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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. The initial luxury tax of 20% has not been a significant impactor on team spending for 1-2 consecutive years, in my opinion. It's the 3rd year or the ability to constantly run well above the luxury tax ceiling which is maybe a tiny bit prohibitive for a few teams. According to Spotrac, 2019 - Red Sox (2.1MM or 0.9%), Cubs (7.4MM or 3.1%) and Yankees (6.4MM or 2.7%) exceeded the luxury tax and the amount their tax was in relation to payroll. 2021 - Dodgers (21MM or 8.0%), Phillies (0.9MM or 0.4%). In general only 3-5 teams are even within $10MM of the luxury tax ceiling right now, meaning the luxury tax doesn't seem to have any obvious impact on 25 of 30 MLB teams in any given season. In practice, the MLBPA's proposal is to eliminate the luxury tax entirely in every way shape and form. Only 1 team has ever exceeded $245MM (Dodgers in 2015 and 2021), and only a couple other times has a team been within $10MM of the $245MM proposed ceiling. $245MM is simply more than any team in baseball (other than the Dodgers) are willing to spend on payroll with or without the luxury tax. The MLBPA is utterly, and ludicrously, focused on the concept of a potential salary limiter of any type even an irrational one. It's tunnel vision to the nth degree and it's making them look like idiots. Guys like Max Scherzer BS all day about how the MLBPA is interested in making sure the young guys get theirs. It's clear the MLBPA's (and Max Scherzer's self-interest) focus is maximizing the veteran compensation at any cost. Btw, I can't blame Scherzer for looking out for #1, but I can call him hypocritical and a liar. I think the last owner's proposal is very good for an offer. In 2019, the full arbitration salary predictions from MLB Trade Rumors was $843MM. The owners are proposing (right now), a $1 billion dollar pool which would be a 19% increase from $843MM. It's based on the idea arbitration players have to earn their money with an independent statistic (fWAR), though I could see MLB later buying Fangraphs... If the MLBPA were to come back, agree with the luxury tax at a lower amount with all super 2s (arbitration after 2 years, 4 years of total arbitration), we'd have a deal. With the $100MM floor, the arbitration increases are absorbed by the lower payroll teams increased required spending and since the arbitration pool is capped, MLB doesn't care if there are more or less people in the pool.
  2. MLB changed their proposal from just plain a29.5 to 6 years or 29.5. Seemed like a big concession, but their original position was ludicrous. The MLBPA dropped their request for free agency changes altogether from their original request to trade to 6 years or 5 years and 29.5. Not sure what the true status is right now.
  3. Kenda Maeda gave a quote/interview in Tokyo a couple weeks ago. This year looks unlikely for him. https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220107/p2g/00m/0sp/057000c
  4. Because it appears to me the MLBPA isn't able to recognize cause and effect. This seems to be a reoccuring problem with a lot of people in our society in general. Like government programs, be it health benefits for veterans or food shelves. Everybody likes the program, but nobody wants to pay for it... and somebody has to pay for it. MLBPA doesn't recognize that Max Scherzer or Trea Turner needs to pay for it. Then again, your apparent strawman here is techncially correct here as the MLBPA would certainly fight for a mutually destructive share of the revenue.
  5. Honestly, the "bonus pool" is in addition to pre-arbitration, minimum, salary increases. The MLBPA proposal could potentially have a 2nd year player who had a nice rookie campaign increase from $775k to $4.25MM before arbitration even began, essentially septupling current compensation is a pretty big ask. Unless I'm misunderstanding. The owner's response would increase that same player from $600k to potentially $1MM or so. In any case, it feels like a bit of posturing right now.
  6. This is DoA. The MLBPA has publicly agreed they're getting a 50/50 split already and they're happy with the owners' numbers. The revenue split is not an issue of contention right now.
  7. So what if teams eat bad contracts and accept prospects and draft picks (competitive balance) to fill out their payroll? It accomplishes the rebuild faster, creates more opportunity for the veteran players, increases total spending and there's a chance the reclaimation/bad contract project has a rebound year and helps competitive play. I read it as a hard floor so far.
  8. Neither Sands nor Woods-Richardson are bullpen candidates right now. Chase Petty and Jordan Balazovic are much more likely to shift to the bullpen than Sands or Woods-Richardson in my opinion, not that I'd label either one of those guys as "destined for the bullpen."
  9. With Steer being a 2B/3B and his bat being what I would call "adequate" in AA at age 23, I'm not convinced he's not a MiLB depth. I don't know as I'd rank Steer above Palacios.
  10. No. Celestino's speed is probably a 50-60 tool. He's just fast enough to be an effective center fielder, not a great one. I don't know where the expectation Celestino will be a below average hitter is coming from. He was 22 last year and had no time in AAA before the Twins threw him to the wolves at the MLB level. Celestino rebounded from his meager 62 plate appearance MLB struggles to OPS .827 at AAA at age 22. Writing off his bat as below average is very premature.
  11. There have been a lot of topics on the subject, but it might be hard to know what was proposed pre-lockout and where there's been give (if any) in the negotiations we know about... or at least I know about based on what sources are reporting. I put together some quick reference worksheet to track it. Green = moved towards owners. Blue = moved towards players. Red = moved further away. Pre-Lockout MLB MLBPA Luxury Tax Ceiling ($210MM in 2021) $180MM $245MM Luxury Tax 1/2/3yrs (20%/30%/50% in 2021) 25%/30%/50% Current Luxury Tax Penalty 1 ($230MM +12.5%) Same Current Luxury Tax Penalty 2 ($250MM +42.5-45.0%) Same Current & Loss of 10 positions in 1st or 2nd round Same Eliminate Competitive Balance with Qual. Offer Eliminate N/A Revenue Sharing (Pooled + Lux Tax in 2021) Increase* Decrease* Salary Floor $100MM N/A Draft (Worst draft 1st, best draft last) Lottery top 3 picks Lottery top 8 picks International Draft (None in 2021) Yes Current Free Agency (6yrs 2021) age 29.5 5yrs & 29.5 or 6yrs Arbitration Year Start (2-3yrs in 2021) 3yrs 2yrs Arbitration Performance Calc Career WAR-based** Current Arbitration Compensation $1 billion Pooled** Current Arbitration Opt-Out (Sign before Arb) No Current Pre-Arb Salaries (essentially league min.) Pooled*** Pooled (higher)*** Minimum Salary $570k in 2021) $570k N/A Postseason (10 teams in 2021) 14 teams 12 teams NL Designated Hitter w 14 team playoffs Yes *MLB is proposing the current revenue sharing pool, but increase luxury taxes collected which would fund the pool further, MLBPA is proposing a decrease of the revenue sharing pool by $100MM and reduce the luxury taxes which increase the pool. **Career (fWAR) weighted towards recent years. This suggests player salaries could decline dramatically after a poor year or if the player has a great year before the first year of arbitration, their rookie or 2nd year struggles might reduce their salary. ***Pooled means all MLB gets together and determines the entire pool of arbitration money available. Money would then be allocated to players based on performance. Current MLB MLBPA Luxury Tax Ceiling ($210MM in 2021) $214-220MM $245MM Luxury Tax 1/2/3yrs (20%/30%/50% in 2021) 25%/30%/50% Current Luxury Tax Penalty 1 ($230MM +12.5%) Same Current Luxury Tax Penalty 2 ($250MM +42.5-45.0%) Same Current & Loss of 10 positions in 1st or 2nd round Same Eliminate Competitive Balance with Qual. Offer Eliminate N/A Revenue Sharing (Pooled + Lux Tax in 2021) Increase* Decrease* Salary Floor $100MM N/A Draft (Worst draft 1st, best draft last) Lottery top 3 picks Lottery with market size Draft Bonus (None in 2021) No Service Time Manip. N/A International Draft (None in 2021) Yes Current Free Agency (6yrs 2021) age 29.5 or 6yrs Current Service Time Bonus for Awards (None in 2021) Yes Arbitration Year Start (2-3yrs in 2021) 3yrs 2yrs Arbitration Performance Calc Career WAR-based** Current Arbitration Compensation $1 billion Pooled** Current Arbitration Opt-Out (Sign before Arb) No Current Pre-Arb Salaries (essentially league min.) Pooled*** Pooled (higher)*** Minimum Salary $570k in 2021) $600k/$650k/$700k $775k -> $875k Postseason (10 teams in 2021) 14 teams 12 teams NL Designated Hitter w 14 team playoffs Yes *MLB is proposing the current revenue sharing pool, but increase luxury taxes collected which would fund the pool further, MLBPA is proposing a decrease of the revenue sharing pool by $70MM and reduce the luxury taxes which increase the pool. **Career (fWAR) weighted towards recent years. This suggests player salaries could decline dramatically after a poor year or if the player has a great year before the first year of arbitration, their rookie or 2nd year struggles might reduce their salary. ***Pooled means all MLB gets together and determines the entire pool of arbitration money available. Money would then be allocated to players based on performance.
  12. Notably, the Twins ranked 20th of 30 teams in UZR in 2019 where they ranked DEAD LAST at shortstop by 6.7 runs. Polanco's metrics looked great at shortstop in the shortened 2020 when his fielding percentage was dramatically higher than any other time in his career. The Twins also deploy a far higher shift rate than average teams which inflates defensive value in many metrics meaning players like Polanco get extra credit for plays Brent Rooker could make at shortstop. Polanco is poor at shortstop, and that's a well established thing. It's also known by the Twins, which is why they mercifully ended the experiment and moved him to 2B last year. The only possible argument for Polanco at shortstop is "defense doesn't matter." The only reason I could potentially accept defense not mattering is it hasn't mattered as much over the past few years because of the increase of 3 true outcome plate appearances and aggressive shifting; however, MLB owners are actively pushing rules changes which would challenge the 3 outcome hitter dominance and there's certainly grumbling about the shift. Even then, the argument goes together with "I don't care if prospects get playing time" which I would only accept if the Twins were legitimately eyeing competitive play next year (and I see no signs they are.)
  13. Two division titles are proof that a team can technically succeed in by far the weakest division in baseball with Polanco dragging them down at shortstop if they have enough talent to overcome Polanco's limitations. The single year in Polanco's entire career where he was good enough to earn a starting shortstop job was 2019. That year, he put together an All Star worthy 4.1 fWAR. He's never produced more than 1.6 fWAR in another season at shortstop. That's well below average and considering his lack of physical talent when it comes to his arm, he's certainly worse at shortstop than 2nd base. Second base is worth +2.5 positional runs. Shortstop is worth +7.5. I'd be more than willing to bet Polanco's physical limitations more than makes up for the positional value at shortstop. All that aside, the Twins are not likely to compete this coming year. With Falvey already talking about starting Austin Martin at shortstop, along with other options like Gordon, Palacios and Arraez, there is no need to shift around one of the most important and tenured players on the Twins just to fill holes as if he's some sort of utility player anyway.
  14. ...and they finished under .500 with prime Bert Blyleven, Rod Carew and Harmon Killebrew in 1971. Polanco cannot cover shortstop effectively and the Twins have several years of proof of that. He has to rush to make plays by being aggressive in the hopes to cover up for his lack of arm strength. While his results at 2B weren't great last year (again with the rock glove) there is at least the hope he can stop rushing and be smoother at a position he has the physical skills to play.
  15. All you have to do is look at Griffen Jax's peripherals to know luck got him through the first innings, not skill. First time through the order his ERA is 3.41, but his FIP is 5.10 and xFIP was 5.36.
  16. This article is stupid. Polanco is not and has never been a shortstop. Even with everything Polanco has done to improve his game at a position he is incapable of covering, he's still a very poor shortstop. No shortstop in the past 20 years has a lower UZR/150 with the equivalent of 3 years at the position. Polanco stands alone as the worst starting shortstop in the past 20 years. Why not just put Miguel Sano at shortstop?
  17. Other than the Seattle Mariners, I think every single team in MLB has qualified for the playoffs in the past 8 years and a vast majority in the past 5. Atlanta ($127MM) vs. Houston ($171MM) Los Angeles ($286MM) vs. Tampa Bay ($78MM) Washington ($162MM) vs. Houston ($160MM) Los Angeles ($186MM) vs. Boston ($236MM) Los Angeles ($242MM) vs. Houston ($124MM) Chicago ($117MM) vs. Cleveland ($86MM) New York ($101MM) vs. Kansas City ($114MM) San Francisco ($154MM) vs. Kansas City ($92MM) St. Louis ($115MM) vs. Boston ($151MM) San Francisco ($118MM) vs. Detroit ($132MM) Over the past 10 years, the median opening day payroll (from Stevetheump.com) for teams in the World Series is $130MM.
  18. Puckett didn't win any championships. The teams Puckett played on won those championships.
  19. It's all up to the owners to make proposals I see. Honestly, there appear to be two sides for fans to take. 1) I don't like businesspeople with lots of money because I don't have lots of money. Therefore, wealthy businesspeople are evil and everything they do is bad. They have infinite money because they have a lot more than me and therefore, they shouldn't try to effectively run businesses. They should just do whatever players want! 2) The MLBPA proposals undermine the competitive balance of the sport, don't make any economic sense or accomplish the goals they've laid out and would result in the game being less entertaining. Their proposals are unreasonable and will damage MLB if owners accepted them.
  20. The $100MM floor is to eliminate the tank/rebuild cycle. Tank/rebuild is viable method for teams, but it's not viable for the sport as a whole. $100MM is not too much for what MLB considers to be the minimal viable market and the floor would be used to push new stadiums, new ownership or moving franchises like Pittsburgh, Oakland and Tampa Bay. Not to mention the teams who do not engage in the tank/rebuild method are sick and tired of financing the teams who do run unacceptably low payrolls. The AL Central is as small market as it gets overall. Here are the max opening day payrolls by team. Detroit = $200MM (2017) Kansas City = $143MM (2017) Cleveland = $135MM (2018) Chicago = $129MM (2021) Minnesota = $129MM (2018)
  21. I don't even need to read the article. This one isn't remotely close. Rod Carew.
  22. It wouldn't impact the minors. Since MLB eliminated a bunch of minor league teams in the restructuring, it would be easy to just promote players up a level and backfill. There's plenty of talent to fill out another rookie league.
  23. To be frank, I consider the Twins Hall of Fame to be pretty embarrassing. It shows how pathetic the ownership of this franchise has been. Basically anybody with more than 3 years on the team is a shoe-in. The number of truly great Twins players is pretty short.
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