bean5302

Yes. Varland was pulled too early, putting the Twins into a situation the bullpen didn't need to be in and the Twins lost. I don't have any faith in Falvey, Levine and Baldelli at this point.

There have been articles released about it over the years and it seems like mangameslost.com may have the data, but it's a paid site.

Very exciting for Varland to get called up! I hope he views the Yankees as just another team and not so pensively as fans on this site. If he goes out and shows command of his pitches, he'll have a good shot at giving the Twins a solid start. Sometimes I do wonder if the Twins psyche themselves out when facing New York. The Yankees average 5.0 runs per game at home and 4.2 on the road. Less than a run per game per difference, but it feels like the expectation is they'll hang 10 on the Twins.

The Twins, White Sox and Guardians are running a different kind of 3 legged race, but still just as awkward looking as the normal kind. Except, sometimes, fans just want to put the burlap sack over their heads haha. At least it feels like the rest of the central is intent on keeping the the division wide open so fans can just enjoy the excitement of the potential for the playoffs

The 87 Twins team didn't get a "taste." The Twins have gotten plenty of "tastes" over the past few years in their 1 and done trips. 2017, 2019, 2020... They got their taste of the playoffs before in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 when they advanced 1 time before starting the longest consecutive playoff losing streak in MLB history. I'd like to see the Twins win the World Series, not make the playoffs. I don't really care about the players having the "experience" of going to the playoffs since I don't think of this as a family vacation to Disney World. The players are paid to play. The manager, coaches and front office are paid to make sure the players have the resources to be professional. The team has plenty of veteran leadership and players with playoff experience on the team.

Let's take a quick peek at the primary players on the vaunted '87 club vs. '22. I'll use the top 20 players without comparing the all the bit players. I multiplied '22 by 1.22 to get to their pace for the full season and I assumed Mahle doesn't return. C = (0.4) vs. 0.6 Laudner vs. Sanchez 1B = 4.0 vs. 4.7 Hrbek vs. Arraez 2B = 1.3 vs. 3.4 Lombardozzi vs. Polanco 3B = 2.4 vs. 2.2 Gaetti vs. Urshela SS = 3.9 vs. 4.5 Gagne vs. Correa LF = 1.2 vs. 2.1 Gladden vs. Gordon CF = 4.2 vs. 5.0 Puckett vs. Buxton RF = 2.5 vs. 2.8 Brunansky vs. Kepler DH = 0.2 vs. 1.6 Smalley vs. Miranda Tot = 16.8 vs. 25.7 SP1 = 8.1 vs. 1.9 Viola vs. Gray SP2 = 4.4 vs. 1.1 Blyleven vs. Ryan SP3 = 2.2 vs. 0.4 Straker vs. Bundy SP4 = (0.4) vs. (0.2) Smithson vs. Archer SP5 = (1.0) vs. 0.7 Niekro vs. Smeltzer Tot = 13.3 vs. 4.0 RP1 = 0.7 vs. 2.8 Reardon vs. Duran RP2 = 2.0 vs. 2.6 Berenguer vs. Lopez (combined) RP3 = 0.1 vs. 0.7 Atherton vs. Fulmer RP4 = 0.0 vs. 0.1 Frazier vs. Thielbar RP5 = (0.9) vs. (1.0) Schatzeder vs. Pagan RP6 = (1.0) vs. 0.5 Portugal vs. Jax Tot = 0.9 vs. 5.0 The '87 Twins team's positional players and lineup was mostly solid up and down, but it wasn't an asset for a playoff team. The '22 Twins are almost universally better having a higher projected bWAR in 8 of 9 spots with the positional play truly being an asset to the team in the playoffs. The '87 Twins team had an exceptionally strong top of the rotation which faded fast after Blyleven with Straker being decent at the time and the rest of the rotation being pretty poor. The '22 Twins team's rotation being "weak" is an understatement. Though the weakness is somewhat impacted by the low inning philosophy of the front office and management, there is nobody in the rotation I'd want facing prime Viola or even '87 Blyleven in a playoff game. This is one of the keys to the Twins in the playoffs in 87. Only your best starters trot out to the mound, and the Twins had a great top of the order. The '87 Twins team's bullpen was poor. If it wasn't Berenguer or Reardon on the mound, bad things were likely to happen. It was a different era, though. The bullpen in '87 pitched about 500 innings. The '22 bullpen is on pace for more like 800 innings. Regardless, the '22 team's bullpen isn't much deeper. Outside of Duran and Lopez (on the season), the value is limited. Memories of the 1987 Twins are golden, but they weren't really a great team. They were just barely good enough to make the playoffs and a far cry from the 1991 Twins, who were a very good team. So the 2022 Twins are somewhat similar, but in the wrong way. When it comes to the playoffs, great starters make all the difference IMHO.

I don't think all the Twins' players used have been the result of injury. The Twins have manufactured some the need to be creative with the MiLB to MLB shuttle due to the way the TTO pitching strategy has been implemented. The Twins are 2nd in MLB in terms of IL players behind the Reds at 31 total. The Twins are 3rd in MLB in terms of IL days spent, behind the Reds and Rays, just a tick ahead of the Cubs. The Twins are 14th in MLB in terms of IL dollars spent. This is often the place where wins lost are counted. This is where the star players are often counted. Obviously, this doesn't normalize the dollar figure with the percentage of the team salary which might also be helpful. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/2021/cumulative-team/ It might be interesting to evaluate the front office's record in relation to their peer teams in terms of all three, plus percentage of salary.

To me, it's the ability to have a feel for the game. Intuition about in game action, observation through methodical focus and knowledge gained through study. It's all about the application of knowledge to situations or being "wise" about the game. Some people just seem to have a 6th sense about things which makes it seem almost pre-cognition like. Instinct is a little different in my opinion.

I think the AFL is fine. While the tone in here suggests the AFL is only for elite prospects, I disagree with that. I see mostly either elite prospects who have lost a large portion of the season to injury or prospects who aren't elite, but who may have had a season which wasn't long enough for the front office's to accept the results as proven. A lot of the time the AFL seems to get prospects who just need more playing time. Conversely, the players who've already had longer seasons than what they're used to (college starters typically don't exceed 80-100 innings) run the risk of wearing out and breaking down with serious injuries if they're overworked so filling an expanded group of rosters might not be ideal.

I'm not nearly as big on Mahle as some other fans on the site, but I recognized what the Twins had to offer to secure an elite arm. They took a shot and it was a decent one considering the team's limitations on assets. It's easy to feel like the responses were more negative or guarded than the grades, especially if you're mediocre on the move. After all, it's not as if the conversation was all absolute ecstatic cheers in the Mahle thread.

You really feel Brusdar Graterol would have been more valuable to 2020's Cy Young runner up? Maeda having a solid (but unlucky) 2021 before going down with the UCL tear was unfortunate, but he's super cheap and has added more fWAR in just his down 2021 than Graterol has in his career so far. Graterol isn't a threat to be a starter, and that was really the big risk in dealing him. Maeda's still under contract for only $3MM next year. Meanwhile, Graterol appears to be a good middle reliever or maybe setup guy. I think Maeda was a very good trade, even considering the loss of 2022.

Hit the nail on the head here. The 1987 Twins were a pretty good team who weren't expected to make it out of the first round, but they got hot at the right time and had the ball bounce their way in route to a World Series victory. If the Twins make it into the playoffs, it's almost certainly going to be by winning the division. Cleveland just decided to roll over and die by losing 5 straight games, and the White Sox seem hapless. Now 5 games out of the Wildcard, it's not happening. Relative to the Twins, the Wildcard standings. *Seattle +7 games *Tampa Bay +6 games *Toronto +5 games Baltimore +2.5 games Minnesota Chicago -2.0 games Boston -2.5 games Aside from that, the playoffs are a different game than the regular season. Only the best players play and every game matters. Also, and I say this seemingly ever year, but it's already long past time for the AL Central to stop playing like it's entirely composed of AAAA clubs. One day, it'll happen and the AL Central will no longer be the worst division in baseball. Some team will step up, stop kicking balls instead of catching them and start playing with confidence instead of desperation.

I just don't see Winder as a legitimate starter anymore, and I've been as high on him as anybody. I don't think his shoulder can handle the workload. As far as this year, he's missed so much time he'll need to be stretched back out and there just really isn't enough time to do it and still make more than a start or two for the Twins IMHO.

Lopez since joining the Twins: 3.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 18.8% K (poor), 8.3% BB (acceptable), 1.37 WHIP (poor), .364 BABIP (very unlucky). He's pitched in 12 games and allowed runs in 3 of them, blowing 2 saves. 75% of the time, Lopez puts up a 0 so far. It's not great, for sure, and fans were expecting great, but it's a very small sample size. Lopez has 50% of his season with the Twins left, still. Duran has pitched in 50 games and allowed runs in 7 of them. 86% of the time, Duran puts up a 0 so far, and that's fairly on track for an elite closer. No runs allowed about 85% of the time.

60/40? Here's a link to a Grade the Twins' Deadline. It was nowhere near 60/40 or even 80/20. 92% A or B 6% C 1% D 0% F Here's an article about Mahle in particular. Overwhelming positivity in the comments, with a couple guarded concerns. Nobody was really negative. It's safe to say virtually the entire active poster base on the site deemed the trade acceptable to great.

Side note, really happy for Steer. What a great first game and he will always have that going forward no matter what happens.

I like the Mahle trade and still do because of the context of the situation. The Twins desperately needed a good starter who could go deep into games and take the pressure off the bullpen for the regular season, but also a starter they wouldn't fear putting on the mound if the team makes the playoffs. In addition, the Twins' farm system had taken a huge hit with their top prospects being traded off, performing poorly or injured. The prospects who have just recently graduated were also not setting the world on fire for various reasons. So, future value in the farm system was limited. Finally, the Twins were blessed with an unexpectedly weak division performance where the White Sox were not running away with the division as expected. There was blood in the water and the Twins were leading the division with a good opportunity to put some distance on before a tough September schedule. When a division looks tough with Cleveland's farm looking pretty outstanding and the White Sox have a payroll near $200MM so they're in it to win it, sometimes you have to take your shots. It may be worth noting that Mahle gave the Twins 2 - 6.0 six inning starts (162 pitches) where his fastball had normal velocities before the game where Mahle got pulled early so it's tough to blame the F.O. for Mahle's fatigue just based on that. Could there be an issue? Maybe. But, the fact Mahle made it to a 3rd start before the problem cropped up makes it tougher.

Both whole strings were provided.

Getting tired of Chief taunting me in private messages he won't make public because he can't perform basic math and doesn't like it when you shove the math down his throat. No, he deletes my posts, and runs off to hide in the private messages taunting me for weeks at a time. I doubt I'm the only one, but I will say it's annoying to be taunted by somebody I can't "Ignore" Some people aren't cut out to be moderators, and Chief is one of them.

He became the first pitcher in MLB history to throw any non-fastball pitch at 100+ mph.

Gordon started off with much less impressive exit velocities as well. He's learned to adapt his swing and approach to make better contact in general, and he's put on weight. A breakdown per 100 plate appearances and how his exit velocity almost immediately jumped up. Gordon has been hitting the ball hard for a very long time. His hard hit rates increased relatively quickly, too. 88.7 93.7 91.5 91.1 90.6 92.5 While Gordon is referred to as "slender" so is Byron Buxton. From my understanding, Gordon is 6'1" and about 180lbs right now. 180lbs is plenty for a lot of strength.

Canterino never pitched more than 99.1 innings for Rice, and he never averaged more than 6.2 innings per start, and less than 6.0 in his rookie year. The innings he pitched and batters he faced was never leading or close to leading the league. It's also been 3 years now.

Gordon's arm should be way stronger than Kepler's. I seriously don't get where this arm complaint on Gordon comes from? He was drafted as a shortstop and at the time he was throwing 90mph off the mound as a pitching prospect and mid 90s across the diamond in the infield. He was graded with a 50+ arm. Kepler has an okay arm for right field, and he's been hesitant to go all out with it since having a tear in his UCL and multiple shoulder issues. He's been below average on arm related statistics for RF his entire career.

I think I'd trade Kepler and make Gordon the starting RF next year. Celestino can handle the 4th outfielder duty. Gordon's been far above average for a hitter since early in the season. His exit velocities are elite and he's found a way to get enough angle on the ball that extra bases have been rolling in.

He had a strained UCL last year. He had a strained UCL this year. The strain he had this year eventually required surgery.