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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. Both for me as well. Guys like Kaat and Don Sutton were always GOOD pitchers, but probably not GREAT pitchers. Both Kaat and Sutton belong in the Hall in my opinion. Kaat as much for his 17 (SEVENTEEN) Gold Gloves in addition to his broadcasting excellence. Sutton, because he was GOOD for that long. I agree about Morris as well. I'll always love him for the thrills of 1991 but I thought Kaat was more deserving all along. Tony-O did have more than 10 years so I've always thought he belonged all along as well. I thought he should have been the MVP in 1965 instead of Zoilo and being the only player with batting titles his first two years is a unique accomplishment. Tony-O is MUCH more deserving than Harold Baines (for Pete's Sake...Harold Baines ???). This is why guys like Oliva, Puckett and Johan Santana are Hall worthy. But long term GOOD also needs to be considered (guys like Sutton and Kaat).
  2. This is a tough call, but I'll go with Santana and salute the comp to Sandy Koufax. Santana certainly SHOULD have won that 3rd Cy Young. Nathan is simply the BEST closer the Twins ever had. And he's "close" to Billy Wagner, but Wagner's numbers ARE better. Santana is being snubbed in a major way. As Koufax demonstrates (and Kirby Puckett as well) it's not always about "counting stats." Santana was elite. he belongs in the Hall.
  3. They need to find some sneaky good signings like Schoop and CJ Cron, in positions where they need them. Those were two of the more shrewd off season moves the Twins have made. Nellie Cruz was one of the BEST signings ever. Especially in 2019. That one for me, comes in just behind Jack Morris in 1991.
  4. I think Martin would be getting a look long before Lewis. Lewis simply must polish off the rust of not playing for two years. If he explodes early or fizzles early the Twins shouldn't read too much into either. He simply has to PLAY. martin on the other hand was a standout in college and got on base over 40% of the time last year. He has positional flexibility, although the Twins would love to see how he handles SS early in the minor league season. If he's tearing it up, he could be up after the All Star break. Miranda is ready. He has nothing left to prove at AAA. Trade Arraez for pitching and get Miranda on the field and consistent AB's from the opening bell. I think he'll do very well.
  5. Trading for Adelberto Mondesi (KC) or Paul DeJong (Cardinals) may cost a lower level arm (but not a leg). Both of them are better options IMHO than Polanco back at SS.
  6. Donaldson is the Kirk Cousins of Vikings fan. The easy one to blame for everything. He's still a solid player, and trading him now, when he's a negative asset would assure the Twins would not receive anything near "fair trade value." In my opinion, JD is not blocking our prized rookie Miranda...Arraez is !! Arraez has the 2nd highest trade value among the Twins starting lineup. HE should be traded for pitching. let Donaldson play some 3B, DH and maybe even work in some 1B. Get all you can out of him this year and if a trade makes sense at the deadline, do it. Otherwise, track how Sano is doing. We aren't keeping BOTH Sano and Donaldson after 2022. MAYBE we keep one of them. I think it will probably be Donaldson.
  7. OMG Mike ! What a treat to read this. GREAT stuff all across TD today. I've already shoveled snow after reading a bit of TD and having a cup of coffee. Now, I'm washing a load of laundry and preparing to vacuum (my wife was overnight in the Twin Cities babysitting grandchildren so our son and his wife could go out and celebrate his wife's birthday) so I'm just doin' my chores and taking breaks to read TD and make a comment here and there. Jerry West, Lance Alworth and Gale Sayers were my FIRST non baseball favorite players (Oliva, Koufax and Mays) so we are of a similar era. Yes, I too remember when Baseball was King. I think that's why we embrace change in the other sports but not so much in Baseball. I was always FOR the DH because it allowed me a couple more years to watch Tony-O hit. I'm fine with how football and basketball have "evolved." In fact, watching old ABA games on CBS as a kid I thought the concept of the three point shot was brilliant (not just a gimmick). I would have loved to see Jerry West operate with a 3-point shot. But "openers" and shifts and "swinging for the fences" etc...I have "accepted' but I have not "embraced." Baseball will always be "King" for me but I sometimes think that "I" need to stop pining for the old days of 4 man pitching staffs and guys who "pitched."
  8. I gotta do more than just give tarheelstwinsfan a rec, or thumbs up or whatever. GREAT story ! On a COLD Minnesota winter's day, THIS is what TD is all about. Well, this, and choosing between Puckett & Carew, or debating whether the Twins will use an opener for games this year, or which young Twins pitchers should come north right out of spring training or which young Twins prospect is this season most crucial to, or what SP's should we trade for or sign, or who will be or should be our SS this year and in the future or...well you get where I'm going with this.
  9. I agree with mikelink45 on the topic and the opener. But I'm a hopeless traditionalist who misses pitchers who "pitched" and just didn't go Max Effort/Velocity on every pitch. That said...I also agree with ML Ready that some of these BP arms are suited to, and should go, 2 innings at a time. Guys seldom pitch on back to back days unless they're the closer. So why not leverage 2 innings out of these guys. And Cody, I would opine that not "SOME" Twins pitchers are bound to be on pitch counts and innings limits. Given the make-up of our current staff and it's youth I think almost "ALL" of them will. If Winder, Ryan or Ober start, I'm betting they go 3-4 innings most times, even if they are effective. After 3-4 innings, bringing Jax or Duran etc...in to pitch 1-2 innings would seem to fit. So would the idea of Jax, Duran or even Canterino (who I want to be a starter who can go 175 innings someday) the first two innings and THEN (in the traditional opener followed by a starter routine) have Ryan, Ober and Winder come in. And I can't believe I wrote "traditional opener." But yes, even though I think it's vital for the Twins to add one more SP via trade and another via FA, THIS is the plan I think the FO and coaching staff have for 2022. Give the young arms innings to show their stuff and learn how to pitch at the major league level, but also to closely control their workload as much as possible.
  10. I would say Lewis. The weight of being the #1 overall pick means you need to be at least a solid to good major league player. I like his potential versatility, but he's got to be my starting SS for the next 10 years. His bat to ball skills need to improve, but with his speed and power potential, if he starts making consistent, hard contact, we can allow ourselves to dream a little higher. Canterino and Duran belong on this list (as do Balazovic and Winder). But because the Twins have SO MANY pitchers in this category and only Lewis and Martin as possible SS's, I go with Lewis.
  11. Great Topic and nicely laid out. The way in which you framed it really shows the strengths vs the weaknesses (if you can call them weaknesses) of each player. Yes, Carew had better offensive stats and a longer runway--leading to more WAR. But I'm going to say Kirby had the better "career." The weight of those two World Series Championships and the key contributions of Kirby in them are what puts Kirby ahead of Rod for me. Because what's the point of playing ? It's to win the World Series right ? And Puckett did that TWICE. (As a kid who grew up living and dying with every at bat for Oliva and Carew this is quite difficult for me to choose Puckett over Carew, but, this is just how I feel today as I prepare to go out and shovel some Minnesota SNOW)!!
  12. Tony O That's why I'll be in Cooperstown for the first time ever this summer with my lovely wife. It's gonna be a great trip !!
  13. Interesting piece. While I do not think the Twins bullpen is "settled" I guess I'd only be interested in Trivino as he could be included in a trade for a SP (Montas, Bassitt or Manaea). The Twins need a RH compliment to Rogers provided Rocco does the "usual" Rocco and goes by a sort of BP by committee. Trivino has closer experience. My focus on Twins pitching is primarily starters. I wouldn't be averse to adding someone like Trivino but I think the BP is a place the Twins could use a lot of their young arms in very specific roles, limiting innings and protecting health while also finding out who can compete at the major league level.
  14. I do NOT extend Arraez. Look, I love his "game" and and enjoy watching him. But you're playing with dynamite if you extend him. Trade him for pitching (he's an Oakland A's kind of player) and let his NEW team decide if they'd like to extend him. You're really walking a tightrope if you think you can extend him, and then get MORE value out of trading him.
  15. Great points by many on this topic. At this point of the cold Minnesota Winter everything is speculation. Which is fine, because speculation can sometimes warm your feet up. We will hit and score runs decently. Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson. They'll hit. I expect Kiriloff to break out. Will Sano be better? Will Garver ? Is Kepler hopeless, or will a new hitting coach get thru to him ? Will we stay healthy ? Those are all legit questions but in the grand scheme of the 2022 season it comes down to pitching (as it always does for EVERY baseball team). Will the Twins acquire at least ONE solid major league pitcher to lead the staff ? Will the young guns stay healthy and show their stuff in 2022 ? As others pointed out: Nobody said the Giants were going to be any good in 2021. They won 107 games !!! Back when the Royals first returned to the World Series I don't remember any "buzz" about them. The Braves had young pitching and thus "potential" but then Soroka was lost for the season and many of their "young guns" disappointed. Olney got ONE thing right. The A.L. Central is NOT the N.L. West or the A.L. East. The White Sox are GOOD. Detroit and KC are improving. The Guardians will pitch. But the Twins are not bereft of talent. With a couple shrewd moves (and shouldn't we EXPECT our FO to be able to make these moves?) the Twins could be right in the thick of it. Inaction by our FO will result in another last place finish. Which would (or should) lead to the dismissal of the FO as well as Rocco.
  16. I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere Nice job bean)!! Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy." We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense. Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday. And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF. There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options. Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power. Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense. He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine, but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well). I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez. It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense. If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.
  17. These are all valid and good points Theo, and I would add each reason is why Arraez is the Twins 2nd best trade asset to Polanco. I'm not trading Polanco. I'm building with him going forward. In another post, I laid out how I would keep Arraez and trade Austin Martin if that is what it would take to acquire an Ace potential pitcher from the Marlins like Sixto Sanchez. Why would Miami trade a pitcher like that ? Because they already have TWO Ace level young pitchers in Rogers and Alcantara a STRONG #2 in Pablo Lopez as well as a very talented #3 in Cabrera. They also have young, high ceiling pitchers like Meyer and Luzardo. Quite simply, they're LOADED with young pitching but VERY short on offense. Arraez is ready to step into a place in Miami's lineup right now. Austin Martin would take a little longer, half a season at minimum. I'm NOT trading Miranda. He's playing 3B when Donaldson DH's. He's playing 2B when Polanco DH's. He's playing 1B when Sano DH's (which might be very often). He may not hit .300 like Arraez but his power and run creation will be superior. I'm risking it with Miranda. He's not starting 2022 in St. Paul. What more does he have to prove there ? Arraez is one of my favorite players on the Twins. But I'm moving him for Sixto Sanchez if possible. I'll be 64 in May. I saw Rod Carew when he came up in 1967. You can lay all the "comparisons" you want side by side of Carew and Arraez, even down to BOTH of them having knee problems. There ARE similarities. There is only one Rod Carew. To Miami, I stress the heck out of those similarities. But there is only one Rod Carew. I'm looking to add Sanchez to a staff that could see Balazovic, Winder, Duran and Canterino to go with Ryan and Ober. Arraez is my #1 chip to get him. Austin Martin is #2.
  18. First Covid, and now a lockout is doing MLB no favors whatsoever. And as mikelink45 pointed out, it's hurting EVERY MLB club and their young players who desperately need developmental time. ALL these young Twins pitchers have had their development disrupted (and injuries haven't helped either). The same with Lewis and other young hitters. The Twins still have the payroll flexibility to sign Pineda and then go big with either a Story or Rodon signing. Pineda is realistic and one of the other two probably a pipe dream. But trading someone like Arraez, Kepler, Martin or Larnach for young, controllable pitching, like Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer from Miami or proven big league pitchers like Montas, Bassitt or Manaea from the A's is certainly something the Twins FO has to consider. You just can't go into next season with Ryan, Ober, Bundy and maybe Pineda/Dobnak. Competing in 2022 and being competitive in 2023 and beyond are not mutually exclusive goals. No team should ever be so shortsighted as to be "All IN" on the next season with no regard to the future. But there are trades the Twins FO could make or at least persue that could benefit the Twins in 2022 and beyond. Arraez, Miranda and Martin are "somewhat" redundant. Add in Gordon and Lewis and one or two of these guys can and should be moved. I don't trade Miranda. He's on the Twins from day one this season replacing Arraez once he's dealt. I don't trade Lewis. I've just simply got to find out what I have and he's currently more valuable to the Twins now, than what he could bring back. That leaves Martin. If I had the opportunity to deal Martin straight up for Sixto Sanchez (Martin 30.8 MLB Trade Values and Sanchez 30.0) I'd do it ! The Marlins have a glut of really talented, but really young SP'ing. We need a guy like Sanchez to build around our starting staff. Martin would be an extremely valuable addition for the Marlins. An on-base machine with positional flexibility and years of team control. Sanchez is READY to pitch in the big leagues, and heading a future Twins staff with Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Ryan and Ober would be just fine with me. If I made a trade like this, I'd sign Story in a heartbeat. Royce Lewis could very well be my SS of the future and Story could move to 3B once the Twins move on from Donaldson. But Lewis could also be a pretty good LF'er. How about an outfield of Lewis, Buxton and Kepler ? Heck, Larnach could take over in RF and nothing would fall with Buxton and Lewis out there. Assets are just that...assets. You leverage them to make your team BETTER.
  19. Scouting here is so important, but so is realistic "projection" of what the player "could" be. I agree that international signing is a potential gold mine for talent. The thing is, so many of these guys are SO YOUNG that many of us will have forgotten about them for a couple years while they grow and mature in the low minors and then suddenly "remember" who they were once they finally get to High A or Double A. I'm glad we got 3 highly thought of players but I also know that the BEST one might be one of the other guys we signed later.
  20. In my humble opinion, Blyleven and Kaat were never "borderline" HOF'ers. Had Bert pitched for the Yankees his career stats would have seen him elected YEARS ago. Kaat, at minimum, should have had the Twins retire his number YEARS ago. As was mentioned, in 1966 there was only one Cy Young Award winner for BOTH Leagues. Koufax was "otherworldly" in his final big league season. Look up the stats. If the A.L. had named a CY Young winner as well, Kaat would have easily won. Plus, add on SIXTEEN (16 !!!) Gold Gloves and with 283 career wins he EARNED his ticket to Cooperstown. But yes, the TWINS should have put him in THEIR Hall of Fame YEARS ago. What I'm NOT sure of is this: When Joe Nathan is inducted into the Twins HOF, will we put up TWO #36's ???
  21. And Old fox, the Padres also have young LHP's like Gore and Weathers. If the Twins made an offer, one way to plug another hole in the lineup and lower the cost would be to take on the salary of Wil Myers in a deal. Myers would be the Twins LF'er and middle of the lineup hitter. The Padres appear to be very motivated to clear the salaries of Myers and especially Eric Hosmer. Once the lockout ends, I'd call 'em up.
  22. I love it when guys on TD propose trades. It ALWAYS makes for good discussion, so Thank You 21bdl21 ! I agree with the comments that we don't need MORE prospects, especially pitchers. We have something like 16 legit pitching prospects so acquiring more just leads to 40-man roster headaches. If I'm giving up Arraez, I'm looking for a legit Big League pitcher who can help the Twins in 2022 and beyond with an extension. With a value (MLB Trade Values) of 27.9 Arraez is the Twins BEST trade piece NOT named Polanco. Arraez has defensive versatility and elite bat to ball skills. He should be able to bring back a very good pitcher...or TWO. Bassitt and Manaea from Oakland have a combined value of 35.5. (Bassitt 17.0 and Manaea 18.5). The Twins should be talking to Oakland about a deal centered around Arraez and looking to bring back Montas (39.6 value) or BOTH Bassitt and Manaea. The Twins should NOT be punting 2022. They should be building to compete in 2022 and beyond.
  23. In looking at some of the other comments where we're discussing if not Andrus, then who at SS ? I'll admit, Andrus is not high on my list of "I want him to be my SS." He's only a means to acquire solid, veteran pitching, which the Twins desperately need. That's the ONLY fascination I have with Andrus. If I'm the Twins FO I'm looking at Adelberto Mondesi from the Royals as a target. They have Nicky Lopez, a Gold Glove caliber SS as well as Bobby Witt Jr. Mondesi has TONS of upside potential, but all he's done is disappoint in K.C. I'd make a run at him. My other option would be to talk to the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. He's a solid glove with power who strikes out too much, but it appears he may no longer be in their plans as Sosa beat him out last year and the Cardinals are rumored to be considering Story. DeJong is only a 4.5 value and the electric arm of Alex Reyes is a 0.0 value. If I'm the Twins I offer Valimont or Sands for BOTH. Again, I've solved my SS problem in the short term and I've added an electric arm that seems to have fallen out of favor in St. Louis. I actually like this deal better as it's far less risky than the Oakland deal. I'd still probably circle back to the A's for a discussion because I feel Arraez is "their kind of player" and with a value of 27.9 and Bassitt and Manaea having a combined value of 35.5 I'd still like to see what they'd be willing to do. Imagine a Twins off-season that added a SS like DeJong and an arm like Alex Reyes as well as veteran SP's like Bassitt & Manaea and the biggest assets you parted with would be Arraez, Cole Sands and Valimont. I'd feel pretty good about that heading into 2022.
  24. Doc Gast, who else would you suggest other than SWR ? The Value made him the most logical for me, as the other similar value was Canterino and I REALLY like Canterino. Perhaps a couple of pitchers with a combined value of 8 to 10 instead of SWR? Brandon, we would never get Montas AND Manaea...BUT, we could get BOTH Bassitt and Manaea instead of Montas. This would be "quantity" (and pretty decent quality) over the Blue Chip of Montas, who is younger, better and controlled for more than just the 2022 season. But the idea of BOTH Bassitt and Manaea IS interesting if Oakland would part with both to get Arraez and SWR back. In that case, if I'm the Twins FO I'm monitoring how all my young pitchers perform in 2022. And I'm also measuring what I'm willing to do with Bassitt and Manaea up to the trade deadline and for 2023. If the Twins are in the thick of it in the A.L. Central (and with Bassitt & Manaea I'm thinking they WOULD be) I'm deciding which of Bassitt or Manaea I want to offer that 3-year $45 million dollar contract to and which one I either trade, or let walk after the 2022 season. But the key is, I want ONE of those guys in my rotation for 2023 for SURE. I want the veteran presence and stability going forward with my host of young guns. In a dream world, the Twins would be building a young pitching staff like the Baltimore Orioles in the early-mid 60's. Young pitchers like Bunker, Pappas, Barber, McNally and Palmer, but with savvy vets around like Robin Roberts, Dick Hall and Stew Miller. In every scenario I'm commenting on, I'm operating under the premise that the Twins are going to compete in 2022. Otherwise, why sign Buxton ? The "option" Andrus has for 2023 could be troublesome, but if Lewis shows he's ready, there would be a definite pathway to playing Lewis more in the second half of 2022 and Andrus doesn't get the needed AB's to qualify for making it a player option. Andrus is really nothing more than a decent stop gap until we know what we have (or don't have) at SS. he's a means to an end to acquire either Montas or both Bassitt & Manaea. But I'm interested in what Doc Gast would offer other than SWR. I hate giving a pitcher with potential like he has up too, but something has to entice Oakland to give us Montas or Bassitt/Manaea in addition to us taking Andrus off their books.
  25. I voted "Like to Read a little more" because as always "It depends on what else you get back." Here is a trade scenario based on MLB Trade Values where we acquire Andrus a little somethin' else: Athletics Get: Arraez 27.9 and Simeon Woods-Richardson 9.6 Total 37.5 Twins Get: Elvis Andrus -4.2 and Frankie Montas 39.6 Total 35.4 It's a bit of an overpay for the Twins but the A's would do it to get a versatile bat and a young pitcher with very good potential. I'd do it in a heartbeat for the Twins because I get Montas to head my rotation for at minimum 2 seasons while my young pitchers sort out who's a keeper and who isn't. One thing I have to applaud the current FO for is that at times we've listed at least 16 young, up and coming pitchers in the Twins organization. 16 !! We can't possibly expect all of them to work out and with our current dire need for "experienced" pitching (that is also fairly young and talented) we can afford to part with ONE promising arm to get a proven big league #1 or #2. AND, while Andrus may not be the BEST SS out there he does check several boxes. 1: He's a dependable fielder and he's durable. He still has decent bat to ball skills, in other words, he won't put up a Simmons type offensive year. 2: He's a perfect stop gap SS while the Twins figure out that Austin Martin is their future LF'er and Lewis either shows he's the future SS or he's a RF/3B candidate. Montas is valued at 39.6. Bassitt is 17.0 and Manaea is 18.0 for a total value of 35.5. If you wanted, you could swap Bassitt and Manaea in for Montas and get a little something more from Oakland, but I'm choosing Montas because Bassitt and Manaea are one season acquisitions and Montas has Ace potential and is multiple. Plus, with the pipeline of young pitchers ripening in our organization, we don't need 2 "placeholders" we need an Ace to build around. If Montas ends up being the equal of Berrios (or even better) then I sign HIM to the extension Jose wanted because by that time, the Twins will have multiple, young pitchers who are extremely affordable contributing at the big league level. THIS is why I would consider trading for Elvis Andrus.
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