JD-TWINS

Zero runs zero wins………… 3 runs or less waaay too often to live up to Tom P.’s competitive Ball Club.

Based on my eye test and the comments from the article, the opposing pitchers aren’t filling the strike zone - Martin is swinging and missing (not getting hits) on pitches down and away as well as down & in & more on pitches up……. His discipline is waning …….his discipline at the top of the zone (out of the zone up) - is not as good. IMO, “expectations” should have never been his peak of .333 BA & .450 OBP ……… he’s a .265+ hitter with little power but, hopefully, a .350 OBP guy. Good defense (at least, better all the time).

I may be wrong but I thought he was DFA’d by Dodgers and then we traded for him ………. similar to what SWR is going through as Twins seek a trade after him being DFA’d. At any rate - a very much maligned reliever is/has been effective for over a month.

Banda & Gomez are both DFA guys from other organizations - they both looked pretty sharp on Tuesday night! Morris getting Vargas with the 100 mph fastball with a couple guys on base was a bit deal! 7-8-9 hitters went 6-12 with 5 RBI…… that’s huge! Luke Keaschall has been hitting the ball with some authority lately - even when making outs - very encouraging that he’s now near .250 BA & .320 OBP…….Josh Bell has hits in 6 straight & is contributing again - nice. Larnach & Martin were 1-5 between them but each had a Walk and each scored a run.

Who is the Yankees 5th starter - the 5th starter for the Braves - the 5th starter for the Phillies ? Do any of these teams or the other current 9 playoff teams trade that guy for a 2 month rental? …… and you want more than the 5th starter. Also, the Twins won’t trade for anyone that currently makes a decent salary. Limiting. There’s a difference between what one wants - what one hopes for - & what one can get. How many contending Teams are going to add a “starting catcher” or need to add one? Not getting Jeffers via deadline trade to sit as a depth piece. 20 Teams may be interested at the end of the year but I don’t see a strong market for two months……… coming off a BROKEN BONE.

Never been an All-Star, trending positively! Broken hand/wrist ……can’t play for another 5 weeks! Jeffers has TWO MONTHS of Team control after the deadline. Getting a probable 5th starter, when the Team doesn’t currently have one, would be a steal. What’s the expectation at end of July for a 2 month rental? I’d love to keep him - really seems to be coming into his own at the plate! He’s a below average catcher based on metrics. He WAS having a great year at the plate but he currently has a broken bone and NOBODY knows how he’ll recover, relative to hitting, or how long it might take? Also, as I mentioned in an earlier post - there’s 15 other teams calling the Pirates.

Loved watching Griffin Jax pitch for the Twins - he had some bad luck occasionally but electric stuff and usually very competent!! In ‘25, over 50 relief appearances (46 innings) for the Twins, he had a WAR of .2 and an ERA of 4.50 with a 1-5 record. In ‘26, over 18 appearances (34 innings) for the Rays, he has a WAR of -.5 and an ERA of 4.76 with a 1-4 record. The trade for Bradley (being part of “the big ‘25 deadline sell-off”) looks like a pretty good move.

Nice piece of hitting by Gray - hitting, what had been a pretty effective curveball was big! Adams isn’t any better than Garcia - younger, so he may come around but he can’t be a piece of the PEN in the Show at this point. What’s up with SWR? Has anyone claimed him? Do they bring him back via AAA? Curious on the timing of these types of transactions? LMK. Thanks!

Ober, IMO, is a non-starter for a frugal organization like the Pirates or nearly any organization. Ober is hurt and has inferior stuff, he’s older and costs 7 times as much as Mlodzinski (assuming he makes the minimum). Jeffers seems like a slam dunk though……big shot in the arm for a competitive and hungry Pirates Club. I assume all agree here that getting something positive for Jeffers makes sense. IF he pitched well for Twins…….. trading Ryan becomes much more probable and feasible as others heal between now and end of July. There’s probably 16 other MLB teams calling or getting ready to call the Pirates to inquire.

When they avoided Arbitration this year they agreed to $6.1M for ‘26 & for ‘27, his last year of possible arbitration, before becoming a UFA in ‘28. He has a $100k buyout if Twins don’t pick up his option……… scheduled to make $13M for ‘27. Google Joe Ryan contract.

Trading Ober is a move but not very much of a value add, doesn’t need to be …… he’s not expensive though and frankly, they need somebody to start games the balance of ‘26. Now that his elbow or whatever hurts, it could be bad for trade or continued innings eating in Twin’s uni. Jenkins is 21 & hurt & not exactly pushing his way on to the MLB squad. …….. Culpepper up within 2-4 weeks would be a breath of fresh air, in regard to moving forward…… Jenkins in August if he’s hitting, for sure. KEEPER question, is Martin more of a core guy than Larnach? It seems to becoming true that Austin should platoon with Larnach and he can play in RF maybe 50% of the time v. RH pitching. He’s wearing out and spiraling at the plate. …… at any rate, against much angst here at TD, I’d keep both of them. I need young guys to actually deserve a shot in the Show not just get a promotion because we’re curious and “they are supposed to be good.” The most difficult thing is the “acquiring a middle of the order bat” ……. to me, a big ask! How?? …… spend? trade? ……. seems this is a very competitive type of move with other clubs …… I have zero confidence this happens….. not saying your confidence level is high! Jeffers is on their roster & could catch 60% of the time and DH 25% of the time - he’s hitting .296 with decent OPS+ …… middle of the order guy & there’s extremely low confidence Team makes a move toward keeping Ryan…. agree, this is a move to try & be “competitive.” Everyone has shrewd agents - not just Jeffers, so negotiating this is possible if Team is serious about next 3 years. Bell - Wallner, other non-core guys, sure …….. trade for whatever. Arcia may play well enough to facilitate some trade value at deadline? I sure would like to see someone else getting a shot at 1B other than Clemens & Bell from August 1 forward! Extending Pablo is a real risk if done before he starts to throw again …….. solid performer & GREAT Team guy!!!

No - at least as I understand it, he signed through ‘27 for $13M next year. Twins can decline the option. They’d either exercise the option or trade him prior……. I guess he could decline to play and sit but the Twins have control through ‘27. If they didn’t have control in ‘27 there would be no question he would be traded by the deadline……….that’s not been the discussion here ……… “should Team trade this summer or in the offseason….?” is the debate on TD…… with some hoping for an extension.

Ryan is under contract through next season. I don’t think anyone will offer Jeffers anything near $22M/year (approximate QO) but he will get 3 year offers. The qualifying offer will probably get rejected. If they ARE around .500 or 3-4 under by late July they should try to make a run with Jeffers. If they are 7 games or more under Jeffers should be a trade piece for sure. Trading Jeffers and making him an offer in Free Agency is certainly within reason - I would think he’ll want to turn the page & head somewhere else. An extension for Jeffers while he’s hurt would stir up some fan support!!

They were stressed to make a move, no innings available from the group in PEN with 9 more straight days of baseball to be played - DFA for SWR is obviously not something that makes clear sense…………gotta think there was something off the field that started them in this direction…….,: maybe he snapped? said something negative he couldn’t take back? he’s certainly suitable for relief right now - maybe he didn’t like that path? You pick, Travis Adams/John Klein or SWR for an inning at a time or two innings? Makes no sense unless there’s some unrest from one side or both.

IMO, the PROBLEM was the Sun! 2nd inning - should have been 3 outs on a simple fly ball right at our left fielder …….. unfortunately, as happens 2-3 times per season, the ball got lost in the sun and that gave the Pirates another out to work with & Ober couldn’t make the big pitch to stop the onslaught in the 2nd. Then, snake bit Twins get a Catcher’s interference call against Caratini and it pushes a runner to 2B …… he then scores on a single to LF ……… pretty solid play by Larnach but tag was 1/2 second too late. MARTIN has to have the day off Sunday and they Seriously need to consider DFA for Outman and Gonzales back up to play some corner OF, as needed. Martin is in a spiral and batting 4-5 times per game, mostly against RH pitching is fruitless…….Kreidler/Outman in CF with Clemens in right & Larkin in LF with a right handed starter ……. gotta do it before Martin is mentally broken v. RH pitching. Funderburk can’t consistently throw strikes. more specifically he walks too many guys! His stuff isn’t good enough to routinely get him out of trouble - not sure he’s got the Major League make-up. Looks frustrated or anxious way too often on the mound. Looks great in spots but if Team needs 4 outs the results need to be better from him! 5 runs from the Sun ball & 1 from the interference - tough to win when those things happen.

When you’re a knucklehead, that’s injury prone, and you slide head first into 1B - you get hurt - not really surprising at all from Rodriguez! …….. out through August. Jenkins isn’t/wasn’t lighting it up at AAA - he was OK though. He’s 21 ……… don’t think we’ll see him until September., The PEN threw 4 scoreless after Bradley gave up 4. The PEN can’t get any better - but then after the eighth you’re out of arms. Rogers threw Sunday/Tuesday/Thursday & called on in the 9th on Friday. That’s asking a lot. …….. these are things that happen when you’re in the middle of 17 straight days of baseball. Rojas injury was a killer!!

Same page - if guys can hit, the Manager can figure out how to use them. Lewis at 3B couple times per week and DH 3 times per - off the bench if needed in other game. Lee can play 3B 4 days per week & DH once - maybe 2B or SS once a week. With Lewis back, Kreidler’s emphasis can be in OF as well as at SS. Speaking of hitting, Arcia should play 2B 3-4 days per week with Keaschall getting a break, until it looks like Arcia isn’t hitting. Keaschall as pinch runner - pinch hitter 2-3 games/week & 2B 2-3 times/week. I think 40 more AB’s is plenty if Royce keeps going at a fairly high level at AAA……. 2 more weeks. Can’t rush though - he needs to feel comfortable & confident when he returns.

No argument in aiming higher - younger guys aren’t available yet. My point is Keaschall is a bigger problem - Catcher is a major problem, less Jeffers - Having to play Bell 90% of the time is a problem - very, very fortunate that Clemens has found some magic to become an average hitter - the fact that Outman is rostered ……..all these things said, Larnach shouldn’t be near the Top of anyone’s list trying to fix the Team for the next 4 months. He had 118 LH pitcher AB’s in ‘25 - numbers suffered. In ‘24 his platoon was in place and he hit .259 with a .771 OPS & 116 OPS+ …… essentially mirroring this season to date …..,only his OBP is up 45 points in ‘26 and strikeout are down.

His salary is almost free, unless one is a beaten down Twin’s fan and thinks everyone should play for the minimum. He’s definitely a platoon! RH pitching throws 70-75% of the time. His defensive stats (in ‘26) are solid per analytics guys on this site a week ago. His .9 WAR at this point with some starts at DH show his defense can’t be weak or the WAR would reflect that. Buxton is having a great year and so is Jeffers ………. they are at 2.0 & 1.7 WAR respectively. Martin, his former platoon partner, has earned more playing time and has a 1.1 WAR. Larnach is 4th on the club with a .9 WAR. If the TWINS could sign 3-4 more guys for $4.5M and know they would be on pace for 2.7 WAR for the year, they’d do it in a heartbeat …….. & they would be in first place in the Division. They assumed Keaschall - Lewis & Wallner would have those numbers and it isn’t happening!

117 OPS+ - .770 OPS - .9 WAR over 1/3 of season - BA 25 points higher than career average - 22 walks/29 K’s. He sucks!

How about just not starting SWR, now 0-8 on the season. He gave Team a chance in maybe 2 of his starts. He had 2 decent relief appearances but they can’t piece together a fifth starter (consistently) so he goes out today after throwing relief on Monday. 7.69 ERA ……..if Team wins 2 of his starts they are a game over .500 right now. E-Rod, thumb surgery, out through at least August. Jenkins is hurt - not performing at a high level (been OK & spotty good) - he’s 21. No need to bring him up just because fans want him to be a star NOW.

Larnach walked with 2 outs in a PH role in Boston Series to put team ahead. 2 days ago he doubled in the first and then scored the first run of the game. His OBP is .381 going into today - hitting .267 with a .9 WAR through 1/3 of the season. He’s easily the 3rd best performer at the plate this year - easily! Let’s trade him and hope Emma can play, oh he’s hurt again & out for 3 months…….. because he’s an apparent rock head who slides into 1B head first. Jenkins is 21 - not ready - and probably hurt. But by all means, trade Larnach because he’s arrogant after Wallner got demoted - great idea!

Same weak offense since mid-August of ‘24! No appreciable changes - players then are still inconsistent (or just poor) now.

Monday 1 run in 9 innings Tuesday 2 runs in 10 innings Wednesday 2 runs in 9 innings Thursday 2 runs in 9 innings The defense and Bullpen can’t make up for no run production!

E-Rod is done for season - out til Sept. 1. Jenkins hasn’t shown enough to be up very soon. Not really sure why many are anxious to trade Larnach? Best year defensively and solid offensively with .385 OBP to date through 55 games. Larnach was highly touted, just like E-Rod ……. I’d like to see Rodriguez actually stay healthy and hit for couple months at MLB prior to sending guys that are performing down the road. Emma has been hurt and has missed considerable time every year for at least 4 seasons. Builds zero confidence in him! Jenkins hasn’t been very durable either - he’s 21, so I don’t see Team pushing him up this year unless he’s on fire at AAA. IMO, Martin becomes a Utility OF when anyone else (other than Buxton) posts a .350 OBP …….guys don’t get starting spots due to fan curiosity or assumptions they will perform. Last, James Outman is not a tradable player unless lumped in with 1-2 other players that are sought after.