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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anybody else. If you've watched Rosario and the kind of utterly trash pitches he's driven hard, you might feel different. Rosario hit .288 and .290 while still chasing trash and walking at 5% across 2017-2018. Rosario typically posts excellent contact rates despite his aggressive style and the fact he receives a low percentage of pitches in the strike zone. Rosario does and can recognize balls vs. strikes. He's just overly aggressive. Rosario could compete for the batting title if he'd lay off the trash pitches. Instead, early in his career, Rosario sold out for power trying to keep up with Sano and I believe he's been arrogant as a result of his successes in hitting garbage. There is some hope for him. Rosario is trying to tighten up his game based on his swinging strike rate and o-contact rates. His swinging strike rate was under 10% last year and his o-contact rate has skyrocketed while his overall swing percentage hasn't dropped much.
  2. bean5302
    From MLB.com Austin Martin = 65 Royce Lewis = 55 Misael Urbina = 55 Danny DeAndrade = 55 Alerick Soularie = 50 Jose Miranda = 50 Aaron Sabato = 50 Emmanuel Rodriguez = 50 Spencer Steer = 50 Yunior Severino = 50 From Baseball America in regard to general definitions. A 50 grade tool is "average" https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-20-80-baseball-scouting-scale/ It's worth noting that a players batting average may not represent their actual hit tool as plate discipline and experience can make a huge impact here. I'd say Eddie Rosario has at least a 70 grade hit tool. If he'd learn some discipline, his batting average would skyrocket. Royce Lewis scouting reports also mention Lewis being over-aggressive at the plate, but his pitch recognition and bat speed being well above average.
  3. bean5302
    Donaldson played 135 games last year, many of them with a lingering calf injury because the Twins wanted to manipulate Jose Miranda's service time rather than give Donaldson a chance to heal. Donaldson played in 155 games in 2019. In fact, the "very injury prone" Josh Donaldson has played in the 74th most games of any MLB player across 2019-2021 with 318 games. That'd make him the 2nd or 3rd most reliable player on any ballclub in general. Trevor Story ranked 30th in all of MLB with 346 games. Just 28 more than Donaldson across the past 3 years. Buxton played 187 games. Sano played 293 games. Kepler played 303 games. Cruz played 313 games. Donaldson? Again... 318 games. Even if Donaldson played the same, mediocre-ish brand of defense at 3B and just had normal luck, he'd have put up 4 WAR this past year.
  4. bean5302
    If you wish hard enough, anything is true. Put the Twins in the NL West and their 2019 team would have finished .500, at best. Rockies vs. Twins 2021 = $104MM vs. $121MM 2020 = $60MM vs. $49MM 2019 = $145MM vs. $113MM 2018 = $141MM vs. $131MM The 2022 predictions depend greatly on your source. BR predicted 3 over .500 teams in the AL Central this year. The White Sox are going to be very strong. I expect the Tigers to be a tough team as well. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2949927-way-too-early-predictions-for-the-2022-mlb-playoffs-and-world-series
  5. bean5302
    Gray is not Berrios. No where close. Once upon a time, Gray was better, but that was like 8 years ago. Now, Gray is far more volatile, dramatically less reliable and his velocity is dropping. There's a reason Gray is on a $31MM and Berrios is on a $131MM contract. See that extra $100,000,000.00 on Berrios' contract? It means something.
  6. bean5302
    You should throw the also completely unrelated Cruz trade in there because it makes your argument better.
  7. bean5302
    For a front office who consistently goes dumpster diving based on advanced metrics and projections... Donaldson looks like a 4-5 WAR player for this season if his luck returns to normal. All his advanced metrics showed he hit the ball just as well and had the plate discipline he's always had. Donaldson was a panic salary dump.
  8. bean5302
    Story desperately wanted to get out of a poor performing team with little direction in a tough division and owners who are viewed as cheap. The Twins were a poor performing team with little direction in a division which looks to be tough for the foreseeable future and owners who are viewed as cheap. I don't see the Twins spending the money. I don't see Story being interested in Minnesota.
  9. bean5302
    Well, when it's all said and done, you have to play the games so who really knows, but it seems to be both Garver and Donaldson are probably underrated. Garver, Rortvedt and Donaldson's projections show they're expected to produce quite a bit more than Gray, Sanchez and Urshela so in terms of on the field projections, the Twins are worse than they were, but the killer is they lost Petty along with it. They're worse on paper, they don't have any additional team control over players and they lost one of their top prospects.
  10. bean5302
    This is what accidental tanking looks like.
  11. bean5302
    How was Gray in 2016 or 2018?
  12. bean5302
    I'm dead serious with Florimon. He's was a super elite defensive shortstop who couldn't hit. He's been on MiLB contracts for the last several years. You want to quote Baseball Reference, that's fine. My issue with bWAR is I consider it kinda junk for defensive premium positions because of the shift and the fact bWAR doesn't account for it resulting in the potential to dramatically inflate actual value. Fangraphs, which uses a metric which does attempt to account for the shift (UZR) is 2.3 fWAR for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, which is barely holding his own for starting player and he played in 158 games last year. The Texas Rangers thought so much of him and his cheap, team controlled contract that they went out and signed two shortstops to replace him. Bottom line? Texas viewed Isiah Kiner-Falefa as a liability on a playoff caliber team or they wouldn't have been seeking to replace him. Sonny Gray has lost velocity and trended downwards over the past few years and he had a great 2019 which skews the numbers (over the past 3 years). If you're expecting a return to 2019 form in a league with a DH, I think you're being unreasonably optimistic.
  13. bean5302
    GG caliber shorstop = Pedro Florimon. Maybe we should have signed him instead? He played on a MiLB contract at AAA San Diego as depth behind Tatis last year. Kiner-Falefa is far below averge at the plate and that's an issue when half of the game is trying to hit the ball. Top 30 starting pitcher? Sure, 5 years ago. Sonny Gray's FIP looked pretty good last year, even so, he was the 48th ranked pitcher on Fangraphs in terms of WAR and didn't qualify because he was hurt too much. On Baseball Reference, Sonny Gray was 36th, 6 spots behind league ace Kyle Gibson.
  14. bean5302
    See Santana and Berrios? Santana spent 8 years in a Twins uniform. Berrios spent 6 years in a Twins uniform. Signing those guys to long term contracts means you've failed to develop replacements. Signing any player in free agency means the farm system failed to produce the needed talent. Period. Sometimes it's going to fail to produce. It's the case for every team. Hoping the farm system fails and you have to sign top talent at free agency wouldn't be my goal.
  15. bean5302
    Sure. Replacing a tire with a hole in it with a bald temporary spare while you're parked at a tire shop helps with driving a car, too. It doesn't mean there weren't far better options...
  16. bean5302
    Honestly, I don't know what to make of this trade. Reports on Petty were glowing, but reports on prospects like Petty almost always are and we have no real competitive play to judge. If the reports on Petty aren't overblown, he could be pitching as an ace at the MLB level in two years. More akin to what Gray was... rather than what he is today as Gray has trended downwards (and lost significant velocity). Petty was the first pitcher drafted by Falvey where I was becoming legitimately excited about him. My initial perception was raw hard "thrower" so I wasn't on board the Petty is an ace train. However, the reports made Petty seem like a natural pitcher who had just never needed to use his other pitches because of the elite velocity. At this point, Gray is probably a 2.0-3.0 WAR mid/back rotation starter so trading Petty could be a colossal mistake. A good front office will never, ever give up a potentially elite prospect for middle of the road, short term MLB talent. What I want from this franchise is direction. The Garver trade does not make the Twins better this year in my opinion, and it doesn't really make them better in the future as Garver was controlled just as long as Kiner-Falefa. I'm not bullish on Jeffers at all and I'm awfully skeptical the difference between Kiner-Falefa and Palacios (who has earned a shot in my opinion) at shortstop is more than 1 WAR. The difference between Garver and Jeffers at catcher is probably 3 WAR and I don't view Gray as anything but an average starter the Twins could have signed. The Twins might be filling holes for this season, but they're not a competitive team without massive ifs being resolved.
  17. bean5302
    What can I say, flailing about making moves which don't seem to form a cohesive plan doesn't get them a lot of credit?
  18. bean5302
    I have no idea why there is a perception Jeffers is a better defensive catcher than Garver. Since the start of 2020 at the MLB Level. Jeffers 832 Garver 620.2 innings. The better of the two = Steal Attempts = Garver 44 vs. Jeffers 75 Caught Stealing% = Garver 23% vs. Jeffers 20% Catcher Framing = This one is a bit of a toss up. Garver ahead in some years, Jeffers ahead in others same with different sources. Passed Balls = Jeffers 7 (every 119 innings) vs. Garver 7 (1 every 88.2 innings) Wild Pitches = Garver 22 (1 every 28.1 innings) vs. Jeffers 32 (1 every 26 innings) PB + WP = Garver 29 (1 every 21.2 innings) vs. Jeffers 39 (1 every 21.1 Innings) Errors = Garver 1 error (.998 fielding percentage) vs. Jeffers 4 errors (.995 fielding percentage) Garver is arguably better at controlling the run game, both in opponents' willingness to try to steal, and the likelihood they get caught stealing. Garver is arguably equal with catcher framing. Garver is arguably the more reliable receiver. Garver is arguably less likely to commit an error. Exactly why is it Jeffers is considered the better defensive catcher? Garver is an above average defensive catcher in most metrics when I've compared him to his peers.
  19. bean5302
    2.5 fWAR is the bare minimum for a starting position player who is pulling their weight. Any less than that, and somebody else on the team needs to make up for it. I guess I'm not sure why people are excited about him. He's not a good starter. Honestly, this just goes to Falvey and Levine continuing to have little to no respect for Garver as they have demonstrated throughout his career. Here's hoping Garver remains healthy and puts up that 5-6 WAR season within his potential.
  20. bean5302
    Btw, Buxton has literally played the following percentage of MLB games in his seasons at MLB (not including his rookie year of 2015): 57% 86% 17% 54% 65% (in only a 60 game season) 38% That's 6 years and just one season over 65% in his career (that was 5 years ago). I really don't understand the "wow" as people refuse to come to grips with Back = chronic back spasms (these are not going away) Migraines = chronic (these are not going away) Wrist = multiple sprains Hand/fingers = multiple broken bones and surgical intervention in 2014, serious sprains as well Buxton is also susceptible to strained hips and hamstrings Injuries add up. Every time surgery or serious sprains and strains happen, they weaken structure, build scar tissue and increase the likelihood of re-injury. I'd be shocked if Buxton put together a season of 100 games.
  21. bean5302
    One of the worst trades I've ever seen. Isiah Kiner Falefa wasn't a starting shortstop in the Rangers' eyes. They doubled down on that by signing two shortstops to replace him. You're talking about trading Mitch Garver for a AAAA shortstop or a utility player and little better than a PTBNL pitching prospect. This makes Ramos for Capps look like an A+ trade MLB has slotted Henriquez in as the 20th prospect in the Twins' system. Like WTF?
  22. bean5302
    I question your lack of source, lack of citation and lack of statistics.
  23. bean5302
    If there is a 120 game season, I don't expect Buxton to play more than 60 games and I do believe last year was largely a fluke. I'll comfortably take the under on his 4.2 fWAR. I do think Sano will post an OPS north of .778. It's a contract year for him and that OPS sholdn't be too far above league average for an all bat guy like Sano to get. Larnach I'd easily take the under OPS .750. I don't think he has what it takes as there's almost nothing other than a fastball he was able to hit last year, but I'd take the over .750 OPS for Kirilloff in a heartbeat. He's the real deal in my opinion. I expect him to have an excellent bat. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober I'd expect both of them to be right around 4.00 ERA. I guess slightly over. If we're sticking with .750 OPS, I'd take the over .750 OPS on Brent Rooker. His expected outcomes and advanced metrics showed him just getting totally fleeced by luck last year. I'd take the over 3.5 fWAR for Josh Donaldson if the season is 120+ games.
  24. bean5302
    Same thing. Find a credible source. Credible statistical analysis or shut up.
  25. bean5302
    Put up your own data or shut up.
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