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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think Ohl and Pereda with their options can be helpful on a 40 man roster. I am not going to get into the order in which players are removed because there will be more removals before opening day. The order won’t matter when we get to opening day. I will infer that the Twins must see someone else among their AAA catcher group that they see as the third catcher ready for call up from AAA. It must be Cardenas or Olivar. I am hoping the Ohl clears waivers. I also realize that when the Twins are waiving players that are claimed by other teams that does point to some depth they have built. Right now it is is a revolving door of depth as they are utilizing their early claim position to build that depth of players on the cusp of the major leagues.
  2. jorgenswest
    The deal for Gore is a bad one for the Nationals. Texas has one good prospect and they didn’t get him. The return for Peralta and Myers is similar to the return the Twins received for Berrios with the exception that they didn’t need to give up another good arm but did give up a two months of Berrios. Myers has a 3.15 ERA in 188 major league innings with 5 years of control left. I don’t think the Brewers got near enough for 1 year of Peralta and 5 years of Myers. I wonder if the Giants had offered them Eldridge. That seems like a better offer. Maybe they had contend about the wrist. Teams don’t trade top flight talent any longer.
  3. jorgenswest
    Topa is old but not really a veteran. He has just less than 150 innings. The many I experienced relievers will benefit from a voice from a veteran. Hawkins’ voice will be important also but Rogers will be doing it. That voice will matter more if he pitches effectively.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is that simple. His cutter was his 4th most used pitch against left handed batters and third against right handed batters, He gave up two extra base hits with his cutter last year (1 double and 1 home run). Most of the damage was singles. Lefties happened to get those two extra base hits but now we are making decisions on results from 20 at bats. Is that wise?
  5. jorgenswest
    Wagaman was a rookie last year. He was given the playing time of a regular. He played better in the second half. He has options. They need players with options on the 40 in AAA. Seems like he has a better chance to be helpful to the organization than Kade Bragg. Give a chance to win a job in the spring but don’t write him on the roster. I don’t have any issue with this minor trade.
  6. jorgenswest
    They are spending money at catcher because they failed to develop them or acquire them pre arb. Long term that has been addressed with the three teenagers they have acquired. Short term they are spending more at catcher. By 2028 they may have two pre arb catchers on the roster. I have no problems with them spending the dollars on Caratini or spending 15 million dollars on the position. Four and five years ago they were constantly spending to try to fill the back of the rotation with guys like Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Archer and others. Now they have younger guys in the back end of the rotation and catcher needs addressing.
  7. jorgenswest
    It was necessary and they did really well adding the three promising ten age catchers. hope that Tait is in the majors sometime at 27. I am also hoping someone from the current AA and AAA group emerges as a back up option.
  8. jorgenswest
    The Twins have a better roster. It was a good move. I would hold onto Jeffers now and risk losing Jackson to DFA. There might be a team willing to overpay in season if they are hit by a significant injury and the best available catcher is Sandy Leon. In the meantime let’s hope at least one of Cardenas, Olivar, Crosetti, Winkel or Baez takes a step forward and is worthy of giving a shot as a back up to Caratini mid season. Otherwise they will have Pereda and maybe Jackson as the floor.
  9. jorgenswest
    Jackson was DFA’d in September 2024 without being claimed so he has been a fringe player for a while. Caratini is not a fringe player. Good upgrade. I am sure Caratini was hoping the Phillies job would be open for him but I am glad he is in Minnesota.
  10. jorgenswest
    The only example I can think of is Varland ending the season with a successful run as a Twins reliever in ‘23 and then returning to starter in ‘24. It is a waste of time to argue whether it is never or almost never though. I do wonder if he is changing his stance on moving back to starter from reliever since they haven’t acquired cheap solutions for the bullpen. I think he is planning on using some of the young starters. The Twins are going to need some of them to start down the road. I also am not worried about the “never” because I don’t think Falvey is “forever”. If this doesn’t work and the Twins are not buyers at the deadline I think he is gone. Someone new coming in is going to have an open mind to all roster possibilities. They aren’t going to have a fixed mind that a bullpen arm can’t be a starter.
  11. jorgenswest
    A closer might be needed three days in a row or not needed for three days. I would use him more like the White Sox used Chris Sale to start his major league career. They had him in relief to manage his arm. His first season (partial) he began by pitching with two days rest between each outing. By the end there were two occasions where he pitched back to back. In his second season he rarely pitched back to back and never three days in a row. Of his 58 appearances 37 were across multiple innings. He did have 8 saves that year and 4 the year before but was never the closer. After that first full year he transitioned to starter.
  12. jorgenswest
    As a prospect Vidal Brujan had the kind of top flight status I am expecting to get in return for a Joe Ryan. Brujan peaked in 2019 and an FV60 with Fangraphs. The reality of Major League Baseball is that even the top flight prospects often don’t make it. It looks like he can play SS with a -4 career OAA and a +4 career DRS and really anywhere in the outfield or infield. He can run bases. I don’t think the 2018 minor league Brujan with a wRC+ of 150 and 55 stolen bases exists anymore but maybe a bench bat with positional flexibility that can run and has enough bat to put up a wRC+ in the 80s is there.
  13. jorgenswest
    Isn’t Nico Hoerner a free agent after this season? Seems like Shaw is a perfect fit there. I am sure a team can get Shaw with an overpay right now. Long term he has a fit in the Cubs line up and they should be reluctant to trade him.
  14. jorgenswest
    I am not confident this is true. I am confident it will be reported as fact by many future posts on TD. Fangraphs has not done their postseason update for the Twins. We do have that from MLB. Their pipeline has rising to number 10. I think if the Twins were offered Norm McLean at number 11 Joe would have been traded to the Mets. I think if they were offered number 7 Basallo from the Orioles Joe would have been traded. The A’s De Vries was in some rumors but I am sure he wasn’t offered to the Twins for Ryan. The only player on the top 20 that may have been offered was the Giants first basemen Eldridge. That is a hard offer to take given his left wrist injury and surgery. If he didn’t play first base and had to take the stress of every throw it might be different. I posted earlier the medical analysis of that injury and the challenge for first basemen. I am guessing they were offered multiple FV45 to 50 level talent much like the offer for Berrios. As of the deadline no team had more players in that group than the Twins. They need to get that top flight talent like Jenkins. If there is sourced reporting that they turned down players in the Jenkins range like Basallo or McLean I will join you in my disappointment that he wasn’t moved. Prospects like that rarely get moved this decade. i think that is why Joe Ryan is still a Twin. Maybe it is why Skubal is still a Tiger. Once those kinds of offers become a reality we might need to wait for Skubal to move before Ryan.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t think there is any question he is a leader and will be valuable in the clubhouse. Jose Bell been nominated twice by two different teams for the Roberto Clemente award. The award honors a player who best represents baseball through extraordinary character, community involvement, and philanthropy. Pablo Lopez has been a recent Twins nominee and was also nominated by the Marlins.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t know if he earns a spot in the starting rotation. I do believe that facing major league hitters is best for his development. He has dominated AAA. If he doesn’t make the rotation he needs to be in the bullpen.
  17. jorgenswest
    Concur. That is why I appreciate they added those three very young catchers to the pipeline. Relative to other teams I believe they now have a lot of depth. Tait should reach AA sometime this year. They have nothing that appears to be starting quality in 2027 short of extending Jeffers.
  18. jorgenswest
    He threw out runners last year at a respectable rate. He should be considered. Jair Camargo was elite at this skill but Tommy John surgery probably derailed his chances. His arm was his ticket to the majors and hopefully it can return to that 40+% rate of throwing out runners. The Braves have signed him to a minor league deal.
  19. jorgenswest
    Susac has a wRC+ of 94 in AAA last year. You need to be a pretty good defensive player to make it to the majors with that below average wRC+ in AAA. Susac’s hit tool scouting grade in Fangraphs is 30/35. Jackson is the better defender and had a 100 plate appearance sample with a major league wRC+ of 111. His wOBA was much better than his xwOBA so there is some luck there. I doubt either will have a wRC+ better than 80 in the majors next year but I would take Jackson’s glove and experience over Susac. If the Twins could have put Susac in the minors to get a lot of playing in hopes of improving his bat he would have been a worthwhile add.
  20. jorgenswest
    Kepler’s 20.5 baseball reference WAR as a Twin is worthy of consideration to be in the Twins Hall of Fame. Playing the same position Michael Cuddyer had 12.8 as a Twin. Corey Koskie was a recent inductee with 22.1. Morneau at 22.9. Dan Gladden had 5.7 but he was also a long time broadcaster. I think there are three retired players with over 20 WAR on the team that have not been elected to the Twins HOF in Dave Goltz, Roy Smalley and Brian Dozier. I would put them in first. Goltz has the greatest WAR among the three. Chuck Knoblauch was elected but not enshrined. His transgressions are not a comp for Kepler’s. Assuming the evidence for Kepler is from this off-season I don’t see any reason it would keep him out. The Twins are going to elect someone every year to have that celebratory weekend. If Kepler is ever the best candidate his post Twins steroid use shouldn’t keep him out. Right now there are better candidates and he will be behind Buxton when they both are retired.
  21. jorgenswest
    Looked up pipeline a few different places. from Merriam-Webster Going with the idiom “in the pipeline” Edit: just read @mikelink45 post. I asked Google “Does a baseball organizations pipeline includes players acquired in trades for minor leaguers?” The AI overview I think it is fair to call this our catching pipeline as of today. I am glad they added to that pipeline the acquisitions of Tait, Jimenez and Caraballo. Those are promising young players. The pipeline as it stands today does not seem adequate to fill the needs for 2027 though.
  22. jorgenswest
    In general based on AAA data that is true. I am sure there are done pitchers that will be very good at it as well as catchers that do poorly. It will be very valuable to have a catcher that has an elite ability to identify a strike from a called ball,
  23. jorgenswest
    Realmuto’s offensive numbers dipped but they are still good relative to catchers. He threw out runners well but his framing has dropped. That will be less important next year. He handles the pitching staff well. BAT X sees him bouncing back some. I would give him 2 years and around 24 million. I think the Phillies will also and this is just noise to get him to sign. The Twins ought to jump in and make an agreement with Realmuto while trading Jeffers to the Phillies for prospects.
  24. jorgenswest
    I look forward to seeing Keaschall with a healthy arm. He may have had some good luck with his balls in play but he also had bad luck with the injuries. His healthy arm will help in the field also.
  25. jorgenswest
    Speed is a component of xwOBA. In the list of players who outperformed their wOBA according to their contact you see players like Naylor and Raleigh that don’t have elite speed out of the batter’s box. You will see some faster guys in the list of players that underperformed. Both his xwOBA and wOBA were strong and that is encouraging for next year. Buxton’s difference of 19 is among the larger among starters but not in the top 10 of that list and maybe something that comes with that elite end of really solid contact. Keaschall is a different story. His xwOBA was significantly lower than his wOBA. He needs an above average at bat to mix in with his below average glove at 2B or fit on a corner. I think he will improve his contact numbers as he returns to health. He was lucky last year with his slash stats but can trade better health and experience for that luck and still perform above league average. Roden didn’t play enough or with consistency for any of these numbers to be meaningful.
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