bean5302

That's not exactly true. He hasn't been getting to the plate in formal competition, but he was competing at the Alternate Site last year and he was taking batting practice late this season. Obviously, we can't see whether or not there is actually an improvement because of the lack of competition, but there should be the expectation he's not quite that rusty.

I've been pretty critical of Lewis' numbers in AA in the past, but it's just not possible to know what he's going to become with so little track record on him. It's tough to decide he doesn't have what it takes after playing AA at age 20.

I had a response quote of this, but it wasn't really accurate based on huge differences in WAR values. Also, I feel like catcher WAR has recently been heavily tweaked by Fangraphs? The WAR numbers I'm seeing seem to be much higher than Baseball Reference (driven by defense in many cases) I think Posey retiring now in what seems like a personal decision may cost him the HoF while Mauer will get in because of the concussion essentially forcing him out of baseball. Joe Mauer 52.5 fWAR, 55.2 bWAR. 1x MVP, 6x All Star Buster Posey 57.6 fWAR, 44.9 bWAR. 1x MVP, 7x All Star, 1 RoY, 3x World Series Champion Russell Martin with 55.1 fWAR and 38.8 bWAR. 4x All Star Brian McCann WAR is 54.5 fWAR and 32.0 bWAR. 7x All Star, 1x World Series Champion Grandal is still playin at a32 38.0 fWAR and 21.7 bWAR. 2x All Star. Posada is at 40.4 fWAR and 42.7 bWAR. 5x All Star. 5x World Series Champion Molina is at 55.6 fWAR, 42.1 bWAR. 10x All Star. 2x World Series Champion Honestly, with what feels like some dramatic tweaking recently, Joe Mauer should be an absolute lock. Posey with the awards is probably a lock as well... despite the much lower career bWAR. Only Mauer and Posey have the MVP cred of the group. Molina's 10 All Star appearances may get him in. Posada's 5 World Series Championships might get him in. McCann might have an outside shot, but Baseball Reference isn't kind to catcher value.

The Astros are going to make Verlander a QO, but it's unknown if Verlander will take it. Houston's owner has said Verlander is still looking for a multi-year deal of some significant length. Verlander has said he's never had a chance to test the free agent market so I think he's interested in doing that. Verlander will have 10 days to poke around the league in regard to interest after the QO is made by Houston before Verlander has to decide if he'll accept the offer.

Also, before people get too excited about Syndergaard, he followed Mets team physician orders to not throw a single breaking ball in the 2 games and 2 innings he pitched to finish the year. Syndergaard's velocity was down 3.5mph from his average in 2019 and 5mph from his peak in 2017. Coupled with the multiple setbacks he had, he's a little scary right now from a fans perspective. Obviously, I don't have access to his medical reports and any team signing him will so I'm sure that will go a long way towards clarity on offers he might get.

It's hard to play for Minnesota if you accept a qualifying offer with the Mets... Syndergaard made it clear he wants to be with the Mets and the language he has used suggests he not only wants, but would happily accept a qualifying offer. If the Mets don't make Syndergaard a qualifying offer, then it's off to the races, but considering they're going to already lose Stroman, they can't afford to lose Syndergaard, too.

So call him a #3 starter if it bends you out of shape. Of starters with 140+ innings pitched, Gray's 2.3 fWAR ranks him at 44 of 68 which would put him as a 4th starter by a linear percentage. Since Fangraphs defaults to "Qualified" you literallly had to change your settings making Min IP = 0 innings to manipulate your data set. You using pitchers with literally 0.1 innings pitched as a way to inflate Gray's performance is beyond misleading. FWIW, I'd say this was a pretty average year for Gray. His career ERA+ is 104. This past season, it was... 104. His career xFIP is 3.80, but it's trended up over the past 3 years at 3.89, 5.68 and 4.04 this season. The Twins need front of the rotation arms and that does not describe Gray, who will undoubtedly make a solid addition for a team who needs somebody to fill out the mid-back of their rotation.

Syndergaard is on record as hoping he stays with the Mets and based on his comments, he'd accept a qualifying offer so I can't see him in Minnesota at this point.

Running 2 miles with a completely ruptured ACL may be an example of that, though he said it didn't really hurt, haha.

I'm not interested in Gray. It's not surprising he's performed better at Coors as he's a 50% ground ball pitcher. The fly ball pitchers are the ones who get into trouble at Coors with baseballs that carry to the moon and back through the thin Denver air. Gray's struggles in 2020 are no doubt a realization of those splits where he dropped from a career 1.58:1 GB/FB rate to a 0.96 rate. Fly balls in Coors are bad news. I'd say Jon Gray is pretty similar to Kyle Gibson, but probably a little better. Pencil Gray in as a nice #4 starter. That said, the Twins don't need a #4 starter.

Lewis is undeniably the highest ceiling prospect in the Twins’ system. Drafted #1 overall with a collection of physical tools often boiled down to just “athleticism” but what that actually means is Lewis possesses elite speed, a strong arm, quick feet and raw power. Lewis also has the work ethic and attitude to succeed. Anybody having questions about Lewis’ professionalism or makeup can watch this clip from an interview posted on YouTube by MLB on March 5th, just shortly after Lewis’ ACL surgery. He’s more articulate, confident, charismatic and thoughtful than most MLB veterans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coBBWY0hlBI Here’s an awesome 45 minute USA Baseball interview with Royce Lewis from April of this year. It’s worth a watch, but as a warning, you’re going to come away from it pulling even harder for Lewis to succeed. Hard to believe it only had 70 views when I found it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooangyknwdg So it all sounds great on paper, but there are quite a few lingering questions about Lewis. The question I’ve seen concern about most recently on Twins Daily is whether the Twins expect Lewis to stick at shortstop. In specific, there are some scouts out there who aren’t sold on Lewis’ arm at shortstop and Lewis has really struggled with errors in his first season at short in the minors. So what’s the problem with his arm if it’s graded as a 60? According to scouting reports I’ve dug up and read closely, it’s his release. Lewis’ throws tend to have a long release or windup which offsets his actual strength and there’s questions about his throwing accuracy. In 2020’s alternate site, the Twins worked closely with Lewis to improve his throwing technique to address those issues. If you watched the latter video link above, Lewis makes it very clear the Twins are dead set on Lewis being a shortstop so whatever concerns there are about his arm seem to exist only outside the organization. The other question is about Lewis’ hit tool. Regardless of glowing scouting reports and athleticism, players have to ultimately put up the numbers at the plate worthy of promotion and playing time at the MLB level. Lewis’ hit tool has taken a huge beating over the past couple years. Lewis’ walk rate is poor and his strikeout rate is mediocre at best suggesting a poor eye at the plate and he had weak batting average and power numbers. Any of Lewis’ struggles are sometimes attributed to his exaggerated leg kick, and if you haven’t seen it, it’s massive. Leg kicks create problems when it comes to timing and Lewis’ leg kick is so early and large, it seems like it can put him in a position where he’s off balance when he needs to swing. Timing both the pitcher’s delivery and the pitch’s location and speed increases the difficulty of having success at the plate. But does a big leg kick have to be detrimental to a young player? Not at all. Royce Lewis has been quoted as being confident in his leg kick and positioning, but he understands people immediately turn to it because it’s unusual. If there’s one thing Twins fans who’ve followed our prospects know, a coaching staff having a player constantly fiddling with leg kicks makes a mess of young hitters. The Twins are also on record saying the leg kick is not a problem. Still, it’s the target of amateur batting coaches everywhere. So how about that big leg kick being impossible for success? Let’s compare. A 23 year old Blue Jays All Star shortstop named Bo Bichette to our own 22 year old top prospect shortstop Royce Lewis. Bichette on the left and Lewis on the right. Bichette generates most of his big power from his corkscrew approach, winding up his core so that his back angles towards the pitcher, and that approach is particularly problematic for timing and hit tools, but he makes it work because he keeps his balance and his shoulders and arms stay level. Lewis’ leg kick is very similar to Bichette, but Lewis’ mechanics are more simple and don’t involve the big corkscrew windup. Lewis’ swing has been called messy with too many moving components making it inconsistent. If you look at the images, though, you can see there isn’t a ton of extra noise and the Twins have been continuing to work with Lewis on his approach including the 2020 alternate site, though the high hands required Lewis to add movement before the swing both down and in the opposite direction of his swing beforehand. Keep in mind, the GIFs I created show Bichette this year and Lewis 2 years ago. Regardless, Bichette is All Star proof the leg kick can work just fine, even for a young player. So if the leg kick isn’t preventing Lewis’ success, what’s wrong? Where are the results? Well, he was age 20 in AA and he only had 148 plate appearances at the level in the last season Lewis played, not to mention Lewis ripped the cover off the ball later that year at the Arizona Fall League to the tune of .353/.411/.565 OPS .975 in 95 plate appearances. When dealing with small sample sizes for a young player who is making adjustments, struggling can be part of the game. After all, the approach and adjustments are the most important part, not the end result. That said… I feel like the AFL is more tuned towards performance and getting experience than adjustments the coaching staff might make during the minor league season and Lewis absolutely produced and impressed there, just like you’d expect of a top prospect. The linked scouting report breaks Lewis down quite a bit and provides some insight into his troubles at the plate. https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/royce-lewis “Shows an eye for the zone but does not want to walk; passive approach early in counts may play against him, yielding poor strikeouts and walks both.” Of course, the same scouting report attacks the leg kick, but if we’re to believe the leg kick isn’t the issue, Lewis has some significant room to improve with his approach at the plate to balance his aggression. That kind of thing can just come with experience… unless your name is NLCS MVP Eddie Rosario… When it comes down to it, there is no prospect in the system with more potential to be a super star or who causes more anxiety with Twins fans than Royce Lewis. If any prospect has the character, work ethic and physical skills to make it all work, Lewis fits the bill. 2022 is unbelievably important for Lewis and his development. Here’s hoping the young prospect recovers fully from his ACL surgery, doesn’t lose a step and shows all the work at the alternate site and in the classroom pay off big time. The Twins could sure use an MLB caliber shortstop sooner than later and I’m sure nothing would please Lewis more than to prove he’s got what it takes.

All hail the hot dog keyboard!!!!! haha

I'm okay with all the grades here. They all seem pretty fair.

I'd agree Astudillo shouldn't be noted here. He played 1 game in right field, going 6 innings before being moved to catcher on June 1st. Putting Astudillo in the outfield is a receipe for disaster.

Yes. I believe the Twins are going to bring him back as the every day shortstop and I think Simmons will likely be even worse.

Doesn't mean much to us, but it meant a lot to the Blue Jays fans who were disgruntled, haha. It really robbed them of their inertia. I have high hopes for Martin and Woods-Richardson and I continue to like the the trade given the Twins' situation.

Wallner has big power, it's just a question of whether or not his eye at the plate will play. The AFL seems to be somewhere between A+ and AA competition level in my opinion. Since Wallner has 40 grade speed, he's going to need to rake in order to provide any value at the MLB level. Right now, Wallner is .278/.400/.611 OPS 1.011 with a 13.3% BB and 35.6% K rate and a .333 BABIP. Calculating BABIP (46PA - 2HBP - 6BB - 16K - 4HR = 18 balls in play) and (10H - 4HR = 6 hits in play). I typically view the AFL as just experience with the expectation of high performance in the AFL, but without the expectation that high performance will carry into AA or higher. Poor performances at the AFL can be sample size or maybe a sign coaches are having them work on something in specific, but I think it's a lot more problematic for older prospects (24+) like most of the Twins represented here. Sisk, Featherstone, Funderburk, Bechtold and Helman are all 24-25 and they should be dominant in the AFL if they have what it takes to move ahead.

Garver will be near $80-100MM if he plays the next two years healthy as he'll be in the conversation for best catcher in MLB and he'll be a free agent after 2023. The only thing which will hold him under $125MM is his age at a33 to start free agency due to the Twins mishandling him and unfair baseball control rules. Of course, Garver being healthy seems to have about the same likelihood as Buxton being healthy.

It only matters if the disgruntled fans stop spending on the team and that loss of spending is greater than the increase in spending by the fans who bought Berrios jerseys etc. You can't please everybody.

EXACTLY THIS. The Vikings are in the same boat. I really don't follow the NFL. Between gun charges, drug charges, assault charges, $120 tickets for nosebleed seats and the Vikings never really going all-in, I just got fed up with the lack of commitment to a championship caliber team. The Twins are right there as well with me. They don't want to win a championship, they want to play over .500 and hope they get lucky enough to win a division or make the playoffs. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/11/01/its-time-for-the-just-good-enough-vikings-to-say-enough/

If the Twins trade Garver, I'd wager they'll look to add a decent veteran starting catcher in free agency. Jeffers and Rortvedt just didn't take advantage of their opportunities to prove they could be counted on as starters at the MLB level.

Yep, at the time Jays fans felt like the team gave up too much. That feeling lasted for all of about 3 weeks. It was a steep price for the Blue Jays to have paid, but watching Martin ice over for a month and Woods-Richardson basically fail to pitch the rest of the year along with Berrios pitching very well for them and the close playoff chance made up for all of it. Even if Martin and Woods-Richardson do turn into something great, all the Blue Jays need is one World Series and none of it even matters.

Not top of the rotation pitchers, that's for sure, and that's what the Twins need. Teams are so loathe to give up potential high end starters in AA or higher it might be tough to move Arraez for top 50 pitching without including another high upside arm from the Twins.

Agreed with this take on "Go For It" The Blue Jays got some flak on this board for being out of their minds going in on the Berrios trade and they only missed the playoffs by 1 game. While the season ended in a disappointing fashion by just barely missing the playoffs, it was pretty clear Blue Jays fans didn't regret going for it.

They didn't agree on incentives. The Twins were supposedly north of $100MM with incentives, but while Buxton was okay with the guaranteed portion, he wanted a different incentive package. No real details of the incentive package were ever disclosed. Increasing the base guaranteed wage from $11.4MM to $16.8MM and shortening the length to 5 years allowing Buxton to enter free agency at 33 (assuming year 1 of the contract replaces next year) wouldn't likely be laughed off.