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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Not sure about that. I looked back at the old articles in the dead zone of the season when Baddoo was picked and there were a couple people not excited about him being exposed. The overall concensus wasn't one of concern though. That said... it's not the fans who need to make the right calls on who to protect. It's certainly expected MLB franchises and the Twins front office would have a better idea of talent under their control.
  2. bean5302
    Dobnak didn't have the level of success or the strikeout stuff Ober had in the minors. I think Ober has much better stuff and, as a result, a much better chance of sustained success provided he stays healthy.
  3. bean5302
    I think Ober has a real shot at sticking in the rotation. I saw a comment above about long term #4-5 starters, but those guys are almost non-existent in MLB. By definition, those back end rotation starters only need to take 1 step back and they're out of the rotation or baseball entirely. All it usually takes is one full year of scouting reports to expose a fringe pitcher's stuff to make it look like batting practice and there are always a bunch of fringe arms ready at AAA to step in for league minimum. Until the scouting reports catch up, even a fringey AAAA pitcher can eat enough innings and keep the game close enough. Some home town examples like Slowey and Blackburn come to mind.
  4. bean5302
    I think Cave's beard is a major misstep professionally. It makes him look like he's in his 40s and there's no way painting yourself as a decade and a half older than you are when you're a fringe MLB player is a good idea in my opinion. Unlike a lot of Twins fans, I had no issues with the Twins keeping Cave, and I don't think keeping Cave had much to do with Wade being traded. Cave's performance at the plate across 2018-2019 was just as good as Buxton's 2019-2020, but Cave definitely performed awful last year in a small sample size so it was reasonable to expect a rebound. That said, the Twins aren't using him anymore, and I don't think it's likely he's on the roster next year so I don't understand why he's on the roster right now. He has 29 plate appearances in the past 2-1/2 weeks since his rehab assignment ended and he was recalled.
  5. bean5302
    I think it's perfectly fine to have Noah Miller at 15. He's projected as a shortstop and given high grades for his smoothness at the position. I honestly don't think there's a lot of difference between 15-30 in the Twins system. There's a lot of medium quality depth and it's hard to judge a lot of these players as significantly better or more likely to contribute than another.
  6. bean5302
    Wallner's 23 years old with a BB rate of only 7.3% K rate at A+ of 35%. Wallner shouldn't be in the top 30. Compared to Daniel Palka, same age, same level. D. Palka: .280/.352/.532 wRC+ 135 9.7% BB, 28.5% K Wallner: .277/.338/.555 wRC+ 137 7.3% BB, 34.4% K I wouldn't say Wallner is absolutely a bust at this point, but he needs to make an enormous change in his plate approach.
  7. bean5302
    Kepler's fine. He's clearly pushing at the plate, and I do believe some of his critics have a point with the "sell out for the home run" going on, but Kepler is not the problem. He's a 2.0 WAR player if you have him in RF. That's fine, especially given the fact he's only making $6.5MM per year. Kepler's contract raised a lot of eyebrows, but not because Kepler wasn't worth it. It raised a lot of eyebrows because of the potenital Kepler's contract could turn into another Yelich contract where the player was vastly underpaid because teams in MLB have such ironclad player control, paying extremely productive players peanuts through their prime. Kepler didn't turn into Yelich. It's good for baseball, but bad for the Twins that he didn't. Fans are acting ridiculously when they're upset Kepler isn't an All Star making $6MM a year.
  8. bean5302
    Sano's not a kid anymore. He's been in the big show for 7 years now and I do believe he may be getting a sense that his career is teetering on the brink, but things are going to need to bounce his way and he's going to need to put in effort and dedication he's never remotely come close to showing in his MLB career. If Rooker figures out how to adjust, Sano could find himself under Rooker on the DH depth chart. He's blocked at 1st by Kirilloff. He's blocked at 3B by 70lbs, Donaldson, Arraez and Miranda. If Donaldson isn't traded, it's hard to imagine him not slotting over to DH in an attempt to keep him healthy. Arraez and Miranda would then pick up 3B.
  9. bean5302
    Those weights are from about 10 years ago. He didn't put on much weight for quite a while, but his power has really come on this year. No idea if he gained muscle mass over 2020.
  10. bean5302
    Simmons is going to have to take a MiLB deal at this point, and a guy like that doesn't provide an obvious plan at SS for 2022. Not sure why some people feel watching horrible veterans play instead of potentially excellent rookies makes for more entertaining games, but hey, whatever floats their boat.
  11. bean5302
    Astudillo is a known quantity. He'll be 30 in two months so he's not some prospect who could find another gear. Honestly, I think Astudillo would potentially be able to keep a utility spot on an MLB team if he dropped 50-60lbs, but he's more likely to find a niche on a MiLB contract as an emergency catcher someplace.
  12. bean5302
    In regard to Sano's consistency, his year to year performance has been: 2015 - Great 4.5 WAR full season pace 2016 - Awful 0.5 WAR full season pace 2017 - Good 3.0 WAR full season pace 2018 - Awful (1.0) WAR full season pace 2019 - Good 3.0 WAR full season pace 2020 - Awful 0.0 WAR full season pace 2021 - Bad 1.0 WAR full season pace. Hard to get much less consistent. Thing is, Sano only has one playable season in the last 4 years. He's also clearly in decline meaning there aren't probably any bounce back (good) years left and his defense was so bad at 1B this year, he's likely slated for the DH going forward. His exit velocity is the 2nd lowest of his career and even though his K rate is down, he's not getting on base anymore. Chris Carter was never as good as Sano, but never as bad, either. Chris Davis, in the 4 years prior to his huge contract was 7.1 WAR, 1.1 WAR, 4.9 WAR, 3.1 WAR producing more value than Sano's career best in 3 out of 4 seasons. Davis has (6.0) WAR over the past 4 seasons and still has 40% more lifetime WAR than Sano. I agree Sano isn't a huge problem for the Twins because they don't need to play him. Eating $12MM to release him before spring training next year wouldn't break the franchise, and if he continues to hit the ball well through the end of the season, keeping him on the roster for depth won't really do any major damage, either. My projection of Sano seems pretty reasonable.
  13. bean5302
    Don't get me wrong, I'm cheering for the Twins and their players to perform. I'd just much rather not see Palacios put up a 3 win season as a starting shortstop with another team next year or have the Twins hang on to Donaldson until mid-season before Miranda puts up All Star numbers staring mid year when Donaldson goes down with a hammy.
  14. bean5302
    Ober is definitely taking advantage of his situation and making a case for the back end of the rotation next year. Here's hoping he can keep it up and even moreso that he can remain healthy!
  15. bean5302
    I present this article in defense of retreads. Please do read the article and replace the concept of tire with pitchers and laugh away. Maybe I'm strange, but I definitely did. https://www.bandag.com/en-us/resources/why-you-should-buy-retread-tires#:~:text=Retread tires%2C sometimes known as,North American truck tire market.
  16. bean5302
    I'm probably most interested in Spencer Steer and Blayne Enlow here. Steer seems fairly comparable to Noah Miller in regard to not having a really standout talent like arm or speed. 90mph infield velocity probably gives him a borderline plus arm at shortstop. His top speed seems to play at SS/CF out of high school, but he wasn't getting a good jump at all. https://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=355596 His RF/9 in the minors at SS shows promise, but like all Twins IF prospects, the high error rate shows up again. The Twins have him playing 3B in AA instead of shortstop because the team has no plan or direction and doesn't understand the value of training, repetition and practice at fielding positions. His K rate initially skyrocketed at AA, but over his last 10 games, it's settled back down. Honestly, I'm probably higher on him now that I was. If he wasn't in the Twins' system, he'd probably be a legit SS prospect right now. Enlow has the potential of being a starting pitcher whereas I don't think Sands really does. That's really what it comes down to in my opinion there. Enlow is going to have a lot of ground to make up next year and very little time to do it.
  17. bean5302
    I was going to leave this alone, but no, really, I like seeing people pour an hour into a thoughtful write up explaining how the Twins could have traded for pitcher X and signed pitcher Y along with making various other moves and signings only to have you exclaim "Impossible! No pitcher will sign with Minnesota! Impossible! The Twins are a small market team and can't afford a budget greater than the old school 90s Taco Bell value menu $0.59, $0.79, $0.99! Impossible! No teams will trade for Minnesota prospects! Impossible! No team in baseball saw player Z's break out!" It's a waste of time to try and debate you.
  18. bean5302
    Nice start from Griffin Jax again. Makes 4 in a row, even if the innings are a little short. I'm sure he's over the moon about tonights performance and the win. Even if the scouting reports and MLB bats catch up to him, you can't take games like tonight away from him. Some moves made in the minor league system today. I hope the front office's intentions start to emerge soon. I just can't see the value in seeing Simmons and Astudillo starting...
  19. bean5302
    Great to see the rebound from Balazovic. I'm excited to get Simon Wood-Richardson in on the action and see Joe Ryan. Lots of moves should open the door for some fringe guys I hope! Also, found an 8/2 article from the Pioneer Press I hadn't seen before. Talks about Lewis being joined by Chase Petty and other guys (like Noah Miller). https://www.twincities.com/2021/08/02/rehabbing-twins-prospect-royce-lewis-determined-to-return-and-ball-out-like-people-have-never-seen-before/ Lewis has been running in the pool already, but he expects to begin jogging on land next week. Near the end of the month, he’ll travel to Minnesota to visit team physician Christopher Camp, where he hopes to get the go-ahead to progress his hitting and lateral movement. He plans to stay in Fort Myers through October and then report to spring training a month early in early-to-mid January to help him get some more at-bats under his belt.
  20. bean5302
    Palacios' historical bat is pretty rough and he was legit awful for 2 years in Tampa. He does look really good this year, but he's also just turned 25 and he's in AA. If you project his bat into AAA and then MLB, there's a very real possibility his K% would jump quite a bit and his walk rate would plummet. Nick Gordon put up a 9.2% walk rate and 23.2% K rate in AA at age 22. I guess I'm just not sold that his new found power and plate discipline are a straight up product of talent rather than maturity. His defense has also slipped quite a bit in range factor this year, even accounting for the rock hands he showcased to start the season. It's tough to figure out what's going on for a casual fan like me who is relegated to stats as the scouting reports on Palacios have long since dried up. The lack of scouting on Palacios and his sudden emergence with what appears like a bat with some potential is intriguing and it's why I think the Twins need to find a spot for him at the MLB club as of 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard about Palacios bulking up, but it's one of the things a lot of scouts and fans wanted to see for a long time. It would explain a lot of the changes if he had packed on muscle, but I still believe he'll probably be heavily exposed at the plate against MLB pitching.
  21. bean5302
    Where's that dead horse???? I just found my spare baseball bat!
  22. bean5302
    Based on what I've read, would you consider Noah Miller to fall into a category of J.J. Hardy (with less arm since Hardy was throwing 91 off the mound in high school)? Hardy was never accused of having elite speed, but seemed to position himself well and he moved laterally really well, making tough plays look easy.
  23. bean5302
    People don't give Escobar enough credit for his fielding at shortstop in my opinion as the metrics suggest Escobar was certainly solid, even arguably above average at the position. His career MLB numbers are .979 (avg .975) and 4.16 RF/9 (4.10 avg). Escobar also owns a career +2.4 UZR/150 at shortstop at the MLB level. Taking a deeper dive into Palacios' numbers, which look pretty rough this year, they may have been driven by unexpectedly high error rates. Palacios hasn't committed an error in 21 games now and only 3 in the past 44 games so a fielding percentage more like .981 and his RF/9 would probably jump to somewhere around 3.80, but traditionally, his RF/9 has been much higher. Escobar was billed as a slick fielding, glove first kind of shortstop whereas Palacios is considered a bit borderline at the position.
  24. bean5302
    Keeping Pineda on the roster and pitching is totally defensible. The Twins already have 3 rookies in the rotation and 2 of the 3 are long shots to stick. They honestly don't have any MLB caliber starting pitcher candidates who aren't in the rotation right now. When Ryan is ready after his return from Tokyo, I expect he'll get a look. Thorpe will probably get a look if his velocity is there, Dobnak will probably be available at the end of the month. There aren't any legit options waiting for their shot right now.
  25. bean5302
    I was using this for reference. Average throw speed 85mph+. Reference to an above average arm at 91mph in the minors. Noah Miller has an average arm for a shortstop based on the reference I was using. Not mediocre in general. It's not apparent he has a cannon for a shortstop like Sano has or even as good as Gordon's arm which was in the 90s from the mound. http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/pro-scouting/scouting_arms.htm#:~:text=Scouts grade arms visually%3B in,around 85 mph and higher.
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