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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The path to a rebuild by tear down is more difficult if not possible than last decade. The Astros and Orioles didn’t rebuild by trades. They had the number 1 or 2 pick and the associated dollars to split among all of their picks. The draft lottery has closed the door on that route. Last decade there were some blockbuster trades with prospect hauls. The Royals received a top flight prospect, two other prospects in the top 100 and Lorenzo Cain who had a solid two month debut in the majors in 2010. The Yankees received a top flight prospect in Gleyber Torres , a top 100 prospect, major leaguer Adam Warren and another prospect for a rental reliever in Aroldis Chapman. The Twins traded away three post seasons of Duran and didn’t get near the return. It took 5 years of control to pry away De Vries. If teams aren’t going to trade top flight prospects and you can’t go with the be awful and get the number 1 pick plan then I wouldn’t go with the tear down plan. Those plans rely on a higher likelihood of getting an impact player. There really isn’t much that separates the 250 or so FV45 to FV50 players. The Twins do have a plan. It was to trade three very good under control relievers and replenish their prospect pool. As a result no one had more FV45 players or better than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates. For the plan to work they need to build a respectable bullpen from their large group of unproven starters and a few impact players need to emerge from their many good but not top flight prospects. It probably won’t work but I don’t think it is less likely to work than the tear down.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t know about Mountcastle. Last year was really bad and the Orioles must not have felt he will return to his 2023 levels. It doesn’t appear to be bad luck. Even if he performs at his 2024 levels it will be below average for a 1B though above league an average for a hitter. Last year of the 40 first basemen with at least 300 PAs he ranked 39th. To get to the middle and 15th he would need a wRC+ of 123. The only year he reached that level was 2020 and his rookie season. His next best was 113. I would trade prospects for Mayo. I don’t have access to BTV but I wonder how Emmanuel Rodriguez would compare. I think he might even be higher given his positional value.
  3. jorgenswest
    I would only trade assets for multiple years of control. Mayo is the only option here.
  4. jorgenswest
    They had a stretch of drafting bat first players. Keaschall arm strength was an issue before his injuries. He was a questions to stay at 2B when he was drafted. Julien couldn’t find a position home in college. He moved around the infield looking for a fit. Steer looks like 1B is his only position. It is the same for Encarnacion-Strand. Almost all major league second basemen started as shortstops in the minors. They were good shortstops in the context of college or the low minors. None of these players were full time shortstops in the minors. Keaschall and Steer player there one season but that was more out of necessity. Coaching defense will only get these players so far. Is Keaschall’s arm adequate in the outfield? If not does he have enough bat to be a 1B? I hope so. He could be a multiyear solution at 1B. Can Martin play 2B well if Keaschall can handle left? One other player shouldn’t be left out of the middle infield discussion. The Twins already have a 2B on the roster that had a bat and glove last year that was above average for the position. Kody Clemens wRC+ was 95 while major league second basemen had an overall wRC+ of 90. His OAA and DRS are both positive for last year and his career at 2B. Last year his OPS as a Twin against right handed pitching was .797 which is far above the league OPS for a 2B. Mix that with an above average glove at 2B and that has to help the team win games.
  5. jorgenswest
    Catcher Wilson Ramos at 16 for 27,000. For context top bonuses at the time were over 2 million. Top catcher that class was Jesus Montero who signed for 1.65 million.
  6. jorgenswest
    Good find. Escobar was the #12 prospect in 2010. They also received Odorizzi who was #69. Jeffers also made top 100 lists. Cain is not listed as ever making a top 100 list but he had a solid few months with an OPS of .763 before returning to the minors with the Royals the next year and showing some power he hadn’t previously shown. I just don’t think those kinds of trade happen in this decade. Not only did the Royals get an elite prospect but they received two other top 100 players and Cain who significantly outperformed his prospect status. If the Twins can get that elite level prospect plus another I am in. The Twins don’t need to trade right now to get a guy like Cain as a Brewer. They need to identify someone who is going to be a lot better than his prospect ranking as they did Joe Ryan and like the Royals did with Cain. I am not saying never trade Buxton or Ryan. I just need the return to be someone in that #12 range plus more. I said the same thing about Duran. I don’t want them to settle for a couple of FV50 or FV 45 players. They can’t wait to make that deal.
  7. jorgenswest
    The 162 matter to me this year much more than the tiny chance trades could turn the roster into a World Series winner down the road. It wasn’t trades that turned the Astros into a World Series winner. It was high draft choices after several awful years. The Orioles went the awful year path and had the several top draft choices. No rings yet and that path has been shut down with the draft lottery. When was the last time a team tore it down completely and then rebounded to win the World Series via players they acquired in trade? It certainly wasn’t the Astros. They needed those top draft picks. The Twins need right handed outfielders. They plan to play aggressively and need speed. The inexperienced pitchers need defense behind him. Why not keep a player at his peak value and enjoy more of the 162?
  8. jorgenswest
    A bone spur is often caused by repeated stress in younger people. If that repeated stress on his left wrist was playing first base then what is to stop it from occurring again. He didn’t start playing 1B regularly until 2024 and then wrist trouble. In 2023 he was a right fielder and was drafted as a two player. The reports are that he is athletic enough to be a right fielder and he certainly has the arm. That might need to be his position. He really crushes the ball. His exit velocity in AAA is a notch above Wallner with similar strike out rates but he is doing it at 20 years old. The Twins need this bat. I would be really cautious about putting that repeated stress on his wrist though unless they have determined the cause was from a different source and that source isn’t his violent swing. The Twins need a great bat more than they need a 1B. Trade for him. Put him in RF or DH and bat him in the middle of the line up. Hope his wrist holds up. This is from Stanford Medicine’s Amy Ladd M.D. as reported by NBCSports Bay Area.
  9. jorgenswest
    The Giants report he is expected to recover from his October surgery by spring training. They went in a did a clean up. What caused the problem? Is that fixed? Is he going to be able to handle the force of the number of throw a first baseman takes on that wrist? Is his normal going to be wrist pain with the workload of a first baseman?
  10. jorgenswest
    Any starters that are relievers this year are not locked into a relief role. That transition back to starter can even happen during the year. There are several starters that appeared in the all star game last year that were relievers. Abel has 43 AAA starts. Last year he was extremely effective in both Lehigh Valley and St. Paul. He needs to be in the major leagues facing major league hitters. Festa has 25 AAA starts pitching effectively. Matthews dominated in his AAA starts last year. They both need to be facing major league hitters. If Prielipp dominates in the spring he needs to be facing major league hitters. Those are four really good arms that give me hope for the bullpen this year. Maybe one of them takes a spot from Bradley or Woods Richardson. If that happens I have hope for them in the bullpen also.
  11. jorgenswest
    I just read a 2021 study in recovery of players following arthroscopic wrist surgery. This next part seemed relevant. Eldridge is a right handed thrower. His surgery was on his left wrist. Note: quotes were taken from the Discussion portion of the report.
  12. jorgenswest
    Beyond his individual value to the 2026 season Jeffers may bring additional value. The Twins have a lot of young pitchers. Does his experience offer value in developing those pitchers? Does that value offset a few FV40 prospects?
  13. jorgenswest
    Very True. This probably belongs somewhere else. They may want to move salary to get under their team set limit.
  14. jorgenswest
    If there is a plan the Twins are in uncharted territory. They traded three key bullpen pieces and Correa off of the 2026 roster. Can they rebuild that bullpen among the many young starters they have? Will their experiment with the three day rest longer outing from the pen something they will use from their bullpen this year? The Brewers trade off bullpen arms and replenish with inexpensive pieces that they get from DFA trades, waivers claims and prospects. They don’t so it all at once though. That territory is uncharted. The key is the Correa dollars combined with the savings of nearly 11 million that Jax and Duran are earning this year. Do they reinvest that money in the team? They reinvested the Berrios dollars in Gray and that turned out well for them in the 2023 playoff run. My biggest question is the commitment from the owners. Small to mid market teams need to be out front on change. They can’t win by following the path of large market teams. I am happy to go with the bullpen experiment but they need a middle of the order bat. As of the 2025 update in Fangraphs no one has more FV45 or better prospects than the Twins. Will they use some of that prospect capital and saved salary dollars to acquire a bat?
  15. jorgenswest
    Did Kelbert Ruiz just become a bad contract in the eyes of the Nationals? Do they need him and Ford? I think his contract has 5 years and 35 million left (5,5,7,9,9). His concussion issues make him a real risk. The Twins would need a pretty good player and the Nationals would need to take on some salary.
  16. jorgenswest
    It would have been nice if they could have turned one of their three relievers they traded at the deadline into Ford. I guess the difference is the age of Ferrar and the number of years on control compared to the Twins trio. He also meets the Mariners need of a lefty which the Twins couldn’t provide. I would bet on Ford over Tait but I get why the Mariners were seeking a younger pre arb lefty as the price for Ford. I wonder if they could have made a Ford for Prielipp deal this winter without adding to much to the deal. At this point they really need Prielipp also. The Twins surplus is a guy like Rodriguez but that might not fit what the Mariners were seeking.
  17. jorgenswest
    I do appreciate that they didn’t trade Kepler when he had two years of service time for a couple of middling prospects. He was one of their WAR leaders among position players in 2023 and was critical to their success that led to their first series win in two decades. The Twins acquired Duran in a rental deal for Escobar. The acquired Ryan in a rental deal for Cruz. Unless they are going to get someone in the top 15 to 20 of the FV55-70 group they were wise to wait until the deadline. In the 2025 updat there are 252 players that are FV45-50. It matters most that they identify the ones that will outperform that future valuation rather than feeling the pressure to deal early. I would add that I also appreciate the deal for Berrios where they sold his 1+ year of control in a lost season. The key to that deal was reinvesting and acquiring 2 years of Gray who fit in that same salary range. They moved 1 useful year of Berrios for 2 of Gray added two promising players and a comp pick while losing Petty. Those three deals and retaining Kepler all mattered for the 2023 success. For me each game this season matters. If someone wants to give them an elite prospect I won’t argue otherwise I look forward to seeing Ryan, Lopez and Buxton in a Twins uniform this year.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is fWAR a good tool to measure value at catcher? If that catcher is also playing DH there will be a significant negative hit to his positional value and ultimately his fWAR. If it is possible to parse out fWAR while playing catcher then playing time will be a factor if a team chooses to rotate catchers. I do know that over the last three years Jeffers has a wRC+ of 117. That would be 5th among qualified catchers over that time but that doesn’t take into account some catchers with very good bats have joined the league in the last two years. Last year his wRC+ of 113 ranked 11th among players where catcher is their primary position. His defense is below average but I really don’t think he is a below the median catcher. I will concede the point to avoid arguing whether he might be just above or just below. I do believe he is vastly better than the catchers that the Twins would be able to acquire to replace him given the resources they are willing to spend. That pool of catchers may be outside the top 50.
  19. jorgenswest
    Would Jeffers be beneficial to developing the pitching staff? Does it make a difference going into the season that he knows most of the pitchers? Does that have enough value to wait until the deadline? I don’t know the answer to these questions but I do know that this is a team sport. Players have value beyond the stat line. There is the unmeasured value of how much they contribute to the growth and success of their teammates. i certainly would not be in the “take the best offer you can get” mode with Jeffers. Short of being blown away, I think I would treat him as if he just signed a one year deal and let him help the team and contribute to the development of the pitching staff until the deadline.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would love for them to acquire a 1B that is set in the position for a few years. I don’t think you can find that in the under 15 million dollar range. They either need to spend or develop that pre arb player themselves. They can’t develop a 1B if they keep dipping into the one year team friendly free agent bin. Short of acquiring a fixture I would go with the options they have now. There is some hope in Clemens in that he underperformed his contact numbers last year. There is some hope in Roden who played 1B/OF in college and has a strong track record of hitting in the minors. I think the fixture is Keaschall. His defense at 2B was questionable before the two injuries. I guess it will take time to know if his bat works there but he will have a major league career because of his bat. If his bat isn’t enough at first it probably isn’t enough for a poor defensive 2B. At 2B the Twins could play Martin opening up space for Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins or Gonzalez in the outfield. They also could play Clemens until Culpepper arrives. Clemens is solid defensively at 2B also and ultimately appears to be a good fit on the bench with his ability to play 5 positions.
  21. jorgenswest
    Should we be concerned about his BABIP last year which was much higher than his career BABIP entering the season? Any concern that his xBA and xSLG are much lower than his actuals likely driven by BABIP?
  22. jorgenswest
    I do appreciate Rosenthal’s report that the Twins do not plan on trading Ryan. Lopez and Buxton. That is the public position they should be taking. He adds that it will take an overwhelming offer to get any of the three. It should take an overwhelming offer. I don’t expect they will get that offer.
  23. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t the odds be based on how the expect people to bet ? If the bettors believe the Twins are going to trade from Ryan, Lopez and Buxton then wouldn’t they have to set the line accordingly?
  24. jorgenswest
    Would part of the Vegas line be the expectation that the Twins were likely to trade from the core?
  25. jorgenswest
    What does a viable late inning reliever look like? The Mariners had a long stretch of trading away their late inning relievers including Sewald their closer in a year they were buyers. The Brewers trade away their late inning relievers as they become expensive. Neither sign established viable late inning relievers. The Guardians don’t sign viable late inning relievers. Look at their projected bullpens. All 24 of these players were acquired in prospects in trade or waiver claims or DFA pick ups or low draft choices or minor league free agents signings or minor trades. They do not use any prospect resources or free agent dollars to build their pens. There is one player of the 24 with a significant contract in Munoz and his AAV of 7 million. I should not that Clase comes in next with a 5 year 20 million dollar contract (AAV of 4 million) though he is not on the projected roster. Maybe this is how the Guardians, Mariners and Brewers do it. They gather a bunch of good inexpensive arms and it works itself out.
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