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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Baldelli has mentioned the TTO deal more than once this year. I do also think the Twins have implemented soft pitch limits (seems around 80) for MiLB prospects to try and protect them from wearing down. I don't think it's a good thing and I don't see it working for the team at all.
  2. bean5302
    Dylan Bundy went 6 consecutive starts without giving up more than 2 earned runs and had 1 bad start in his previous 9 games. He's making $4MM this year. If he's the guy who fans expect to carry the team... In any case, Bundy gave up 4 of his 7 earned in the first inning and the bullpen is not ready to go in inning 1. Baldelli did what he thought he had to, and probably what I would have done and let Bundy go back out there for the 5th. It was playing with fire, but the bullpen has been taxed recently.
  3. bean5302
    Gotta make it to the post season first, but yeah, I don't know if the general rules apply to this Twins team either. Their futility against the good teams isn't part of a normal dataset.
  4. bean5302
    Wallner does seem to be quite a bit faster than advertised. His first triple was a fielding error more than a triple, but his triple for the cycle on 9/1 was legit. Haven't seen tonight's effort. Also, for a guy who seemed to have a lot of detractors on the site because of a short very cold start to his stint in AAA, he's hitting .247 with an .829 OPS overall at this point. Good thing we went out and got Billy Hamilton so Baldelli could start him in the outfield. In any case, I hope Wallner will have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training next year at this pace. Julien continues to hit in AA. Not sure he has anything to prove at that level anymore. Brooks Lee has really done everything the organization could hope for at this point. I expect he'll spend next year at AA if he keeps up the pace. Balazovic must feel really good after that effort. It's the very first time this year he's gone more than 4.0 innings (seriously), though it certainly seemed like he should have been given the opportunity to throw another inning a couple times, but that could be the Falvey Philosophy to prevent pitchers from accumulating value.
  5. bean5302
    I wish fans would appreciate what Ryan is instead of setting an impossible bar for him to reach as an unreasonable expectation. He's an MLB caliber starting pitcher right now. That's pretty outstanding considering what he's had to do to prove he could hold his own with the tools he has to work with.
  6. bean5302
    I won't call them "idiots" but I think their philosophy/strategy is very poor.
  7. bean5302
    Offf... great article with a painful reality. No team is as bad as the Twins have played against good teams. That's a big problem. Statistically, it's not possible for Minnesota to play like this on talent alone, which means the issue is probably less with the players and more with management and philosophy.
  8. bean5302
    Wanna pay double for your tickets? LOL. Seriously, though. MLB did shorten commercials a couple years ago already. Players still take 2 minutes to shift from batting to fielding. A left fielder would be a good example. If they leave the inning at 3rd base, jog back into the dugout, swap out their helmet and gloves for a fielding card, glove and hat, grab a drink of water and run back out to left field. That takes a couple minutes. If they have to make an emergency bathroom run, a little more. So all you'd see are the broadcasters talking about the game and no action anyway.
  9. bean5302
    Glad the Twins won! Funny the article mentioned all the negativity towards Correa recently. I was thinking I might come in here and point out how the comments were undoubtedly missing the trash talking of Correa haha. Anyway, seems like he's right on track for a 4+ fWAR season and he's already at 4.0 bWAR.
  10. bean5302
    I think Ryan is exactly what I expected him to be. A solid #4-5 guy with a ceiling (unlikely to reach it) as a #3. Ryan's offspeed and breaking pitches are pretty limited and that was known when the Twins acquired him. He's a solid back end starter right now.
  11. bean5302
    Yeah, all the acronyms and abbreviations can seem pretty ridiculous. Different sites use different factors. It's honestly a big pain to learn them. wOBA = weighted on base average. It's basically a stat designed to combine everything a player does offensively into on base percentage equivalent. .300 stinks, .325 is okay, .350 is good, .375 is great .400 is elite. Something like that. xwOBA = the expected wOBA a player should have based on batted balls. Essentially, how hard and far balls were hit. It tries to take out the "balls with eyes" factor. wRC+ = weighted runs created plus, which is basically a really complicated, and slightly more accurate version of the much older and still usually very good OPS (on base + slugging percentage), but wRC+ is adjusted for park factors. It's just a rating which compares total expected offensive output relative to other batters where 100 is league average.
  12. bean5302
    Being built for October means starting pitching to me. While I think Gray has proven he's a good pitcher this year, there has to be a threat the best starter on the team could corner an opponent against a wall by tossing 7 or 8 great innings, leaving only the elite bullpen to close out the win. Even if Gray had an immaculate game with 18 strikeout on 48 pitches going, Baldelli would pull him at the end of 6.0 innings in favor of Emilio Pagan instead of letting Gray face the order a 3rd time.
  13. bean5302
    Won't it be great if Varland pitches really well down the stretch and the Twins make the playoffs just to watch Varland get the axe because Falvey didn't want to burn an option?
  14. bean5302
    I understand what you're saying there and I agree with you 100%. This failure is on the front office, 100% if Baldelli is just essentially following absolute orders he disagrees with. It's on Baldelli to push back or quit if he disagrees with the philosophy. It's his career and this will be tied to him now. He either lacks confidence to stand up for what he believes or he believes in what appears to be a foolish philosophy. If there aren't absolute orders and if the plan isn't working, it's time to ratchet up the number of innings the starters pitch like every other team in baseball with better or worse rotations than the Twins. There is no good reason for 3 of our 4 main starters to rank in the bottom 6% of all starters in baseball in terms of pitches thrown per start when the bullpen can't handle the strain. Adapt or die.
  15. bean5302
    The Twins rank 20th in home attendance average this year, ahead of several teams more likely to make the playoffs and 2nd in the AL Central behind the White Sox's 24.6k. Minnesota 22.6k Baltimore 17.7k Cleveland 17.2k Tampa Bay 14.0k The Twins were coming off a last place finish and a long lockout with almost no time to ramp up season ticket sales in a city which has been rocked by violence, crime and safety issues over the past 2 years. The deck was stacked against filling season ticket holder seats and it shows. Early year attendance was horrid. April = 17.5k May = 19.4k Jun = 24.9k Jul = 28.0k ---------------- Twins lose division lead. Aug = 24.2k (Competing with Vikings, State Fair, Renaissance Festival) All in all, the Twins seem to be holding their own in attendance. Winning is one part of the equation. The game day experience is what really matters. The Pohlads put forth a major commitment to winning this year with a payroll blowing their historical max out of the water at $140MM. Right in line with where the team should be on an annual basis.
  16. bean5302
    Since I'm a season ticket holder, I'm going to show up. I'm also going to spend money on concessions, enjoy the ambiance and have fun with friends (if I can get them to go, haha). I go to the game to have fun, and it's fun going to the game regardless of whether or not the Twins win.
  17. bean5302
    A good manager should adapt and push back on the front office if the strategy is failing or quit at the end of the season. At this point, Baldelli not pushing back on the strategy and managing in a different manner shows he either believes in the failing philosophy or he lacks the confidence to push back. My guess is he truly believes in the philosophy which I don't.
  18. bean5302
    Sanchez in August and September .222/.309/.403 wRC+ 107. Season wOBA .333 (average), xwOBA .355 (good) Historical his wOBA and xwOBA have been right in line with each other. Sanchez is above average with pitch framing this year +1 runs, but of course, Jeffers is better at that with +3 runs in fewer innings. Sanchez is well above average with controlling the run game at 33% caught stealing vs. 25% league average. It comes from Sanchez having a strong arm and fast pop time. Jeffers is well below average with controlling the run game at 17% caught stealing vs. 25% league average. His pop time is league average and his arm is weak. His weakness in the run game is well known and teams actively take advantage of his limitations. Sanchez goes approximately 23 innings between having a passed ball or wild pitch. Jeffers is better at 25 innings. Both are slightly better than league average, ranking 21st and 19th, respectively, of 42 catchers with 400+ innings this year. To put it bluntly, Sanchez is a solid defensive catcher this year with no obvious flaws in his catching game. He's universally better than average. His bat comes with a lot of power, but a lot of swing and miss, too. He's about a league average hitter. That said, he's a free agent after this year. I doubt Leon is better than Caleb Hamilton. Jeffers is the only legitimate MLB caliber catcher we have on the roster beyond this year, and I'm not sure he's a legitimate starter. So beyond this year, the Twins are in very rough shape. This year, the Twins need Sanchez to stay healthy and they'll be "okay."
  19. bean5302
    The only chance Varland has to be a success story is if Falvey, Levine and Baldelli aren't with the organization anymore. No starting pitcher is ever going to be a "success story" with this front office running the show and destroying all the value they can along the way.
  20. bean5302
    This article couldn't be further off. Other teams rely on pitches to determine starts, not TTO. The TTO concept being implemented in such a hard set fashion is seemingly unique to the Twins. The Twins set an all time MLB record for the longest time into the season for a pitcher to hit 100 innings. - That is not a trend or similar to other teams. It's an all time record (which makes it exceptional). Archer, Gray and Bundy all rank at or near the absolute bottom of MLB starters in terms of their average appearance length. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.1 innings. Twins = 20% (Ryan = 5.1) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 6.0 innings. Twins = 0% Pitches per game? Same story. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 85 pitches per start. Twins = 20% (Joe Ryan = 87) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 90 pitches per start. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 94 pitches per start. Twins = 0% Percentile rank by pitches per start. Joe Ryan 35% (78/120) Sonny Gray 6% (113/120) Dylan Bundy 4% (115/120) Chris Archer 0% (120/120) The Twins are not part of a baseball trend. The Twins are unique. Other teams allow starters to keep pitching when they're effective. The Twins do not. The Twins pull pitchers who are pitching well because of the false pretense of a major drop off in performance related to TTO and the organization seems to be refusing to alter it's seemingly failed strategy.
  21. bean5302
    Yes. Varland was pulled too early, putting the Twins into a situation the bullpen didn't need to be in and the Twins lost. I don't have any faith in Falvey, Levine and Baldelli at this point.
  22. bean5302
    There have been articles released about it over the years and it seems like mangameslost.com may have the data, but it's a paid site.
  23. bean5302
    Very exciting for Varland to get called up! I hope he views the Yankees as just another team and not so pensively as fans on this site. If he goes out and shows command of his pitches, he'll have a good shot at giving the Twins a solid start. Sometimes I do wonder if the Twins psyche themselves out when facing New York. The Yankees average 5.0 runs per game at home and 4.2 on the road. Less than a run per game per difference, but it feels like the expectation is they'll hang 10 on the Twins.
  24. bean5302
    The Twins, White Sox and Guardians are running a different kind of 3 legged race, but still just as awkward looking as the normal kind. Except, sometimes, fans just want to put the burlap sack over their heads haha. At least it feels like the rest of the central is intent on keeping the the division wide open so fans can just enjoy the excitement of the potential for the playoffs
  25. bean5302
    I don't think all the Twins' players used have been the result of injury. The Twins have manufactured some the need to be creative with the MiLB to MLB shuttle due to the way the TTO pitching strategy has been implemented. The Twins are 2nd in MLB in terms of IL players behind the Reds at 31 total. The Twins are 3rd in MLB in terms of IL days spent, behind the Reds and Rays, just a tick ahead of the Cubs. The Twins are 14th in MLB in terms of IL dollars spent. This is often the place where wins lost are counted. This is where the star players are often counted. Obviously, this doesn't normalize the dollar figure with the percentage of the team salary which might also be helpful. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/2021/cumulative-team/ It might be interesting to evaluate the front office's record in relation to their peer teams in terms of all three, plus percentage of salary.
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