jorgenswest

Is it possible he was chosen based on the skills he brings? Perhaps Derek Falvey simply believes he gives them the best chance to win games while developing several inexperienced players.

The manager before him had a winning season two seasons earlier. Clint Hurdle also turned the 57 win 2010 Pirate team he took over in 2011 into a team that went to the playoffs three straight seasons (2013-2015). Unrelated but Hurdle is fascinating to me. His previous job was with the Rockies where he took that team to the playoffs in two of the three season before they fired him. He went to the 2007 World Series and lost in the playoffs in 2009. His work and success with the Rockies and Pirates organizations just can’t be understated. That work certainly should not be forgotten.

I wonder why Shelton would take this job. He must have asked about the Twins plans for Ryan and Lopez in the interview process. He must have asked how they will address the bullpen and first base and catcher. He must have asked about payroll. Terry Francona started his managerial career with four losing seasons in Philadelphia. he was fired after the 2000 season. After three seasons in various roles (assistant GM, bench coach) he accepted 2004 Red Sox job who replaced their manager after losing the ALCS. He chose that job well. I don’t think he gets a third shot if he has a losing stretch with a second club. Shelton chose this job. Why? He would have had a job on a bench or in a front office. If I was told the plan was to reduce payroll by trading Ryan and Lopez this winter I would have ended the interview. This could be strike 2 for him and there isn’t likely a strike 3. If anything, accepting this job is a sign that the Twins are not going to tear this down further. He didn’t need to take the job. He could have been a valuable bench coach and been patient. A opportunity would have come his way. Why did he choose this job?

I dont think any of the position players are really part of the discussion. Adding Klein is adding someone they want to be on the 40 all season. There will be a few roster management spots that will rotate through DFA’s players. So maybe 38. How many pitchers should be part of that 38? How many do they have that need that full year 40 spot? How may relievers will they add? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, Woods Richardson, Abel, Bradley, Topa, Sands, Funderburk, Adams, Ohl, Lawyerson and Raya are on the 40. That is already 15 that they reasonably should consider keeping on the 40. They may not keep Topa or Adams but I think that will be to create space for reliever signings. If any of the 15 are removed they are a much easier pick up than a rule 5. They will add Morris, Priellipp and Rojas. We are at 18. Will they add any free agent relievers? Will there be pitcher available with their early rule 5 pick that are more ready to help or have more upside than Klein? Does Klein have more upside than Culpepper or Olivares who are in the same spot? Klein was used in a different role last year. His more frequent 3-4 inning often from the bullpen use led to improved strike out rate. Is his improved strike out rate a result of improved skill or is his change in use a factor. They need to exercise caution with each add to the 40. If they need to DFA them later they risk losing them with fewer restrictions than a rule 5 pick up. I would be surprised if a Twins player is selected in the rule 5 and retained. I think there are several organizations with a lot more depth.

Is Shelton a match for a rebuild? He took over the Pirates and their 4th ranked (Fangraphs) farm system in 2020. They have had a top 10 system in 13 of the last 14 Fangraphs reports. They had 6 top 100 prospects when he took over. The only one of the six that has become an average major league player is Oneil Cruz and his value dropped when moved off of shortstop. Since then through last spring they had 23 different players in the top 100 prospects. Did they develop? Who is left? Paul Skenes is very good. Oneil Cruz has a career 100 wRC+ and has moved off SS. Catcher Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez are still around both with career OPS under 600. Nick Gonzalez has a career wRC+ of 84. Mitch Keller has a career ERA of 4.51. Braxton Ashcroft and Bubba Chandler looked promising in their 8 and 4 rookie starts last year. Liover Peguero has shuttled back and forth for three years with a 74 wRC+ and is out of options. Those 9 are the good news. They are still around. Konnor Griffin and Temarr Johnson haven’t arrived yet. The Twins have a good farm system. They have several young players in the early phase of their major league careers or are close to the majors. The Twins need a manager that will help them take the next step. Did they find one? Maybe. They certainly aren’t going to find a manager with more experience in working with young players and helping them develop into major leaguers. Perhaps there are things he would do differently and has learned from that experience. Let’s hope the Twins are the beneficiaries of that learning.

I think they have been reasonably aggressive with those three. Chourio and Merrill are in a different tier from those three. There are very few that get a FV60 from Fangraphs. Chourio and Merrill did. The Twins three have not been viewed as that tier prospect by Fangraphs. A little more about the journeys of Merrill and and Chourio… Merrill was drafted in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 987 minor and fall league plate appearances. Chourio was signed in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 1469 minor and foreign league plate appearances. Jenkins was drafted in 2023. He has 854 plate appearances. So far he has reasonably matched Merrill even arriving in AAA faster than Merrill. I would love to see him this year.

The 162 games matter. Next season matters. I care more about having a competitive team every year than a contender for the World Series window. The Twins can be a competitive team next year. They need Ryan and Lopez to be competitive. There will come a time to trade them as Burnes was traded but that should be when there is one season of control left. These two years are the sweet spot of Ryan’s contract. He has enough experience to be near his peak. His salary for this year is not prohibitive at all.

My answer would have been different following 2019/2020 and even 2023 had they not been right sizing the payroll.. My answer might be different this year if I believed they would be willing to cut loose veterans in May if they are not playing well. That hasn’t been my experience. I would have advocated for Martin over signing Bader last year following the season where Farmer and Margot were rostered all year. If they are going to have a payroll among the bottom 10 they must develop prearb players. Otherwise they will continue in this cycle of mediocrity or worse.

It is a small sample but even over his career he has a better OPS in games started by a left handed pitcher. Is it better to be extreme in this split like Wallner (.906 v .464 OPS over career)? Maybe. Just put him on the bench when a lefty starts and keep him there.

I join the group that want the Twins to stop signing the one year stop gap free agents. Even the group that would advocate for signing those inexpensive veterans, signing Kiner-Falefa to play him at SS would not be a parallel the signings of Bader and Santana. In every season in which Kiner-Falefa has over 100 innings at SS he has a negative OAA. According to OAA Lee was a better shortstop last year and by wRC+ Lee was the better hitter.

I don’t. I wonder how much it matters. I suspect most of the damage was done against right handed pitching. That still seems like a positive thing. The alternative is a line up full of right handed bats that makes it too easy for the starter to get in a rhythm. Larnach will take longer at bats and put the ball in play better than Wallner against a lefty. Situated between two right handed batters he makes it more difficult for that right handed reliever that is going to come in mid game.

Maybe. There are a lot more like Povich than Skubal so that is probably true of everyone. It turns out he started against Skubal once and Povich once. He also started against Crochet.

Larnach has the odd split. He hit better last year in games started by a left handed pitcher than when right handed pitchers start. His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why? He started 15 of those 25 games so it isn’t just pinch hitting after the lefty starter has been removed. He must bat later in the lineup and see that lefty no more than twice. He then must clean up on the right handed relievers. Random small sample? Maybe but this is true for his career numbers also. He has been helpful and playable in games started by lefties in his career. Wallner does not have this odd split. He has done very poorly in games started by a lefty both last year and his career. A big part of that is his very poor pinch hitting record over his career. He hasn’t been playable in games started by a lefty.

What is the definition for a rebuild? Is part of it trading off multiyear assets during the winter? Is it noticeable in a drastic change in the payroll? Is it evident by no free agent signings in the winter? Would that rebuild team have the near youngest average batter and pitcher? Would it start the season with near the highest ratio of pre-arb players? All teams out of it at the deadline are going to trade off expiring and even near expiring assets like Berrios. They are going to trade off big contracts if they can find a taker. I wouldn’t see that as an indicator of a rebuild.

It has always been the real job of catchers to receive balls and make them look like strikes. That won’t change next year but I guess there will be a time when that part of a catcher’s job will change with full ABS. Search Johnny Bench and framing and you will see him explain how he would turn his glove to receive pitches in the various outside edges of the strike zone. It is now called framing and once called receiving but it has always been a part of being a catcher. Those nostalgic to the eras of Johnny Bench or Elston Howard should want to keep the skill of receiving a ball part of the game. I am fine with the change but for me it should be all ABS or no ABS. The challenge system is unnecessary here. The result is immediate and it does not need the time for review.

There will be new aspects of catcher skill and with only 2 challenges framing will still be critical. Some will be very good at identifying balls that are strikes. Patrick Bailey speaks of the skill to goad hitters into making challenges that will fail. Challenge success rate for catchers in AAA was 56%. My guess is that some will be much better than that and others much worse. I hope Jeffers lands on the plus side. Pitchers and batters were less successful than catchers in challenging pitches.

The history of catcher equipment is fascinating and a lot has to do with getting more strikes. Better pads and pads on the outside of the uniform in the later 1800s allowed catchers to crowd the strike zone more. The circular pocket of the 1920s allowed catchers to pocket more balls but they were still using two hands. Johnny Bench and Randy Hundley were the first to catch one handed with the innovation of a hinged catcher glove. They were both known for their ability to get more strikes. Catchers have always worked hard to capture more strikes. The change recently was the ability to measure that skill with tech. Framing has always been around and I have appreciated the catchers with the skill to do it well.

Springer was not drafted as result of a 100 loss season. Those were the 2012 to 2015 drafts. Like Altuve and Keuchel he was one of the pieces that was acquired prior to the drafts that resulted from the 100 loss seasons. Their top picks from those disastrous seasons were Correa, Aiken and Appel all picked first and Bregman picked second overall. Like the Brewers and Guardians it was about acquisition and development. By 2013 it was a commitment to young players instead of veterans in team friendly one year deals. They were an old team winning 74 and 76 games in 2009 and 2010. They had few pieces to trade off and the returns on those trades were not a part of the championship run. They committed to developing their own and did it well. The Twins don’t need to lose 100 games four years in a row. They need to develop their players well and give them sustained opportunities in the majors. If they can’t develop players it won’t matter if they are at the top of the draft 4 years in a row.

I think quantity over quality is the way to go for International signings. No matter which go it will take a really skilled group of scouts identifying talent from the talent they see play most of which is prior to age 16. It is so hard to identify quality. Go back 10 years to the 2015 draft season. Those players would now be n the primes of their careers. The top 13 (I planned to go 10 but there was a 4 way tie) consisting of the group that were signed for 2 million or more is pretty unimpressive. There is one significant player in Vlad Guerrero, Leody Taveras has 4.5 WAR OBP er his career that spanned 6 major league seasons. The only other one to,reach the majors is Gilberto Celestino. Of the others many did not make it to AA. Less expensive bonuses were given to some quality players. Juan Soto signed for 1.5 million. Andre’s Gimenez 1.2. Oneil Cruz 900K. Tatis Jr 700K. The previous edition of the Twins front office went big. They gave Wander Javier 4 million which was the third highest bonus. At least for that year it sure seems like quantity over perceived quality would have been the way to go. 2014 may even be more dismal for the top 10 bonuses. If you are still interested look at the top 10 of 2016. Some of these 2016 guys are now just in their age 25 or 26 season so maybe have some chance of playing in the majors.

Yes. They should listen. You don’t trade a player with multiple years of service time unless you get blown away. Because his salary will go up after this year the greater portion of his remaining excess value is this season. He should be worth more than twice as much now as he will a year from now. That is all in theory. In practice you don’t get that much more for the extra year. They need the headliner to be someone in or very near the top ten overall prospects. If they don’t get that wait until next year. They will still be able to get players in the top 100 a year from now. This year it has to be the top of the top 100 or hold him. I don’t think they will get that offer so they should happily hold him.

I think it is Gagne. I don’t believe his defensive contribution is measured well in rWAR and the measures of his time. If I understand oWAR and dWAR correctly his offense contributed more than to his rWAR than his defense while with Minnesota. That can’t be true.

I would make the trade. I really don’t see how BTV can possibly evaluate his trade value or really anyone on the outside. The range of possible outcomes returning from his elbow injury is pretty wide. The Pirates will know best the health of his arm. If they are willing to deal him that probably means that they aren’t confident in a full return and a healthy arm going forward. If they are confident I don’t see how they trade away his four remaining years of control.

Mendez and Amick aren’t getting very much playing time. Mendez is the 5th outfielder in playing time. Amick is splitting time as a back up at first and third. Both are at the bottom of the plate appearances list with Blake Rodden who is returning from a season ending injury. I wonder why Mendez isn’t getting more plate appearances.

Servais anyone?

Baseball Savant’s list of 37 shortstops I noticed on the bottom were the two shortstops from the teams in the ALCS. I noticed Brooks Lee at 23 of 37. I noticed he was just above Correa and also above Kiner-Falefa. There were some bad plays at shortstop but is it possible that we don’t don’t the things he does well. Is he in a place where his shortstop play I. The major leagues will get better? Not sure. If he can hit at league average his play in the field at shortstop will be good enough. The Twins will have bigger problems. Baseball Savant’s list of 46 second basemen Keaschall is 32 of 46. It will probably be good enough if he hits. The wRC+ for all second base play was 90. The Twins already have a player on their roster who was above average fielder and above the 90 in wRC+ but in the roster. Kody Clemens is 19 of 46 and had a wRC+ of 98 with the Twins. His expected stats based in contact were also better than his actual stats with a xwOBA of .342 with the Twins compared to an actual wOBA of .307. Players with that difference often have improved actuals the next season. Keaschall’s xwOBA was .329. That was quite bit below his actual but I his age and return to health should lead to significant improvement in quality of contact. I would not sign a stop gap for shortstop or trade assets for a long term solution. I would bet on Lee, Keaschall and Clemens followed by Culpepper up the middle. There is a need for a back up shortstop. I would bring in competition for Fitzgerald. Kreidler is a start and should be solid defensively with little bat. I don’t think he will be the next Willi Castro. There are former top 100 players like Ezequiel Duran and Liover Peguero that will be out of options and could be DFA’d if they are looking for the next Willi Castro.