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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. Miller is holding his own at the plate in Low-A at age 19. The triple slash may not look great, but the league is a hard core pitcher's league anyway. Miller's wRC+ 95 is right about league average and right where it has been all year. Much more important to me, Miller has clearly been working on his strikeout rate and made a massive improvement without taking fewer walks. His on base percentage has been great, near .350 all season. Since the All Star Break his walk vs. K rate looks way better and way more sustainable. BB% = 15.2% K% = 16.5% (down from 25.5% in the first half of the year) At age 19, there is plenty, and I mean PLENTY of time for his power to develop. I wouldn't expect Miller to be knocking at the MLB door prior to 2025.
  2. The Turbo Tubs? A name as bad as their uniforms, ugh. At least they're not the Amarillo Sod Poodles I guess. Aside from that, pretty nice start for Woods-Richardson as he stretches back out. Only 1 walk, and he didn't give up many hits with plenty of strikeouts. 78 pitches in 4 innings isn't good, but the 69% strike rate tells me there were probably a lot of pitches fouled off.
  3. Just like Fangraphs, I am predicting the White Sox win the division because they have a far more talented roster.
  4. What does Ryan, Ober, Winder, Smeltzer, Duran, Thielbar, Jax, Stashak, Alcala or Ryan have to do with the current state of the Twins' farm system? Is Thielbar going to be listed as a top prospect for Minnesota next year? We're not developing reliable starters. That's the issue. A whole bunch of middle relievers and a guy who the front office watched for 1 month before calling him up after a trade does not equal a successful development system. The current front office has been no more successful (arguably significantly worse) at developing pitchers than the previous regimes.
  5. Yeah... like I said. Handicapped by bad drafts, but the way Falvey drafts, he's looking for diamonds in the rough anyway. It feels like Falvey's front office should have been able to produce more than Terry Ryan's front office...
  6. Fangraphs may do a little re-jockeying top prospects mid-year, but most of what they have seems dependent on 2021 scouting reports. I expect a lot of movement (as there is every year) after the season's end. If Encarnacion-Strand continues to wallop pitchers through the end of the season with the Lookouts, his rank will probably rise. Fangraphs was pessimistic on him to begin with and a lot of their rankings have a huge personal bias.
  7. To be fair, Duran was a starter converted to reliever because he has so few innings. He wants to get back to starter. Ober, Winder and Graterol look to be good pitchers as well, but yes, probably all bullpen arms due to durability issues. If we're talking about development, I don't think the draft is the key issue because the current regime would get credit for developing talent they acquired from previous front offices and in trades (like Jax drafted in 2016 and Duran who was part of the Eduardo Escobar trade) so I don't see why 6 years isn't fair, though you'd have to concede the current front office would have been handicapped by bad drafts in say 2013-2016. Some of the top round pitching picks for the Twins from 2013-2016 who the current front office inherited. Not a great group, but you'd think the development team would be able to make some progress with some of them... 2013 Kohl Stewart 2013 Stephen Gonsalves 2014 Nick Burdi 2014 Sam Clay 2015 Tyler Jay 2015 Kyle Cody 2016 Griffin Jax 2016 Tom Hackimer 2016 Jordan Balazovic
  8. First inning was solid, after that, Gray struggled with control a bit and you can't be walking guys and putting yourself into 3-2 counts against a dangerous hitting and confident team on an obvious path to the playoffs like the Dodgers. They'll make pitchers pay.
  9. In my opinion, plan A is Royce Lewis as the starting shortstop next year with Jermaine Palacios as his backup. There's no more kid glove time for Lewis. He needs to play.
  10. Lewis was walking 3 weeks after surgery. The surgery was non-standard as they elected to insert a brace to reinforce the joint and Lewis has the procedure performed in Dallas. Not sure the name of the place.
  11. I went through the 40 man roster projection in the last couple days on a thread around here somewhere. I don't see any crunches.
  12. As soon as spring training starts up, they'll move to the 60 day IL and be removed from the 40 man roster. Side note: Lewis is an interesting case at this point. Apparently, his doctors have him on an aggressive return path of as quick as 10 months, which could see him on the field just a couple weeks into the start of next year. If his quick recovery continues, I don't think the Twins will put him on the 60 day IL.
  13. The Twins have a "good" team. I don't think they've been playing to their potential lately, but they game out of the gate outperforming. The team got better at the trade deadline, but they're not the best team in the division and there are some surprises in the American League this year. I'd say the Twins have a 50/50 shot at the post season right now. Maybe 30% to win the division, 20% for a Wildcard. I don't think it happens unless the rotation pitchers step up, though.
  14. This just a couple days after Baldelli gets tossed and makes the front page news for losing his mind during AND after the game.
  15. MLB's total revenues peaked at $10 billion. A salary floor of $200MM would be $6 billion in player salary (0.2B * 30 = 6B). Player salaries are about 50% of league expenditures so the league spent $5 billion in other costs. Even assuming the leagues expenses remain at $5 billion, that means $11 billion in expenditures vs. $10 billion in revenue or every single team loses $33MM annually. Yeah. That'll work out great.
  16. Maybe, but I'm guessing the front office is going to be looking to dump more salary based on the Twins probably losing money this year. Also, I'd wager it's far more likely the Twins decline their options and bring Archer or Bundy back on 1 year deals at $5-6MM or something like that.
  17. I'd like to see Canterino's "stuff" play for more than a handful of innings at AA or higher before I hop on the bandwagon.
  18. This was a bad start by Gray. When your starter gives up 4 runs (3 earned) and can't make it through 5 innings, you're not winning many games. If you expect the bullpen to go out there and pitch 4-1/3 innings giving up 0 runs, you're nuts. They'd be expected to give up at least 1 (2.07 ERA) and more likely 2 (4.14 ERA) over that span. This means the Twins would have needed to score 6-7 runs to win the game, reasonably. Gray had a couple starts in a row where he was lucky and the runners didn't cross the plate on him much, but that caught up to him a little.
  19. Archer has 0.4 fWAR this year. Not sure what's impressing you about him. I'm sure Archer is going to opt into his $10MM (mutual) option, though I'd hope the Twins do not. Bundy is a fair candidate for the Twins to bring back, but only if his results start mirroring his metrics. The long ball is destroying him in much the same way Tyler Duffey was experiencing. There aren't better $10MM options on the free agency market?
  20. Let me put on my surprised face. Just give me a minute... Nope. Can't even pretend to do it.
  21. Joe Ryan is a young guy and still trying to work out how his stuff plays against MLB batters who are also making adjustments. It's a game of chess right now, but Ryan's striking guys out well enough and showing solid enough control to stick. He is a fly ball pitcher so learning how to keep those balls in the park is going to be critical to his development. Ryan does not have the stuff to be a front line starter. His fastball is really deceptive, but his offspeed and breaking pitches haven't been effective this year. He's going to need to learn what works to set those bendy pitches up if he's going to reach his ceiling of a mid rotation arm. I feel confident saying he's at least got a spot in the rotation, though.
  22. There can also be some decisions based on what teams have roster space. Rookie Ball is unlimited, but the full season leagues are limited to 28-30 players and those MiLB teams are usually essentially at the limits. With the trade deadline in play and a lot of prospects being moved around, the Twins might keep people in Rookie Ball until they figure out where to move everybody around. Not so long ago, there were extended trade deadlines which might have impacted roster decisions longer into the season.
  23. I don't think Jomboy's video was posted, but plenty of comments/reactions on the site to a terrible overturn. Of course, MLB and their umpires pulled the oldest trick in the book when it comes to undermining themselves by fining Baldelli and insisting the overturn was correct. It's like Gary Bettman snuck into the MLB offices... https://www.yahoo.com/now/baldelli-fined-outburst-says-absolutely-122200290.html
  24. Yes. It matters. Blue Jays at Rogers Center or Mariners at Target Field. If that doesn't matter to you, then I guess you don't care if the Twins win. It's also not based on 1 game. It's based on the Twins slowly giving up ground, then being passed based on overall play since the end of May.
  25. Ryan is pitching just like he was, he's just not getting lucky. He's experiencing regression to the mean. Joe Ryan is not and has never been the kind of pitcher you'd rely upon to lead a rotation. Joe Ryan - April/June vs. July/Aug 3.20 ERA & 4.65 xFIP vs. 5.33 ERA & 4.61 xFIP He's literally the same pitcher.
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