jorgenswest

I concede that his future value is significantly more than double it will be next offseason if he continues at the same performance level, I don’t think they will get anywhere near that extra value. I need to be convinced. I need to see comps. I do believe that that teams were much more willing to trade top flight prospects last decade so there may be some from the teens. I don’t think that is true now. Are there any similar (all star level or something around his 125 ERA+) starting pitchers traded with two full years of service time within the last three or four years? Did the get that greatly increased deal? Last year Luzardo was traded with two years of service. The return was disappointing. stealing Caba is an FV45 and Boyd isn’t listed among the Marlins top 60 prospects. Luzardo is different. He came off a poor year that was mixed with injury. The Marlins motivation to trade him was not the added prospect value for the extra year. They didn’t want to pay his arb2 salary. Crochet’s return was pretty good but he was traded with one year of service time left. Two years ago Burnes was traded with one year left. I don’t see any Ryan level starting pitcher traded with more than one year left. Theee years ago the Marlins were at it again. They traded Pablo Lopez with two years of service time. Though not an all star he was close to Ryan. I am confident that the Marlins regret both the deal for Luzardo and the deal for Lopez. I don’t think there were any four season ago. Going any further back in the COVID season and the last decade. I don’t see any other recent comps of trading a starter of Ryan’s level with at least two full years of service time. I think the argument that the value is greatly reduced is correct in theory but not in practice. That is probably why teams (other than the Marlins) aren’t moving those starters with two years service time anymore. I fear the Twins motivation is the same as the Marlins with Luzardo. They don’t want to pay the arb2 salary and will be willing to accept reduced value to get him off the books.

That would show the commitment that the Pohlad’s spoke about when they decided not to sell. He could be a buy low as his slash stats were down last year. His quality of contact numbers were in line with his career numbers as were his strikeout and walk numbers. His BABIP was much lower than career norms. This Twins have the prospect pool to make this deal.

Yes. Agree. They traded him in his last year of control. The Twins should follow that Burnes path with Ryan.

I don’t think rebuilding is about selling as much as it is about building. In order to rebuild they need the building blocks and you need to use them. They also need a foundation to build upon. After the midseason trades no one has more FV45 or better prospects than the Twins. they have 16. That doesn’t include the recent graduates like Keaschall, Martin, Lee, Bradley, Woods Richardson, Festa, Matthews and even Wallner, Lewis and Julien. That is a full roster of players with upside and prospect pedigree. They are the building blocks. Adding more only diminishes their ability to provide opportunities. The second piece is the opportunity. They need to use these blocks. It may be a roller coaster of their first 1500 plate appearances. They are going to need a manager that will put them in the line up over the decline phase team friendly contract veteran. The third piece that helps is a foundation. They need a veteran presence from which to build. That veteran presence needs to be established starters and not aging veterans on the bench. The Twins have the three elements they need to build. They have the prospect pool. They have the playing time opportunity. They have the foundation in Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers.

Thanks

A batter with a career wRC+ of 131 and 4 years of service time must have a pretty good value that at least approaches a mid 100s FV50 prospect. Emmanuel Rodriguez? They were ranked similarly by Fangraphs. I wonder how BTV values them.

I am not sure Culpepper matches the prospect status of players that jump quickly into the majors. Perhaps the rankings are wrong about him but he appears to be a third or fourth tier prospect. Those guys mostly become major leaguers. They hover between 50 and 150 in the rankings. He is not among the top 10 shortstop prospects in the MLB pipeline. Fangraphs has him at an FV 45+ and number 22 at SS. I think he is better than that. Those rankings should change this winter. If he moves to an FV55 in Fangraphs those are the kinds of players that might skip a level. I look forward to seeing how he is viewed after the midseason rankings.

I wonder if the Mariners would be looking to replace some power that they lost in free agency. How close would Wallner be to matching Harry Ford’s value?

I think an argument to be made that no catcher was run on more than Caratini. He is in a virtual tie with Augustin Ramirez in most stolen bases per 9. Ramirez was a rookie. He will probably get better. Caratini was in his 9th major league season. He probably won’t. In just 408 innings he allowed 57 stolen bases while throwing out only 7. The meager 408 innings should also stand out. That is only 28% of the Astros catcher load last year. The last and only time he was the primary catcher for a team was 2021. That wasn’t the catching plan for the Padres. Austin Nolan made three visits to the IL missing more than half the season. Even as a back up with the Twins he is bound to see over 700 innings at catcher as long as he stays healthy. No team in his 9 years has gone into the season with a plan to play him that much at catcher. Would it be wise to have that plan going into his age 32 season?

Miranda had one season as a prospect where his future value was above 40+. Even in his 2022 report he was an FV50 and came in at #91. He was also ranked 90th and 95th by MLB and Baseball America. He was not seen by those publications as a future star. A few players with that pedigree become stars but most bounce in and out of the majors. At his prospect peak Fangraphs wrote… There was hope that he could grow beyond that. He didn’t and his success often hinged on streaks of a high BABIP. Without a position where he helped defensively he really needed to be more selective at the plate. When he toned down his aggressive approach to be more selective he also took from away his one strength at the plate.

I think everyone on the 2026 roster needs to have some possibility of upside or be an established starter.

561 plate appearances or 58% more.

If they share the opportunity between Beckham and Altuve do they find either? Altuve is an 93 OPS+ after three years and 1536 PAs. If don’t think he makes the same progress if he is on the bench twice a week.

I watched Altuve play several games in the California League. He really stood out. We had no doubt that he would be a major leaguer. We had no idea he would be a Hall of Famer. I think it helped quite a bit that he played nearly every day instead of 2 of 3. He needed a lot of major league plate appearances to become an average major league hitter much less one with impact. If they gave that same time to JD Martinez I think they make a better decision about him as he enters his fourth year in the majors. That is where I think we disagree some on the use of the 13 position players on the roster. I would want to give near every day playing time to the players I think will make an impact. That will take some predetermination. I will make mistakes. If I am playing Martinez every day that is going to reduce the opportunity for Grossman or Hoes or Paredes or maybe all. These were all good prospects that were prizes in trades for Wandy Rodriguez, Bud Norris and Lance Berkman respectively. They had too many outfielders and nobody was playing every day. All, including Martinez, were released after three years in the majors. Teams need to know after three years. Beyond three years players run out of options and they get more expensive as they enter the arbitration years.

They have time with Ryan and Lopez. The return they will get will not be that much different if they wait. Ryan and Lopez will also help the other develop. Their innings will help the bullpen. I think their is wisdom in holding in to them to begin the season and reassess at the deadline or next winter. They don’t have the same time with Jeffers. They can wait until the deadline. He will be helpful to the young pitchers. I am not sure how much value he returns either. He may be more valuable helping this staff develop. All 162 matter to me.

I would think that choosing not to pick up Topa’s option is also an indicator that they don’t plan to take him to arbitration.

In the spring of 2023 the DFA’d or released Trevor Megill, Jeff Hoffman and Danny Coulombe. Hoffman and Coulombe joined the Twins on minor league deals. Megill was claimed on waivers. There are relievers out there like them without success on their resumes yet. They probably wouldn’t make anyone’s list. They need to identify them and this time recognize their potential.

I agree. I was just really interested when you said “from what I am hearing”. Your math is good. I wonder about those other 28 spots. They are allowed to fill a some of those with players earning beyond the minimum either by trade or free agency. I am skeptical that they will. I haven’t heard anything sourced from them yet though. Going back to the beginning of our exchange it is that “hearing” phrase that caught my curiosity.

Those are payroll baselines based on today. They are not sourced information about their future plans for this off season. I personally think they will be at or under 100 million. That is my speculation and not based on any sourced information about the Twins plans for the future.

What is your source?

The Red Sox had a pretty good roster and the payroll flexibility to give him a chance. I am not sure anyone can be successful in the Twins circumstance.

I think the best staffs are very good at predetermination. Playing time at the majors is limited. I don’t think any organization can afford to give all of their players that reach the 40 the necessary playing sample to determine. Successful small and mid market teams will be good at determining the likelihood of success prior to arrival at the majors We need the Twins to be very good at projecting as players arrive at the majors. Play Brooks Lee nearly every day. Bet on him and approach 1500 PAs. Maybe then you need to move on. Let them struggle and keep playing them. Everyday day. Have your answer prior to arbitration. Don’t waste too many days on the bench or you still want know when you get to arbitration. Look at the Astros after they tore it down. After trades and drafts they had a lot of good prospects in the system. They played Altuve virtually every day for 2+ seasons. After 1536 plate appearances he was still a below average hitter (93 OPS+) but they won that bet. He really payed off as he it his arbitration years. They were also probably lucky he arrived a year or so below the prospect bubble. Gonzalez and Villar didn’t arrive until later and Altuve was established playing everyday before their arrival. Once the prospect bubble hit they missed on a few trying to give playing time to too many. They had a glut of outfielders. All young. All good prospects with success in the minors. Some were prized prospects acquired in trade, They should have bet on JD Martinez. He had just 975 PAs after three years with the Astros and they didn’t tender him as he entered his arb years. With the glut of young outfield prospects they were splitting playing time among Martinez, Jordan Schafer, Chris Johnson, Brian Bogusevic, Fernando Martinez, LJ Hoes, Brandon Barnes and Robbie Grossman. All struggled as prearb players. None were taken to arbitration. They would have better betting on a few. They should have determined that Martinez was the guy. It wasn’t just outfielders. They missed on Jonathan Villar who was splitting time in the infield until he made it to arbitration. The DFA’d him and moved him in a minor trade to Milwaukee after three years. His first year in Milwaukee he stole 62 bases with an OPS+ of 117 playing shortstop everyday for them. Of course they were so bad they could afford to miss. Springer, Correa and Bregman were in the way. No splitting time for them. No team has more FV45 and better prospects than the Twins. They also have several recent graduates that aren’t at arbitration yet including Wallner, Keaschall, Lee, Martin, Julien, Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa and Bradley. They need to bet on the right guys and they need to be good at it. Bet of Roden or not. Let’s not end the year with plate appearances in the 300s. They can’t waste too many of their prearb days on the bench or they will still be wondering as they hit arbitration.

Francona had Schilling, Rolen for all 4 years and Abreu for 3 in Philadelphia. The Phillies payroll was not near the bottom of baseball in that time. Bill Simmons wrote early in his Red Sox career Clearly learning happened for Francona and he grew into a very good manager when he wasn’t one in Philadelphia. We can only hope that Shelton has learned and grown from his failures in Pittsburgh. It is possible. Francona is an example.

What is the confusion? This happens every offseason. They needed to open some spots on the 40. Others will be moved when more open spots are needed. No need to remove them now. It is also not time to fret about the 40 man. There will be plenty of movement before opening day, That they are aiming higher than Laweryson, Misiewicz, Hatch, Tonkin and Cabrera for the bullpen was good news to me.

The Twins shouldn’t go free agency unless they can get someone Naylor or better. Anyone below at best delays the problem a year and at worst are given many at bats while performing at a mediocre level. They should consider a trade of prospects for someone that is above average for a 1B. The Cardinals are looking to deal Contreras but there will be the no trade clause hurdle there. Some good bats will be moved this winter and the Twins have the prospect capital to win those deals. Failing a significant investment in dollars for a free agent or prospects for an established veteran they should go with Roden and if he fails slide Keaschall over or go back to Clemens.