jorgenswest

from Google AI In Major League Baseball, a player may be eligible for a fourth option year if they have used their three standard options but have not yet completed five full seasons of professional baseball. This is most common for players who spend time in the lower minor leagues or miss significant playing time due to injury. Who is eligible for a fourth option? A player qualifies for a fourth option year if they meet all of the following conditions: They have used all three of their regular options. They have less than five "full seasons" of professional experience. What counts as a "full season"? For the purpose of the fourth-option rule, a full professional season is defined as any season in which a player accrues at least 90 days of active service on either a major league or minor league roster. Time spent on the injured list can sometimes contribute to the 90-day total, but only after a minimum number of active days are logged. Rookie-level leagues and other short-season minor leagues, which have seasons shorter than 90 days, are often a key reason a player doesn't reach the "five full seasons" threshold and becomes eligible for a fourth option.

I don’t think they saw Outman as a two month rental. They must have seen the risk though. He is a legit centerfielder and as long as he can hit passably he is a good option as the CF on the bench. They have the winter to work with him and get him to that passable level. He has hit in the minors and hit in his full season. It is a risk but there is upside. If he can get his bat into to the Michael Taylor range he will probably have a spot on the bench in the majors. They took the risk and they need to be able to take the loss and move on if doesnt improve his hitting. Rodriguez and Jenkins are coming soon and play centerfield. Outman probably has until they are ready to show he is a passable or better hitter.

The Pirates have had a top 10 ranked prospect pool for several years running. I looked at the last 14 Fangraphs team rankings and they are top 10 in 13 of 14. They are top 5 in many. I have wondered if there is a relationship between prospect ranking and winning. Those strong prospect rankings have not translated to winning for the Pirates.

I will take two seasons and a comp pick from Ryan. I would not move him until the deadline in 2027. I am not going to worry about injury or labor dispute. Teams get 6 years of control of a player. The last three are often better than the first three. Keep him through his prime and then move on.

I don’t know where they are headed. I will pay attention to where they are. No reason to brood about where they are going until they get there.

It really isn’t about happiness. It isn’t about winning the World Series. Each of the 162 games matter next year. Their starting pitching can make many of those games competitive. More competitive if they keep the core, bet on the upside of young position players and identify arms for the bullpen.

I am torn here. I want a competitive team in 2026. My previous take would be to bet on the long term if your a 92 loss team. I would bet on Culpepper and Lee. I would roster Fitzgerald. I would look for the Willi Castro types out there seeking a fresh start. The Twins looked to have opportunity at the time he signed as Correa was a free agent at the time. I think middle infielders needing fresh start would see the opportunity. Sign a few and hope for a Castro. On the other hand if they want to sign Bo Bichette you won’t hear an argument from me.

All seem promising

Seems like it is the same debate we had about Farmer. He was said by some to be easy to tender and trade. The Twins were left stuck with the contract and replacement level performance. Young players were in AAA while he had a roster spot. Perhaps some believe Larnach has excess value beyond the 4.7 million. Is it enough excess value to take the risk that he will be holding a roster spot all year?

AI summary from google The metrics heavily based on pitch framing and stolen bases do not favor Suzuki well. Scherzer believes in him. Though. It is hard to measure leadership, game calling, the ability to communicate and a presence that provides confidence. These are probably skills that translate to the manager role. My guess is this information was scraped from reports in 2019 when the Nationals won the World Series. I am not sure what the 2025 Scherzer would say about Suzuki today. Does he still see that same leadership, communication and game calling skills?

Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him. note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55 is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.

I just wonder if those 2 million dollar back ups need to have close to an average glove to get those dollars. Playing a passable major league catcher is high bar. I am not sure that Pereda meets it and it seems clear that Gasper does not. Is passable glove and no bat enough for a back up?

Maybe his slow start makes him attainable.

I have wondered about this. I wonder if catching is so difficult that the catchers that tend to be available are ones with a passable glove and little ability to hit. I wonder if the ones that have good gloves, call a good game and work with pitchers well all have jobs and aren’t easily acquired during the season.

Really appreciate the work. There are successful managers in the list.

Isn’t part of being an elite defensive catcher physical skill that he may have been lacking? He must have brought something to catcher. He was not great at throwing out runners and led the league in stolen bases given up three times. He wasn’t a great framer. He must have been pretty good at those other hard to measure aspects of playing catcher or he wouldn’t not have had the lengthy career there. I think it is those hard to measure aspects that will translate to managing better than throwing out runners and framing pitches well.

Any current managers that have never been on a major league coaching staff or minor league manager or even college manager? Even a single season would bring a lot of learning.

After his first look in the majors the Giants may be a little more willing to move him. Expect lots of home runs, strike outs and some rough play at 1B. He has 27 errors at first base in 1658 innings. For comparison Clemens has 2 errors in 1134 professional innings. He may be ready to be DH by midseason with some more time in AAA trying to cut down strike outs. They will have to bet on his glove moving towards average at 1B. He is very young. With enough work in the minors his defense may get there. The bat will get there.

Mendez is starting in RF in the first game of the AFL. Reds prospect Cam Collier is at 1B.

Random first base thoughts… I have been wondering about first base. The league wRC+ at 1B in 2025 was 109. In 2024 it was 107. Twenty years ago it was 115 to 120. Is that a significant drop? For a player it wouldn’t be. For MLB the sample is over 20000 first base plate appearances in a season. I think it is significant. Why? Is it enough that we don’t have a Pujols in the 1B pool? Maybe. Oh! The DH in the NL may be a factor. Taking out the NL and there is still a decline. From 2002 to 2025 the median is 111. All of the 2020s are 111 or below. Is defense becoming more valued at 1B and as a result the bats have declined? I don’t know. Miranda had a wRC+ of 114 and 116 in his two seasons where he had very 400 plate appearances. Seems like he should have been that player in the middle of 1B play. I don’t know what happened this year. In those two seasons his xwOBA was 12 and 22 points below his wOBA suggesting there may have been some luck involved. The Twins must not have trusted those wRC+ numbers that were better than his actual contact. No reason to sign France if Miranda was that player. Looking at xwOBA and wOBA differential this year both Clemens and Julien have xwOBAs much greater than their wOBA suggesting their quality of contact was better than the results. Clemens was 4th on the team at .344 behind Fitzgerald, Buxton and Martin. In the other direction Keaschall’s xwOBA of .329 was 34 points below his actual wOBA. The league xwOBA was .298. Keaschall was 10% above the league. Julien was 13% above. Clemens with the Twins was 15% above. I would be more confident if his great month was his last one. His xwOBA in September was .338. In any case if a batter can hit 10% better than league average they are giving typical first base play. The Twins didn’t get that last year. They were 10% below. Going from 10% below to 10% above at this one position can make a difference. It doesn’t seem unreasonable to make that happen. Do they bet on anyone in the organization?

I hope he shows enough in his reps at 1B that he gets a chance to play there in the Fall League. It is possible that he doesn’t have the hands and feet to play 1B. For some reason he didn’t get that opportunity with the Brewers or Phillies. It seems like both of those organizations would take a look at all of their corner outfielders and see if they can play 1B.

I am with you on the adds. I wouldn’t add anyone else. That is really already too many adds. It will be difficult to manage the 40 next year if the majority of these players are not ready. As we knew at the deadline they are also very outfield heavy. In this case none of those four is a major league centerfielder. I know injuries had Fedko in centerfielder for the Surge but I don’t think he can play a passable centerfielder in the majors. I think they really need to risk leaving one of the four outfielders off the list. Maybe two. Looking back at the kinds of players kept in rule 5 pitchers dominate. It is easier to roster a 12th man on your pitching staff (the 13th needs to be able to shuttle back and forth). It is harder to stash a position player in that 13th spot. They really need to be someone who can play multiple positions and either centerfield or shortstop. They need to be able to pinch run. Otherwise they need to be able to hit so well that they are playing regularly. I think Gonzalez and Fedko with success in AAA are locks. Mendez is about a year and a half younger than Rosario. He is next. They might lose Rosario but I think I would risk it. I also think he will get returned when he struggles to hit. They just have too many outfielders. That is 7 adds so they should make room for 8. I think they should seek a pitcher for the bullpen in rule 5. I would only reduce the roster by 8 right now. They would be Tonkin, Hatch, Misiewicz, Cabrera, Funderburk, Gasper, Keirsey and Vazquez. The 40 man roster does not need to be in balance over the winter. Moves will be made. Larnach will likely be tendered and traded. Perhaps another outfielder or two will be traded. Miranda is moved in a minor deal or designated when they add a major league ready bat. They will find a catcher and Pereda will be removed. They will add a shortstop or Culpepper will anrrive and Fitzgerald will be removed. They will need a back up centerfielder and Outman can hold that spot until Rodriguez or Jenkins arrive. Maybe Roden is a strong enough centerfielder to move Outman off. As I look at it I don’t think it is wise to tender Topa because they will keep him at his arb salary in spite of decline and injury history. He also will have 5 years service time so he can’t be optioned. Maybe I should have had him in the 8. He could be better version of Dobnak if they would use him that way and be willing to designate him. I am sure someone will argue why keep _________ over Rosario. That really isn’t what I am doing. I am not keeping Miranda or Outman over Rosario. I am keeping them in that spot until they find someone to fill that spot that has a major league ready bat. I think Rosario needs more time in the minors and not ready to contribute from the 40. It would be hard to roster both Rosario and Mendez on the 40 and manage the roster next year through injuries and bullpen over use. Leaving Rosario off though is a risk. Is he ready to hit major league pitching? Teams can’t keep him as a versatile 4th outfielder. He needs to be ready to hit.

Do you value that more than the number of young players on the roster who have graduated from prospect status?

Why is farm system rank a factor? Is there a reliable relationship between farm system rank and future success? I think it would be far better to look at 25 and under major league plate appearances and innings. Throw top flight prospects into the mix after that. A 23 year old in the majors has more value than a 23 year old deemed not ready by their team in the minors. The Nationals ranked first with 3632 plate appearances by young players. The Twins had 774 plate appearances ranking 27th. The Nationals ranked third with 469.1 innings. The Twins were 7th with 353 innings. Has the farm system lagged? Is it possible that it has been productive as shown by the number of young players playing in the majors for the Nationals? If I am a manager with multiple job offers and young talent is a factor in my decision I am not going to look at prospect rankings. I am going to look at the 25 and under talent. The Nationals outpace the Twins by that measure and should be ahead of them in this ranking.

I feel the pain. I don’t hear the commitment that they promised. There was a road in the previous decade to trade off assets and get top flight prospects. That road has been closed. They aren’t going to turn things around by trading assets. The FV50 or FV40s assets they acquire will take too long to develop. If after a few years of up and down they do produce it will be time to trade them. My expectations are that they will trade Ryan for a very disappointing return. Sure they will get a few top 100 guys but not a top flight prospect. I bristle every time I hear the phrase top 100 as if it is a likelihood of success. Take a look at the #50 prospect in the MLB pipeline from 2011 to 2020. There is one player with a significant career in Wilson Contreras. The next best in Jedd Gyorko who had 2.6 WAR over three years for the Padres before being moved. He was their Julien with a good rookie season followed by two replacement level seasons. Nick Gordon ranks third of the 10. If you trade for the number 50 prospect you are lucky to get a Nick Gordon. If they think they can trade their way out of this and turn it around they better be one of the best in baseball in identifying the elite amidst a bunch of top 100 players that will mostly be replacement level.