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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Because they owe him, at a bare minimum, $12MM next year. ($9.25MM guaranteed + $2.75MM buyout for 2023's team option). I'm sure the hope is Sano gets on one of his patented hot streaks through the end of the year and the Twins can use that to trade him or justify keeping him on the roster next year.
  2. bean5302
    If the Twins feel Contreras is somebody they want to play over cave Cave, they'll release or trade Cave instead of screwing him over and earning the angst of the rest of the clubhouse and veterans across the league. Contreras' metrics across his limited MiLB experience at CF are similar to Cave's, but Contreras hasn't played CF as a primary position and hasn't played center at all this year. I'd say Contreras' bat profiles as maybe league average ceiling right now. It's worth noting Cave has been significantly superior at the plate over the past couple years in his time at AAA (OPS .984, .972) to Contreras (.891). Cave has a higher batting average, double the walk rate and a much lower strikeout rate. Cave's had a rough couple seasons comprising a grand total of about 200 plate appearances where before that Cave showed roughly league average play in center field with a slightly above average bat.
  3. bean5302
    Gotta be fun for Contreras to get a big feature article like this. I also appreciate these writeups, though I'm pretty skeptical of Contreras getting called up. He's not currently on the 40 man so that'll make things more difficult and there are some big red flags in the batting profile, but if he's able to put a couple things together, who knows?
  4. bean5302
    Meh, I'm fine with that's happening. The Twins aren't good this year, but the free agency class for 2022 is amazing. I continue to be irrationally optimistic the Twins will become a different team and use all the extra money to make a couple big signings instead of making 15 medicore to bad signings and throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks while log jamming the talented guys in the minors.
  5. bean5302
    Click on the article link first, then the podcast at the bottom of the article. The link is definitely to a podcast from like 2018 when Joe Mauer and Escobar were on the team haha.
  6. bean5302
    Plus the $2.75MM for the Twins buying out his option.
  7. bean5302
    Buxton is not a free agent and will not be a free agent at the end of this year. I think the speculation, even though it's fun, about what Buxton might command in the free agent market right now is interesting, but moot. In regard to that, if Buxton was a free agent this offseason, I can't imagine any team in baseball offering him more than 1-2 years. The only way Buxton gets that big AAV along with several years is to play a full season and produce more value in that season than he's ever done in his career. Buxton's situation makes it really hard for the Twins to extend an offer which would likely keep him. Since Buxton is virtually guaranteed of $25-30MM over the next two years between his 2022 salary and the QO he's going to receive, it makes a big impact on how low of an AAV he'll accept on an extension. Even if Buxton remains very good, but injury prone while playing 1/2 seasons from here on out, he'll still make $70MM over the next 7 years. However, Buxton putting together 2 full seasons in 2022-2023 would put him into a position to cash in hugely. I'd think he could pull in $170MM over the next 7 years on a 5 / $150MM year deal. A mid way point where I think Buxton would sign is 7 years $125MM, but if he remains injury prone or slows down, it's an albatross contract for the Twins similar to Jason Heyward's contract with the Cubs. Thus, the Twins cannot reasonably offer Buxton significantly more than the low end of Buxton's value over the next several years and Buxton can't accept what the Twins can reasonably offer.
  8. bean5302
    It's tough to speculate what the Padres would offer for Berrios. They may well be more interested in Maeda because of cost. I'd see the Padres being intrigued by Kepler and Rogers, too. I just have zero faith in the front office to recognize the position the team is in right now. I get the feeling the front office thinks we can compete largely as-is, like back in 2011. The White Sox are likely monsters and Detroit is ready to build. The Indians are better than us this year, too. The Twins are not going to be playing in the weakest division in baseball like they were in 2017-2020. The same talent level will not get the job done in 2022 like it did in 2019 when career years showed up out of the woodwork like the 87 and 91 WS teams. Side note, Darvish is not on the IL, and he dominated in the two starts immediately after the sticky stuff change. He then came down with forearm tightness and spent some time on the 10 day IL before coming back and pitching 5.2 innings of 2 run ball on the 20th.
  9. bean5302
    I think everything depends on whether the Twins get a good offer and whether or not they reasonably feel they can extend him. If they're competent, they're in hard talks with both Buxton and Berrios right now.
  10. bean5302
    Or traded to somebody else. There's no guarantee the Twins keep those pitchers. I'd non-tender Thorpe and Smeltzer. If they stay available, maybe sign them to MiLB contracts as AAA roster filler with an chance to see MLB action due to injuries. The Twins can also non-tender Coulombe, Astudillo, Cave and Garlick to bring them back in MiLB contracts if desired. That's 6 spots easy. Add in guys like Colome, Law, Happ, Minaya, Simmons and Robles who are either free agents or not really worth paying in arbitration and you start finding a lot of spots opening up.
  11. bean5302
    I'm not insinuating the Twins have a 2 man bullpen, I just that I think Rogers and Duffey are important to keep and are among the highest risks for the Twins to trade because of their cost.
  12. bean5302
    I have no concerns about the Twins bullpen in 2022 so long as they extend Rogers and keep Duffey, which they should absolutely be doing. There are always a ton of cheap relief arms available in free agency and tons of options for relief arms in the minors.
  13. bean5302
    Here are my preferences, if possible, keeping in mind it takes 2 to tango and the Twins have no control over whether or not any of the impending FAs will actually be FAs since their current teams are all just as likely to extend. Trade: Polanco, Sano (eat $11MM), Buxton Acquire: Syndergaard Extend: Berrios, Rogers ($10MM 2022), Syndergaard (20 MM 1 year), Refsnyder (750k) Sign: Verlander (20MM 1-2yr AAV), Baez (20MM AAV), Cruz (12MM AAV) Release/Nontender: Cave, Garlick C = Garver, Jeffers 1B = Kirilloff 2B = Arraez SS = Baez 3B = Donaldson UI = Gordon LF = Larnach CF = Celestino RF = Kepler UO = Refsnyder DH = Cruz SR = Verlander, Berrios, Syndergaard, Balazovic, Winder, Maeda RP = Rogers, Duffey, maybe a couple other FA relievers. The rest of the bullpen from our system. This probably puts the Twins at $140MM (assuming they eat Sano's contract). If it's too much $$, might have to trade Donaldson and go with Miranda. Edited this because I forgot to put Maeda into the rotation (assuming 1 pitcher is down all the time)
  14. bean5302
    It's also worth considering the baseballs themselves are different between the minors and majors and pitchers often have to make adjustments when the come to the big show. I'd think the Twins would want to see him in person this year given his age and fringy status.
  15. bean5302
    xFIP is probably one of the best metrics for a SSS out of MiLB. BABIP, LOB, and low HR rates are not relevant for xFIP. Even so, xFIP still has potential weaknesses. No stat is perfect.
  16. bean5302
    I have no problems trading Rooker, but in order to get meaningful value, he's going to have to play at the MLB level and prove his MiLB numbers aren't a mirage at the MLB level. Sano is super hard to quantify. He's had a couple great seasons, a good season, a couple weak seasons and a couple outright clunkers. The weak and clunkers make up 4 of his past 5 seasons. It's who Sano is today that has his playing status in 2022 in question. Had Sano committed to being prepared to play 3rd base at a high level, I sincerely doubt we'd be having any such conversation right now. There's no doubt in my mind that Sano could be in the same category as Bryant and Machado. Unfortunately, Sano didn't have that commitment and as a player who cannot play a defensive position outside 1B, all his value is built into his bat making his leash very short when it comes to struggles at the plate.
  17. bean5302
    Gratz to the winners! An open and active community is key to keeping it active on sites like this one!
  18. bean5302
    It wasn't about Rodriguez not being worth his contract. Rodriguez was the best player in baseball at the time and he was worth his contract. The Yankees just couldn't really afford to take on the whole contract and the Rangers weren't going to eat a significant part of the contract without big compensation so the Yankees, shockingly, sent a great young player named Alfonso Soriano. Soriano was already a 2 time All Star coming off consecutive 5 WAR seasons at age 28 and he had 3 years of team control left. That's why the Rangers were willing to pick up $67MM.
  19. bean5302
    The Twins could totally, probably, maybe swing that... if they threw in $16MM to cover the rest of this season's salary, plus cover next year and his $2.75MM buyout for not exercising the $14MM team option in 2023. Woof.
  20. bean5302
    Seems like a lot of low hanging fruit on the 40 man for next year. Thorpe, Smeltzer, Cave, Garlick, Astudillo, etc.
  21. bean5302
    Rooker had an OPS of .960 and an OPS+ of 163 in his first 21 plate appearances at the MLB level last year before getting hurt and people were clamoring for him to start the season on the 26 man. He played 8 games this year and people want to release him, haha. Playing Rooker every day is the best thing for the Twins and for Rooker. I really do expect the universal DH to be in the next CBA and when it happens, NL clubs are going to be very hungry for bats. If Rooker can even pull off an OPS above .750, there will be interest in him. In regard to Sano, I wonder how long of a leash the Twins will give him before pulling the plug? Even if the Twins ate his entire contract, I doubt they could find a trade partner this year and I'm sure they don't want to rely on him to provide any value next year. I'm guessing the Twins will try to trade him while eating all or the majority of his contract this offseason.
  22. bean5302
    I mean, the best news from this is Kirilloff is expected to have about an 8 week or 56 day recovery time so it shouldn't be a factor for him in 2022. Since Kirilloff remains on the 10 day IL, it does seem like the Twins are hoping for a quicker than normal recovery so he can get back onto the field this year despite the rumors his season is officially done. There are also some news the Twins may look for opportunities for Kirilloff to get some winter ball time if he's not able to make it back for the regular season. Even if he has recovered a little early, it'd be awfully unexpected for him to be ready in time for a rehab assignment while the MiLB season was still ongoing. Rough break for a guy the Twins really need to pan out.
  23. bean5302
    Shoemaker accepted his assignment to AAA when he didn't have to. It seems reasonable the Twins told him he'd be a starter and have the opportunity to work on his game with the possibility of being recalled or traded. If that's not the case, Shoemaker wouldn't have a good reason to accept an assignment and the Twins would have just released him.
  24. bean5302
    Sorry, without a link, your comment is not credible in light of the dozens of printed articles I found stating the Twins were in the bidding and had made offers, were meeting with Wheeler's agents and talking directly to Wheeler himself. In regard to the podcast... I guess I could struggle to wade through the hour long rambling babble to find the quote. Just point me to the podcast in a link. Actually, I think it's fair to concede there weren't a few more starters who were objectively better than Darvish. deGrom, Cole, Greinke, Wheeler, Lynn, Bieber, Ryu and Scherzer were all better. How much? Not a ton for most of them, but they were better. When I say "better" I'm talking about in terms of rotational position. Ace, #2, #3 #4 #5 type of style as defined by the pitcher you would most want on the mound in a 1 game playoff. Darvish's injury history is irrelevant to how good he is. It was already factored in as the only reason he didn't get $200MM+ instead of $126MM. In any case, unless you find a link to your source for Wheeler outright telling the Twins not to make any offers, this will be my last post on it. If you do find the link, I'll be happy to listen and eat crow if what you're saying is true.
  25. bean5302
    Please provide any legitimate source for Wheeler's agent telling the Twins to stop wasting their time unless it was in regard to an offer Wheeler's camp already rejected, but the Twins kept floating. If the Twins had made a 5 year / 125MM offer, Wheeler would be wearing a Twins uniform. Instead, they low-balled Wheeler relative to other offers. Darvish is a legitimate ace, but he came with (and still comes with) injury risk. He's a pitcher who can completely shut down an opposing playoff lineup. Calling him a #2 or #3 based on WAR which includes his injury lost 2018 isn't an argument made in good faith. Darvish is arguably as good as any pitcher not named deGrom from 2019-2021, you know, when he was actually pitching.
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