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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I read so many articles predicated upon rolling the same high floor low ceiling rosters back out. I don't see how Royce Lewis is a concern. Doesn't have a lot of trade value. Shouldn't be guaranteed a roster spot. Doesn't project as a major contributor. Yet, he's a major focus of Twins writing while other articles try to find ways the future of the team can be left off the roster. The Twins are indecisive with this incompetent front office. The team needs to sign probably 5 quality free agents (not 1.0 WAR full time guys) to raise the ceiling to 95+ wins. Not raise the floor to 70 wins. If Royce Lewis is a big part of the conversation, the season is already looking like a failure.
  2. bean5302
    If he is injured. If the Twins need to fire Zoll even more than they already do. Those are the two ways.
  3. bean5302
    That's great. That's your opinion. I don't know if this front office shares it or not. I typically view Keaschall as an utterly incompetent fielder; in fact, the worst fielding instincts I've ever seen at the MLB level. The Twins haven't done him any favors in development, though. Having players learn basics at the MLB level is a poor practice, but the Twins and defensive fundamentals are not well acquainted thanks to this front office's idiotic view on "defensive versatility" so it might be the only way. Martin was a good 2B the last time he played significantly there which was a couple years ago in AAA. He's not good enough to be an every day outfielder, but a league average-ish bat plays at 2B just fine. That's just my opinion. Again, no clue what this hair-brained front office thinks about it. 2B is not a need. Culepper, Lee and Lewis can also play there. Sorry the list of bone fide All Star 2B is short on this team with limited proven talent, but 2B is literally the deepest position pool the team has.
  4. bean5302
    I'm not worried about guys who shouldn't get more than 100 PA. No room on a team for non-optional players with super low ceilings. If the Twins bring back Kreidler, it should be on a MiLB deal.
  5. bean5302
    The assumption should be the draft pick loss no longer applies in the next CBA.
  6. bean5302
    Luis Arraez is best utilized at the position the Twins have the most depth in the entire team. Martin, Lee, Lewis, Clemens, Keaschall, and Culpepper could all play 2B depending on how the front office views 2027. Topping that off, we have Houston who could be knocking at the door mid next year or maybe even earlier in a perfect world. We don't need 2B. The Twins should be looking to solidify positions where there are legitimate question marks like OF, 1B, C, SP, BP and let the young talent play where it looks like they'll be good.
  7. bean5302
    Crawford's athleticism is gone. He went from a 60 grade runner in his early years to a 40 grade runner now (similar to Trevor Larnach in quickness and speed) and his arm has declined from below average for SS (say 50 grade-ish) to 40 (noodle) grade at this point. His strongest throw last year was 81.9mph where his average was 80.2mph. Compare that to Brooks Lee, who has an arm which is not suited to SS at 85.3mph and average 82.5mph. Crawford needs to hit the gym and training facilities like he's never hit them before. He's coming into his age 32 season, and he needs to add a lot of explosiveness without adding weight if he's going to be more valuable than Culpepper at SS or Clemens at 2B. I don't like Crawford as an addition at all.
  8. bean5302
    OAA doesn't value positioning. DRS does. Arraez has traditionally been solid by DRS and abysmal by OAA. Last year, he clearly made an adjustment to aim to exploit OAA at the cost of DRS. MLB players and evaluators have talked about how OAA rewards selfish play and how it's impacting the game since Fangraphs and some front offices have rushed to adopt it. OAA favors raw athleticism and individual efforts rather than effective positioning and team defense. Arraez doesn't have the raw athleticism needed to be a great OAA fielder so it comes down to poor positioning. Positioning yourself poorly to get at more balls (balls you shouldn't be playing at your position) increases your OAA value even though it hurts the team. That's why you see the dichotomy between Arraez's fielding metrics. 2023 Best Year by DRS +4 at 2B, Worst Year by OAA -11 2026 Worst Year by DRS -4 at 2B, Best Year by OAA +12 OAA isn't a great defensive metric, IMHO, though it is popular. It's being gamed and it's hurting team defense in general. Both Milwaukee and Tampa favor DRS over OAA. The bottom line is Arraez is a decent enough 2B. He's got a steady glove and good fundamentals. He's not athletic, but he's made up for that by positioning.
  9. bean5302
    Ryan Jeffers is a career wRC+ 111 hitter. He's been an "above average" hitter across his career. He's just not that valuable. The extra value his typical better than average hitting season brings to the table would be offset by the huge contract folks around here are predicting. Teams seem to disagree with defense not mattering as pretty lousy hitting catchers are continuously employed and used on a regular basis. Nobody ever tries to turn a Josh Bell into a catcher, but they're always happy to try and turn a player into a corner outfielder or DH or 1B.
  10. bean5302
    With the way the roster is constructed, brining back Arraez doesn't make sense. Twins fans are "extra" when it comes to obsession with players that had more than one good season here. Get in one great season or a couple good or 4 straight, and the fan base starts screaming for the Twins HoF. It's kind of embarrassing. Arraez will get a multi-year contract with the expectation he'll play 2B somewhere. Spotrac says 3yrs $54MM MLBTR predicts 3yrs $48MM. I think it's going to be higher than that, myself. Is Arraez going to be reliably better than other, young, cost controlled options the Twins have for 2B? Maybe, but maybe not. 2B is a spot the Twins have unlimited options since the team has forced numerous players around the diamond as they draw straws to see where they play. Most of the candidates are best suited to 2B. It's just not a need.
  11. bean5302
    I hate to do this to the fans who believe Jeffers is something special but... Even in the best year of his entire career, Jeffers produced 1/2 WAR over an average catcher. Jeffers is generally about a 2.0 WAR player. He's AVERAGE. "Best hitting" doesn't matter so much when he's not good defensively... at a defense-first position. Why would a team give up $10MM per year for 0.5 WAR? Why would a team give Jeffers some crazy 4 year contract when they could trade for a Shea Langeliers, who is better than Jeffers and cheaper, and by all the accounts of the inflated viewpoint of an average player around here whatever team signs Jeffers is already going to lose a high round draft pick. I guess this is a function of Twins fans rarely being treated to a decent player for more than a single year around here, but that's a common thing for other teams not to just have one year wonders. https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/york-yankees-trade-idea-offloads-232054392.html
  12. bean5302
    The roster spots are more valuable in other places. None of these prospects require protecting.
  13. bean5302
    Every player in baseball is available in a trade and Jeffers is no where near the best catcher in MLB. He's "average" for a starter
  14. bean5302
    I was talking about 2021-2022-2023-2024-2025-2026. ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K rate, BB rate, Line drive rate, hard hit rate, barrel rate, first pitch strike, zone rate, swinging strikes... it's all the same. He added an occasional sinker which traded improved his grounder rate, but it had no real impact on the gopher balls. Ryan is a 4 seamer/slider(sweeper) pitcher. Just like he always has been. His first couple years that was 80% of his pitches, it's 75% the last couple years. Ryan has experimented with different grips (slider -> "sweeper") and he dropped his arm angle to improve his breaking pitches and that gave him 2mph in velo as well. The basics of who he is has not changed.
  15. bean5302
    Except this hasn't been the case historically. Teams who want catching help will only overpay so much before changing their attention on the trade market where there are plenty of as good/better options for much cheaper than that.
  16. bean5302
    Yeah, that'd certainly throw a wrench into the competitiveness of the Twins all right.
  17. bean5302
    If the Twins are going to keep Jeffers, they'll have him signed in the next week during Jeffers' free look period. If it gets to the point where Jeffers declines the QO and pursues free agency, he's not going to be back. If Jeffers takes the QO, it's pretty clear the talking head estimates were wrong and the analytics based tools were close to market value.
  18. bean5302
    Joe Ryan was an MLB caliber pitcher when he arrived. His K rate, BB rate, advanced metrics, etc are all similar today vs his first season. He's changed his repertoire around and experimented a little, but I'm not on board with the assertion the Twins developed him.
  19. bean5302
    Front office and ownership accountability is virtually non-existent with this franchise. It'll be hard for Wallner to A) Find a team willing to give him an extended opportunity like Rooker got with the Athletics B) Get past any mental issues he might have which kept him from performing at the MLB level.
  20. bean5302
    I think the Twins made it clear this year that Wallner is not part of the clubs plans. Similarly, the team seems unwilling to part ways with him. He's out of options so he'll either be on the team all year or he'll be on somebody else's team. With 972 PA of wRC+ 131 production, the Twins bailed on him after 135 PA of wRC+ 57. Wallner raked in AAA, but clearly slumped hard to end the season. Not sure what to make of things other than Wallner is not in the plans.
  21. bean5302
    AFL is between A and A+ level, IMHO. DeBarge isn't really a prospect anymore. DeBarge is now 23 in his 3rd professional season as a high round college pick. If he couldn't rake against rusty A+ level opponents, it would be embarrassing. 78 plate appearances against fringe competition won't change his status, but it keeps him from being released at least.
  22. bean5302
    Joe Ryan was not developed by the Twins. He had 4 innings in AAA with this franchise.
  23. bean5302
    Gray has been a very good pitcher since he left Minnesota, and his last season in Boston actually looks more similar to his runner up Cy Young season in 2023 with the Twins than his two years with the Cardinals. Different strategies, different peripherals. I don't see any world the 37 year old Sonny Gray gets a 3 year contract, even if he has put the durability concerns behind him. Verlander couldn't even get a 3 year deal at 37. Scherzer got 3 years, but he was 36. Both of those guys are a substantial step up from Gray. In any case, I don't know. I think Gray will probably have to settle for a 1 year deal with high AAV, but... how high? I'm guessing upper $28MM range. He's not going to command much more than that at this point. A 2yr $40MM deal isn't out of the question, either. I don't have a clue what this team's direction is, except Zoll is still here so I'm certainly not optimistic.
  24. bean5302
    Mayo just put up 2.0 fWAR in 454 PA at age 24. He'll be expensive. That said, I guess we can look forward to at least 5 more fanposts begging for Mayo again this year.
  25. bean5302
    Then FIP isn't relevant and you should be using xERA or SIERA as the "good" metric. The issue is Tampa Bay outperformed their xERA by 0.40 as well. I prefer xFIP over FIP, but all the metrics have their flaws. If you want to outperform FIP, no problem, ditch the four seam and have every pitcher only throw sinkers. If FIP isn't relevant because it treats a hard line drive the same as a easy grounder to the 2B, then it's not a metric to be concerned about. That said, MLB basically wanted to use FIP to determine arbitration salaries a few years ago and they literally proposed using Fangraphs' fWAR as the formula base. Fangraphs' fWAR is based on FIP.
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