TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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I will agree the op could have had more "depth" to it, and bean5302's chart says more than the op itself did. But there was a time that the Twins were one of the top teams in MLB with Latin players in the 1960's. I was a Tony Oliva guy. He was my favorite player on the Twins, but when Rod Carew came along Tony-O got some serious competition. Both were Rookies of the Year. Tony-O EXPLODED onto the scene with back-to-back A.L. Batting Titles. Rod was a little more quiet, but once he won his first A.L. Batting Title in 1969 he made his case for "Greatest Twin Ever." I would like to see the Twins do better in Latin America. We don't seem to want to compete for Japanese stars. But as someone else put it, you just can't take a snapshot and call it a major failure. In the near future the Twins could have E-Rod, Gabe Gonzalez, Noah Cardenas, Eduardo Tait, Mendez, Jimenez, Olivar and any number of others already listed as well, up with the team.
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- emmanuel rodriguez
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Bowden's rumor could be nothing but "Hot Air" but it's undeniable that the Red Sox offense is a mess right now and neither Durbin or rookie Marcelo Meyer is getting the job done at 3B. Consider this, with the "somewhat encouraging" start Lewis had before his injury, his value on BBTV had been 18.8, then 19.4, then 25.7 and now it's at 30.3. That's NOT selling low. And as someone else stated, if Lewis comes back and starts hitting his value will rise even higher. But he will probably just get hurt again. Look, Brooks Lee is NOT a Major League SS but could possibly be functional as a 2B or 3B. If it were up to me, I'd trade him once I'd gotten a look at Culpepper and if Marek Houston showed continued promise with the bat. Houston is our future SS anyway because the glove is Elite. I think Houston will be just fine if the Twins let him be "Austin Martin" and not expect Emmanuel Rodriguez. I like what Martin is giving the Twins right now. The Blue Jays aren't expecting Ernie Clement to be a 15 HR guy. bean made the point that the Red Sox probably don't want to give us anything to get Lewis. Well of course they don't. They wanted to steal Joe Ryan as well and it cost them at the deadline and in the post season. The Red Sox offense is a mess right now because they can't get guys consistent AB's. They have 4 good OF's and Yoshida and they're having a devil of a time trying to fit 5 guys into 4 slots. Things are going well for the Twins right now, but I don't expect it to last. This team has work to do come the trade deadline and our roster construction is still grossly uneven. Lewis currently has a value of 30.3. Jarren Duran has seen his once lofty 50.0 value crater to 31.0. How about Lewis for Duran? This would break up the Red Sox log jam in the outfield and give them a potentially big bat at 3B, filling the hole left by Bregman. Duran moves into the Twins OF in place of Wallner and goes to the top of the order. This would be the first of many moves the Twins will be making before or at the trade deadline. Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers, Larnach, Ober, Wallner could ALL be moved. Brooks Lee very could as well depending on what we get in return. Others like SWR or Josh Bell could be deadline moves. The Twins aren't going to look anything like this current team come baseball in 2027, whenever that happens. Ryan Jeffers is swinging a hot bat. The Red Sox need a Catcher as well. Maybe a bigger deal happens later with Jeffers and Joe Ryan, but I'd make a Lewis for Jarren Duran deal as soon as Lewis comes off the I.L. and move Lee to 3B with Culpepper at SS.
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I get where you're coming from bean5302, but pitching out of the bullpen this season doesn't mean it's a permanent exile from the rotation. Guys like Zebby, and Festa (if he can EVER stay healthy) are getting closer to pitching themselves OUT of a future rotation, so in some respects, it's a fluid situation. I think BOTH Prielipp and Rojas have a strong chance to be part of a future Twins rotation, and those chances increase if Joe Ryan is traded at the deadline (depending on whether a young SP is part of the deal). For a team bereft of LH SP for so many seasons, the Twins could have Dasan Hill along with Prielipp and Rojas in a future rotation. Wouldn't THAT be something. But I, for one, wouldn't mind seeing Prielipp and Rojas get innings in the big leagues this season, even if the Twins break them in gradually by pitching out of the pen.
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What the Heck Is Going On with Zebby Matthews?
TopGunn#22 replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
This is just a baffling mystery. I agree with the idea that he doesn't need MORE pitches. He needs better command of his pitches, and that usually comes down to working on fewer pitches to improve his command of 3 or 4 offerings. Dasan Hill is lurking. Moving Zebby to the BP now doesn't need to be permanent. But it may be needed to narrow his array of pitches into refining 2-3 that he can actually command. -
It's April 13th and Outman is still hitless on the season. Fedko going nearly 30-30 last year has to count for SOMETHING. It's just time to cut the cord on Outman. Why not give Fedko a shot and see what he does with it? This provides additional time for E-Rod and Walker Jenkins as well as Gabe Gonzalez to continue to work on things at St. Paul. Outman is doing NOTHING for the Twins. Fedko at least has some positional versatility and gives the Twins a power/speed option in a platoon or off the bench. Come to think of it, now would be a good time to revisit Trevor Larnach trade possibilities.
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- minor league report
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I agree 100% that it's time to play Winokur in the OF...exclusively. When you have a player his size and speed who has gotten as many reps at SS as he has, it's hard not to put him in the upper, upper echelon of "athletes" in the Twins minor leagues. But when you play on the same team as Marek Houston, realistically, how many reps can you expect to get at SS ?? And unfortunately, that goes for DeAndrade. I agree with those who are also somewhat baffled by his sliding standing in the Twins prospect rankings. For him, it really comes down to health. I believe that if DeAndrade stays healthy in 2026, he will put together a season that will see him move UP the rankings of prospects. Dasan Hill is probably the #1 guy NOT named Walker Jenkins I'll be looking at. But I will be interested in checking up on a number of guys on this team and anticipating a promotion if things go well. Houston, Tait, Winokur, Diaw and DeAndrade all merit attention. Depending on who the Twins pick at #3 in the Amateur Draft (another SS?) that guy could find himself on this team at some point in 2026.
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- adrian bohorquez
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If I were the Twins, I'd very much want to lock Jenkins up pre-debut, even with the nightmare of what has become of Royce Lewis, a former #1 overall pick. Scott Boras is a unique agent. He has a philosophy of wanting to get his client to FA, even if a good deal is on the table. Exhibit "A" is Ryan Jeffers. There is often talk on TD about what an above average hitter Jeffers is for a Catcher, but in reality, he's average. No where near "elite." Add to that his below average all around catching skills and I'm left wondering why Boras didn't initiate extension talks with the Twins. We all know there is no way Jeffers is in a Twins uniform after this season. The best we can hope for is some kind of value in a deadline deal, but the Twins have little leverage with Jeffers at this point. The Brewers have been fairly aggressive in trying to buy out FA with young stars. But frankly, rather than Cooper Pratt getting the deal he did, the guy I thought the Brewers would have locked up was 18-year old SS Jesus Made. Pratt is a "more advanced hit tool" version of Marek Houston. Pratt's defensive skill at SS is top shelf. But he's baseball's #62 rated prospect beginning this season at AAA. Made is baseball's #3 (THREE !!!) overall prospect with a switch-hitting hit tool that is tremendous. Made has the ability to stay at SS, but with a glove like Pratt, could find himself at 3B. A 2027 Brewer infield with Made at 3B, Pratt at SS and a Gold Glove 2B like Brice Turang is something Brewer fans can really get excited about. I think the Twins should be talking with Scott Boras about a Walker Jenkins contract. But does Boras have any desire to take the phone call?
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I agree JD-Twins. The current status is the logical path to follow until guys either claim their spot or fumble it away through ineffectiveness. While Taylor Rogers is the "most qualified" to be our Closer, he hasn't really had that role for quite some time. Even if Festa was healthy, (and Pablo Lopez was healthy and at the top of the Twins rotation) Festa would still be pitching in the 7th inning of so until he had proved he could be effective. With Lopez out for the season, Festa may be considered as a possible rotation arm, depending on rotation pitchers health and effectiveness. We had all assumed Festa would spend this season in the bullpen. That doesn't seem a lock anymore. This scattered approach will probably continue throughout this season.
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- justin topa
- kody funderburk
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It's hard to argue with a single point Cody made as well as many of the comments. This is the big disappointment in the Twins "brain-trust" and front office. Roster construction is always a challenge, but the Twins have elevated it to an Olympic Event and it's just baffling how they come up with some of these decisions.
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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If velocity and command were clearly lacking this was an obvious decision for Hendricks and Chafin. And it's something that is unlikely to suddenly turn around for these aging veterans. "Smart" GM's and organizations usually trade guys like this away before it's obvious to the rest of the league they've got nothing left in the tank. With Chafin and Hendricks this was evident. With guys like Larnach and Ober, it's even MORE obvious. I'm not going to delude myself that something "remarkable" is happening to the Twins ownership/brain trust. I'm not against scooping up a Hendricks or Chafin to see whether or not they have anything left. Every MLB team (except maybe the Dodgers) should try to find a diamond in the rough. But with the Hendricks/Chafin play having failed, I think the Twins should be looking at a Kopech move to shore up the BP and at least have someone other than Taylor Rogers that has some closing experience. We're on the doorstep of the season and a relief pitcher with proven effectiveness, albeit shaky health is still unsigned. It sounds like a 2-year contract for $13 million would get it done, The Brewers are scuffling through multiple SP injuries to begin this season. Might they be interested in Bailey Ober? Trading Ober would see Zebby Matthews take the #5 spot in the rotation. To me, finding out what all these young SP's can do in 2026 is more important than supposedly "competing for a playoff spot." What exactly IS our payroll at right now? What wiggle room do we actually have? If Ober and Larnach were traded, shedding salary and allowing younger players a spot on the team could Kopech be added at no additional cost? It seems that would be a good strategy. Unfortunately, Larnach hasn't hit his weight in spring training and Ober's velocity is quite concerning.
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I'm in favor of dropping Kreidler from the 40 man AND cutting Arcia. Neither does much for me. Waiver wire or trade is a better option. Both Outman and Roden played well enough to have earned a spot on the team. Trade one of them to a team that needs an OF and who has a SS who is an obvious upgrade from Arcia/Kreidler. (that bar is NOT very high). I realize we have SS prospects in Culpepper and Houston and will probably draft another one with our first pick in the draft. But Lee's glove isn't up to SS standards and we need a better option.
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- orlando arcia
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The Twins have invested in SP's both in trades and the draft for 5-6 years now and our current "State of the Staff" is underwhelming. EVERYTHING would be different if the Twins were entering this season as they had anticipated...with a healthy Pablo Lopez fronting the rotation, an All Star #2 in Joe Ryan and a resurgent Bailey Ober throwing 93 mph with his fastball setting up his devasting change-up. 2 of those 3 aren't going to happen. While Mick Abel seems to have taken a giant step forward this spring training, Festa is hurt (again), Zebby hasn't impressed at all. Bradley has had a couple nice outings but still lacks consistency, and SWR is, well...SWR. Good enough to be an average #5 but still seeming to be light years from #3 status. There are some nice prospects coming in the next year or two, but for 2026 it's not looking like a strength. Maybe they will surprise me, but I'm not confident. Zebby is especially confounding because normally his stuff is pretty good, but he's far too hittable. Now it appears his velocity and stuff in general are down from last year. It's not the kind of encouragement I had hoped to find in spring training and time is running out.
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- joe ryan
- bailey ober
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Has Zebby Matthews Lost His Rotation Spot?
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To me it's clear Abel has earned the #5 spot (and he may just out perform SP #4 & #3) and that Zebby hasn't done enough to put himself ahead of SWR and Taj. But as it has been pointed out, Zebby starting out in St. Paul is NOT a disaster. Would I have liked him to beat out Ober for a rotation spot? CERTAINLY. But Zebby will very likely get at least 20 starts this year. Since I'm not buying the hopium that the Twins will be contenders this year, my focus for 2026 is where we will be once baseball starts getting played in 2027. Zebby should be a part of the rotation by then for sure. -
Chpetitt19, we, meaning you and I, honestly have no idea what kind of "value" Ober had or has. Neither of us has any solid information on that. BBTV has Ober's value at 18.0 which is down a bit from his off season 21.0. That doesn't make me "right" because I used that as the basis for my comment. I would agree with you on assessing his value after last season and so far in spring training. I'm not impressed with Ober at all. But the truth of Ober's value probably lays somewhere in between that 18.0 and zero. I would just say that with pitching injuries a certainty, probably every major league team would be interested in at least discussing a trade. If the offers were low-ball specials I can see rebuffing them. But in the bigger picture, I'd rather see young pitchers like Abel, Bradley, Zebby and possibly Prielipp get the Ober innings and get what I can for him in a trade. Maybe Ober scuffles himself to semi-mediocrity and we can get a bag of balls sometime this season from a pitching needy team. But the future is not with Baily Ober. His mythical "value" stands at 18.0 right now, but I only see it getting worse as the season progresses.
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I agree with TJSweens. I had hoped we could have traded Ober for something we needed, especially after Lopez was lost for the season. The Twins are not competing for the divisional title this season. They will not be a Wild Card team. Hanging onto Ryan until the trade deadline, while risky, is something I understand. Hanging on to Ober, when the future is tied to Abel, Bradley, Matthews, SWR and to a lesser immediate extent, Connor Prielipp, I would have moved Ober while he still maintained a certain level of "value." There might have been hope that Ober would regain that smidge of velocity he needs to be effective and that in doing so, would make him quite a trade chip at the deadline, or sooner, as SP break down at all times and especially the most inconvenient. And while I'll acknowledge it's still "kind of" early, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks in less than 3 innings does not instill confidence in me that Ober is going to get better. He might. But I'm not betting my house mortgage on it.
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For Ober, the Best News Was How Good He Felt
TopGunn#22 replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
His fastball NEEDS those extra couple mph because if he doesn't have it, his change up looks way too similar to his fastball. When you're talking major league hitters, the margin between a successful pitch and one that gets crushed is razor thin. It was encouraging to see him throw yesterday. He's essentially the #2 SP now unless and until one of Abel, Zebby, Bradley or SWR out-pitches him. I still believe we won't be able to compete this season, but we should have enough to keep the White Sox in last place. But at the trade deadline, if we have guys like Ryan, Ober, Jeffers and Bell healthy and producing, we should be able to maximize what we get back to lay a more solid foundation to build off of for 2027 and beyond. We will also have a better idea if Lee or Culpepper can handle SS or what E-Rod, Jenkins, Gonzalez and Prielipp can do going forward. -
Good article Matthew. Whether this was by design or not, once this reality of having 4 lefty's in the BP took shape, I was pretty certain the idea of trying Connor Prielipp out in the pen sort of went away. As shattered as the Twins BP was after the the trade deadline, I kind of thought, with the track records of all the BP candidates in camp that we would end up with these 4 lefty's making the team. But it's going to be a little scary when Bobby Witt Jr. comes to the plate in a high leverage situation and one of these guys has to get him out.
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- taylor rogers
- andrew chafin
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Minnesota Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop
TopGunn#22 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is a stark reminder how absolutely clueless the Twins organization has been for many years. Royce Lewis had the best chance to be a major league SS, but injuries and excessive weight training changed his body type and transformed him into a 3B. The Twins are in an unacceptable gap for 2026 and 2027 at the SS position. Lee, for whatever positives he has will probably not survive the year at SS. He just isn't physically gifted enough to shine there, and I question selecting him where they did as the Twins should have been aware of those physical limitations. Does anybody envision Lee ever making the play Houston did behind 2B?? I wonder if Brooks Lee will even be a Twin in 2027/2028. Now the Twins are forced to consider rushing another kid (Culpepper) who many think is destined to be a 3B to rescue themselves from the below average ceiling of Lee. Heck, when you look at what Brooks Lee did at the plate post Correa trade you could almost find yourself thinking "why not just stick Marek Houston in there NOW!!!" There is a high chance the player the Twins select with the 3rd overall pick in the amateur draft this June will be a SS. Will it be a college player or a high school player? How quickly could that player realistically challenge for the major league starting job? SS is an absolute mess for the Twins and when SS is considered the foundation for any good major league defense, it makes it all the more disappointing that this team had to make a very expensive mistake on Carlos Correa when almost every other major league team didn't think Correa could handle SS for long with his persistent foot problems.- 15 replies
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- brooks lee
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What we're seeing from Abel does not appear to me to be fool's gold. It's a continuation of how he finished last season. Cody's opening line is spot on. Abel has been the most encouraging development of Spring Training so far. And Bradley didn't disappoint yesterday either. As Abel has said, he's not so focused on his mechanics now. That's happening naturally through all the hard work he's put in. His primary focus now is the chess match between pitcher and hitter, and so far he's executing flawlessly. I'm in total agreement that the Twins should be focusing on the upside potential of players with an eye on being a team ready to seriously compete in 2028. There are far too may things that have to break perfectly for the Twins to have a prayer to compete in 2026, and a key component, Pablo Lopez, has already gone horribly wrong. At some point this season we will see Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers traded, probably Ober if he doesn't completely flop in 2026. There's a 50/50 chance or better that Byron Buxton is traded as well. By the end of May, we will be seeing a Twins team probably 10 games under .500. The teardown that began at last year's trade deadline will be completed at or before THIS year's trade deadline. It's important in this season to get a good look at the young pitchers, Abel, Bradley, Zebby, Prielipp, SWR, and the young hitters, Keaschall, Lewis, Lee, Rodon, E-Rod, Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez. When baseball games finally start getting played in 2027 the rotation is going to look completely different and the lineup will as well.
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Twins Daily 2026 Top Prospects: #6 Dasan Hill, LHP
TopGunn#22 replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Dasan Hill has been on my radar ever since we drafted him. He's starting to show what the Twins had "projected" him to be able to do, namely, hit the high 90's or better with his fastball and tighten up his breaking pitches. With all pitchers it comes down to command. I'll really be "thirsting" for weekly updates on how he is progressing. If things go like I think they'll go, he could be a fast mover through the Twins system this spring/summer. The absolute ceiling would be to see him make it to St. Paul in August. That may be a stretch if they limit his innings later in the season. For not having a LH SP in the rotation in what seems like FOREVER...The Twins in 2 years could see Connor Prielipp and Dasan Hill as big pieces. Without any 2026 or beyond draft choices factored in, it's possible the rotation could be: Zebby, Abel, Bradley, Prielipp and Hill...and not necessarily in that order. -
jmlease1 makes an excellent point about walks drying up if you can't punish a meatball down the middle of the plate once in awhile. I'm hoping that Houston can find just enough power to punish said meatball occasionally. I'd be quite happy if he's primarily a singles/doubles hitter who can effectively run the bases and draw enough walks to get on base at a .350-.360 clip. Because the defense is certainly real, and he can lift up the team and a pitcher consistently with the highlight reel plays he will surely make. This is why I think he was a reasonable gamble when and where we picked him. He was clearly the best glove in that draft. The amateur draft won't take place until later this spring/summer. The Twins will have had a great chance to observe and analyze where Houston is. Right now there are a couple college and high school SS that the Twins have their eye on. If Houston is showing real progress, might the Twins shift their priority to a CF or SP? Jenkins could very well be the guy to eventually take over for Buxton, but another speedy CF candidate couldn't hurt. And there could be a kid who takes a Paul Skenes step forward as a SP prospect. How Houston is playing at the time of the draft could have an impact on who the Twins select #3 overall. Or, it might not matter at all.
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I agree with the premise of Matthew's article. And I would go so far as to say there is no "telegraphing" left to do. All any team in the American League needs to do is look at the Twins current roster and calculate that the Twins are non-contenders. This team is projected to win 73 games. 80 is the high side and very unlikely. We will not contend in 2026. There will be a disrupted season in 2027. The only question is for how long. We know it will be contentious. The plan all along should have been to build with an eye toward 2028. Not trading Pablo prior to spring training was a major mistake. No hindsight is needed to arrive at that conclusion. We let Falvey go. Was he advocating for the tear down in opposition to Tom Pohlad's puffery that he either goes big or goes home? We now have our definition of Tom going big...signing Josh Bell and Victor Caratini. I'm underwhelmed. SOMEBODY is going to get hurt in someone's rotation. Heck, 75% of the Dodgers rotation is in a constant state of pain. We should be working the phones for trades involving Ryan, Larnach, Jeffers and possibly even Byron Buxton. I might even be willing to move Royce Lewis or Matt Wallner as well, this year or next. The Twins need to look completely different by the time the 2027 season ends. A bona fide major league SS is needed. A CF to replace Buxton if traded is needed. Younger, more athletic OF's are on the way with Walker Jenkins and Em-Rod. 1B is still a mess despite having about 5 guys who will play there this season. A major rebuild should ALWAYS have been the strategy. That it wasn't is yet another reason why the Pohlad's should be gone and a new ownership era begins. Once Glen Taylor decided to sell the T-Wolves the skies cleared, the sun shined, and a new era of T-Wolves basketball dawned. It's time for the same medicine for our baseball team.
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Ranking the Minnesota Twins Uniforms for 2026
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Showing my age here, but I miss the classic home white with navy pinstripes and blue numbers and TWINS trimmed in red. Basically the 1963-1971 home pinstripes. None of the 5 uniforms showed are bad. I just miss the classic, traditional look. They wore them during the Mauer-Morneau-Santana-Nathan era. -
Why the Twins Shouldn't Replace Pablo Lopez
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thank You Cody for a well written and thought out piece. I never thought the Twins would contend this year. Is the "Universe" possibly trying to make things as crystal clear to Tom Pohlad that 2026 is not going to be the year of a Twins resurgence? Losing Pablo for the season should be the proverbial tap on the shoulder for the organization that the full scale rebuild should commence...very soon. It's time to check in with these pitching needy teams to see what prospect capitol could be obtained for Joe Ryan. It's time to go with the Kids and find out what we have in the way of young SP. Bradley, SWR, Zebby, Abel, and behind them Prielipp, Rojas, and in a couple years Dasan Hill, Charley Soto etc... And if they'd go so far as to trade Joe Ryan, then include Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Larnach and probably Baily Ober if he's pitching decently up to the deadline. There is no sugarcoating how bleak this coming season is going to be with the almost guaranteed stoppage in 2027. It's time to embrace a complete overall of the roster and undertake the rebuild needed to make the Twins contenders, at the earliest, 2028 but probably 2029/2030. Pablo's season ending injury before he could have been traded for some good prospect capital should be a wake up call to the Twins organization. Stop deluding yourself. The fans understand the franchise is a literal "Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald." Come to your senses and do what you know needs to be done.- 39 replies
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- pablo lopez
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