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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think we're probably going to see more Fedko-like players as time passes. In large part due to the changes in the CBA where it's not so punishing to play MiLB anymore. Wages are still poor, but not nearly as tough as they were, and perks like team provided housing and improved benefits makes it possible for fringy prospects to keep working towards living the dream.
  2. bean5302
    Not adding a person to the 40 man roster is not manipulating service time. Only the 26 man roster counts for service time. Aside from that, you absolutely can run a team based on manipulating service time. Almost every team does this. You say you understand prospects develop differently, then say other players have been promoted so Jenkins should also be promoted? Seems like you don't believe what you're saying you believe. If Jenkins plays well enough to deserve the promotion, he should be promoted. Sure. He hasn't done that so far, but if he's actually good and looks ready when he comes back from the IL for enough games, I agree he should get his chance.
  3. bean5302
    He's out of options after this year. The Twins badly need to get a look at him and a feel for where he's at vs. MLB pitching. He's been in the system 8 years now, 6 years in the US minors. Top international prospects make it to the big show by age 21-22.
  4. bean5302
    No rush on Jenkins. He's not rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season finishes.
  5. bean5302
    Yeah, he's got one. No reason to release him, just send him to St. Paul.
  6. bean5302
    It was straight up stupid. Diving head first into first base after he's injured his thumbs sliding head first seemingly a dozen times. Flat out reckless and stupid. Comes with being 23 years old, I suppose, though I feel like most players are smart enough to learn how to slide after a major injury 1-2x. Emma's approach may not be viable at the MLB level. I'm certainly skeptical he won't get absolutely eaten up, but his inability to stay on the field has been par for the course for Twins prospects. I'm not bullish at all on him to be honest. I think he'll be AAAA. MLB pitchers will exploit his advanced understanding of the strike zone by throwing pitches in the zone that Emma can't hit (which are a lot of pitches based on that 30% K rate). Anyway, he needs to be in MLB ASAP once he completes his rehab assignment. Maybe he can make it back for mid August?
  7. bean5302
    Fedko is probably here to try and supplant the role the Twins wanted Austin Martin to be able to play. 4th outfielder who gets 50-80 starts a year or so depending on Buxton's health. Fedko's getting a "just in case" chance with the Twins. Gives them a chance to do a double-check before they write a player off. Maybe Fedko has something which translates well to MLB. We'll have to see!
  8. bean5302
    I didn't create fielding percentage. I didn't create DRS I didn't create OAA Ask the people who created the metrics used to evaluate players on what Kreidler needs to do in order to be an above average SS in MLB. Last I looked, apart from his rookie season, Kreidler has been an average or worse SS. OMG, Keaschall hit a home run! He's back! I didn't create xwOBA. I didn't create OBA. I didn't create wRC+. I didn't create Exit Velocity or any number of metrics which don't support Keaschall slowly getting better unless you narrow the sample size down to an irrelevant level. Show me a consistent 20 games or a month where he's steady better.
  9. bean5302
    My dead grandma could OPS .750 in the International League. It's not about the OPS. It's about comparing how players perform relative to their peers. Unless you think the AAA teams are better than MLB teams?
  10. bean5302
    Nice opportunity for Fedko, and I think the DFA of Arcia is a nice move for Arcia himself as well. I'd be a little surprised if he didn't get claimed as his bat isn't looking great, but it's not looking as bad as it was previously. He's a known quantity, and you could do worse for an injury replacement guy. I don't expect much out of Fedko, but it seems like the Twins are pretty concerned with Buxton and we don't honestly have a great CF alternative we can call up. Here's hoping Kyler proves me wrong!
  11. bean5302
    Low bar for outstanding play. The bar apparently starts at "below average" -1 DRS, -1 OAA with a .952 fielding percentage. Don't get me wrong, he's almost certainly going to be better than Brooks Lee, and that's been the bar recently, lol. Keaschall is struggling with everything, and I don't see the improvement you're seeing, but I don't think it's a bad thing the Twins are giving him a long leash. I feel like they've been too quick to demote players over the past few years rather than letting the players work though stuff.
  12. bean5302
    LOL, yes he will. His K rate would be 25%+ at the MLB level real fast. He was striking out at AAA 25.5% last year.
  13. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins is unlikely to be better at the plate than any Twins outfielder on the roster. Jenkins was barely holding his own at AAA. My guess is Jenkins looks a lot like a lesser version of Luke Keaschall right now.
  14. bean5302
    I've never been super bullish on Jenkins, but he has looked good the past couple years. I'm not sure he has enough game power to warrant a call up this year, assuming he can even get a decent sample size of plate appearances, which seems like a long shot given his constant IL assignments. He's 12th of 28 players aged 22 or younger in AAA this year by wRC+. He's got a lot of physical talent, but these constant injuries are going to rob him of that athleticism pretty quick. He needs a solid 300 PA in AAA before I'd call his number, and I think he's going to struggle to get there. As of right now, he'd be a well below average MLB hitter.
  15. bean5302
    Are you grabbing your tickets through the box office or resellers? I think the days of the extremely great deals on resellers is over. There are so few season ticket holders left there aren't a lot of tickets offered for sale. I'm seeing prices similar to the box office (I can certainly appreciate that as a former season ticket holder who used to lose their &^% on selling extra games I couldn't attend.) I feel like, in previous seasons, getting tickets at the box office at Target Field itself skipped a lot of fees. It's not skipping them anymore.
  16. bean5302
    I mean... in theory, haha. Every run a pitcher allows drastically decreases the chances a team will win the game. 4 runs allowed in 6 innings makes it very unlikely a team is going to win. That means your team needs to score 5 runs with 3 innings left for the bullpen to cover. Even a good bullpen would be expected to allow 1 run over 3 innings. So Twins would have been expected to need to score at least 6 to win. In general the team scoring the following number of runs' winning percentage. Score 0 = 0% chance Score 1 = 5% chance Score 2 = 10% chance Score 3 = 25% chance Score 4 = 45% chance Score 5 = 60% chance Score 6 = 80% chance That's just off my head. I did some analysis on that a few years ago. About what I remember. Anyway, that's why 5.0 innings and ERA of 3.99 or less is so much more valuable than QS. 6 innings 3 runs or less. If a pitcher goes out and allows 3 runs in 6 innings, there's a way lower chance to win the game vs. 5.0 innings and 2 runs.
  17. bean5302
    I did it for you a couple posts later, dude. It's not impossible. It would have been very difficult and the Twins may have needed to part ways with more assets to do it, but not impossible. Aside from that, Tom Pohlad made it clear what Falvey's orders were in December, not February. Falvey simply bumbled his way through another offseason long enough that even the actual owners were convinced he didn't have the skill set to build a winning team.
  18. bean5302
    Correct. There is no way Riley Quick makes it to MLB this year. I'm glad his numbers look good (in the low minors). Project those numbers at the MLB level and it doesn't look so good. Quick is not dominating. He's pitching well.
  19. bean5302
    I feel like most fans on this site don't have a good experience with what a rebuild actually looks like. Rebuilds are when you trade away your most valuable and highest cost assets to acquire prospects who won't be ready for a year or two, clear a ton of payroll to allow for the ability to extend those prospects and fill the gaps with free agents over the next 2-3 years. It's a long shot the team will be competitive for 1-2 years. The Twins have never run a payroll under $100MM since Falvey became the head of baseball operations. Every single other team in the AL Central has. $100MM is not rebuild for a mid market team. The White Sox bottomed out at $71MM in 2018. The Guardians bottomed out at $49MM in 2021. The Tigers bottomed out at $80MM in 2021. The Royals bottomed out at $89MM in 2021. The Twins bottomed out at $105MM this year. Buxton, Ryan, Lopez get moved in a rebuild. Bare minimum 2 of 3. Ryan probably gets moved. Jeffers probably gets moved. Assets with less than 2 years of control and increasing salary get moved. Payroll for the Twins would be dropping down into that $50-70MM range. There were no signs that was in Falzoll's plans. Ever.
  20. bean5302
    I was really hopeful for Matthews when he first came up, but his stuff isn't great so he needs to stay out of the middle/middle.
  21. bean5302
    There was no rebuild. Trading away rentals and a couple relievers while keeping the best players with the largest contracts is not a rebuild in progress. Pohlad wasn't in charge until mid December. Falvey had plenty of time to "rebuild" if that was going to happen.
  22. bean5302
    I just paid almost $5 for gas, thanks, Pohlads!!!! Tom Pohlad favored a bolder approach last fall. He's on record lamenting the fact he wasn't in charge earlier where he could have presumably fired Falvey sooner and hired a GM with a different philosophy. Here's what I did for Feb 4th.
  23. bean5302
    Ownership did understand this. Tom Pohlad told Derek Falvey he was going to be let go just a couple weeks after Tom was made a controlling owner. There are many articles talking about how nearly unprecedented Falvey's pink slip was. Tom favored a bolder, more aggressive approach to re-constructing the roster to win in 2026 and Falvey wasn't up to the task. Falvey's approach has been consistent (and highly unsuccessful).
  24. bean5302
    Not panicked that a pitcher I didn't expect would be good at the MLB level isn't good at the MLB level. Stuff+ really likes Morris' arsenal, but MLB hitters say otherwise. Batters aren't chasing Morris' stuff and their contact rates are high both outside and inside the strike zone. It's a weird mix of metrics.
  25. bean5302
    Getting accurate reads on prospect speed is tough. Guys who look fast might just have short strides or tall, awkward looking players might actually be far faster. Smooth outfielders just look faster. Infielders rarely get asked to go flat out for long distances so they get gauged on their time to 1B or just how they look. Scouting reports have Houston as an above average runner. Baseball America says he's a savvy base runner, but as you've surmised, catchers and pitchers in the lower minors aren't always skilled at controlling the run game. Still 19:1 ratio of stolen bases is impressive.
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