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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Last Game Right Handed Starter June 11 - Keider Montero - Loss - Nil Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 3 Switch - 3 Left Season Record vs RH Starters: 22-26 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.42 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 9-13 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.77
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Yeah you are right on Super Two. I was thinking about that two to three week window to start the season that provides the extra year to keep them under that 172 service time thing. My fingers are typing quicker than my brain. At this point... I'm all for his getting a taste as soon as possible. Regardless of being 30 when he reaches free agency and that only happens if he isn't sent back down because there are also 3 options available to the club that can hold him until he is 33. But for a player that really really pans out. Isn't sent down... makes multiple all-star teams. That year of playing golf burning service time would still matter to the club. Much like the next CBA can't be predicted. Our needs in 2032 also can't be predicted. Anyway... I'm just throwing the thought out there. I'd love to see Culpepper in the bigs along with Jenkins and Erod. I'd like to see Fedko and Sabato at this point.
- 33 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- brooks lee
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Yeah I get that... but... And you are correct. We have no idea what the CBA will be. In this case... Elite Prospect. Not an average prospect. Those final years could be huge. You can't do anything about those who are already on the 40 man. For those not on the 40 man... it's a little different. Look at Royce Lewis and the service time that was lost due to his injuries. He's approaching 4 years of service time and we have about a year and half worth of AB's. Now you add in his struggles and by the time the performance ship is righted. He will be reaching free agency. I get that you do what's best for the team right now but... Well anyway... I don't think we will lose all of 2027. This is really just a thought. Apparently I'm the only one with such thoughts.
- 33 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- brooks lee
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I understand Super 2 and it's importance for gaining that extra year of control. However... You still lose a year. You may have gained a year with Super 2 but you still lose a full year if 2027 is lost. With Super 2... It's 7 years down to 6 and without Super 2 it's 6 years down to 5. It would still matter. And Yes... I understand players can be traded, signed to extensions. I fully agree with getting ready for 2027 and beyond. However... that lost year has to be a factor in the beyond part with any prospect with any prospect that currently has reasonable expectation attached to him of being good enough to have a lengthy career and therefore reach free agency. Again... I don't think it will come to that. These are just thoughts in general. Baseball would struggle to regain fans if the game was lost for a significant period of time. So... I'm hoping that both sides are aware of that and come to an agreement. It's also possible that a whole new service time thing is negotiated. I have no idea what to expect or if their are maneuver options available after adding.
- 33 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
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Understood but wouldn't the service time issue still be an issue. Let's say they call up Culpepper next week. He is added to the 40 man which starts the options clock and he is added to the 26 man and that starts his service time clock. Let's say that Culpepper stays on the 26 man roster for the rest of this season and he is exceptional. And then let's say that all of 2027 is lost due to a work stoppage. Wouldn't Culpepper burn a full year of service time in that scenerio. Again... I don't believe that scenario will happen but until there is an agreement collectively bargained... Who Knows. The players union will not make every concession and if they make any concessions at all... the service time accrued during the work stoppage will certainly be something that they will get in order to justify what they give.
- 33 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- brooks lee
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Agreed. Missing on a high pick isn't good but it can happen and it can also be the individual. However... when it starts happening frequently and spanning decades. You gotta start looking at the organization. The nightmare scenario would be to give up on Lewis. Sell low and have another team fix him and there he is pounding out a 1,000 OPS with the Yankees. I believe they should stick with him until he has decent trade value... but make sure that you have acceptable talent competing for his playing time in case he doesn't get it together.
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I have never seen a switch hitter hit right handed against a right hander or left handed vs a left hander. I would imagine that statistically the opportunity to consider it would present itself at some point during a switch hitter's career. Lets use Carlos Santana and Michael Wacha as examples. I just chose Wacha because he is the pitcher being discussed and I chose Carlos Santana because he's had a long career and he is very good guitar player. Santana's Career splits say that he is better hitting right handed. Wacha's career splits say that he is better at getting Left Handed hitters out. If you going to play the platoon split using the data that is available. Why wouldn't Carlos Santana hit from the right side against Wacha? It's a small sample but over the years. Santana has had 18 plate appearances against Wacha. He is 2 for 15 (Two Doubles). Again small sample stretching over 10 years from 2015 to 2025 so those numbers really don't mean much. However... Santana remaining a left handed batter against Wacha would be Santana facing a pitcher who is most dominant against his weakest side and entering into that disadvantage willingly. I mean if you are going to play the splits... then play the splits. You raise an interesting point.
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I have no proof but I have been paying close attention to roster composition for a couple of years with all 30 teams. I do have an unproven opinion that options available, patience for immediate performance and the allocation of spending and the lack of options with veteren players all play a significant role on "A minority of prospects working out". I'm not afraid of youth and just looking at the current MLB standings validates not being afraid of youth. The Rays, White Sox, Guardians, A's, Nationals, Marlins, Brewers and Cardinals are showing that youth isn't a death sentence. It is also possible that the perception of youth failing is coming from a segment of Twins fans and that perception is based upon the Twins failing as an organization. I have no proof of that either.
- 33 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
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Is Josh Bell Cooked, or Ready to Break Out?
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I wouldn't have signed him. He was signed. In that regard... I'll say that Josh has always been extremely streaky. His hot streaks can be impressive and his cold streaks are bone chilling. If the club turns over to youth in the off-season. Trade him or cut him... let another team enjoy the hot streak because he won't be back next year. If the club is still going for it at the end of July. Bell will be a part of that. Hopefully he will get one of those hot streaks going and help us into the playoffs. The month of June is going to determine if we are in contention in July. June ain't done yet. I know which way I'm betting but I've lost bets before. -
I'm all for his call up. I'm excited for his MLB journey to begin. It's hard to wait. Highly ranked prospects are supposed to develop into players who will have a career long enough to reach free agency. If they call him up. There better not be a work stoppage of significant length. They will burn through valuable service time. If he is not good enough... the service time waste doesn't matter. If he's good enough... the service time matters. His lofty ranking and AAA performance suggests that preserving his service time matters. He doesn't have to be rostered until December 2027. This will probably draw criticism from the TD crowd but... If the Twins are going to go young and I'm all for the Twins going young. With a work stoppage shadow (I don't believe there will be a work stoppage)... I'd rather they go with players already on the 40 man roster or players like Sabato or Fedko who are already a little age advanced. I do want to freely admit that I'm not entirely sure how it works. For example... If he ends the season on the 26 man roster. Will they,,, can they... just send him down to the safety of AAA during the off-season and burn an option instead in the face of a work stoppage? I understand that service time during a work stoppage would be part of the negotiation to getting back to work. If the owners want the players union to agree to cap/floor. I doubt the players are also going to give up the accrued service time during the stoppage. Whatever the answer to those questions. I'd be opposed to giving up service time for Culpepper or Jenkins during a work stoppage. They would have to be off the 26 man during the off-season before a strike could occur. That and I'd hate to see Fedko or Sabato just age out without opportunity and we already have players on the 40 man roster. Maybe someone could provide me solid information on 26 and 40 man management in the shadow of a work stoppage.
- 33 replies
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This was the first game that Shelton has stuffed only one side of the batters box 1-9. We have a total of 7 right handed hitters on the roster and they were all in the lineup against Framber Valdez. Stuffing the right handed batters box against left handed starters wasn't possible until May 14. The opening day roster contained 5 RH - 5 LH and 3 Switch Hitters. When Wallner was sent down... It became possible as the composition changed to 6 RH - 4 LH and 3 Switch but Clemens continued to hit against left handed pitchers. Wallner was the left handed hitter against left handed pitchers prior to his being sent down. When Outman (who rarely factored into Shelton rotations) was released. The composition changed to 7 RH and 3 LH hitters and this possibility was always there. Shelton continued to utilize Clemens against left handed pitchers regardless... which is a little odd because Clemens was not utilized when Wallner was here. Anyway... We've had the capability to go all right handed and last night was the first time that we did. The above two paragraphs are not criticisms. They are simply facts with no judgement attached to them. This was our 2nd start against Framber Valdez. We scored 8 runs in the game he started against us on April 8th. That adds up to 14 runs in the two games started by Framber against the Twins. The only other pitcher that we have faced twice this year would be left handed Noah Cameron of the Royals. The Twins have also scored 14 runs in the two games started by Noah. Last Game Left Handed Starter June 10 - Framber Valdez - Won - Run Scored 6 Lineup Composition: 7 RH - 2 Switch - 0 RH Season Record vs LH Starters: 9-13 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.77 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Right Handed Starters Season Record vs RH Starters 22-25 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.51
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Last Game Right Handed Starter June 10 - Troy Melton - Loss - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 Left Season Record vs RH Starters: 22-25 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.51 ---------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 8-13 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.71
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The Twins Need to Cash in on Kody Clemens Right Now
Riverbrian replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Castro was a rental at the time of the trade. Clemens hasn't hit arb yet. I'd hope for more. 😎 -
The Twins Need to Cash in on Kody Clemens Right Now
Riverbrian replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
He'd have the same value as he had when the Twins acquired him. Which is the same value as Taylor Rashi or Justin Lawrence. He'd be "cash considerations" at best after a DFA or he just passes through waivers. I get the conversation... Cash in on Clemens right now. I'm not going to pretend to know his current or future value but I am amazed by some of the comments directed at him. If a team is willing to part with a 100MPH young reliever for his services... we could use a young 100mph reliever with some years of service. If the trade is for a 2 month rental of Jo Jo Romero. I'd pass. Kody will have 2027 value if he simply stops us from signing another one year deal. He actually keeps 1B open for more legitimate attempts to fix it by being available to play the position and other positions. -
The Twins Need to Cash in on Kody Clemens Right Now
Riverbrian replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There are 13 roster spots. Before the team starts tossing average away (I'll say Above Average in 2026 in the case of Clemens). I'd prefer that they take a longer look at the below average to poor performers. You don't stop looking for better than Clemens. Clemens isn't in the way of anybody. You don't have to play him every single day. You can still look for better, try to find better. He's a solid member of a 26 man roster. If a team wants to give up a 100 MPH reliever for Clemens. OK... Fine. I'll make that trade. We could use some 100 MPH guys in the pen. Especially young arms with a future. But... for those who are tearing his existence on our roster apart. What can he do to make you stop? 27 Home Runs in 586 AB's thus far with the Twins isn't enough? That's pretty famous company that he is keeping pace with. Decent defense, multi-positional ability isn't enough. Stealing 11 out of 14 stolen base attempts isn't enough so he can run a little. Finding minimum making guys like Clemens should be the goal of every organization. We should celebrate his story. Inches from out of baseball. Good for Kody... Good for us. -
The Twins Need to Cash in on Kody Clemens Right Now
Riverbrian replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'll let others debate who Clemens was prior in spoardic opportunity. I'll let others debate who he will be in the future. I don't have an opinion on either. Right now in 2026. In all of MLB Baseball. The average OBP is .318. His is .317. The Average slugging percentage is .394. His is .468 The Average Home Run Per AB is 29.4. Cody is currently sitting 23.25 after hitting one home run every 18 AB's in 2025. The average K% is 22.2. He is 22.7 He has the 5th most AB's on the team. 3 of the players above him... Josh Bell #1, Brooks Lee #2 and Luke Keaschall #4 are all below .700 OPS. Those who did the math from OBP and Slugging know that league average is .712 and they also know that Kody is .785 The average salary for a baseball player is 5.34 Million. Kody makes the minimum. His salary will go up next year in his first year of Arb but he will be most likely well below the major league average. He has 3 more years to go before reaching free agency. He appears to be quite decent in the field wherever you play him and you can play him in a lot of places and this means that you can actually trade Joe Ryan for Bryce Eldridge and just move Kody over to some place else rather seamlessly. The Twins have a budget and have always had budget and will always have a budget. So... I'm pretty happy with a guy who plays above average while making the minimum. We need about 18 players who are capable and making the minimum so we have enough money to sign Yandy Diaz if we wanted to. The guy finally got an extended run last year and he has taken advantage of it. Good for him. He can play on my team as long as he keeps it up. I'll let y'all tear him apart. -
I was sleeping in law school but I learned quite a bit from one week of jury duty. My experience couldn't have been more disheartening, it couldn't have been more disillusioning in regards to the system. I was a juror on a medical malpractice lawsuit. The Plaintiff hires and flies in a medical expert and that medical expert will be very convincing stating that the doctor had made clear mistakes. The defendant hires and flies in a medical expert and that expert will be very convincing stating that the doctor did absolutely nothing wrong. Both attorney's will discredit the testimony of these paid experts by asking them if they were paid for their testimony and they both say that they are. I remember the defense asking the opposing expert where he was going to be tomorrow. And he said that he would be testifying as an expert in another case... in another state tomorrow. At that point... you see it. A lucrative cottage industry of medical experts paid to represent the side of who is paying them. Inexperienced jurors with no medical background who have to decide which expert was telling the truth between EXPERT opinion as polar opposite as MSNBC and Fox. Manipulation is the American system.
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A roster composition change over the weekend with the call up of Lewis and the DFA of Outman. Add one more right handed hitter to the 26 man and subtract a lefty. That changes the roster composition to 7 right Handed Hitters, 3 Switch hitters and 3 left handed hitters. Larnach, Clemens and are the remaining pure lefties. With the injury to Buxton... Clemens was still in the lineup against Cameron. Last Game Left Handed Starter June 7 - Noe Cameron - Loss - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH - 2 Switch - 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 8-13 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.71 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday Right Handed Starter June 6 - Luinder Avila - Loss - Runs Scored 2 Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 3 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 22-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starter: 4.52
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Outman doesnt matter to me. He wasn’t playing anyway. He was wasting a 26 man spot on a roster with multiple below average performers that are providing low bats to clear. If the manager thinks he can’t clear the low bats being set by those above him. He is a waste of that 26 man spot. Just a couple of things that strike me as odd about the timing. 1. After rostering him all season and not utilizing him with Buxton healthy. They finally make the move immediately after Buxton gets hurt. The timing of this inevitable move couldn’t be stranger. 2. So you have a decent defensive player (Outman) who couldn’t hit and you replace him with a defensive player who isn’t a hitter either (Kriedler). The timing is strange… the DFA in itself is not strange at all.
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Michael Wacha has reverse splits so Derek Shelton every right handed hitter up to the plate against the Right handed pitcher. We have 6 of them and all 6 of them were in the starting lineup. Interestingly enough... Kody Clemens was the only left handed hitter in the starting lineup but he was joined by Tristan Gray early in the game after Byron got hurt. The two left handed hitters combined for 4 of the teams 10 hits. It should also be noted that the switch hitters hit from the left handed batters box despite Wacha's splits and they produced two of the teams three extra base hits in the game. The left side of the batters box did the damage besides the Wacha splits and Sheltons attempt to minimize them. That last sentence was not an attempt to criticize Shelton. It's just what happened. I will be away from my spreadsheets this weekend. I will get caught up on Monday.
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Last Game Right Handed Starter June 5 - Michael Wacha - Won - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH - 2 Switch - 1 LH Season Record vs RH Starter: 22-23 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.58 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Staters Season Record vs LH Starter: 8-12 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starter: 4.70

