hidalgo. The chance of payoff is low for both. Echoing @jmlease1
  20. jorgenswest
    Chafin pitched for the Nationals and Angels last year with a 2.41 ERA but worse peripherals.
  21. jorgenswest
    At age 25 Paredes was in his 4th organization. Almost 27 and the Astros are looking to move him to his fifth. I have to wonder why. I would not trade Jeffers for him. Larnach isn’t enough but I wouldn’t add much more.
  22. jorgenswest
    In the Athletic article Joe was very optimistic about the Twins and the season. It almost seems as if he was continually pressed about arbitration. The title of the Athletic article was . The article also stated that Perhaps @Cody Christie had a completely different interview with Joe. If not his take on Ryan leads to comments like this That second hand take is a long way from the Athletic article and is a result of the TD article that is either sourced from a different interview or poorly and maybe irresponsibly represented the entirety of the interview. It does play to what some TD readers want to hear.
  23. jorgenswest
    They had to take the best offer or lose him to waivers. Maybe no one offered them a prospect with any chance to make it to the majors.
  24. jorgenswest
    In assessing the international draft you probably need to go back 7 years. By now that player will be on the 40 using their last option or been exposed to rule 5. Diego Cartaya was one of the big signings in 2018. He had last year to either make it or not with the Dodgers so the 2025 season was the year to check on him. The Twins used most of their pool money in 2019. That group is really at a key moment this year to make an impact on the Twins. One of the players is on the 40 in Emmanuel Rodriguez (on his last option). Others like Ricardo Olivar have been exposed to rule 5. Emma Rodriguez was given the 8th most bonus money. The Dodgers Luis Rodriguez was right behind in 9th. He was released after the 2024 season. The Dodgers have a few others that remain in the organization. All have passed through rule 5. Look at the list provided by Spotrac. Do you recognize most of the names at the top of the list? I would absolutely trade international money. The players are so young when they are acquired and get to the point where they need to be on the 40 or exposed in rule 5 at a very young age.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is a huge difference between moving from catcher to first base than from outfield. In order to play catcher you have to have good hands and feet. The same is true at first base. A player who has never played on the dirt is going to have to develop those hands and feet to see if they became adequate as well as learning the position. I am sure Washington knew the transition would be hard for Hatteberg but he also must have know that it was easier than trying to convert a guy who had never played on the dirt. It is worthy of a try. We might never see him in a game at 1B hopefully working him out there will be remembered.
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