bean5302

Nick Gordon, forever labeled as utility player. Sitting at 1.3 bWAR in 259 plate appearances. Those aren't utility player numbers, folks. Gordon's pretty much a dead pull hitter, but he's been able to avoid having the shift utterly kill his numbers so far. Not sure how long that's sustainable, but right now, Gordon is producing at an every day player level greater than Max Kepler.

Gordon is top 11% of the league in expected slugging percentage, hard hit and exit velocity. Statcast actually says Gordon has been pretty unlucky this year as well. I keep expecting he's peaked, but watching him play, he's driving balls with authority. If Gordon ever figures out how to take a couple pitches, he could be a very dangerous bat. Crazy.

It's what Sanchez has done his entire career and it's what is expected of starting catchers in MLB. Sanchez is going through a rough period. Hopefully, luck will swing back his way and he'll get the numbers back up. His track record suggests it's just a matter of time.

Defense this series has been terrible, for both teams. The overturned call was ridiculous, but the Twins weren't able to get any runs across the plate until very late in the game, despite the Blue Jays fielding poorly.

From last month. He wants to start if he can. I don't blame him since a top starter makes 3x as much and gets contracts 2x as long as a top reliever... https://www.twincities.com/2022/07/07/twins-usage-of-star-rookie-pitcher-jhoan-duran-shows-eye-toward-bigger-picture/

Basically... Read the article, the comments... then comment. Pretty much everything you're commenting about has been addressed in one fashion or another.

No. There' is a 0% chance Correa opts in unless he is catastrophically injured. Correa's options were always to protect Correa at a significant risk to the Twins. It's a BAD thing if Correa exercises his options.

Even more depressing is Balazovic is pitching 2-3 innings a game at this point. He can't make it deeper before he's pulled so this is about the best you could expect if he was converted to a reliever. The most troubling aspect is he's making Tyler Duffey look like a miser when it comes to giving up the long ball. Getting hit this hard, this consistently, generally means the stuff doesn't work. Balazovic just isn't fooling anybody and a near 40% HR/FB rate is like home run derby numbers. It's a very, very dire outlook for Balazovic remaining on the 40 man roster. I can't imagine an injury could drag on this long without being noticed in pitch velocity, etc.

Gordon's been hitting the ball well lately. Actually, he's been hitting the ball well for quite a while now. The Twins nearly made a big mistake last year. It was clear the intent was to send Gordon to the AAA for the remainder of the season on August 4th last year and nobody really believed the Twins were going to keep him on the 40 man. Instead, Gordon could have easily been doing this someplace else having been written off by Falvey and Levine. Lamonte Wade and Akil Baddoo have struggled due to SSS and injuries this year, but Tyler Wells has provided solid value as a starter for the Orioles, just 0.1 WAR behind Sonny Gray, the Twins' best starter on the season. If I was watching Nick Gordon play this well elsewhere, I'd be pissed.

MLB has their issues, but so does everybody. I'm not a huge fan of Fangraphs since their updates seem a bit random. Some prospects have moved around, but all the notes are from last year. It's like rankings get updated, but there's seemingly little thought behind it.

I heard it was part of the Season Ticket Holder rewards program. One fan got chosen to be GM for a day! Falvey and Levine were furious it was legally binding and when the fan called Jim Pohlad for permission on the moves Jim agreed because Jim refuses to do that modern "zoom" meeting crap and it's not like he ever wanted to memorize Falvey or Levine's voice. They're "little people" to Jim.

Bundy has an option as well if something goes wrong. There's the potential Duran goes back to the rotation considering that's where he wants to be. Tough call there. Then there are the wildcards like Winder, Ober, and Woods-Richardson. One of my biggest complaints about the Twins' planning is that it feels like there is no plan.

You mean in the MLB.com top 10 list I posted? The MLB.com list hasn't been updated yet I don't think. It's just one source, but many others have only been partially updated as well.

While Pagan has another year of team control and isn't likely to get a raise after this year's performance, Tyler Duffey was a free agent and was making twice the money as Pagan. Duffey will hook up with somebody on a MiLB contract, but he really needs to figure out what's going on. His curveball movement has really changed from 2019 when he was dominant. It felt like he was holding his glove a different distance from his face when throwing curves vs. fastballs this year when I was watching him. There's no doubt opponents are picking up on something, and it doesn't help that Duffey has been pounding the middle of the strike zone with the four seam.

Eduardo Escobar, even if he is have a bad year. Kirilloff's lacks game power and refuses to take walks. Jeffers is no better than Sanchez. Ober's probably not a rotation piece with his injury history at this point, and even if he was, he's a back end rotation arm. Number 4-5 guys are nice to haves, but Kenta Maeda would have been far more valuable to have this year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2022-08-04&team=Twins&dh=0&season=2022 Gray got much better calls than Manoah and not 1 missed strike call was for a ball 4. The strike zone was tight last night and you can see it on the interactive grid.

I'm curious, which Falvey drafted and developed hitters were parlayed into pitchers? Pitcher Steve Hajjar and hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were part of the Mahle trade just now, but I think that's literally about it. Kenta Maeda was for pitcher Brusdar Graterol (Terry Ryan) Chris Paddack was for pitcher Taylor Rogers (Bill Smith) Sonny Gray was for pitcher Chase Petty (Derek Falvey) Michael Fulmer was for pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long (Derek Falvey) Jorge Lopez was for pitchers Cade Povich (Derek Falvey) Yennier Cano (Terry Ryan), and 2 other pitchers. Hitter Austin Martin and pitcher SWR were acquired for the best starter the Twins had developed in 15 years, Jose Berrios (Terry Ryan). Nelson Cruz was flipped for Joe Ryan, but Cruz was a free agent signing and it would have been quite the gamble to predict he would play as well as he did. Big kudos to Falvey for finding that deal, it was great, but it hardly involved his front office doing what they were paid to do. Free agency is part of the job, but not the big part which Derek Falvey was hired to address in my opinion. He was hired to build a sustainable farm system through drafting and development, especially of pitchers.

The Twins scored 3 runs. That's not going to get you a lot of wins, regardless of how much rage we want to direct at the relievers. With 4 innings left after Gray was yanked, Baldelli was going to need to go to some middle relievers and hope for the best for an inning or two. After Pagan got the shaft with an error from Correa and what really was an error for Arraez on a missed catch from 3rd, it quickly became 3-1. Can't fault Pagan for Twins fielders not being able to catch and throw. Megill has been solid this year, but by the time he left the game, what did it matter? The Twins were down 4-2 and the Blue Jays had runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Is that where people think the Twins should bring in stud relievers? No way.

I know I'm late responding to this, but Correa absolutely, totally, undeniably fell into our laps. Without the lockout, and long lockout at that, Correa isn't available for a contract the Twins are willing to make. Correa would have gotten 7-10 years and $250MM+, no doubts. The Twins were never in a million years going to do that or probably even make a call on Correa. With Spring Training reporting 2 weeks earlier, Correa desperately needed a contract fast or he'd be behind the curve and be ill-prepared for the start of the season. Marcus Semien - 11/28/21 - 7yrs $175MM vs. prediction 6yrs $138MM Javier Baez - 11/30/21 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction 5yrs $100MM Corey Seager - 12/1/21 - 10yrs $325MM vs. prediction 10yrs $305MM Trevor Story - 3/20/22 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction 6yrs $126MM Carlos Correa - 3/23/22 - 3yrs $105MM vs. prediction 10yrs $320MM <--- this does not happen unless a lot of things go wrong for Correa's offseason. A bunch of things had to go in the Twins' favor to get Correa including the need to dump Donaldson's contract which they'd been trying to do since the trade deadline in 2021. The Twins were not clearing payroll for Correa. They were clearing payroll, period, and got ahead of the Yankees to organize a big reshuffle. The Twins were in the hunt for Trevor Story, but they lost out. I suspect Falvey was hoping Story would come in much less expensive than he did and weren't able to keep pace. When Scott Boras called the Twins and offered them a March Christmas present (and probably several other teams, too), it wasn't possible to pass it up. The offer to the Twins from Boras was totally out of the blue and totally unexpected. "We had no fewer than four to five plans [for the offseason] that were running kind of concurrently," general manager Thad Levine said. "We were trying to do some revisionist history and trying to figure out, 'Where was Carlos Correa on the plans?' And I think he was somewhere above Plan A, whatever that represents, if it's Plan A-plus or something that transcended even Plan A." Correa was never on the radar.

I didn't say the strategy works, lol. It's what Falvey has seemingly been banking on, though. It really feels like Falvey has a viewpoint that pitchers are nothing more than mechanics. Gives me hope I could throw a 90mph fastball and an 80mph slider on that fast pitch booth setup outside baseball stadiums with a couple mechanical adjustments lol.

The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years. Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober. Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on. I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?

While a #1 prospect may not pan out and a #20 prospect may turn into a star, that's not usually how it goes. Teams typically value players they're looking to trade based on the types of prospects they want. Top 50, Top 100, 3 of the top 10 in a farm system, etc. Draft position (scouted tools) and actual performance generally combine to determine prospect ranking. In the MLB draft, there's a strong correlation between draft position and the likelihood a player makes the big show or becomes a star. It's open to debate how much of the success of top prospects might be helped by the kind of hands on attention and the special opportunities they might receive, the correlation is still there. Basically, prospect rankings are not infallible, but teams often use prospect rankings as player value currency because there is strong correlation there. It's not a shot in the dark.

I feel like the Twins may have been a dark horse for Rocker in an attempt to replace Petty. I don't know why I felt that way, I just really did. I think there are a couple reasons the Twins drafted the way they did. First, I think there's no way they could pass by Brooks Lee. I mean, that was a gift to a club like the Twins who value everything Lee brings to the table. After that, elite pitching is just going to be very hard to find. Second, the front office has definitely had a trend of drafting lower ranked pitchers and trying to transform them into legitimate high end prospects through mechanical changes. They seem to believe there is a opportunity there.

How many playoff victories and World Series appearances do the Twins have under Falvey? If you want to give him a pass for failing to improve the farm system while "adjusting and responding" to the competitive needs of the team, he'd need to show achievements higher than the Twins have seen in the past 20 years. I'd be the first to forgive the state of the farm system if the Twins had some playoff victories or a World Series appearance recently. In fact, the Twins might make that happen this year so it's not like the book is closed or something. I applaud Falvey for recognizing the state of the farm system and finding a way to bring in the talent to plug holes the Twins needed to address to become a legitimate playoff caliber team this year. But there need to be results along with the adjustments.

Falvey's drafts have come in mixed levels. 2017 (#1 overall), 2022 (#8 overall). 2019 (#13 overall), 2018 (#20 overall), 2021 (#26 overall). Plus the Twins had a couple supplemental first round picks in there. Overall, I feel the Twins have drafted higher than average during Falvey's reign so I don't think that really factors much into this. Brooks Lee is a top 100 prospect right now. BR has him at #49 and Fangraphs all the way up at #23, but Fangraphs writeup is admittedly rosy in regard to Lee sticking at SS. Prielipp doesn't even budge the farm. He was considered a very late 1st rounder to mid 2nd round pick and he's not going to be on anybody's top 100 lists. While he has great potential, he's a nothingburger for a farm system.