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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Arcia won't clear waivers if he's DFA'd, but he looks cooked to me. He's simply too indecisive at the plate. He needs to swing hard more often. Gray and Kreidler both have options. Personally, I don't buy the narrative either one of them is a good utility fielder. Of those two, Kreidler is the most valuable IMHO.
  2. bean5302
    I think my topic on this was more accurate (subject line wise), though this thread could be saved by changing it from "lottery ticket" to "$1 scratch off ticket"
  3. bean5302
    This team is playing about how most people expected them to play. The hot start was fun, but the players the Twins needed to lead weren't able to lead performance-wise. I think there are plenty of bright spots still. Taj Bradley may have struggled recently, but there was some sustained success there. Mick Abel and Connor Prielipp have both looked like they might stick long term in a rotation as well. Not a ton past that point, though, heh.
  4. bean5302
    Let me help you with that. It's called optimism; a bright spot for Twins fans. Seems like Lewis playing well offends you? Bummer.
  5. bean5302
    Good. He might be able to single handedly prevent the Tigers from making the playoffs.
  6. bean5302
    I thought the biggest reasons were allocating a large percentage of the expendable income to guys like Joey Gallo, Manny Margot, Josh Bell, the the gutting of entire areas of the roster without rebuilding it (Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, Coulombe, etc) and squandering trade value by misreading the market (Kepler x2, Polanco, etc).
  7. bean5302
    Which is a totally worthless stat since not all players in high A are prospects. There's plenty of MiLB roster filler down there. Of 240 pitchers with 20+ innings 49 (20%) are age 25+. These are non-prospects 49 (20%) are age 24. These are also borderline non-prospects. If you're in High A and you're over 23, you're basically roster filler or long shot guys.
  8. bean5302
    He played 7 games before he was injured. After that, his August was mostly luck with an xwOBA 60pts higher than expected (which was already below average) but then came September when pitchers stopped throwing him meatball challenge pitches. After that, Keaschall's been consistently very poor at the plate. It's not like the Twins have some amazing 2B lined up, but Keaschall isn't playing well.
  9. bean5302
    I don't think Keaschall is going to "reset." I think he needs to learn how to hit in a way which will allow him to be successful against MLB (and AAA) caliber pitching. I think he'll struggle in AAA right now.
  10. bean5302
    I don't know as I'm worried about Hill. The complete inability to throw strikes is a career ending issue, but I'd be assuming it's mechanical. I'd be a lot more worried about the job of Hunter Townsend (Cedar Rapids' pitching coach) if he's unable to address this kind of problem.
  11. bean5302
    Keaschall wasn't good in May, either, he was just getting lucky. Based on the comments, we've got another Brooks Lee fan-fest going. Can't hit, can't field, we love him! Apr xwOBA .268 (very poor) May xwOBA .293 (very poor)
  12. bean5302
    Regression to the mean is generally for expected vs. actual results. Keaschall didn't experience regression in September, his expected and actual outputs were both very poor. Check again. He's now at -4 DRS (16th of 19), -2 FRV (tied for 57-62nd of 66), -3 OAA. (tied for 31-33rd of 36). Keaschall is unquestionably one of the worst fielding 2B in baseball. Adding value on the base paths? Baseball Savant agrees with a +3 runs score. He's a replacement level player right now.
  13. bean5302
    He certainly didn't start slow this year, but he cooled off quick. He's been league average at the plate for all three years prior to joining the Twins. For those not familiar, use a scale about like .280-.304 Very Poor .305-.315 Poor .316-.335 Average .336-.360 Great .361-.400+ Elite First vs. Second Half, wOBA / xwOBA, 2023 - .308 / .346 vs. .341 / .339 2024 - .283 / .293 vs. .383 / .349 2025 - .299 / .331 vs. .362 / .403 2026 - .290 / .301 Bell could rebound like he did in 2024, but he's been bad at the plate. It'd be unreasonable to think he'd be worth anything at the trade deadline other than salary relief. I don't know as there's much track record to support the "notorious slow start" type of label. I think there's a high degree of likelihood the player who hasn't generated more than replacement value in the previous 3 years and is struggling big time right now is just done. Do the Twins really HAVE to play Bell? They could just release him. He's not helping, he's unlikely to help them, and he's not going to be worth anything at the deadline. No other team in baseball signs Bell to the contract the Twins gave him. Nobody. We're not getting out from under it.
  14. bean5302
    Keaschall was scouted as a poor fielder from the time he was drafted all through his time in the minors. He's a bad fielder working to become a passable one. More concerning to me is not his "inconsistent" bat, it's his consistently poor bat. He's not remotely close to an MLB caliber player right now. He should be in AAA. Over his last 334 PA (September last year through today) .256/.326/.323 OPS .659, ISO .067, wRC+ 84. His wOBA .294, xwOBA .287.
  15. bean5302
    Taj's stuff generates some pretty high whiff rates on stuff inside and outside the zone so I wouldn't say he doesn't generate enough chase. There's just a limit to how far outside the zone you can be where any MLB caliber hitter is going to swing at all. It's really that. He's too wild. Can't see adding pitches to a guy's arsenal as a good idea when he's already struggling to gain command over his current stuff.
  16. bean5302
    The options are meaningless for guys nobody wants. Dobnak didn't have options and we shuttled him all the time.
  17. bean5302
    A-Ball is also filled with International prospects, and high school draft picks working on new approaches. You'd expect experienced top league College players to be better in terms of results (not necessarily talent). Polish gets you a long ways in the low minors.
  18. bean5302
    Worth noting Quick's numbers for A+ look awfully similar to his numbers at Bama.
  19. bean5302
    I'm not really seeing a lot of change. His fastball grades out as pretty elite and he's leaning on it very heavily. He's getting ahead in the count and that's paying dividends. 51% Fastball, 31% Sweeper. Just enough curve and sinker to keep hitters honest.
  20. bean5302
    I'm glad Riley Quick is back facing competition similar to what he faced when he was with Alabama in the SEC. No reason other than conditioning or evaluation to have Quick start off in Ft. Myers in the first place.
  21. bean5302
    Except Escobar had a few years of starer worthy performances under his belt so the history supported him. Clemens is probably most valuable as a 2B to somebody.
  22. bean5302
    I truly, really, don't get this one. I'd be willing to bet money Mike Hazen thought he was getting a prank call from Minnesota. "Hello, Mike Hazen. Wait... what? Who? Oh, you want him? As Chris Carter would say... Come on, man! Wait, no. Seriously? Yeah... let's work out a trade. Whatever Toronto gave you for SWR. A case of Gatorade and a box of Snickers bars? Done! Pleasure doing business with you, Jeremy. Don't listen to all that bad stuff people say about you!"
  23. bean5302
    Falzoll struck while the iron was hot after forwarding the case of Gatorade and box of Snickers bars acquired by moving Simeon Woods Richardson to Toronto. The package was forwarded to Arizona along for a soft-tossing righty named Taylor Rashi who the Diamondbacks had just DFA'd. Rashi made his debut for a handful of innings last year at age 29, and while his K rate was impressive, it seemed more luck based than skill. He's been hit hard this year, again in a very SSS, and he walks quite few batters which is a little unexpected given his 91mph fastball. Rashi's had some mediocre results in AA and AAA the past few years, but Stuff+ doesn't look highly upon any of Rashi's offerings. He does come with all 3 options... meaning AZ wasn't even willing to spend an option on the pre-arb pitcher. Can't fathom why Falzoll made this move. I think he might be trolling fans. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/06/d-backs-to-trade-taylor-rashi-to-twins.html
  24. bean5302
    Getting expensive, mediocre, approaching free agency: Sign him to an ill advised extension right away!!!! Pre-arb, team controlled through 2029, hitting well with good advanced metrics: Trade him now for a bag of White Castle sliders!!!! There is no reason to expect Clemens to turn back into a pumpkin, but he doesn't have enough track record to get much back. He's finally been giving regular playing time and he's thriving. xwOBA says he's legit. Teams which are retooling don't generally trade good pre-arb position players because it defeats the entire purpose.
  25. bean5302
    To your point, Winokur over his last 143 PA (start of May onward). I don't have batted ball data, but the BB/K rate change is big from April.
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