bean5302

The MLB leader has 24 starts this year. Bundy has 20, on pace for 30 starts Archer has 20. on pace for 30 starts Ryan has 19. on pace for 27 starts. Gray has 17. on pace for 24 starts. I'm not sure if your world is realistic based on what you're writing. Do you expect relievers to never allow a home run? Jax has 44 appearances. In 39 of those, he allowed 0-1 runs... Thielbar has 46 appearances. In 43 of those, he's allowed 0-1 runs... and only 1 of the games where he's allowed more than 1 run has occurred in his last 44 appearances. Why not throw Jhoan Duran under the bus like Thielbar and Jax? Duran has 3 games where he's allowed more than 1 run too. We ditched Joe Smith, who had only allowed multiple earned runs twice this year, lol. 20% of the runs Smith allowed was from the fielders knocking balls down with concrete gloves. Perhaps you think that's sustainable and good relief pitchers are guaranteed to go out there and go 3 up and 3 down all the time? In any case, Baldelli has been afforded several reliable relievers. He elected to use Duffey and Pagan all the time instead of giving Bundy or Archer another inning. Duffey still has the 3rd most innings of our relievers...

Pagan is getting eaten alive. While you can look at his xFIP and say "oh, he's unlucky" the Statcast metrics do not look good. EV = 91.4mph, bottom 2% Hard hit = 49.1%, also bottom 2% Barrel Rate = 13%, also very bad. Walk rate is high The worst part about it? Looks just like last year in a lot of ways.

Good on him, though it's a minor league deal. So long as Duffey performs in their AAA club for a few games, he'll get called up quick.

There are ingredients. Water, falafel, steak, salt, grits, blueberries, flour, orange peels, rye grass, old tires from an RV, cotton, etc. The ingredient not on the label but is still sometimes found <banned PED substance> There have been lawsuits over it happening multiple times. Even with league approved supplements. I can't remember if it was MLB or the NFL most recently.

The only Contreras the Twins are going to sign is playing in AAA for the Saints right now.

Yeah... if only Baldelli and the front office would actually play "starters" in their actual positions instead of using them like openers.

Then he didn't treat his "ringworm" through the proper channels = reckless or he didn't treat his haircut "fungus" through the proper channels = reckless Athletes damn well know better than to take medication without running it past team doctors.

Supplements can be on the safe list or have no ingredients on the label which violate terms and then, tada, they get "contaminated." It happens. There also seem to be some issues around DHCMT. Neither potential issue seems to be relevant here. Tatis acted recklessly.

Nope. Judge is will stay in NY. Turner will stay in LA. Arenado is on pace to win the NL MVP this year and he's not in the Twins' budget or their needs. Correa will be out of the Twins' budget.

Wallner definitely made a HUGE adjustment at the plate this year. His walk rate skyrocketed at the same time his strike out rates declined. Wallner talked about improving his plate discipline this year as well. It turned him from a borderline non-prospect into a pretty high ceiling MLB prospect, IMHO.

Ehhhhh, I don't know. Madison Bumgarner busted himself up on a dirt bike a few years ago. Chris Sale just broke his wrist biking a couple weeks after he finally made it back from the IL. Star players wind up punching walls and breaking their knuckles, etc. There are plenty of veteran players who don't follow the rules, too. The PED issue is totally different IMHO. I definitely believe players can wind up testing positive for a banned substance on accident or even if they were careful. Improperly labeled supplements caused a lot problems back in the day and I could see something funky happening now. Tatis' excuse is ridiculous though. Maybe it wasn't intentional, but especially after the motorcycle crash, this was extremely reckless at the very least. I think that's probably why San Diego is so pissed off.

Wallner's K rate hasn't increased as he's moved up and it's been decreasing all year. Since June 1, he's at 28.9%, and for a power hitter, it pains me to say this, it's probably better than average these days. If Wallner can replace Kepler is based on whether or not he performs at the MLB level when he gets to the Twins. Prospects are always question marks.

If Kepler plays a full season is the qualifier. He'll get there. WAR isn't a counting stat. It goes up and down with batting performance and fielding performance. At the end of the year, Kepler's bat will be above average and his WAR will rebound. He was at 1.3 fWAR before yesterdays game. He's at 1.6 fWAR now. He'll be at 2.0 EASY by the end of the year. Kepler has exactly 0 full seasons since he came into the league where he hasn't produced at least 2.0 fWAR.

I'm saying the unpredictability is inherent to the game when it comes to small sample sizes. Relievers are always small sample sizes.

Yeah no. No pitcher on the Twins is allowed to go deep into games. Besides, Gray doesn't pitch as deep into games as Bundy does. They days where Gray was going 6 innings back in May are long gone as he's pitched more than 5.0 innings just 2x in the last 2-1/2 months.

My point is that Kepler is a solid player. Larnach has yet to prove he is. As I noted above, yes, Kepler is a good potential asset to trade if they feel Gordon and Wallner could replace him. If you want to believe Larnach is more than the next Nomar Mazara, you can.

Every single scouting report from every single source on Julien says the same thing. Lacks speed. Mediocre to weak arm, mediocre to weak defense. Bat first player. From AA this year 13 stolen bases, 6 caught stealing. Julien has good instincts, but he lacks the physical ability to be good at stealing bases. Way, way easier to steal bases in the low minors. Julien's range factor is 20% lower than his peers and his fielding percentage is well below average. Which also aligns with all the scouting reports. Weak arm, no speed, bat first. Every. Single. One. Here's Julien at 2B compared to his peers with the most innings on each team playing 2B in the Texas League. Julien's numbers are truly terrible. Now, some of Juliens numbers are no doubt from being handicapped with highly defensively challenged Austin Martin at SS, but the sheer drop off between peers and Julien is pretty stunning. Player RF/9 Fielding Pct vs. Avg Leyba 5.03 0.989 21% Polcovich 4.45 0.978 6.70% Whitcomb 4.23 0.988 1.40% Stankiewicz 4.19 0.959 0.50% Dunn 4.16 0.979 -0.20% Massey 4.14 1.000 -0.70% Foscue 4.08 0.973 -2.10% Mann 3.89 0.973 -6.70% Julien 3.32 0.965 -20.80% Average 4.17 0.978

Kepler > Trevor Larnach. All day, every day. Better at the plate. Better on the base paths. Better defense. If Kepler plays a full season? 95% he's 2.0+ WAR.

I agree the homestand is critical to the Twins' chances. While the Twins have a huge number of games coming up against the Guardians in September, it's not reasonable to expect a huge shift in the standings. The start of September sees the Twins playing 15 of 18 of their games against teams with winning records, the first 7 all on the road against the Yankees and White Sox. That's not a stretch where you'd expect a team that's played well under .500 since late May to make a run. If the Twins don't make up some ground this month, their odds are going to look pretty rough. As of right now, the Twins would have to pass 2 teams (Orioles and Rays) to make the 3rd Wildcard with the Blue Jays and Mariners also ahead. Those aren't good odds. The White Sox have the weakest strength of schedule of the AL Central competitors for the remainder of the year. Fangraphs, as it stands today: Guardians 47.3%, White Sox 28.1%, Twins 24.6% division winners. Blue Jays 86.6%, Mariners 85.0%, Rays 51.9%, White Sox 19.0%, Red Sox 17.4%, Twins 15.5%, Guardians 15.0% for the 3 Wildcards. At least Fangraphs expects the Orioles to tank with a meager 3.8% chance at the Wildcard.

Not sure about that. Enlow last started a game on 8/6. 4.0 innings, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 Ks, 1 ER. It was a decent start, but the Twins have clearly been keeping his pitch count to about 60-65 max. He's been used a reliever a little earlier this year as well but last night was the first time he's ever been asked to pitch a single inning. If Enlow is going to be a reliever, there's limited reason to keep him at AA. Just fast track him to the big show.

2.0 WAR for a full season at $8.5MM or $10.00MM is a pretty good deal IMHO. That said, if Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner can take Kepler's place in RF for $8-9.5MM less while Kepler net's the Twins a mid level prospect, that's a no brainer.

It's not about a slow start per se. It's about sample sizes. It's not like you can expect players to never have a rough 10 game streak. Julien is overrated right now, IMHO. While he's stolen some bases, he gets caught 1/3 of the time because he lacks any speed. He's an absolute butcher at 2B with a high error rate and poor range, massively trailing his peers in the league in defensive stats. I see Julien as a DH with a very high hit/on base tool and moderate power. The question Julien will need to answer as he moves to AAA next year and into MLB is whether or not his hits and walks come from being passive and waiting for mistakes or having great pitch recognition.

It's Taylor ROGERS. Like Mr. Rogers. Not RODGERS like Aaron Rodgers. Anyway, I love for people to wait until a relief pitcher has a really rough game to jump all over them (this seems to happen frequently for Rogers around here). The guy owns a 2.24 FIP and 3.32 xFIP this year. Peripherals look outstanding as well. He's been a reliably good closer for years now, but he's just seemingly been unlucky, and with the small number of innings a reliever has, luck can be everything. 2.81 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 11.00 K/9 (28.5%) vs. 2.00 BB/9 (5.2%) BABIP .349 Rogers' stuff is working, too. He's essentially tied for the lead in called strike percentage. Hitters are being frozen watching strike 3 over and over again and he's just above average in swinging strike rate. Contact rate on Roger's stuff out of the zone is excellent. The BABIP is killing him. Let's look at our closer acquisition Jorge Lopez. 2.97 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 9.79 K/9 (26.6%) vs. 3.21 BB/9 (8.7%) BABIP .246 K rate is worse. BB is much worse. Chase rate is worse. Contact rates are worse. Swinging strike rate is worse, called strike rate is worse. First pitch strike is lower. Basically, across the board Lopez is inferior to Rogers. How about our super stud Jhoan Duran. 3.04 FIP, 2.32 xFIP, 11.55 K/9 (32.3%), 2.13 BB/9 (6.0%). BABIP .289 Duran's given up an extra home run or two more than expected. His overall line is better than Rogers this year. Duran has been pretty elite, but you can see the K rate, BB rate, and FIPs are similar to Rogers. When you're talking about 20 or 30 or 40 innings, you're talking about 5-7 starts for a starter (162 starts for Baldelli managed teams), all it takes is a couple unlucky base runners and a home run to jack ERA's up. Rogers has allowed 0 earned runs in 32 and 1 earned run in 8 of his 46 appearances. That's 87% of the time Rogers allowed 0-1 runs (earned or unearned) total.

The attitude "we played hard and gave ourselves a chance to win" is the attitude of a loser. It's garbage. It's also the Minnesota Nice team tradition. I don't know if Baldelli sets the tone or the front office sets the tone, but the tone needs to be different. "We expect to win every night and we should win these games. We have a great roster with guys who absolutely know their jobs and the skill to get it done, it's just a question of executing the way we should. When we execute, we win." - This is the message from championship teams. Confidence.

Even with a horrible, unsustainable, 0/27 slump where he's playing with a broken toe, Max Kepler is STILL OPS+ 97 with excellent right field defense. Kepler is a solid every day starter. Kepler had a higher fWAR than Ron Acuna until a week ago... It's the pitching. You know something really spectacular? Max Kepler has provided as much or more bWAR than every single pitcher on the Twins except Jhoan Duran. That's right. As much as Sonny Gray. 50% more than Joe Ryan. Want to see the Twins win? It starts with Rocco and the front office allowing the starters to do their job and pitch more than 60 pitches. It continues with the bullpen not hanging curveballs over the meat of the plate. It ends with the starters showing up the same night the bullpen shows up.