bean5302

I don't even need to read the article. This one isn't remotely close. Rod Carew.

To be frank, I consider the Twins Hall of Fame to be pretty embarrassing. It shows how pathetic the ownership of this franchise has been. Basically anybody with more than 3 years on the team is a shoe-in. The number of truly great Twins players is pretty short.

Yep. Greene was a potential shortstop. In addition, Greene had better control and is quite a bit taller than Petty with less a less violent delivery. I think the reports out say Petty honestly has a better slider, but Greene had 3 legit pitches where Petty's changeup was kind of a question mark. The top of the 2017 draft has largely been a bust to this point. Royce Lewis (AA), poor performance Hunter Greene (AAA), mediocre performance MacKinzie Gore (AAA), poor performance Brendan McKay (MLB), 1 year -0.2 bWAR Kyle Wright (MLB), 4 years, -0.5 bWAR career, best season 0.3 bWAR (2020) Austin Beck (AAA), poor performance Pavin Smith (MLB), 2 years, 0.0 bWAR career, best season 0.2 bWAR (2020) Adam Hasely (MLB), 3 years, 1.5 bWAR career, best season 1.8 bWAR (2019) Keston Hiura (MLB), 3 years, 0.6 bWAR career, best season 1.9 bWAR (2019) Jo Adell (MLB), 2 years, -1.2 bWAR career, best season 0.3 bWAR (2021) None of the top 10 picks has much accomplishment to their name. None of them have produced more than a single positive bWAR season and all of them have a negative bWAR season if they've made it to MLB.

We'll know how his pitches play quickly this year. The true aces out there generally move up through the minors very quickly. If Petty's fastball and slider are as good as advertised and he can throw the changeup, he should arrive 2024 at the latest. It'll be very exciting to see how his performance looks against a far higher level of competition in Ft. Myers than he was seeing in high school.

I think one thing is pretty certain, we'll know a lot more about Alcala and Celestino this year. Honestly, I think this is a make or break season for Falvey and his staff. Lewis, Cavaco, Larnach, Rooker. At least a couple of those guys need to really show up. One of either Martin or Woods-Richardson, too. Then there are the pitching prospects. We need a couple of Falvey's drafted prospects to perform at the MLB level as well.

Probably not is my line of thinking. Certainly not until he proves he's fully recovered from the injury and is back to being effective as a closer. Even after that point, I'd probably shop him around to see if he can bring good trade value. Only if it looks like Rogers isn't going to bring much back, but still is showing his elite form would I consider extending him. What would an extension look like for Rogers if he shows he's fully returned to form? I'd say 3-4 years and $45-55MM or so? Comps like Craig Kimbrel and Kanley Jansen went for much more. Will Smith went for 3 years and $40MM, but wasn't truly in Rogers' class. Even if the Twins were interested in extending Rogers, they may very walk balk at the price.

What the does Larnach have to do with 2B depth? I addressed depth for the whole position player roster. If ice cream sandwiches are better with Neopolitan ice cream than chocolate chip vanilla ice cream, then clearly Arraez isn't needed. However, if you like chocolate ice cream in your ice cream sandwich, then clearly, you can't count on the Twins' depth at 2B.

It doesn't matter if they're impressive to you or not. This is the depth the Twins have, and depth isn't supposed to be impressive. Depth is supposed to be adequate, which is why it's "depth." If teams are playing with impressive depth and outright holes at other positions, they're doing it wrong.

Liriano would have been exposed as the "throw strikes never" pitcher he was, but had he been able to avoid the injury in 2006, I also believe the Twins would likely have won the World Series. The UCL replacement was always going to happen with his throwing style and I don't believe it made a huge impact on his overall career. It was a nice, solid career, but he just didn't have control. Like hitters with big leg kicks, other crazy motions like Liriano's very unorthodox follow through lend themselves to critique where there are problems. Liriano's problem was not being able to throw strikes coupled possibly with long term durability if he kept the same slider he had pre TJ. In 2006, hitters simply didn't have a chance. There were no good MLB scouting reports and the velocity and movement of his slider gave him the name Liria-NO for hitters. Fun times.

I do like seeing the Twins active like this in the international market. I believe it's important to the pipeline to look at all avenues!

I do think Arraez could play shortstop... but he'd have to show up in great condition to pull it off. His weight limits his range and makes his knees injury prone. If he really conditioned himself, I believe his arm is strong enough and he could potentially handle the spot. As he was last year and previous years? No. This is similar to how I feel about Miguel Sano. He has all the tools necessary to be an outstanding 3rd baseman... but it would require dropping 60lbs.

C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, Rortvedt 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Rooker, Sano, Larnach Donaldson, Garver 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, Miranda 3B Depth - Donaldson, Miranda, Arraez SS Depth - ?, Gordon, Arraez, Palacios LF Depth - Rooker, Celestino, Larnach, Cave CF Depth - Buxton, Celestino, Cave RF Depth - Kepler, Celestino, Larnach, Cave DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson, Rooker There's a lot of depth... and that doesn't take Martin into consideration who Falvey talked about potentially using as the starting shortstop in 2022. Arraez is a 2B, which is where Martin is expected to end up according to the scouting community. We have more than enough depth there. Trading a starting 2B caliber player who is blocked at a position like Arraez, if he brings in good value, puts both Arraez and the Twins in a better position on paper.

Ober and Ryan did pretty damn well, man. Ober was arguably as good as Berrios over the last 10 starts. Joe Ryan pitched very well, too. Solid back end of the rotation arms at least with a ceiling of mid rotation... just the like much more expensive, and likely not as good veterans in this article.

It's important to consider contract values for these proposals and whether or not they fit within the Twins plans. I have a tendency to agree with the idea the Twins could use some bullpen help, but a lot depends on Taylor Rogers and whether or not he's recovered from nasty middle finger knuckle sprain/tear. The damage to Rogers' pulley tendon was pretty severe. I expect he'd know by now if the surgery was inevitable so I'm assuming he recovered because we've heard nothing about a surgery. Then again, with the lockout, not sure how that works. Colin McHugh 2 years $14MM Ryan Tepara (does not really throw sliders) is probably 1yr $3MM Brad Boxberger 1 year 3MM (similar to Duffey) Fangraphs bullpen projection with theoretical 40 man roster if the CBA was intact in bold. Rogers Duffey Alcala Thielbar Garza, Jr. Stashak Moran Cotton It's not a bullpen which would be expected to excel, and we're certainly weak for depth, but it would probably be adequate for a mediocre team. I'd think picking up Tepera is the best option to give a little more stability without over-spending. McHugh will be too expensive to justify unless Rogers was out for the season. Boxberger generated 0.8 fWAR last season... but over his past 7 seasons it looks like this: 0.0, (0.3), 0.3, (0.4), 0.0, 0.0, 0.8. The track record is too long to ignore the likelihood he's just not going to add value and there will probably be waiver claims and trade targets better.

Got it. Young pitchers who have dominated high minors are no good. Gotta get rid of them and sign some old re-treads to show the Twins are going to compete. Where's Tim Lincecum? We should get him out of retirement! I mean, the Twins only had the 2nd oldest pitching staff in the American League last year... they should go for number 1!

I'd have agreed with this plan... 3 years ago, but just like another thread which proposed mid/back end rotation options, we don't need them and they're counter-productive to the Twins regardless of intent. I threw this together quick. The orange double line is the issue with Greinke. It's the rolling 3 year simple average of his ERAs. Peak Greinke started in 2009 and ended 2015, an excellent run of 7 years. His rolling ERA has been climbing pretty steadily since 2015 as has his rolling FIP, which paints a nice picture of Greinke's trend. I'd say his FIP will probably be somewhere near where it was last year. Maybe a tick better, but over 4.00 in all likelihood. I don't see Greinke as a good fit for the Twins when Minnesota will probably need to find a spot for Winder, Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Ober, Bundy, and Ryan in the rotation with Strotman, Jax and Dobnak filling spot start/injury replacement roles. I also don't think Greinke would be remotely interested in playing for a team which doesn't appear to be serious about competing in 2022 and there's long since been a rumor Greinke has a particular dislike of the Twins. The Twins need to aim higher or figure out what they already have in 2022.

I'm vehemently opposed to this line of thinking. The Twins have 2-3 back end guys slated for the rotation already. Bundy, Ober and Ryan. We only have 2 rotation openings at the top of the rotation. We have no space for middle/back end arms. We also have spot start, emergency depth guys like Strotman, Dobnak and Jax. Back end guys do nothing but block prospects who are likely better than the guys proposed above. Winder - Floor #4. Ceiling #1. ETA Opening 2022 Woods-Richardson - Floor #5. Ceiling #2. ETA late 2022 Canterino - Floor #4. Ceiling #2. ETA 2023 Balazovic - Floor #5. Ceiling #3. ETA Early 2022 Duran - Floor RP. Ceiling #2. ETA Late 2022. Stockpiling serviceable veterans while our prospects grow gray beards and we lose out on their best years is the Twins' Way, but I would propose the Twins either go for it now and get the top of the rotation arms they need to compete or don't go for it and find out whether they already have everything they need. Btw, just since I saw this the other day, Maeda is almost certainly out for all of 2022 at this point as he doesn't expect to potentially return until at least September based on his comments recently in Tokyo, Japan. He wasn't expected to even start catching balls until scheduled Spring Training time. https://www.newsdirectory3.com/kenta-maeda-what-are-your-thoughts-on-the-unique-web-of-the-2022-grab-in-the-turtle-shell-full-count/

Jeffers vs. Garver. Batting right against southpaws. wRC+ 99 vs. wRC+ 97 Batting right against righties. wRC+ 73 vs. wRC+ 168 Jeffers couldn't hit righties last year at all while Garver destroyed them. Both catchers were league average against southpaws. Jeffers was entirely exposed and overmatched at the MLB level last year, and while he hit well enough in the minors, it wasn't like he was setting the world on fire down there. The scouting reports found a weakness in Jeffers' plate approach after his small sample of plate appearances in 2020 and his start in 2021. Jeffers will need to adjust his pitch recognition and potentially his swing to make up for his current weaknesses if he wants to remain anything beyond a depth catcher. His defense is average so it's not like he'd be looked at as a defensive wizard saving runs with his mitt, but he's young enough to improve there as well.

I swear... the Byron Buxton vs. Mike Trout comparisons are so ludicrous. Byron Buxton is not a prospect. He's a 7 year veteran who has never once, in his entire career, legitimately approached a single year of Trout's full season production. Ever. Not remotely within reasonable sight. It's as if Buxton had never suffered an injury in his career... You know why a full season matters? Regression. Adjustments to how pitchers approach hitters. The players who play full seasons need to deal with those things and they matter enormously. Buxton never deals with those things because he's on the field for 2 weeks to a month at a time. Buxton's 24 game start in 2021 was similar to 24 game spans by a half dozen recent Twins players with names like Escobar and Santana, but players like Escobar (who was nearly as valuable at SS as Buxton in CF) were never compared to Mike Trout. Joe Mauer's start to 2009 throws a bunch of shade on Buxton's start in 2021, yet Mauer is certainly not considered the greatest player to ever play MLB. Buxton's 24 games after he returned in late August after his 24 game hot start in April? .202/.250/.394, but nutso Twins fans blamed his lingering injury for that despite him raking in AAA before being recalled. It wasn't regression! It couldn't be! Buxton was a .350 hitter for sure! Oh, his (insert one of 10 possible injuries) must be still affecting him is the apologist excuse for Buxton as his zealot-like supporters wilt away in the sunlight. The zealots just waiting for the next 10 game hot streak when they can bloom again and start posting away about how Buxton is the best player in MLB history. Btw, multiplying small game samples of WAR is sketchy when trying to make MVP claims, especially when so much of that player value is based on defensive metrics which do not really smooth out before at least 1/2 a year is played for premium positions. Buxton's fWAR declined from 2.7 to 2.1 before his last 10 games of the season, where it jumped from 2.1 to 4.2... That means, if you project Buxton's last 10 games to 150, Buxton was actually producing at a 32 fWAR over a 150 game pace! Whoa! That's worth $250MM per year according to Fangraphs! MVP! Unanimous first ballot HoF!!! 10 years and $50MM per year! Better than Mike Trout!!! (yes, this is how Twins fans making the Mike Trout claims actually look to the rest of baseball fans. Like raving town idiots.) In my opinion, Byron Buxton will likely never play a full season or qualify for a championship title in his career. Byron Buxton will likely never come close to winning an MVP, even if he plays a full season because he's a 5-6 WAR full season player. That's perennial All Star level if he actually played more than 2.5 months in the first half of the season, and it should be good enough. When Buxton manages to even make an All Star Game (he's never been an All Star in his 7 year career), I'll start recognizing him more. At least fans should wait for an All Star Game for a 7 year veteran before making comparisons to a player who was a first ballot Hall of Famer by age 28 and is on the path to being the greatest player in MLB history.

Impressive you got Kris Bryant for 5yrs and $80MM while Buxton fought you for 8yrs and $190MM haha

It's a catch-22. Because of the anti-trust exemption, if the MLBPA negotiates with MLB to create the CBA, then it's okay. If MLB does it on their own, it can be viewed as unfair labor practice and collusion which absolutely would be a problem in the courts. MLB unilaterally setting rules which were viewed as directly manipulating the free agent market was why Judge Sotomayer ruled against owners in 1995 and blocked the teams from playing with replacement players. Without a union, MLB has to be very careful about compensation and work condition rules. This whole mess boils down to the MLBPA having exceptionally lousy leadership.

He's not as rough vs. lefties as you make him out to be. Of the 92 left handed hitters in MLB with 170+ plate appearances vs left handed pitching, the median wRC+ was 85. Luis Arraez's career wRC+ against lefties is wRC+ 88. Certainly not good, but not "horrible" at least in my opinion.

Arraez was 22-24 while Buxton was 25-27. Arraez and Buxton have similar bWAR values (6.0 vs. 6.3), games played (245 vs 260) and plate appearances (966 vs. 936) through their age 22-24 seasons. The obsession with Buxton around here...

Then the front office deals with the failure. Not making the trade is just as bad as making a bad trade.

The NFL has done it previously in 1987 and threatened to do it again in 2011. If there is no CBA in place, the "Basic Agreement" which governs contracts under the CBA becomes void. I'm sure the MLBPA would sue. In the United States, you can sue for whatever you want, trillions even. It doesn't mean the MLBPA would be successful. In the meantime, unless an injuction was imposed based on a complaint filed for unfair labor practices by the MLBPA, the league would continue to operate and the players would continue earning nothing while they watch their permanent jobs start being earned by the former MiLB players. Any lawsuit would have to be ended as a condition of any future CBA MLB would agree to so it's pretty moot. In such a scenario, the MLBPA would break in days or weeks. While it's possible the MLBPA would be dissolved, it's unlikely because even MLB wouldn't want a total free for all. It's more likely the players would have a new set of rules much less favorable crammed down their throats as the season goes on and fans continue going to games. You may disagree, but that's how I see things.