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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Makes sense if the elbow is fixed - work on mixing the 3rd pitch during back half of ‘23 and be ready for a promising ‘24.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Moran has decent fastball - great change - left handed……he’s on the staff. Megill has a plus fastball - a plus curveball…….he’s on the staff. They both could be devastating with better strike/ball command ……that’s like saying if a golfer could only putt he’d be better - I get it! The other move toward dominance is for them both to develop a third pitch & improve command.,; If Moran could develop a cutter or some off-speed pitch moving left to right, even just to SHOW, he’d be way more effective. Same with Megill, a cutter or a change-up to SHOW would make his other 2 pitches un-hittable. Luzardo or some other pitcher acquisition to force Maeda to Pen would be ideal. Signing Fulmer or Chafin from FA would be cherry on top!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    Can’t say we paid “too much” for Gallo. The fact that we signed him AT ALL instead of letting Walner have his innings or hanging on to Kepler for continuity is what’s disturbing. If he has mild success, 22HR & .220 BA good defense in 125 games, it’s a bit more upside than Kepler due to the power in less innings. I think Walner could be comparable as a rookie BUT if Gallo wakes up, he may hit .235 with 35 HRs. Anyway, the fact that we took the risk & signed him period is the scary thing - if he performs at all to his potential, $11 million is a normal salary. Gordon - Buxton - Gallo - Larnach - (???? Right Handed Bat)……FA? who’s the guy, assuming it’s not Celestino? Farmer - Miranda - Kirilof - Arraez - Polanco - Correa Jeffers - Vazquez Trade: Kepler - Young Farm infielder (not Lee nor Lewis) - Celestino - maybe Kirilof for the Marlins pitcher we can pry away….. Luzardo maybe? Don’t know if Kirilof is tradable with his wrist issues…..I think he’s the easiest guy NOT TO MISS. Need to make this trade happen before the assets are gone from Miami to other suitors.
  4. JD-TWINS
    The offer to McCuthen screams “……Celestino is not the answer, near term nor long term…..” Can’t be more happy that the FO concedes that!!!!!! Glad the FO is still active!! Gordon - Buxton - Gallo for our basic outfield with Larnach - Gordon - Gallo seeing lots of action against righties (Buxton in ‘23. We really could use a guy to spell Gallo against lefty starters. I’ve noticed in some comments over last week that Farmer may play some OF…….I live in Cinti & don’t recall that? I’d be good with that as it may open us to a RH batting DH vs. outfielder. RH Soler from Miami as part of the pitching trades? RH Duvall off the FA market?
  5. JD-TWINS
    Luzardo seems to be a controllable guy through 2026……he was touted very highly due to his stuff……….always a good thing. Learned how to pitch and had real success in ‘22 over 100 innings. He seems to be plenty of upside for TWINS. Trade back controllable pieces for Luzardo: Julien - Martin - Rodriguez - Kirilof (2 of these) & Kepler - every day solid with potential upside at the plate with the shift eliminated. (doubt Gallo is tradable - would gladly add him & keep Max) & Pagan or Lopez - upside with stuff, experience. Analytics seem to like their velocity - spin - etc. Maybe Miami thinks they can harness their lack of command in the zone? To me, that’s a haul for Miami, 3 potential guys for active roster plus one really good prospect!
  6. JD-TWINS
    There’s 22 guys in MLB that hit over .290 in ‘22. 11 guys hit over .300. We have a guy that hit .316 & lead the A.L. He will turn 26 in April. His four year BA is .314. Next best average on team is CC at .291 - 21st on the list of 22. He is a contact hitter. He’s positioned in the lead-off spot most of the time so his job is to “get on base”. When Carew moved from #2 to #3 in the line-up he hit 14 HR’s twice after a handful for his first 7 years……,he had 90 plus RBI a couple times, 100 RBI in ‘77. I don’t think Arraez is Carew but he’s awfully close. Carew had bad knees and moved from 2B to 1B around his 7th-8th year in league & then proceeded to make the All-Star team 11 more times at 1B. Considering, just considering, to trade Luis Arraez is nuts!!! With our current line-up he may be most valuable leading off……..not sure though? He is a great guy to have behind someone in the line-up you want to see better pitches (protect). He could bat 2nd, behind Buxton……3rd behind Buxton……..5th behind Miranda or Polanco?? Any other position from 3rd or lower in line-up & his RBI go from 48 to 85!!! Starting Pitcher trade material from TWINS…….Kepler - López - Jeffers - Martin - Celestino - Pagan - Winder - Sands………IF necessary, Walner or Kirilof. Maybe an Infielder other than Lewis or Lee. Needs to be some 4-5 player deal without Arraez that can get us an arm.
  7. JD-TWINS
    IMO Kepler is the throw in piece we need to move and he stabilizes risk for the opposing GM. He’s an everyday starter with a great glove (if your organization needs that) and an upside as the shift is removed in ‘23. Still only 29 I believe. Pagan is a similar piece that adds some upside with his stuff & potential based on his stuff. Lopez could fit into the mix as well with same upside as Pagan. “2022 All-Star” may help López’ worth?? Celestino is another guy that doesn’t fit with our glut of OF & with a weaker bat, may need some more seasoning to attain his ceiling. Ober - Winder - Sands are guys we need to help balance a trade with do the other GM looks good! Last, Martin or Walner to top off the trade & to bring the true upside for other GM future.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Amen to Nick Gordon being an OUTFIELDER & no longer a utility infielder. 100% on him being best option, probably 60 plus games in CF this year, behind Buxton. Every day LF otherwise!! 550 at bats & he’s a 40 doubles - 15 HR guy with durability & speed. 160lbs to 185lbs in 6 months last winter/spring. ”Celestino. Please.” …….again, 100%. Can’t be in” on roster of 26!! TRADE: Celestino - Kepler - (1 of Sands - Winder - Ober) - Farm System IF as well - with our new depth at SS. (hang on to Lee & Lewis) These 4 guys for a front line starter. I think, with moderate success, we extend Mahle - Gray - Maeda in late June……2 of the 3 possibly. Also, I see Maeda out of the Pen first 2-3 months at least. Kirilof or Walner, if an absolute must, should be offered in a trade before Arraez!! He’s 26 and just scratching his potential. If he hit anywhere but lead-off his doubles & RBI would be up considerably. He’s in “get on base mode” batting lead-off. Can’t disrespect the 4 year BA of .314!! .316 in ‘22 wasn’t some fluke, or high point for trade purposes. We wish & hope 3-4 other guys in our Farm System could turn into the hitter Arraez is……cannot trade the batting champ!
  9. JD-TWINS
    My view of Market & needs: Sign 2 of 3: Chafin or Hand………Fulmer. Trade for starter ……Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - Martin…….(not Lewis or Lee) or whoever needed. Maeda moves to Pen with newly aquired starters. Sign McCutchen for RH bat and experienced bench guy with speed, even at 36.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Kepler has to be traded. Can’t carry $20 million combined salary with he & Gallo. Celestino had 324 AB’s in ‘22 with 12 doubles & 2 HR & hit .238. Gordon had 405 AB’s in ‘22 with 28 doubles & 9 HR & hit .272. Gordon getting rapidly stronger, gained 25 lb from January to July. How many HR did Larnach & Kirilof hit in ‘22??? Gordon’s going to play every day in LF or CF. With 550-600 AB’s he’ll hit 14 HR & 40 doubles! Garlick is mediocre & maybe a guy we pick up again if we can’t make another move. Last resort. I do like Garlick more than Celestino! We should pick up Andrew McCutchen to play opposite Gallo in right when lefties throw against us. McCutchen can spell Gordon vs. lefties occasionally as well. I see comments routinely that Buxton “….,needs to play 135-145 games this year for our success.” Get real! If we get 120 games with 85 in CF I’ll be surprised & ecstatic. Lots of Larnach - Gordon - Gallo OF against right handed pitching in ‘23. OF: Buxton - Gordon - Gallo - Larnach - McCutchen IF: Miranda - Kirilof - Araez - Farmer - Polanco - Correa C: Jeffers - Vázquez Starters: FA/Wacha or Aquired via trade guy - Mahle - Ryan - Gray - Ober Pen: Moran - Thielbar - Megill - Jax - Maeda - Duran - FA/Fulmer - FA/Chafin or Hand Roster room comes with trading a pitcher (Winder - Sands - prospect) with Kepler - Pagan - Celestino for front end starter. Maybe 2 trades, as we now have some IF depth with our Farm System & CC’s signing. Alcala - Varland - SWR all getting sharp in St. Paul…….Walner playing every day in St. Paul to potentially take Gallo’s spot if he’s not playing well through June. Improving pitching to start year is our key - we have plenty of depth elsewhere. We have BP depth with a FA signing or two. EXPERIENCED starter would be great to enable Maeda to be in the pen.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Chafin - Hand - Fulmer (2 of these 3) McCutchen if only spend on one reliever. Kepler - Pagan - Celestino & whoever else needed to get a Starting Pitcher. If we must move Polanco, Farmer can handle 2nd until youth is ready every day in ‘24.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Correa is just a player - one piece! We had 2nd or 3rd most blown saves in league. Joe Smith & Duffey are gone. Hopefully, Pagan will be gone. Opportunity to reduce 27 blown saves to say, 12. That’s 90 wins in ‘23 right there. We had Jake Cave & Gilberto Celestino as two of our outfielders for weeks. Both played hard - decent guys - not MLB caliber starters and barely reasonable for high end AAA. Larnach - Kirilof - Kepler - Buxton - Garlick……..ALL HURT in ‘22. Kepler missed more than a month. Polanco missed more than a month. Buxton missed two months. This was our offensive core entering 2022. Our catchers couldn’t hit to save their lives. We signed Vazquez. Farmer is now a depth piece - former starting SS!! Now that CC is in place, Lewis can work out at 3rd & 2nd. Same with Lee. If we add a Starting Pitcher via trade ……..Kepler-Pagan-Celestino-Prospect (bumps Maeda to Pen) and sign a FA reliever we’re golden. McCutchen is an affordable RH option as an outfielder that could help against LHP…….also, a good defensive reserve.
  13. JD-TWINS
    We are better on 1/10/23 with CC. than w/o him on 9th. We were way better 1/9/23 than last year! Not because he’s going to guide our young guys in clubhouse or because he’s going to carry our offense, With Farmer able to add depth at 3 IF positions - huge plus!! No Joe Smith - Duffey blowing saves……hopefully, no Pagan. This is a probable 10-14 more wins……can’t emphasize current Pen enough. Potentially, a healthy Mahle - Ober - Maeda with experienced Varland - Megill -,Moran -,Jax. All worth wins. No Bundy - No Archer!!! Vazquez is an upgrade as well. Could use A. McCutchen & more importantly a FA reliever! BIG. CHANGES!
  14. JD-TWINS
    How about your line-up with Jeffers catching……..Vázquez at DH……….Garlick in LF…….McCutchen in RF!!!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Chafin - Hand - Fulmer……..sign two of these guys!! If we can trade for the front end starter………pushes Maeda into the Pen & making it top flight Pen in baseball. We may be able to still sign McCutchen! Need a RH bat with Garlick as only other viable option. Can live with just the trade for starter & one reliever. McCutchen & 2nd FA reliever is asking a lot!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Acquire McCutchen…….against lefties, he’s in Right Field. We also have 8 other RH bats to start if desired!! Garlick in LF Buxton in CF Farmer at 3B Miranda at 1B Vazquez at DH Jeffers at C Correa at SS Polanco at 2B Hopefully, Celestino is not an option for the line-up.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Gotta LIGHTEN UP on FO!!! CC signing done. If they sign a FA reliever we’ve had an outstanding off season……..Gallo is a big swing for a guy that has a shot at having Power Impact………lower risk with the young depth behind him. Vázquez is also a very good signing………I’m sure CC was well aware of these adds. Trading Kepler along with López/Pagan and a Farm System IF that’s no longer needed for a front line starter……….Grand Slam Off-season!!!!! Miranda - Correa - Polanco - Araez - Vázquez is one of best Offensive Infields in the game!! Farmer is high end Utility guy & rounds out IF with Kirilof & Jeffers. Gordon - Buxton - Gallo………Larnach & Garlick 5-6 RH guys vs. Lefties & 5 LH guys vs. Righties in line-up. Araez - Buxton - Larnach - Polanco - Correa - Miranda - Gordon - Vázquez - Gallo………healthy Larnach & we’re awfully solid!
  18. JD-TWINS
    TIRED OF CC DRAMA - sounds like it’s over!! TWINS WIN?? Correa to the Twins for 6 years @ $200 million. On The Herds bottom line. Super - done - enough said. Probably, get OFF THE FO’s back!!! Kepler - Celestino - Pagan - some farm system guy for a Starting Pitcher Sign a reliever - please. Fulmer/Hand/Chafin….go get one!!
  19. JD-TWINS
    I’d like to see him take his youth, speed, strong arm, & defensive skills - along with his ability to walk at a high rate, to another ball club. To me, his youth & upside are his best attributes for trade value. He had 15 XBH in 347 at bats in ‘22 …….Arraez had 40 XBH in 547 at bats. Arraez bats 1st most of the time - trying to get on base, not drive the ball. He has nearly twice % of XBH as Celestino. Celestino has an eye test problem with bat speed. 4.5% XBH - 90% of batted balls are from 2nd baseman to right field foul line. Hopefully, other franchises will like his upside!!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like Cueto is signed: Kepler - Pagan - Celestino - López to Marlins for a starter. 2 upside OF for Fla. 2 re-work relievers with good stuff for Fla Yields them 2 guys on roster with 2 more potential guys all for $16 million……might be too much money?
  21. JD-TWINS
    TIRED of the CC drama!! Really need to MOVE ON & spend the $ on Free Agent depth. CUETO/WACHA (pick one) FULMER/CHAFIN/HAND (pick two) McCUTCHEN (consider) Is 2023 brighter with CC or an additional experienced depth arm (moves Maeda to the Pen) - along with 2 solid relievers - along with decent defensive outfielder at 36 & bench presence - RH hitting option in front of Garlick?? Which option is a BETTER TEAM? Outfield: Gordon (LF/CF/2B) - Buxton (CF/DH) - Gallo - McCutchen - Garlick Unless Gallo is really productive, he & Garlick are gone by Aug 1 & combination of Lewis/Walner/Lee are ready to go. Walner in St. Paul playing RF every day Kepler & Celestino are traded Larnach at DH & LF Infield: Miranda - Farmer - Polanco - Arraez (1B/3B/DH) - Kirilof Catchers: Vazquez & Jeffers
  22. JD-TWINS
    YOU ARE RIGHT - most starters don’t do well against better teams! Most ROOKIES don’t get 13 wins with a 3.55 ERA and are plugged in as the #1 guy either! Gotta cut Ryan a break. If he duplicates last year and avoids slump year we’ve got a really valuable guy! Another 2/3 of an inning per start gets him to around 165-175 innings in his 2nd year. He’s a potential #2 guy for next 7-8 years.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Pagan along with Mr. Lopez to rid ourselves of ghosts of Most Blown Saves (27) of any team I care about in ‘22!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Can only PENCIL IN a guy whose max innings per year has been 80 innings over 5 years & then to his best year of 92 1/3 in ‘21 was followed up by 56 innings in ‘22. His lack of availability coupled with Mahle questions on health and Maeda coming off surgery are why we should acquire via trade or sign another starter from FA! Signing starter depth protects against Ober - Mahle - Maeda & the potential/probable problems with at least one of them in ‘23. Need Varland - Winder - SWR for second line of depth defense!! We’ll need 7-8 guys able to start to get through the year.
  25. JD-TWINS
    The 48 1/3 over last 3 seasons Sale has been available for denotes at least as much risk as seeing if Cueto or Wacha can get guys out for 3 months, early in the year. With depth early we hedge against Ober, Mahle, & Maeda not being ready, so I agree we need a vet starter for depth. Also, lets SWR & Varland & Winder have time to be mentally sharp when plugged in for every 5th day action. I am willing to take a swing with Sale if we are giving up Kepler - López - Celestino - etc……..don’t want to trade good youth for this much health risk & $$$. If he can pitch it’s masterful for our staff. 130 innings of Sale at 3.50ERA & 8K/9 would be a really nice add. That’s Sale at career worst numbers. The depth starter, regardless of who we may acquire or sign from FA, allows Maeda to help in Pen. Sign Fulmer & one of Hand/Chafin, and we are deep all through the staff. Less $ than Sale & a $8 million guy like Wacha or Cueto along with 2 relievers is more attractive. What brings more value for winning games? SALE vs. FULMER, HAND, CUETO oh yes, and less risk for our $27 M/year. ALL FOR Sale & Fulmer & Hand if workable on the $$!!!
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