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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I love using Fangraphs for peripherals on prospects like Cabbage. Just at a glance it can sometimes tell you a legit prospects vs. a player with no MLB projection. Looking at Cabbage's peripherals reminded me a lot of Wallner at a glance and when I looked at them back to back, it sure looks like Cabbage and Wallner are essentially the same guy. Both Wallner and Cabbage are 30% better than average hitters at A+ and/or AA, but 30% better than average for outfielders with Rooker-like range and a 30-40% K rate doesn't project well.
  2. bean5302
    The players chosen for the AFL will be interesting. I think pitchers might be in short supply due to dead arms.
  3. bean5302
    I'm a fan posting on a Twins site with quite limited information. In order to put together a valuable analysis with enough merit to result in action on Falvey's employment, I'd have to devote hundreds of hours to the project and depend on the cooperation of coaches and players inside the Twins organization sharing generally withheld information about development and scouts outside the organization as well. I don't care enough about the situation to devote my time to a project like that without being compensated, a lot. At the end of the effort, I could actually come to the conclusion Falvey is doing an excellent job, I might add. Aside from that, why would I send this to Dave St. Peter? Falvey reports to Jim Pohlad. If you're looking at titles, I could see where you'd assume Falvey was a direct report of St. Peter, but they're different branches of the organizational tree. St. Peter outranks Falvey by a fair margin, but the reporting structures branch off at Pohlad. It'd be like sharing an analysis of the Director of Marketing's performance with the Chief Technology Officer. You are correct, though. St. Peter's executive assistant, Danielle Berg, would screen any such communication before St. Peter even got a glimpse of it for numerous reasons.
  4. bean5302
    I do love the optimism on how low top tier starters can be signed in terms of salary and/or years. 5/110 is not top tier starter money. It's tier 2 starter money. 5/110 didn't get Johan Santana 15 years ago and salaries have skyrocketed since then.
  5. bean5302
    Rucker's 2021 scouting report on MLB. He was ranked 209 overall and the Twins took him at 219. It' snot really much of "start" since it's only 20 plate appearances. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jake-rucker-696160 Sabato was promoted to Cedar Rapids last week. He has 4 games there and 16 plate apperances. Rookie ball still has 3 weeks left. I'd expect Petty to get a couple starts in at least, but I haven't found anything.
  6. bean5302
    For as much crap as I give Sano, he's been hitting the ball pretty well since the All Star Break. I just wish that translated to a positive WPA. Sano's been good in low leverage (195 PA) , horrible in medium leverage (153 PA) and excellent in high leverage (57 PA) situations this year. Low 195 PA - wRC+ 118 Med 153 PA - wRC+ 79 High 50 PA - wRC+ 140 In case folks are wondering, the low/med/high leverage performance has been somewhat consistent over Sano's career. Another trend is RISP strikeout rate. It's increased over the years. Back in 2015, it was actually under 30%. Sano was a very dangerous hitter with RISP. It's steadily climbed to its zenith of 38%+ over the past 3 years. He's frustrating to analyze because there is so much noise in his data.
  7. bean5302
    Lots of people have the skill set to compare results between competing products or services, especially when there is data to review. Drafting and development (how have the draft picks advanced and played relative to their peers?) Maintaining team control (has the team protected their interests in players?) Trade results (what value did the team receive for its players?) Free Agency Signings (how well did free agent players perform relative to cost) Team Results (how well did the front office address the team's needs?) Do you have the skillset to play major league baseball? If not, how can you make posts judging a player's performance? Same answer. By comparing that player to their peers. The process isn't different than choosing a good toilet paper, the best pizza or the best car. The only thing that changes is the dataset you're using.
  8. bean5302
    A = .319 (Gipson-long .369 vs. Twins A- pitchers with 10+ IP .319) A+= .305 (Gipson-long .421 vs. Twins A+ pitchers with 10+ IP .300) AA = .302 AAA = .302 MLB = .281 All the leagues are all showing typical BABIP results over thousands of innings played. Low-A's elevated BABIP across the league may reflect some defensive hiccups, but there's no evidence Gipson-long has been the victim of poor defense which just didn't result in an error being charged.
  9. bean5302
    Honestly, my feeling was you weren't questioning the validity of Viola's comment, you were questioning the credibility of Viola suggesting an ulterior motive behind his tweet and a credibility issue due to lack of qualification. I didn't say anything about Falvey, Levine or Baldelli not being qualified to do their jobs or my personal opinions on them. For some reason I had it stuck in my head that Viola was a pitching coach for the Mets. Comments like these where coaches/players potentially burn bridges are still kinda rare so people are going to latch on to them.
  10. bean5302
    BABIP doesn't inflate because of errors. In A+ this year for the 165 pitchers with 50+ innings, the median BABIP is .305.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins don't have the arms to compete without making a lot of noise in free agency. Since the Twins are filled with unproven guys, underperformers or even outright roster holes, it's tough to predict how they approach 2022 in a division with two teams likely to be in full on windows wide open mode. (Detroit and Chicago). The Royals might not be far behind with way more elite talent in their system than the Twins.
  12. bean5302
    I'm not sure Viola is saying analytics are junk, just maybe that he feels the Twins organization is being run by Lt. Commander Data without a good sense of the non-tangible (yet to have an analytical value associated) factors. Innuendo about Violas motives and lack of qualification to criticize the Twins' organization without credible evidence is just a veiled personal attack. Viola is a pitching coach for an MLB team and has been active in professional baseball as a player and coach for 40 years. I'm sure he has, literally, dozens of close contacts and hundreds of acquaintences across MLB with opinions on the Twins' front office and performance. The amount of context people are adding to a tiny tweet to suit their own personal agenda is impressive, yet expected. I don't know exactly what Viola meant. Sounds like Twins Daily should follow up with him?
  13. bean5302
    There are 0 World Series teams in the past decade who haven't been using analytics. All 30 MLB teams have analytics deparments with multiple employees. Football and baseball have nothing in common from a game play perspective. Baseball may be a team sport, but the game is 90% 1 vs 1. In football, it's never 1 vs 1.
  14. bean5302
    Lots of information about some very anticipated Twins prospects in that interview. Wes Johnson definitely comes across as intensely confident in his approach and willing to take a lot of credit for results.
  15. bean5302
    I don't have a problem with Gipson-long being left out of the top 30. There is a huge amount of mid-level talent in the Twins' system and it makes it hard to rank players. While the strikeout and walk numbers are very good, he gives up a ton of hits. The stats on batted balls is pretty sketchy from the minors, but it looks like he's a high ground ball rate pitcher which is nice. The ERA is suffering because of a high BABIP. That indicates one of two things. One, his stuff doesn't play and batters are barreling him up frequently or two, he's just been unlucky at every level so far. Here's hoping the changeup turns into something nice for him and he's able to get some starts in without the red flag on the hits/BABIP.
  16. bean5302
    Video scouting report from June of this year indicated his velocity was 90-92mph on the fastball, touching 93.
  17. bean5302
    I'm not opposed to keeping Albers into next season as a swing man at low cost if he pitches well. I just don't want to see him slotted into the regular rotation as a direct replacement for an outgoing pitcher.
  18. bean5302
    I can't see why only Twins prospects would be impacted by the missed season. I think Winder is probably the most likely candidate for missing time due to the missed season. Woods-Richardson... we don't really know what's going on, we're just assuming he missed a bunch of time while in Tokyo. I'm not exactly sure why he didn't pitch even in relief after the Puerto Rico game was canceled. Seems like either something was wrong or he got he shaft. Setting the commonplace of pitcher UCL injuries in baseball these days aside, I am concerned the Falvey/Levine obsession with velocity could contribute to a higher rate or the injuries in general. It's not something where I'd expect there is going to be enough data to definitively say.
  19. bean5302
    Happy to see the Twins beat a good team and especially one from Sconnie, haha. That said, it's a bummer Escobar is sidelined on the IL with a pulled hamstring. Actually, considering how he plays, it was a good thing for the Twins he wasn't on the field. Nice game from Albers. Not entirely sure what the Twins have planned for him. It makes me a little nervous they could be planning to replace Pineda with him.
  20. bean5302
    Things certainly have been rough for a few of the Twins top prospects recently. Cavaco is flirting with a sub .600 OPS and made his 20th error of the year tonight. Austin Martin and Balazovic are struggling as well with even Miranda cooling way off, too. Woods-Richardson isn't even playing and Winder, Duran and Canterino are all shut down at the moment with Lewis being out for the season. There's only one top 20 prospect for the Twins who's really having a good August and that's Joe Ryan. Woof.
  21. bean5302
    Terrible plate discipline. 6.3% BB, 29.9% K. Looks like Rooker with less power and plate discipline, but more speed.
  22. bean5302
    Surgeons are not going to perform a reconstructive surgery if there's no reason to do it. If it looks like a very mild strain with minimal tearing, especially if it's in a good location, it may be expected for Duran to make a full recovery without surgery. If Duran later needs TJ, it just means he would have blown out the new UCL anyway. Rehab is super important. Strengthening the elbow and forearm so the UCL isn't taking on more stress than the ligament can handle in the first place is key to avoiding future surgery.
  23. bean5302
    2011. Span was the starting CF. Kubel was the starting LF. Cuddyer was the starting RF. Revere was the backup who could handle CF.
  24. bean5302
    Honestly, it probably doesn't matter much what I think of the front office. I don't expect Jim to give me a call and seek my advice on whether or not he should keep Falvey and Levine employed. I don't really understand why people feel 2017 was a big product of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The only notable position player they brought in was Jason Castro. They brought in Hector Santiago to the pitching staff and he pitched poorly. It was basically the same team as 2016 with the same manager. It's not like Falvey's name on the plaque outside the GM's office door magically transformed the team. Pythagorean's showed +9 wins between 2016 and 2017 so that's undoubtedly a lot of the improvement, along with steps forward from the younger players inherited from the previous regime(s). I expect Falvey and Levine are on a very hot seat right now. Their drafts have been mediocre to poor based on performace so far and next year is likely to be how the ownership views the cast offs they inherited, and what happens with the 40 man roster this year like do they leave Gordon and Palacios off? Chargois - 40.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 Reed - 9.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 9.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 Wells - 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 (could be a starter) Baddoo - 339 PA, .261/.327/.458 OPS+ 118 (plays adequate center field) Wade - 261 PA, .248/.317/.521 OPS+ 121 Now, I don't expect guys like Chargois and Reed will be successfull long term, and as relievers, they don't add a ton of value even if they pitch decent. They won't be the players who make or break Falvey. Wells, Baddoo and Wade very well could. So could Palacios or Gordon if they find success at the MLB level on another team. I guarantee you if Palacios or Gordon manage to put together a serviceable MLB season at SS somewhere outside the Twins, Falvey will have his walking papers next year, and if Wells turns into a middle of the rotation starter, Falvey is going to have to rely upon his drafts to save him and as of today, right now, they're looking pretty rough.
  25. bean5302
    So long as you pretend Buxton's 2021 isn't massively skewing his career numbers and pretend Fangraphs doesn't exist. Assuming a 150 game played season (which Buxton will never hit) fWAR vs. bWAR, if Buxton played 150G each season 2019 = 4.7 (wRC+ 111) vs. 5.2 (OPS+ 116) 2020 = 4.6 (wRC+ 118) vs. 8.1 (OPS +126) Somehow, despite a pretty small jump in OPS+, Buxton's value skyrocketed in 2020 per game played if you use Baseball Reference's bWAR. It doesn't make sense, especially considering Fangraphs' UZR/150 is +15.7 in 2019 and +10.6 in 2020. Both are well within range of his career numbers which were almost always between 10-15.
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