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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    First basemen don't absolutely have to be a power hitter. 1B is worth about -12.5 runs in positional value or -1.25 WAR. A league average hitter at the plate is worth about 0.5-1.0 WAR. That's like a .700 OPS. To be worth starting (2.5+ WAR) a 1B will need to OPS about .800. How they get there doesn't matter, but getting there without at least .175+ ISO is very hard. .300/.370/.400 doesn't get there for example. Playable, sure, but not desirable. .250/.340/.460 does get there.
  2. bean5302
    Yeahhhh, we'll see how "filthy" it really is when he starts throwing strikes. His K rate dropped by 30% and his BB rate increased by 20% going from A+ to AA because hitters are better at not swinging at junk. Quick struggled in most of his AA appearances so he's got a lot of work to do next year.
  3. bean5302
    Marek Houston. Hands down. Went from all glove guy who was viewed as a maybe an MLB player if his bat could produce just enough as barely a top 10 Twins prospect to arguably the best prospect in the system. He's now viewed as an almost guaranteed starter in MLB with a perennial All Star potential. Jenkins was hyped to the moon before the season even started, once again missed a ton of time due to injuries and didn't really turn any heads until the last few weeks before his promotion.
  4. bean5302
    AAA replacement team = 45 wins. Fangraphs fWAR = +31.0. Baseball Reference bWAR = +28.5 Pythagorean = 75 Expected wins = 73.5-76.0 Actual wins = 77.0 I'm not sure how much of the wins Shelton provided. I don't think he was always trotting the best line up out there or the best defensive positioning choices.
  5. bean5302
    There's plenty of doubt. Witt probably has better physical skills than Houston, Witt has proven himself to have a excellent glove, outstanding range and a strong arm with accurate throws at the MLB level. Houston is scouted as an excellent shortstop. He's proven nothing at the MLB level, and scouting fielding is still very much based upon the eye test and the way players "look" while fielding.
  6. bean5302
    Come on, what about James Outman?
  7. bean5302
    Did you intentionally not read my posts or are you just determined to lie about what I said?
  8. bean5302
    I'm not worried about losing him. Bluntly, I'm saying he's likely not talented enough to make a top 100 or ever be a legitimate MLB player. There's not a lot of time left for Tait to prove he's a top prospect or he's got what it takes. That's my point.
  9. bean5302
    Bradley has more in the tank and he's entering his prime. If he gets better at locating, he could rise to ace status. He's elevated his stuff, but I see no improvement in his pitch location skills at this point. Repeatability has been a problem for him, and while he's committed to scouting and learning about his opponents more, he might need to sacrifice a little velo for improved control or work on his mechanics. Whatever is holding his ability to locate pitches back.
  10. bean5302
    I'm sure Jax is very happy with the decision he made as well. He probably has 60% chance of going to the World Series and even potentially being a starting pitcher in the World Series.
  11. bean5302
    This is a whole lotta "MEH" from me.
  12. bean5302
    You're missing the point. Rule 5 exists because the expectation is talented players are MLB ready by the time Rule 5 comes into play. Rule 5 exists because there is an assumption a team is hoarding talent in the minors rather than giving them the chance in the big show that talent has already earned. It's a fail safe to prevent obvious unfair tactics. It's rare for a truly talented player to need to burn options before they're close to MLB ready. Tait is in the low minors with 1 year to go before he hits Rule 5 eligibility. International Picks & High school picks Common for higher end talent to make it in 2-3 years, back end talent 4-5 years. College Picks Common for higher end talent to make it in 1-2 years, back end talent in 3-4 years.
  13. bean5302
    There isn't a "lot of time left" since Tait is rule 5 eligible after next year and he's in the low minors still. Tait doesn't hit and his defense is questionable. Tait is young on paper. He's getting pretty experienced now having been a professional baseball player for 3 years. Talent is talent. It generally shines through pretty easily in the low minors.
  14. bean5302
    Marek Houston looks like a highly probable starting MLB shortstop. Beyond that, there's plenty left to learn about him. Even if he hits league average, that's still going to be a 3 WAR player based on how his glove scouts. Comparisons to Bobby Witt, Jr. at this point are absurd. You're talking about arguably the best position player in baseball.
  15. bean5302
    Not sure what metrics you're looking at. Ober owned a 4.23 FIP and 4.99 xFIP first time through. Or did you look at his 2.2 inning sample as a reliever?
  16. bean5302
    Yeah, he's got a 25% chance because he's not exactly Matt Canterino yet. Bottom line is players who miss basically 2 full seasons for different injuries back to back never make it.
  17. bean5302
    $7M for a #7-8 bullpen arm is wasting money.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins need to be pursuing free agent arms. They have a questionable farm at this point and they have a ton of needs.
  19. bean5302
    The systems aren't parallel, and it's just as easy to name guys who fans aren't so excited about like: Gabriel Gonzalez + Brett Renfrow + Marco Raya. That said, Peralta was coming off a much better season than Joe Ryan and Peralta was cheaper to boot.
  20. bean5302
    I think he'd make closer to $18MM based on Skubals decision and the special accomplishment clause. Joe Ryan was an All Star last year. But that's you vs. me vs. anybody else. There's certainly no reason for Ryan not to push it in arbitration if the Twins decline the $13MM option and that will carry into the next CBA which is likely to be much friendlier to arbitration winners.
  21. bean5302
    I don't know if this needs to be pinned at the top of every list but opening offers and early proposals are subject to change.
  22. bean5302
    I don't think so. Joe Ryan's market value AAV right now is $22MM according to Spotrac. I don't believe it's commonly believed the draft pic compensation for qualifying offers is going to continue after this year. Joe Ryan is going to make $12MM next year. That's $10MM of surplus value. That's what Joe Ryan is worth. SWR had $16MM of surplus value this past offseason.
  23. bean5302
    I don't think Gomez is remotely intriguing as a significant bullpen option for a team looking to compete. Zoll had his opportunity to build the bullpen prior to the start of last year and he skipped it following the Falzoll bullpen philosophy. Involving coaches in the process of acquisitions makes some sense, but that's honestly why you have scouts. If coaches are involved, it should be at a final sign off or a direction of what they feel offers opportunity. Sounds to me like Zoll isn't ready for an upper role.
  24. bean5302
    Coby Mayo just put up a 2.0 fWAR season at age 24 in just under 500PA, and he's not a free agent until 2032, and he's not even arb eligible until 2028. Projecting Mayo, you have to assume anywhere from 10-15 WAR ($80-120MM) with a salary of about $30MM. So he's +50-80MM of trade value. Joe Ryan has 10MM of surplus value. Pick any organizational 6-8 (who is not near the top 100). That's what Joe Ryan can get.
  25. bean5302
    I don't see how he fits with the Twins. I also don't see him having surplus trade value. Shelton outright said he couldn't play SS so the utility is limited as well. No idea where the Twins are going to try and play guys next year. We have like 10 utility players.
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