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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    He was never the same after TJ. Super important to look at xFIP for a Coors Field pitcher. 3.69 up to TJ. 5.39 post TJ. Probably nothing for the Twins to unlock, but worth taking a look and seeing if there is a change the team can make.
  2. bean5302
    Ben Ross is probably a lesser version of Ryan Kreidler.
  3. bean5302
    The Twins don't know their needs anymore because they don't assign positions to players. What position do they need to fill? Beats me. I have no idea who the Twins think should play what position. Just a bunch of straws to draw at the beginning of the game where almost everybody on the team is a lousy defender at all positions. Today, what it probably... should be... I guess? C - Jeffers 1B - Bell 2B - Lee SS - Culpepper 3B - Lewis LF - Larnach CF - Buxton RF - Roden DH - Keaschall Util - Kreidler UO - Martin Util - Clemens BC - Caratini The more playing time a player gets at their static position, the better the player performs in general. Muscle memory from repetition is far superior to knowledge of plays. That doesn't seem to be a commonly believed concept around the forums, though. I can't fathom why. It's the same for everything in life. From playing billiards and golf to laying brick and editing spreadsheets.
  4. bean5302
    I suppose it depends on which players you like and whether you like player analysis. Royce is doing great. Buxton is back off the IL, Jeffers is back from the IL, Larnach is still hitting really well, Luke Keaschall certainly appears to have turned a corner at the plate. The Twins made big moves to improve the bullpen at the deadline. Those are all things commented on and talked about recently.
  5. bean5302
    Houston's past 10 games .167/.271/.190 OPS .461 wRC+ 28, 10.4% BB, 35.4% K.
  6. bean5302
    So let's take a look at Aaron Judge's teeny tiny 95 PA sample size in 2016. wOBA .267. xwOBA = .281. 14pts difference. Falls within the 87% of players over a 3 year period. The next two years, Judge was within 20pts, he just hit the ball better. Judge went from 9.5% BB and 44.2% K in year 1 to 18.7% BB and 30.7% K in year 2. That shows in expected metrics. When you see a player adapt, you see the expected performance change because the balls are being hit differently. Contact squares, up, hard hit and barrel rates climb, walk rate jumps, strikeout rate drops. Brooks Lee? None of that. He's hitting balls the same, walking and striking out the same, chasing the same, whiffing the same. That's actually not exactly true. He's actually having the worst year of his career in terms of expected results. Royce Lewis in 2023 is an excellent example. His first 13 games was all luck. wOBA .317 vs. xwOBA .249. He was getting results (singles) for no good reason. He didn't take a single walk and struck out 32% of the time. The next 24 games wOBA .396 vs. xwOBA .334. The wOBA was insane, but the part that matters is the 85pt improvement in xwOBA. BB rate jumped from 0.0% to 8.2%. K rate dropped by 40% down to 22%. ISO jumped 50% where Lewis was getting extra bases, not just singles. Then the last 21 games is where the magic happens. wOBA .431 with an xwOBA of .422, again an 88pt improvement. Lewis was literally playing like an MVP. Walk rate 13.2%, K rate 18.7%. ISO to an elite .329. Lewis' actual production was mirrored by his expected production. This is why people like me continue to believe in Royce. What Royce was doing at the end of 2023 was no fluke, unlike Brooks Lee's 2026. Royce had no vulnerabilities to pitch type or pitch location. His .304/.396/.633 OPS 1.029 wRC+ 179 production was legit, and right in line with expected production. That's what adaptation looks like.
  7. bean5302
    Then why wasn't he too smart for them in the 2 previous seasons?
  8. bean5302
    Jenkins on a home tear lately. If there's one thing that can silence doubters, it's home runs. Batted ball data isn't needed when the ball leaves the field. That's no grounder or pop-up. Signs are really starting to point to him being dialed in and having it figured out. Houston struggling with K's recently after being on absolute fire to end July, but it's all SSSS stuff. I'm not sure there's a lot left to prove in AA now that he's close to 200 PA (188) and Culpepper is in the big show. Here's hoping the Twins are just waiting for Houston to shake off a mini-slump before he moves to St. Paul. Carson Tinney having a couple good games back to back is great to see. Hoping that's a sign the adjustment to wood bats is starting to happen. Hopefully, he's able to take some stuff away from Lackey and coaches to improve his transition time which is supposed to be one of Tinney's blockers on controlling the run game.
  9. bean5302
    Because I've literally done the math on this before. It's not close. Emma has been on 7-day/10-day IL's a lot. He hasn't been on 60-day IL's a lot.
  10. bean5302
    DH. That's his best position. It's honestly been his "best" position since he was drafted according to scouts.
  11. bean5302
    I wish I had better batted ball data over Jenkins' past 10 games where his production has been excellent. Prospects can turn a corner and put it all together like flipping a switch sometimes, and it would be awesome of that was what happened for Jenkins. Another 10 games like this and you have to trust the production for a prospect this highly ranked. Right now, I'm hesitant because his expected production this year has been down right pedestrian due to him being a ground ball and pop up machine all year, and he didn't hit well (actual results or quality contact) for the first 10 games after the break. Maybe he's flipped the switch or maybe he's just had a little hot streak.
  12. bean5302
    Over the past 3 years, there is not one of the 204 qualified hitters in MLB who have an xwOBA more than 36pts different than actual. 87% of batters fall into +/- 19pts. Brooks Lee over his first 2 seasons? -10pts Brooks Lee this year? +44pts over expected. Brooks Lee over his past 20 games? +35pts over expected. Either he needs to dramatically improve the quality of his hitting or his production is going to utterly tank. He's due for an ice cold streak at this rate.
  13. bean5302
    As I've pointed out multiple times, balls literally, and frequently, bounce right off Keaschalls glove in the outfield. Stuff most baseball players are better at in high school. I've never seen anything like it. Not knowing when to open and close a glove.
  14. bean5302
    I think Emma next month would be too slow even. I'd flip Jenkins and Rodriguez, but I'm not intoxicated on Jenkins hype.
  15. bean5302
    Emma's expected outcomes are a bit better looking than Jenkins, it's not just the raw production. Walker Jenkins' expected outcomes in AAA are well below average. Jenkins' bat has been a ground ball and pop up machine for most of the year, and despite the narrative that he's heated up recently, Jenkins is actually performing about the same overall since the All Star Break in terms of results, even with the outstanding past few games. If Jenkins can put together another 5-10 games with these kind of results, you can't ignore it.
  16. bean5302
    He met the 90 days rule in all of his previous seasons.
  17. bean5302
    Everybody likes to be lucky, but regression to the mean suggests at some point or another, the luck will run out and Gomez will blow 4 saves in a row or something.
  18. bean5302
    The change in his splitter rate is consistent with other patches with Baltimore, but the abandoning of the sinker is new. The sinker and 4 seamer have been pretty similar in terms of actual results produced, but Stuff+ hates the sinker and is pretty neutral on his 4 seamer. FWIW, Kremer's xFIP is the same over his past 2 starts with the Twins as it is on the season so it's hard to say luck isn't involved in the extremely small sample size "unlocking."
  19. bean5302
    I would hope the Twins give him a long enough opportunity. A couple hundred plate appearances straight before they make that call. The Twins have been generous with with some players and impatient with others. Roster construction should allow for Rodriguez to get the opportunity, but if his stat line looks bad enough, it's going to be the strikeouts. .150/.250/.300 OPS .500 10% BB, 50% K is anybody worried if this is Emma after 100-200 PA? I'm not, and I don't see the risk. .200/.310/.390 OPS .700 12% BB, 35% K this is probably a reasonable expectation for him, and I can't see the Twins cutting bait on him if he does this since he can fill in at Center Field. .220/.350/.440 OPS .780 14% BB, 30% K this is what I feel is probably a ceiling. Obviously, he's more than safe if he does this.
  20. bean5302
    Activated 3/9/26 60-Day IL 5/6/26 (retroactive) Activated 7/28/26 If we go by the activated dates, he hits 90 days on August 29th. 5/6 - 3/9 = 58 days 8/29 - 7/28 = 32 days (90 total) This is the 40 man roster. It's not connected to MiLB games, but even if it was the first first Twins game 3/26 (subtract 17 days), Emma would hit the 90 days of active roster time on 9/13. Emma has to go back on the 60-day IL before 8/29 and stay there the rest of the year if he's going to get a 4th option year.
  21. bean5302
    Pretty clear to me this front office doesn't understand the concept of roster management. Zoll, if he's still here (hope not) next year will discover in Spring Training that Emma has no options and no good place on the roster with the other the 7 lefties he'll have signed who could technically stand in LF/RF or 1B.
  22. bean5302
    I've been over the topic a few times and my feelings about how players are viewed after their initial team gives up on them. It certainly feels like the Twins are done with Wallner, and Matt has talked about that in a Pioneer Press article recently. Also, Wallner has 1,107 plate appearances at the MLB level including 135 with putrid results (and expected results) this year. Rooker had 209 total plate appearances including only 30 plate appearances where he struggled in early April, 2021. After that small rough patch, his results were solid enough for 183 with excellent expected metrics and the Twins still closed the book. Wallner's last results at MLB were terrible and expected to be terrible. He's ending his 28 season and has over 1,000 plate appearances of experience at MLB. Rooker's last actual results in a Twins uniform were solid and the expected results were great. He was ending his age 26 season and only had 200 plate appearances at the MLB level. I don't see them as particularly comparable except the concern the Twins might be overlooking something. It's the front office's job to evaluate talent and they're paid millions of dollars more than you or I are paid to do it.
  23. bean5302
    Tait was struggling hard at the plate coming into the All Star break and he was very rough defensively. Occasionally putting a mistake meatball into the seats was more than offset by rough results in pretty much every other area of the game. From 8/9 - Tait had opponents steal SIX bases on him without catching a single one. He's seen 123 stolen bases against him this year. Other teams see him as an automatic to run on. SB Cepeda 2 (10, 2nd base off Lares/Tait, 3rd base off Lares/Tait); Hartshorn (6, 2nd base off Lares/Tait); Lumpuy 2 (2, 3rd base off Lares/Tait, 2nd base off Becerra/Tait); Hallquist (11, 2nd base off Lares/Tait). He's substantially better results at the plate over the past 20 games since the All Star Break. Not sure about how the peripherals have looked, but he's got 4 errors in the past 7 games he's played C.
  24. bean5302
    We're not out of it, but we're now 3rd in the division and falling against the White Sox and Tigers, who've worked their way back into contention.
  25. bean5302
    Emma should get the call. He's been better than Jenkins in AAA, he's out of options and the Twins need to see how he looks in MLB so they can have an offseason strategy.
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