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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. The difference between fans and the front office when it comes to roster construction is night and day. The front office gets paid to retain talent as it's one of their most important jobs. The roster crunch was a function of the front office itself, and losing Baddoo and Wells has been a big failure. Both Baddoo and Wells look like MLB caliber players right now and both have a chance to take another major step forward. I understand why Falvey decided to gamble by leaving both of those players off the 40 man, but I'm not the one getting paid big money to manage the roster. Having Wells and Baddoo perform well enough over the course of a lost year isn't good, but it's not the end of the world. The back breaker is if the players take major steps forward, and both players have certainly flashed the stuff to do it.
  2. We're talking about baseball 3rd strikes, not the pick up lines you were using in college. With gems like "Hey, do you like the internet?" or "Your three friends turned me down already so I'll settle for your number, I guess" or "I know we just met, but do you want to meet my parents over there? They're my ride home!" it's no wonder you whiffed so frequently...
  3. Looks like the Twins will get to face off against Berrios tomorrow. It should be interesting to see if he's nervous or in the mood to show the Twins how badly they messed up. Toronto looks to have made some pretty good decisions going in big for the playoff run this year. They've got a +175 run differential right now which is good for 2nd best in the AL behind Houston so I'm glad to see them pushing for the playoffs. It's a bummer, but the chances the Athletics or Mariners can bump the Red Sox and Yankees entirely out of the playoffs looks slim since neither of them have head to head matchups in the AL East remaining. The Blue Jays play the Yankees 3 games and the Red Sox and Yankees have one 3 game series in Boston left against each other.
  4. It's not that nobody on the list is productive, it's just that Sano is 12% worse than the next player on the list. Eventually, it gets so far out of proportion that a strikeout rate can't be overcome in terms of value. Sano is going to be on the Twins next year. His salary, remaining option buyout, inability to add defensive value in the field and status as an easy out when teams need that out (negative WPA) make him a liability. Sano is prone to hot/cold so a really rough month isn't unexpected, it's just part of Sano's game. I think he is working diligently on his strikeout rate, and I think he got a taste that his career in MLB is in its twilight if he doesn't make some changes hit him this year when he was benched. Time will tell. He's got a year left to prove he can overcome all the liabilities and stop the decline. He won't manage a single WAR this year and his WPA will finish in the negatives. It'd be great for the Twins, and Sano, if he can make the adjustments necessary.
  5. Why do you feel that way? It's possible you may be right, there just isn't any data I can point to which suggests he's declined much physically since his early years in the big show.
  6. Nice story for Maggi. Maybe it'll get him a little more exposure and get him a few plate appearances even next year?
  7. Rtot is pretty rough these days. It doesn't account for defensive shifts so it can dramatically skew fielding metrics because positions often get far more "chances" to field balls. I prefer using UZR... where Simmons is a below average shortstop because of his poor error rate this year.
  8. I wonder if the Injury Gods mail holiday cards out? Like, does Buxton get the full package? New Years, Valentine's Day, etc? "Thinking of you!" haha
  9. Trade Donaldson, Arraez, Buxton for front line pitching. Sign Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar. CF - Celestino 2B - Polanco 1B - Kirilloff DH - Sano LF - Marte C - Garver SS - Escobar RF - Kepler 3B - Miranda
  10. The numbers have consistently shown Escobar to be an average fielding shortstop. His sprint speed hasn't changed, his 90 foot times haven't changed, his arm is still strong and his lateral movement is still good enough. There's no reason for me to believe he couldn't play SS at a similar level to where he was a few years ago. As a career 2.4 UZR/150 shortstop, even if Escobar declined a bit, he'd still be a massive improvement over somebody like Polanco and likely just as good as Simmons' -2.2 UZR/150 performance this year as well. Ultimately, Escobar was an All Star this year at 3B and he's been productive at the hot corner, which is the position he was signed to play. The Diamondbacks had a GG, team built, 4 WAR shortstop (Ahmed). The Brewers have an All Star caliber shortstop (Adames) and a young, team controlled light hitting utility player (Urias) who's bat plays the best at shortstop. They don't need Escobar to move to SS to cover the position, and honestly, I can't fathom a reason why the Brewers would want to prove Escobar can play SS. In regard to the Twins, they mishandled Escobar since they got him. The played Florimon over Escobar, then Santana. By the time Polanco came along, Escobar was used primarily as a super utility player and Polanco's arm was already over-taxed at SS. Escobar stayed at 3B because Polanco couldn't handle it.
  11. Honestly, if the Twins want a cheap, relatively short contract with a player who has utility and the arm to play SS, they should sign Eduardo Escobar and put him back at SS. His sprint speed and jump all look good enough to play SS adequately and he has the arm strength for it. He turns 33 in January next year and I expect a 2-3 year contract will get him at a price around where he's currently being paid. Escobar playing 3B has more to do with teams he's played at not needing a SS than Escobar being unable to handle the position.
  12. Martin doesn't have the range or the arm to be be a good MLB stortstop. That's what's widely reported. It's not the members who are making the determination out of thin air, but opinions based on many scouting reports. Based on his physical skillset, he's probably best as a second baseman; however, I expect the Twins are working diligently to identify any mechanics they can change which might help him gain another mph or two on his throws or a way to improve his jump. They'll need to find something if he's going to be at SS/CF. In regard to Lewis, he does have the range and arm for shortstop. It remains to be seen if he has the glove for it or if he can hit well enough to justify a 26 man roster spot on an MLB team. His last competitive professional play at shorstop was awfully rough with a consistently poor error rate across multiple levels and years from 2017-2019. His defense is secondary though. There are major issues with his swing, including an enormous and early leg kick which dramatically complicates his timing at the plate. Lewis not only has to time the pitch, but he also must adjust to the timing of the pitcher's windup. Lewis has outstanding physical abilities (assuming he returns from surgery at 100%) and by all accounts, he has a fantastic attitude and work ethic. He's a guy everybody wants to see succeed, but the numbers keep staring back suggesting there's a problem.
  13. Twins won. Jake Cave was just good enough to start in CF in 2018-2019. Since the Twins had Buxton, Cave was relegated to 4th outfielder to which he was better suited, but he was a good everyday player in the long stints of Buxton's injuries. Gil will not stay in an MLB rotation without a legit 3rd pitch and it's pretty questionable one develops for him. He was rocking a 4.66/4.47 ERA/FIP at AAA before joining the Yankees and his 5.4 BB/9, 1.28 WHIP, 3.97 FIP and 4.76 xFIP suggest Gil is due to get pasted a few more times as things balance out. Ultimately, he's going to be a bullpen arm who is getting his first appearance 3 years after Cave was already producing value for the Twins. Will Gil turn into a closer? Probably not. He just doesn't have the control for it and if past results are to be relied upon, Gil is going to have to sacrifice some of his velocity or movement to get his control to acceptable levels meaning he's likely destined for middle relief where he may rack up 0.5 WAR per season. It'll take a long time to make up the ground Cave put on him in WAR vs. WAR, let alone the net present value of that WAR.
  14. bean5302

    Saddest sports city

    The WNBA draw similar numbers to minor league baseball teams per game and they only have 30 games a year. Overall attendance and interest in the WNBA excludes it from being generally considered part of the major sports discussion. Essentially, nobody outside of Hennepin and Ramsey county cares about the Lynx enough to even know where they play so using a WNBA team as a source of state pride in a discussion will get you laughed at in 99% of cases. Even using a dramatically more popular MLS team will probably get an eye roll and chuckle. Conversely, a lot of people would recognize the name Floyd Mayweather and would be interested in watching a bout with him or some other boxer who isn't in the heavyweight division.
  15. It's not just fans who believe the Twins' front office appeared to have no plan; analysts are on record leading up to the trade deadline speculating the very same thing. The front offices moves made during the trade period didn't make sense because they didn't follow what an analyst would expect based on a clear plan. Rebuild? Short retool? Still committed to 2022? What black hole spots in the roster could the Twins potentially fill internally? None of those questions were being answered. I don't care. They don't absolutely need a plan. Maybe they have one now? Like I said, if they do, there isn't much I'd expect to see at this time of year which would give clues to their intent, but the offseason moves will dictate a lot. I'm not on record saying Falvey should be let go and I've also seen very little of that on the site. I don't think his termination is justified right now. It would be nice if people stopped trying to paint any and all criticism of Falvey as calls for his termination, though. Guess that's just a sign of the ages. Everything has to be polarized.
  16. I'd rather steer clear of Pineda, but I think the Twins bring him back.
  17. I'd actually like to point out 2 things. 1) I've said multiple times the front office doesn't know what it's doing right now. I believe that to be accurate, but it refers to a specific plan of action. In July and August, I don't think they had a plan A/B/C going in to 2022. I don't know what their current plan is, either, but it's not like there are a lot of new bread crumbs at this time of the year so no biggie. I think having a plan is important, but that's just my philosophy. I don't think a determination can be made on Falvey's performance before the end of next year. 2) Yes. Injuries can be on the front office. The front office is paid for performance, not excuses. You draft injury prone pitchers or players, you get dinged for it. It's like the old school sick days at work. You're allowed up to "x" and after that, your boss starts noticing. Falvey clearly focuses heavily on velocity and finding every last mph the Twins can. The data and research supporting a correlation between arm injuries and higher velocity is becoming more concrete. That's on the front office. If their methodology is behind a larger than normal amount of arm injuries, then the arm injuries are on the front office, not random luck. I'm also not saying the Twins have an abormal amount of arm injuries in the past few years. I don't know enough about the rest of the league to say.
  18. I'm not remotely upset. I'm saying those are the guys who should be used to judge Falvey's drafts. I think the verdict will be in on many of them next year. It's not like players need to play at the MLB level for them to be considered busts. If Lewis plays at A+/AA next year with a .600 OPS, he'll be judged as a bust. If Cavaco has another year in 2022 like he's had this year, he'll be written off as a bust. If Larnach can't find his bat at AAA, he'll be written off as a bust. If Sabato can't figure out how to stop striking out at a 40% clip in the low minors next year, he'll be written off as a bust. Baseball drafts are a crap shoot one player at a time, not multiple consecutive draft classes at a time.
  19. I wonder how many times this conversation has made its trip in a cirle on the merry-go-round? The 2016 team underperformed its pythagorean by 7 games. The 2017 team outperformed its pythagorean by 2 games and in a far weaker division. The Tigers and Royals were much better in 2016 and were fully committed to rebuild in 2017. Falvey inherited a team with a good core in what was the weakest division in baseball by a mile. He made no changes which would make an immediate major impact on the team for 2017 and failed to add the pitching the Twins needed to advance in the playoffs year after year until the competitive window for this team looks to have slammed shut. So what? The teams were competitive and that, I believe, is the goal of ownership. The issue for which Falvey will be judged is his drafting, player development and major free agency failures. If guys like Winder and Ober work out next year, it'll go a long way to solidifying the front office's ability to develop pitching. In regard to the draft, the guys I would imagine Pohlad will look at are the round 1-3 picks. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Leach, Enlow, Rooker, Canterino, Wallner, Sabato, Soularie, Steer and Jeffers. There's not much to like from that group. None of them are successful MLB players right now and guys like Lewis, Cavaco, Enlow, Rooker and Larnach need to prove something in the next year or be deemed failed prospects. If none of those guys step up, I expect Falvey gets shown the door.
  20. Ryan is pitching really well and I think he'll be a solid #4-5 starter with that excellent fastball. I don't think 2 starts is enough to decide pretty much every scout and the Tampa Bay Rays organization misjudged Ryan's stuff. Andrew Albers' first two starts back in 2013 8.1 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 2 Ks 9.0 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 2 Ks (a complete game shutout)
  21. From MLB.com... 1.327 Remember that “Slam Diego” storyline built off the Padres’ unprecedented success with the bases loaded last season? Well, this is the opposite of that. This is the Twins’ opponent OPS with the bases loaded. Yes, this would be a new record, surpassing the mark set by the 2015 Tigers (1.215). But what makes this even more incredible is that the 2020 Twins pitching staff had a .404 opponent OPS with the bases loaded -- the fifth-best mark all-time (albeit in a shortened season). At least the Twins have company, because the Nationals’ pitching staff (1.099 through Wednesday) is on pace to set the all-time NL mark. https://www.mlb.com/news/bonkers-stats-from-2021-season
  22. Dobnak is certainly sketchy from an expected reliabilty level at this point. Rough couple seasons from him.
  23. Berrios pitched another gem tonight against the Yankees helping Toronto move to 0.5 games back of the Wild Card spot. Even though Berrios had a couple rough starts in there, I doubt Blue Jays fans have any complaint should Toronto make the playoffs beyond the Wild Card game.
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