bean5302

It's possible, but the Twins would have to call him up in the next 2 days if he's going to be eligible for the playoffs. How crazy would it be to call him up later, have him perform well, then have to cut him before the playoffs?

In all honesty, this seems like the Mariners being... the Mariners. It's like they're trying to find lousy contracts. Rodriquez is very fast and will likely be a very good center fielder for the next several years, but the insane amount of risk to the Mariners here for what? If the Mariners just let things play out, and he continued to be a 4 WAR player, they'd have Rodriguez under contract in something that looked like this: 2023 - $1,470,000 (Assumes RoY) 2024 - $1,240,000 (Assumes $500k pre-arb performance bonus) 2025 - $6,000,000 2026 - $12,000,000 2027 - $18,000,000 2028 - $24,000,000 6 yrs - $62.7MM vs. 6yrs $96MM & 6-8yrs $108-368MM Now, what would it take to lock Rodriguez up in 2 more years, when he hits his first arbitration year? I find it hard to believe the 2nd team option at 8yrs and $240MM wouldn't be sufficient. The risk of Rodriguez being another 1 year wonder RoY and then falling back to a good, but not great player is pretty high, and that leaves the Mariners on the hook for 12yrs and $204MM for an average starter (or even a player who isn't starter quality), who will be in significant decline for at least 1/3 of that contract. It's not a true albatross, but it's not great.

Here's the chart as an image

I'll break things down for the deal here as reading multiple condensed paragraph tweets is a bit annoying. Team Option Team Option 2 Team Option 3 Team Option 4 Team Option 5 Team Declines Team Declines Team Declines Team Declines 0x Top 10 MVP 2x Top 10 MVP 4x Top 10 MVP MVP + 2x Top 10 2x MVP Player Opt 1 Player Opt 2 Player Opt 3 Player Opt 4 Year Age Base Contract OR 3x Top 5 MVP OR 4x Top 5 (8x) SS and/or AS (10x) SS and/or AS MVP + 2x AS 2023 22 4,000,000 2024 23 10,000,000 2025 24 18,000,000 2026 25 18,000,000 2027 26 18,000,000 2028 27 18,000,000 2029 28 18,000,000 2030 29 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2031 30 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2032 31 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2033 32 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2034 33 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000 22,000,000 25,000,000 2035 34 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2036 35 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2037 36 25,000,000 30,000,000 32,500,000 35,000,000 35,000,000 2038 37 35,000,000 2039 38 35,000,000

Twins fans just seem to get so attached to players who don't "suck." When it comes to Gio Urshela, his current salary is $6.5MM and his raise will probably be to something along the lines of $10MM. He's not a better option at 3B, 1B or DH than what the Twins have right now, even with all their current injuries, and I wouldn't want him playing away from those positions due to defensive value. He's honestly not a better option than what we already have today, right now, and $10MM could be much better spent someplace other than corner infield depth.

I would non-tender Urshela and allow him to enter free agency.

I hate to break this to people, but Wallner was drafted in 2019. Wallner's ETA would have been 2021 at the very earliest and 2022 would have been a perfectly reasonable timeframe for him even with a full 2020 season. He's been promoted at a good pace. Theoretical No Lost 2020 schedule. 2019 A- Ball 2020 A+/AA 2021 AA/AAA 2022 AAA/MLB Would anybody believe that wasn't a solid promotion schedule for a late comp A pick? Now remove 2020... Wallner's moving right along in the minors. He was drafted a year after Larnach and 2 years after Rooker.

There's that unbridled pessimism and misery we're looking for!

At the game tonight. Here's what I remember. I ate all the things. I looked up and saw Joe Ryan at 100 pitches at 5.1 innings. He made it to 107 on the night. Ryan came into the game averaging 87 pitches a game (by far the highest of the Twins starters). Ryan wasn't working super efficiently early on, but settled into things a little bit better after the first couple innings and really turned it into a nice start overall. Garlick looked really good out there. No rust to be seen while playing solid defense and making a lot of great contact, and the Twins hitters really fed off one another and there were a number of near hits as well. I'm going to try to stay positive on this post and leave out the negatives. Twins win!

Rotation Ryan Gray Mahle Duran Maeda Bundy and Archer may be gone to other teams as the Twins will decline their options. Winder and Ober move to the bullpen. Duran moves to the rotation. C - Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Miranda SS - Lewis LF - Larnach CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Arraez UI - Martin UO - Gordon Bench Bat - Julien BC - ? Kepler gets traded. Correa & Sanchez become free agents and sign with other teams. Urshela and Garlick get non-tendered and sign elsewhere. Bullpen Ober Winder Alcala Thielbar Lopez Jax Dobnak Megill Duran moves to the rotation (wishful thinking, I know). Fulmer becomes a free agent and signs elsewhere. Coulombe and Pagan get non tendered. Something like that. I suspect next year's team will look an awful lot like this year's team considering there's not much in the minors.

The season's not nearly over. There's still 25% of the season left to play, minimum, with 123 of 162 games played right now. Technically, the Twins could play another 60 games this year if the won the World Series. Would anybody be calling for Baldelli's job if the Twins win the World Series? No. they lose the World Series? No. they lose the AL Championship Series? No. they lose the AL Division Series? No. they lose the Wildcard round, but at least win a game? No. the lose the Wildcard round and are swept? Yes, some. they miss the playoffs entirely? Yes, many. they finish under .500? Absolutely. The way I see it, it's way too early to call the season a bust even though it's trending that way. Leaving a game in the 7th inning when your team is down 2 runs will miss out on a lot of fun and exciting come backs.

Nick Gordon is the Buxton replacement for the rest of the year. Billy Hamilton is an emergency depth/defensive replacement/pinch runner type.

Were there perhaps other assets the Twins had on the MLB or MiLB system which could have been used to secure a starting pitcher as good or better than Gray? Yeah, that's what I thought... This false dilemma is awful common on the boards lately.

Speaking of Petty, I'd be surprised if he wasn't in AA next year. 5 starts in A+ with a 10.38 K/9 a 2.91 BB/9 and a 3.17 FIP. He's dominated his last 3 starts. That one could cost Falvey his job.

The season strike out percentages don't tell a very clear story on Wallner. His strikeout rate has improved every single month this year. April = 39.2% strikeouts May = 31.4% strikeouts June = 29.5% strikeouts July = 29.5% strikeouts with a promotion to AAA August = 28.4% strikeouts Wallner has also reached base in 20 of 21 games this month with a consistent high walk rate. Seems like he's adapting to a more sustainable approach. Not sure how well Gallo is as a comp. Gallo struck out a lot more than Wallner in the upper minors (pretty consistent 37%) and he covered center field when he came up as I recall. His sprint speeds were on par with Nick Gordon. Even today, Gallo would outrun Larnach, Arraez and Correa. Basically, Gallo had significant defensive value and that's a major reason why Gallo was in the big show at age 21.

Varland has been everything you might hope for and more at AAA. There's nothing not to like. Elite strikeout rates, excellent walk rates, reasonable BABIP and strand rates. It might be worth calling his number now so he's playoff eligible and move Chris Archer to the pen.

Regardless of whether or not Rocco Baldelli is the team's problem or if it's the coaching staff, the players not being healthy or anything else. The Twins weren't predicted to make the playoffs this year out of the gate by a lot of fans or sports writers, but when they were several games up and playing near .600 ball and 5 games up in the AL Central at the end of May, expectations changed for fans and writers. Do I think Jim Pohlad was expecting a losing season considering the $140MM, record setting, Twins payroll? Definitely not. The last time payroll ballooned and the Twins flopped, Bill Smith got his walking papers. I wouldn't think Falvey's seat is especially secure at this point, but it's not like this team is going to lose 90+ games. Obviously, if the Twins make the playoffs all will likely be forgiven, definitely if the Twins make a playoff run. There's still time, but it obviously does not look great at 5.0 games back, tied with the seemingly drifting White Sox. Well Behind the Blue Jays, Rays, Mariners and now seeing a bit of a gap even against the Orioles. Actually, the Twins are closer to the division lead than the Wildcard at this point. Neither is out of the question. That said, if the Twins do not make the playoffs and continue to slump through September, somebody will take the heat. Rocco Baldelli is the easy fall guy. That's the way it's long been in MLB. Managers, coaches and sometimes the front office take the blame because owners can't fire players. In regard to the fans calling for Baldelli's job, it's natural and absolutely to be expected, whether or not you like him or dislike him, agree with his (and the team's philosophy) or not. Fans are going to lash out in disappointment and frustration and the players, coaches, managers, general managers and owners are going to feel the heat.

80% of starters in MLB go out to the mound for the 6th inning on average. The Twins only have 1/8 (Joe Ryan) 12.5% 50% of starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0% 27% of starters in MLB average 6.0 innings per start. The Twins are 0/8. 0.0% The team just set an all time record for latest point in the season where no starter had 100+ innings. That's not a trend. It's a new record. The Twins rank #29th in MLB for total innings pitched by starters, just ahead of Tampa Bay, who frequently uses relief pitchers as "openers" rather than true starters. Let's look at where the Twins starters with more than 80 innings and no relief appearances rank? Ryan = #69 (34th percentile) Gray = #89 (14th percentile) Bundy = #94 (10th percentile) Archer = #104 (dead last in MLB) The Twins are not following the pattern of other teams. The Twins have carved a path of their own, taking a new philosophy to the game to the extreme. The front office and Baldelli's jobs should be on the line if the process fails, and it's badly failing not only in terms of starter value, but exposing a weak bullpen all season long.

If all he wants is the moist guaranteed, he should be using oil and not butter in his cake recipes. Butter can dry out.

It's front page news because: #1 - It's the hardest anybody has ever hit a baseball in recorded MLB history. #2 - It was hit by a player who is also arguably the fastest runner in MLB today. #3 - It was hit by a 23 year old rookie who has the potential of being a super star. Basically, the same hype Byron Buxton was getting when he was first coming up.

Do you think Wallner just needs more time to adapt to his buy-in philosophy of looking for better pitches and taking walks if the pitches aren't there to hit? He really took a huge step forward this year, but it's got to be hard to suddenly find the balance of what's too aggressive and what's too passive?

Damn that Mauer!

Well, you've honestly got me there. I didn't look at the stats for corner outfielders back when the question of whether or not Buxton deserved to start (he didn't) in the All Star game. I still don't like the concept of "outfielder" vs. left field/right field/center field, but that's how it works. Based on the rules, I'd have to say Buxton definitely deserved to be an All Star.

Bundy... 89.2mph 4.51 xFIP burn him at the stake! run him out of town! don't trust him! Ryan... 91.9mph 4.45 xFIP isn't he dreamy??!!!

Since 80% of all MLB starters walk out for the 6th inning (on average), I'd say that's all MLB teams except the Twins