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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Prior to Solano being added, my assumption was Larnach 50 starts at DH & Buxton 50 starts at DH. Now, due to options & strategy, Larnach will have to hit .400 in Spring Training with 5HR to make the Big Club out of the gate, unless there is an injury. Assuming the original roster stays healthy, I see Taylor only in CF if there’s a LH pitcher (42 games). Otherwise, Buxton 80 games & Gordon 40 games. I see Gallo - Gordon - Kepler v. RH pitching, being outfield combo for a third of the season. DH turns: Buxton - 50 Correa - 10 Gallo - 20 Kirilof - 15 Solano - 15 Jeffers - 5 Polanco - 20 Vazquez - 5 Miranda - 10 Gordon - 10..…one thing I think we can agree on is Gordon needs to be in our line-up with a slash v. RH pitching of 289/.329/.465 (.793) for 2nd half of 2022. Kepler & Gallo can’t default into the line-up ahead of that. Partial “rest days” at DH or “keeping a guy sharp” strategy with so many differing guys. If Larnach is healthy, and is playing well, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of this DH roll v. RH pitching! Someone else will get hurt or will falter on a relative basis & he’ll be there. LH pitching line-up since Solano added to roster: Taylor LF - Buxton CF - Correa SS - Miranda DH - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - Gallo RF - Solano 1B……….order can be played with after 1st 3 guys but this is a formidable line-up against 25% of the league as LH pitchers.
  2. JD-TWINS
    He doesn’t get to pitch against the Royals & Tigers as much but he’ll/we’ll see the worst teams in every other division (specifically NL) & they won’t have seen him……seems like an advantage!! A refined slider & new splitter with minor upside gives him an opportunity to really shine! I get that our Staff is pretty balanced if everyone is “on” & Spring Training will sort some things. Professional athletes have egos - Ryan seems to be pretty stable mentally. That said, I can’t imagine having your number one starter have a successful Rookie Year and not have him be at least the #3 the following year. I think they want to see what López can handle out of the gate. My rotation guess: Lopez - Gray - Ryan - Mahle - Maeda/Ober ……..whoever we have at 4 & 5, we are going to appear like we have an advantage. Possibly, by the end of April, we may appear to have the better match-up from #2 - #5 on paper v. anyone. Really like that Ryan took the ball all year outside of his Covid bout. His durability/availability are big reasons why he can end up at the top of or near top of this Staff.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Nick Gordon played 98 games in OF in ‘22. 33 games in CF. First year ever playing outfield. He had 405 AB’s and had 9 HR & 28 doubles & he hit .272. He has been sick his whole pro career until ‘22 when he gained 25 lb. I think that after getting stronger and adding another 5-10 lb he may be one of our top 3-4 players offensively. Buxton hit .228 & started about 70 games in the OF in ‘22. Taylor will start & be effective v. LH pitching & will be a reserve in the other 125-130 games. Gallo & Kepler are a roll of the dice and won’t get past June 15 if they aren’t performing! I see Larnach as the DH and 50 game starter in LF. Outfield is reasonable offensively.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Polanco started the All-star game in ‘21…..hit 33 HR’s ……got MVP votes. These things happen to 2-3 guys across the leagues in the same year. Having prospects pounding AA & Fall League pitching is very encouraging but it doesn’t mean we have plug & play & succeed guys in our Farm System just because that’s what we’d like to think. Lee - Lewis - Martin were all recognized early as big talents - I do think a couple of them will shine at some point! Not every guy that gets ranked as a high prospect should be on the club by the Trade Deadline or spring of ‘24 though.
  5. JD-TWINS
    If we’re in 1st or 2nd place in July & Polanco is contributing, he’s not going anywhere in ‘23.
  6. JD-TWINS
    We have Lee at 2B …..isn’t that the assumption with Lewis & Correa on the left side? Martin to the OF.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Sounds great if these guys aren’t helping us win any games………..can’t imagine any organization trading a high upside Catcher for $20 million with the first 2 O’s & Celestino…..not sure who Solano is? Kepler with Gallo & Polanco is $30 million in salary……..if they are having respectable seasons, maybe another Team would entertain…….if they are having respectable years, we won’t want to move them.
  8. JD-TWINS
    It says he won’t play LF……didn’t see where he will play on defense? With Kepler & Gallo gone in ‘24, is it RF? Curious.
  9. JD-TWINS
    If I understand the draft information correctly we have a #1 overall pick - a #5 overall pick - a #8 overall pick in Lewis - Lee - Martin. I’m not into the draft historically so haven’t really put this together as I just thought they were where the Twins happened to pick not the Over All draft positions. 2 of these 3 have to work out with that sort of pedigree! Maybe obvious to all others - just catching up. After this year when Lewis gets a 2-3 month stretch in the league, we should have a clearly re-vamped infield for ‘24………with Martin potentially spending time in OF in future. To me, Martin is the only ?? and apparently he had a great fall ball season. Exciting to see how they do over the next few weeks - hopeful, as everyone else, Lewis comes back w/o issues.
  10. JD-TWINS
    It’s called addition by subtraction.
  11. JD-TWINS
    1st - Can’t move Lewis or Lee! Dreaming a bit here: If we get to the break and Kirilof is healthy, and we’re in the mix, Miranda may be worth moving for an Ace? Along with Ober - prospect Martin. Maybe Walner - Ober - Martin……Ober under control & takes rotation spot from the jump…..Walner & Martin under control for years. Julien could be a guy in the mix? Maybe Salas, depending upon what Milwaukee is looking for in everyday guys. Maybe Polanco? (Polanco - Ober - Walner for Burns) We’ll have $$$$ to sign Burns with Gallo/Kepler/Gray/Mahle/Polanco ($11M - $9M - $13M - $10M - $12M) gone in ‘24!! Burns gets $28M & López gets $19M. Burns for 3 years …….Lopez extended 2 additional years. Could be exciting! 2024 Potential Staff: Burns/Ryan/Lopez/Varland/Paddack Lopez - Duran - Jax - Balazovic - Moran - SWR - Megill - Alcala Maeda - if average in 2023, is worth extending at $8 - $11M a year with an ERA under 4.00. If Thielbar holds up, keep bringing him back!! Have some other arms left for relief depth & starter depth…….. Buxton - Larnach - Gordon - Rodríguez - Taylor Correa - Miranda - Lewis - Lee - Kirilof - Farmer Vazquez - Jeffers Mix of experienced depth & youth - really good staff……….affordable!!!! 2nd round of playoffs?!?!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    I think both sides should wait a year. His numbers would go up in a year However, $80 million for 9 years probably sounds pretty good to a guy who has been out for most of 2 years with injuries! I like the idea - maybe see him play for 2 or 3 months.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Celestino isn’t a MLB outfielder on a winning club, at this point. Larnach has options left. If Kirilof & Polanco are healthy, I like Larnach better than Solano on the 26 man. Gordon started 65 games in LF & 33 games in CF last year. 28 doubles in 405 AB’s. .272 BA. 2023 has him at 80 games in LF & 50 games in CF. Taylor can’t hit RH pitching. We face that 75-80% of the time. He starts against LH pitching & is a true back-up from there. Buxton can only be expected to start 80 games in CF. 50 starts at DH. Keppler in RF 115 games. Gallo in LF 40 games in RF 45 games at 1B 20 games at DH 20 games.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Nick Gordon is an outfielder - played 98 games there last year. 33 of those were in CF. He plays only against RH pitching, approximately 125-130 games and starts 45-50 games in CF. Remaining starts will be LF. Taylor will play in CF against LH pitching. He will pinch run - play if there’s an injury - pinch hit v. LH pitching - late inning defense as needed. Solano will play 1B or 2B against LH pitching. His time on the field has no bearing on Nick Gordon. Was hoping - still am - that Larnach could DH 80 games this year & playing LF 30-50 games. Seems there may be another move(s) coming. This depth addition is blah with the guys we have stacked in minors…….must not want Miranda at 1B anymore or at least not in ‘23.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Our STAFF is seriously stronger than it was going into last year!!! Not even close…..Bundy, Archer, J. Smith, Duffy, Paddack (4 starts) etc. Do we have a perfect staff - NO. Will everyone remain healthy - NO We have depth and guys to take advantage of right/left splits. We have guys in Farmer & Taylor as back-ups v. Celestino & an IF I can’t remember. Obviously, we need the players on paper to be able to play……same with 29 other teams. Guardians BEST prospect, probable 4th/5th starter Espino(?) is out for a minimum of 2 months starting this morning.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He needs to stay healthy & maybe he can pick up an extra $3 million for MVP votes! If he plays 80 games in OF & 50 games at DH I’ll be ecstatic. That would be his 2nd highest total in career & would get him 500 AB’s - at same HR % as last year it gives him a real shot at a 40 HR season. He doesn’t need to be a superstar - just needs to be in the line-up - this team is built around good to very good. This represents our staff & our everyday line-up! His career BA is .248, so if he plays 130 games or approaches that number, I’ll take a .260 average (12 point uptick w/o the shift) and 28-30 HR. We just need him available in the playoffs! Career averages for most: .260 from Buxton - .255 from Kepler - .270 from Polanco - .265 from Miranda - .275 from Correa - .280 from Kirilof - .270 from Vázquez - .270 from Gordon - .260 from Larnach - .210 from Gallo…….no stars, lots of good!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Maeda was primarily a starter for the Dodgers. At the end of two different seasons he was the low man and got slotted into the Pen. That said, I agree Ober should be the 5th starter. My logic is two pronged. First, Ober is not durable and if he’s pitching well coming out of Spring Training, don’t disrupt that and take advantage of as many innings as we can get out of him while healthy. No reason to have him burning up innings in St. Paul. Second, Maeda is coming off elbow surgery at 35. Having him strengthen our Pen out of Spring Training seems logical. If Ober fades in June/July & Maeda has only thrown 45 innings through June, he’s ready to stretch out over a month and we’re set.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I hated trading Arraez since it seemed we could have signed a FA starter and kept Luis. After looking at how we have changed overall from the beginning of last year …..the exchanges we’ve made vs. last year’s club are Kirilof for Arraez, Miranda for Urshella, Gallo for Cave/Celestino/Garlick & Vasquez for Sanchez. Kirilof - Polanco - Larnach - Buxton all hoping for better health than in ‘22. PITCHING:López for Bundy, Mahle for Paddack, & Maeda for Archer PEN, with Pagan in the 7 or 8 spot vs. 1 or 2 last year, this is a reality exchange. Others are López for Joe Smith, an experienced Moran for Duffy…..Megill, Jax, & Duran with experience all seem to be an upgrade. AAA starters…..there are 3-4 guys that have pitched in the SHOW and will be ready if there are issues……much better than last year!! WINDER - OBER - VARLAND - SWR Having a starting SS as our utility guy in Farmer & a Gold Glove back-up in the OF in Taylor is way better than guys we used in ‘22. Gordon can play OF & he can hit, unknown going into ‘22. JUST HAS TO BE A BETTER OUTLOOK THAN LAST YEAR…..don’t understand the reluctance in saying that? Farm has more guys that have or are maturing to come up if needed.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Line-up v. LH pitching…..roughly 30 games: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Farmer 3B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Larnach LF - Kepler RF Bench: Vázquez - Kirilof - Gordon - Gallo……Vázquez is only other RH hitting option & needs to sit with Jeffers in Line-up. No issue with Buxton in the DH spot! V. RH pitching, I think Buxton DH’s 20 games against historically favorable guys. 80 starts in CF. Frequent line-up v. RH pitching: Gordon CF - Kirilof 1B - Correa SS - Larnach DH - Gallo LF - Polanco 2B - Vázquez C - Kepler RF - Miranda 3B
  20. JD-TWINS
    If Buxton plays 95 games in CF v. 80 games in CF & 50 at DH……how is there no value in him being in our line-up 35 more starts? Taylor - Farmer - Jeffers will start v. every LH starter we face. Gordon’s offense v. RH pitching is on par or better than Buxton’s, other than in HR’s. He started 33 games in CF in ‘22. With Taylor being weak v. RH pitching & Buxton needing to be careful with health, seems Gordon is the right fit in CF. Gordon between Gallo & Kepler is just fine defensively. .272 BA in 405 AB’s & 28 doubles & 9 HR in his first real opportunity in SHOW. Started 98 games in OF & it was his first year ever playing OF. Don’t see an issue.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Agreed on the López v. Pagan….both???? Can’t believe I’m saying Pagan seems to have more probability for success based on history. Thielbar is a concern just because one gets to the end eventually…….hope he’s somewhere near ‘22! Moran seems like a guy developing normally and gaining command & experience along the way. Looking for him to become a regular use guy up around 60-70 innings. Megill - if he develops a 3rd pitch for show he’s got the stuff with his curve & fastball to be a core guy every 2-3 days. I think Jax is solid and any drift over the year is normal up & down on the mound. Duran - hope for health - he should be good.
  22. JD-TWINS
    92 games is most in a season other than 140 games 5 or 6 years ago. Shooting for 145 games is nuts to me. I hope Byron can start 80 games in CF v. RH pitching……….30 games at DH v. LH pitching………20 games at DH v.RH pitching. Taylor starts in CF against LH pitching…..30 games…Gordon starts 50 games in CF against RH pitching.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Doc - I get the ambivalence with the Gallo signing & probably not worth too much energy here - you’re being nice with “the league’s figured him out….” comment. With the .199 career BA I don’t know if he’s ever figured out the league? …………… Alcala is talented but too on the edge for me without a month or three in St Paul……would prefer he starts across the river with a FA signing of Hand! Hoping to see LF split 80 games Gordon - 50 games Larnach - 30 games Gallo……….80 games for Larnach at DH. Kirilof should get 110 games at 1B …..Slow with Kirilof but still e….Gallo there 20 games……..Miranda 30 games. ………………. Lopez has been in the SHOW essentially, since 2018. I don’t think he’s very good between the ears……sure seems to have a good pitch mix & velocity to succeed. First year as a reliever in 2022. ERA’s - 5.03, 6.33, 6.69, 6.07, & 2.54 in ‘22 (4.37 in MN) Not sure he should be our choice to make the club before Pagan……that’s a BIG SHIFT for me!! Pagan numbers since 2017 - ERA’s 3.22, 4.35, 2.31, 4.50, 4.83, & 4.43. Equally as good of stuff as compared to López. I don’t need to see either of these guys progress from our 6th-8th guy in the Pen …….not needed to be high leverage guys. Just keep us in the game ………keep the ERA’s under 3.75 and walks in a normal range of 2 - 3 walks/inning. HR down to 1 per 9 innings. If one of them can be in Jax company we’ll be in great shape.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Exactly…….IMO, both he & López need to be working with a sports psychologist & whoever cured the Lion in the Wizard of Oz! They fold up and just throw straight fastballs down the middle way too often under pressure. BOTH have STUFF to be really good relievers but the intestinal fortitude doesn’t seem to be there. Physically, maybe it’s they don’t have enough command in the zone? Can’t just pay them & live with that!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Not sure what is driving the forecast??…..only really have a good understanding of ERA. Pretty sure if our Staff has a cumulative ERA of 3.30 we are going to be awfully difficult to beat!!! WARP of 14 plus seems positive as well.
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